ImageImageImageImage

Expansion Draft Overview

Moderator: Texas Chuck

User avatar
Otis Driftwood
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,488
And1: 1,970
Joined: Feb 25, 2015
Contact:
       

Expansion Draft Overview 

Post#1 » by Otis Driftwood » Sat May 6, 2017 4:42 pm

As always - Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News with an excellent overview of what the Stars may be considering going into the Expansion Draft...

Defensemen

One of the biggest questions for the Stars this summer is who do they protect on defense in the expansion draft. Teams are allowed to protect three defensemen, and the Stars will definitely list John Klingberg and Esa Lindell. That means they have to choose between Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen Johns and Patrik Nemeth and protect just one.

Hamhuis is 34 and has one year left on his contract, so the odds are the Golden Knights won't be picking him. The odds also are that they won't take a chance on the inconsistent Nemeth, who played just 40 games last season.

That means you have to choose between Johns and Oleksiak, each of whom could be taken.

Oleksiak is an interesting figure, as he seems to finally be reaching the point where he could become a regular defenseman. Drafted 14th overall in 2011, Oleksiak is now 24. While playing mostly in the NHL for the past two seasons, he has logged just 60 games. He's missed four weeks with a hand injury, but like Patrik Nemeth and Stephen Johns, Oleksiak has had a lot of healthy scratches.

How he has handled those scratches might be why the team would consider protecting him in the expansion draft. Oleksiak found a calm place and showed consistency coming in and out of the lineup. Coaches praised him for his improvement throughout the season and it seemed Oleksiak had beaten out Johns and Nemeth before he suffered the hand injury in January. That's why you get the feeling the Stars will protect him over Johns in the expansion draft.

Still, coaches chose to use him only 16:14 a game in his 41 appearances, two minutes less per game than Johns. That ranks ninth among the 10 defensemen who played this season. Only Nemeth averaged fewer minutes at 15:46.

Oleksiak has impressive physical tools, as he's listed at 6-7, 255 and is a good skater. However, he ranked ninth on the team in hits per game at 1.2 and eighth on the team in blocked shots per game at 1.3. And both of those stats seem to be important to a defensive defenseman. Johns averaged 2.6 in hits and 2.1 in blocked shots.

Oleksiak's minus-14 in SAT (shot attempts at even strength) also was far below that of Johns' plus-42.

The numbers say you should protect Johns and possibly trade Oleksiak. Or just allow Oleksiak to be exposed and hope for the best. Still, management likes a lot of the intangibles with Oleksiak.


Forwards

Dallas' expected sure thing forwards to protect are: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza and Radek Faksa. The general consensus is they will protect Brett Ritchie and Valeri Nichushkin, because of their potential as young wingers. That means the last spot could come down to Antoine Roussel or Cody Eakin.

It's easy to say Eakin is too valuable an asset to let go. He has been a top minute guy among forwards and he seems to be a player other teams would covet. In fact, new Vegas GM George McPhee drafted Eakin in 2009 when he was with the Capitals, so there is a thought you would lose Eakin if you don't protect him.

However, isn't Roussel just as tempting a get? The 27-year-old has averaged 13 goals and 28 points for four straight seasons. He's an extremely consistent and dependable player. In addition, he has done a great job of giving each line energy and grit. He's skilled enough to play beside Tyler Seguin, which he did successfully this past season, and tough enough to play beside Adam Cracknell.

He has one year left on his deal at $2.4 million, so he's pretty affordable, too.

And maybe the most important aspect Roussel brings to the Stars is his locker room presence. Yes, he can be over the top on the ice and either take foolish penalties or possibly get the refs going against you, but he definitely brings passion and emotion to every game.

That's something the Stars desperately needed last season, and likely will need going forward.

Leaving Roussel unprotected is definitely an option for the Stars, as they have a young replacement waiting in Remi Elie and also might need to find minutes for returning players like Mattias Janmark (knee injury) and possibly Valeri Nichushkin (KHL). If you're looking long-term, Jason Dickinson and Denis Gurianov also are knocking on the door and could need some of Roussel's ice time.

The Stars could very well shop both Eakin and Roussel and protect the one they don't trade, meaning that Curtis McKenzie and Cracknell would be the most desirable of their unprotected forwards.


Goalies

Maybe the most intriguing part of the entire expansion draft is how it will affect the goalie market. Because every team can protect just one goalie, and because several teams have two solid goalies, there is going to be an environment where several goalies will be tossed into trade talk that wouldn't have been mentioned in past seasons.

Dallas has Kari Lehtonen ($5.9 million in cap hit and $5 million in actual salary) and Antti Niemi ($4.5 million in both cap hit and salary) under contract for one more season each, and appears ready to shake things up in net. That means it wouldn't mind losing either to Vegas in expansion. If the Golden Knights took either goalie, Dallas would not only have the opportunity to get out of the contract, it would fulfill its obligation in the expansion draft and wouldn't have to lose another player.

As such, that's not expected to happen.

What could happen because of that scenario is the Stars could acquire a goalie before June 17 and then protect that goalie ahead of Lehtonen and Niemi. The reason teams like the Rangers, Capitals and Penguins are in trouble is because they have two goalies and can protect just one. But the market for trading those goalies is limited because the team that acquires one of those goalies has to be able to protect him.

Right now, the list of teams that can do that is probably: Dallas, Calgary, Colorado, Detroit and Philadelphia. The attractive goalies who could be left exposed include: Joonas Korpisalo of Columbus, Antti Raanta of the Rangers, Philipp Grubauer of Washington, and one of Pittsburgh's two goalies - Matt Murray or Marc-Andre Fleury.

Murray won the Cup last year for the Penguins and is just 22. But he is hurt right now, and Fleury, 32, has been fantastic in the playoffs. Fleury has a no-movement clause and has to be protected in the expansion draft. That means the Penguins will almost assuredly trade one of their goalies before June 17.

So, will the Stars take advantage of the rare opportunity the expansion draft will present in terms of goalies or will it simply buy out Niemi, keep Lehtonen, and sign a free agent like Ben Bishop of Steve Mason?

Whatever happens, there needs to be change. Because right now, it sure looks like they don't need to protect either goalie in the expansion draft, because the expansion team has no interest in either.

That's a pretty sobering place to be.

Dallas Morning News
"I've had a perfectly wonderful evening, but this wasn't it."
User avatar
Otis Driftwood
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,488
And1: 1,970
Joined: Feb 25, 2015
Contact:
       

Re: Expansion Draft Overview 

Post#2 » by Otis Driftwood » Tue May 9, 2017 9:52 pm

If nothing else - the Stars improved their goalie situation incrementally.
Read on Twitter
"I've had a perfectly wonderful evening, but this wasn't it."

Return to Dallas Stars