The Tim Connelly Model: From Denver to Minnesota

[Klomp]

Watch on YouTube

Cliff notes from Segment 1: I think he likes the group as constructed, so not sure we should expect mega changes, but emotional maturity was the key to the 2022-23 season.

[Biff Cooper]

Barreiro didn't hit him up with too hard of questions. Good stuff though. I kind of get the "feeling" our ownership is willing to go into the lux tax this season to re-sign Naz, NAW, a MLE free agent, and possibly even Nowell.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Barreiro didn't hit him up with too hard of questions. Good stuff though. I kind of get the "feeling" our ownership is willing to go into the lux tax this season to re-sign Naz, NAW, a MLE free agent, and possibly even Nowell.

If they feel like they sidestep the financial crunch, then I'm not vehemently opposed to letting it ride one more year to see what happens. I'd still hope they would at least send out strong feelers to gauge what's possible for a KAT, or maybe even a Gobert trade. Also not sure how they'd talk Naz into coming back, but it'd be great. At the start of the year though when everyone was healthy, Naz could barely even get on the court some nights. If you could do something like that Sixers fan suggested - Melton for SloMo - then the roster makes a bit more sense. Or move Prince and play SloMo at SF a lot more, but that's a perimeter defense waiting to be exploited.

I guess we'll have to see, but I still think a KAT move makes the most sense for both financial and roster construction reasons. I'm completely comfortable with a Gobert/Naz/SloMo trio for the frontcourt. Naz/Jaden/Ant the long-term pieces, so just need a long-term PF and PG prospect. Blazers, Hornets, and Rockets are all teams in flux for a variety of reasons, and have some potential prospects and picks that could fill those holes. If they're being hard asses and won't negotiate fair deals, then I understand running it back. But if you can get a little bit of a bidding war going and get a nice return, I think we should strike now.

[Biff Cooper]

I guess we'll have to see, but I still think a KAT move makes the most sense for both financial and roster construction reasons.

Obviously, the roster as constructed is far too heavy at talent, salary, and playing time at the center position. If we re-sign Naz to a significant contract, it does not improve that situation. I just have trouble envisioning anything that makes sense for both the Timberwolves and the opponents.

[TimberKat]

I guess we'll have to see, but I still think a KAT move makes the most sense for both financial and roster construction reasons.

Obviously, the roster as constructed is far too heavy at talent, salary, and playing time at the center position. If we re-sign Naz to a significant contract, it does not improve that situation. I just have trouble envisioning anything that makes sense for both the Timberwolves and the opponents.

We have to get off the center mindset. Naz is a power forward. Towns is a in-between guy (I supposed that is how he changed the game). Gobert is the only true (or limited to) center. Naz is a backup and a good one. There is no team that will paid Naz as a starter. He is still below Zubac.

[Klomp]

It's easy for people to get too caught up on instantly reacting to a move and end up unfairly judging it prematurely. Everyone hated the Michael Porter Jr extension when it happened, but I don't think anyone is saying it's a negative contract any longer.

This is why I wouldn't rule out Minnesota ponying up the money for Reid, for example. I think there will immediately be skeptics at how much he may get paid, but over the life of the deal I wouldn't worry about the 23-year old proving his worth.

A 27-year old Bobby Portis signed a 4/48 deal in 2022 as a backup big in Milwaukee (roughly 9% of cap, starting at $10,843,350). That cap percentage equates to around $12.25M starting point for Reid, which I actually feel would be a little bit of a lowball for the 23-year old.

[shrink]

It's easy for people to get too caught up on instantly reacting to a move and end up unfairly judging it prematurely. Everyone hated the Michael Porter Jr extension when it happened, but I don't think anyone is saying it's a negative contract any longer.

This is why I wouldn't rule out Minnesota ponying up the money for Reid, for example. I think there will immediately be skeptics at how much he may get paid, but over the life of the deal I wouldn't worry about the 23-year old proving his worth.

It’s especially true for Connelly.

The impression he had as a GM for years was that he was one of the best at identifying talent, but his knock was that he got too attached to his players, kept them around too long and overpaid them a bit on their second deals.

I wonder if the success of DEN with its stability makes people no longer see his knock as a bad thing. In any regard, for those that want Naz back, he’s more likely to do it than most GMs, which matches up with everything we hear, about working all year to try to get him to stay.

[shrink]

I guess we'll have to see, but I still think a KAT move makes the most sense for both financial and roster construction reasons.

Obviously, the roster as constructed is far too heavy at talent, salary, and playing time at the center position. If we re-sign Naz to a significant contract, it does not improve that situation. I just have trouble envisioning anything that makes sense for both the Timberwolves and the opponents.

We have to get off the center mindset. Naz is a power forward.

Are we sure about that? Can he guard today’s PFs?

In his three previous seasons, his numbers when he played alongside a center were very bad. This year, he had a good run in the games at the end of the season, and his body is certainly lighter, but I’m still on the fence about calling him a PF. Hopefully people can convince me.

[Klomp]

Are we sure about that? Can he guard today’s PFs?

In his three previous seasons, his numbers when he played alongside a center were very bad. This year, he had a good run in the games at the end of the season, and his body is certainly lighter, but I’m still on the fence about calling him a PF. Hopefully people can convince me.

I think this goes back to the prematurely judging thing...

For one thing, adjusting to such a big weight change can be difficult. I know it wasn't immediate, but he lost 30-40 pounds over time. That changes how a player moves, and even though it's a change for the better it still commands an adjustment period.

Add to that the change in defense. I don't want any overarching decisions to be made based on the first month of the season. We saw growth as the year went on, and what we saw at the end from him should be the closest to what we should expect from him at PF in this defensive system.

[Klomp]

Cliff notes from Segment 1: I think he likes the group as constructed, so not sure we should expect mega changes, but emotional maturity was the key to the 2022-23 season.

In today's predraft press scrum, Connelly noted that maturity and age aren't necessarily tied together.

Note: This wasn't in regards to Towns. He was talking about the difference between drafting more experienced college players late in the draft while the first round usually has a lot of college freshmen.

Watch on YouTube

[TimberKat]

Are we sure about that? Can he guard today’s PFs?

In his three previous seasons, his numbers when he played alongside a center were very bad. This year, he had a good run in the games at the end of the season, and his body is certainly lighter, but I’m still on the fence about calling him a PF. Hopefully people can convince me.

I think this goes back to the prematurely judging thing...

For one thing, adjusting to such a big weight change can be difficult. I know it wasn't immediate, but he lost 30-40 pounds over time. That changes how a player moves, and even though it's a change for the better it still commands an adjustment period.

Add to that the change in defense. I don't want any overarching decisions to be made based on the first month of the season. We saw growth as the year went on, and what we saw at the end from him should be the closest to what we should expect from him at PF in this defensive system.

I see Naz had a hard time guarding centers in his new weight class. I supposed we can view him as backup center and Towns full time at pfd. If all 3 are centers than someone is going to get traded. Really depends on how Finch wants to work the rotation - Towns/Gobert mostly same time or least same time. Naz will be one the floor with Gobert or Towns accordingly.

[BlacJacMac]

It's easy for people to get too caught up on instantly reacting to a move and end up unfairly judging it prematurely. Everyone hated the Michael Porter Jr extension when it happened, but I don't think anyone is saying it's a negative contract any longer.

I do. If he's not hitting jumpers, he's really quite horrible. They won the finals despite him.

My guess is he's the guy that Denver tries to dump on an unsuspecting franchise as their salary continues to grow.

[fattymcgee]

It's easy for people to get too caught up on instantly reacting to a move and end up unfairly judging it prematurely. Everyone hated the Michael Porter Jr extension when it happened, but I don't think anyone is saying it's a negative contract any longer.

I do. If he's not hitting jumpers, he's really quite horrible. They won the finals despite him.

My guess is he's the guy that Denver tries to dump on an unsuspecting franchise as their salary continues to grow.

I don't know if I go so far to call him horrible, but he's definitely not worth a max contract.

[shrink]

Are we sure about that? Can he guard today’s PFs?

In his three previous seasons, his numbers when he played alongside a center were very bad. This year, he had a good run in the games at the end of the season, and his body is certainly lighter, but I’m still on the fence about calling him a PF. Hopefully people can convince me.

I think this goes back to the prematurely judging thing...

For one thing, adjusting to such a big weight change can be difficult. I know it wasn't immediate, but he lost 30-40 pounds over time. That changes how a player moves, and even though it's a change for the better it still commands an adjustment period.

Add to that the change in defense. I don't want any overarching decisions to be made based on the first month of the season. We saw growth as the year went on, and what we saw at the end from him should be the closest to what we should expect from him at PF in this defensive system.

I heard today that in a few hundred minutes with Gobert, the pair had a -10 Net Rtg.

I agree that this year his body is different, and I would never count against Naz’ work ethic to learn to become a PF. But right now, I don’t think he is a PF, or at least, a successful PF.

[minimus]

I wonder how many ex DEN players around NBA have good connection with TC, and might come here via trade or FA market:

Monte Morris
Bones Hyland
PJ Dozier
???


Forgot about Beasley and Vanderbilt lol