BREAKING: Timberwolves restructure with Tim Connelly

[KGdaBom]

Which... makes things worse? It makes it seem like a desperation heave. We shouldn't be in this position to begin with.

This whole situation reads as oh no I **** up now I'm in the hole, gotta burn more to get back to 0.

if we win a title in the next few years i'm honestly not going to give a damn about that pick.

And if we don't?

If Dilly sucks it was a bad trade even if we just gave up a 2nd round pick 7 years from now. Let's hope and believe that Connelly wasn't an idiot and he won't suck. Let's hope and believe we aren't giving up the #2 overall in a pick swap in 2030 and the #1 overall in 2031. Those are incredibly unlikely. You are looking for ways to hate on the trade. How about What if Dilly is the best player in the NBA by then. Just as likely.

[shrink]

if we win a title in the next few years i'm honestly not going to give a damn about that pick.

I agree. Banners fly forever. And with the success from the Gobert trade, those future picks also changed the national narrative of the Wolves as constant stupid losers.

But battling our way out of a tough Western Conference right now, and beating the Eastern Conference Champ, is no small thing.

[KGdaBom]

Which... makes things worse? It makes it seem like a desperation heave. We shouldn't be in this position to begin with.

This whole situation reads as oh no I **** up now I'm in the hole, gotta burn more to get back to 0.

A first round pick 7 years from now for the 8 overall now is the lowest risk trade I have ever seen in my life. Of all the trades I have ever seen this one has the lowest risk. Could it go wrong? Of course every trade can go wrong.

Trades that can go wrong for unprotected picks have the most potential to go the farthest wrong.

BOS just won a title with distant future picks from the Nets in the 2013 KG Pierce trade.

2016 1st Round Draft Pick (to be Jaylen Brown)
2017 1st Round Draft Pick (to be Jayson Tatum)
2018 1st Round Draft Pick (used to trade for Kyrie Irving)

It’s a high risk, high return move. I hope Dillingham and Connelly make it worthwhile

Were those picks 7 years down the road. Sure if the Spurs get the #2 overall in 2030 and the #1 overall in 2031 great trade for the Spurs and Connelly was an idiot. The chances of that are incredibly low therefore it's low risk.

[Note30]

if we win a title in the next few years i'm honestly not going to give a damn about that pick.

And if we don't?

If Dilly sucks it was a bad trade even if we just gave up a 2nd round pick 7 years from now. Let's hope and believe that Connelly wasn't and idiot and he won't suck. Let's hope and believe we aren't giving up the #2 overall in a pick swap in 2030 and the #1 overall in 2031. Those are incredibly unlikely. You are looking for ways to hate on the trade. How about What if Dilly is the best player in the NBA by then. Just as likely.

He's a complete unknown. Draft picks more often go bust than boom. This was considered an extremely weak draft class.

I hope Rob is the next coming of Damian Lillard.

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

Here are the NBA number 8 draft picks for the past ten years:

2023: Jarace Walker - Indiana Pacers (traded to the Washington Wizards)
2022: Dyson Daniels - New Orleans Pelicans
2021: Franz Wagner - Orlando Magic
2020: Obi Toppin - New York Knicks
2019: Jaxson Hayes - New Orleans Pelicans (traded to the Atlanta Hawks)
2018: Collin Sexton - Cleveland Cavaliers
2017: Frank Ntilikina - New York Knicks
2016: Marquese Chriss - Sacramento Kings (traded to the Phoenix Suns)
2015: Stanley Johnson - Detroit Pistons
2014: Nik Stauskas - Sacramento Kings

This is the past ten years. Two of those guys are starters in the NBA still, neither are All Stars

[Zonarosa]

Which... makes things worse? It makes it seem like a desperation heave. We shouldn't be in this position to begin with.

This whole situation reads as oh no I **** up now I'm in the hole, gotta burn more to get back to 0.

if we win a title in the next few years i'm honestly not going to give a damn about that pick.

And if we don't?

then we don't. but id rather they augment the roster now to contend with the vets we have in place than just allow themselves to be constrained by the new limitations while wasting what's left of conley and gobert. if they get to the finals and fail before they ride off into the sunset, so be it. there's a young core growing behind them.

[Note30]

if we win a title in the next few years i'm honestly not going to give a damn about that pick.

And if we don't?

then we don't. but id rather they augment the roster now to contend with the vets we have in place than just allow themselves to be constrained by the new limitations while wasting what's left of conley and gobert. if they get to the finals and fail before they ride off into the sunset, so be it. there's a young core growing behind them.

Well then we fundamentally disagree in principle.

[shrink]

We probably are just looking at risk differently.

It looks to me like you are saying that the chance we gave up less than we got is very good, and I tend to agree. If Dillingham is as good as I hope, maybe there is an 80% chance we win the trade. However, in that 20% of losses, it’s possible that the losses are extreme. Now, we’d have to have three things all come true - the team is bad, we win a top spot in the lottery and in 2030 or 2031, there’s a Wemby-like talent. For all three of those to happen is very improbable. But distant unprotected picks to me are automatically very risky.

[KGdaBom]

And if we don't?

If Dilly sucks it was a bad trade even if we just gave up a 2nd round pick 7 years from now. Let's hope and believe that Connelly wasn't and idiot and he won't suck. Let's hope and believe we aren't giving up the #2 overall in a pick swap in 2030 and the #1 overall in 2031. Those are incredibly unlikely. You are looking for ways to hate on the trade. How about What if Dilly is the best player in the NBA by then. Just as likely.

He's a complete unknown. Draft picks more often go bust than boom. This was considered an extremely weak draft class.

I hope Rob is the next coming of Damian Lillard.

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

We traded a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now for #8 overall this year. I would say Dilly is much more known than the swap and the pick. Connelly believes in him or he wouldn't have made the trade. Could it go wrong? Of course.

[Note30]

If Dilly sucks it was a bad trade even if we just gave up a 2nd round pick 7 years from now. Let's hope and believe that Connelly wasn't and idiot and he won't suck. Let's hope and believe we aren't giving up the #2 overall in a pick swap in 2030 and the #1 overall in 2031. Those are incredibly unlikely. You are looking for ways to hate on the trade. How about What if Dilly is the best player in the NBA by then. Just as likely.

He's a complete unknown. Draft picks more often go bust than boom. This was considered an extremely weak draft class.

I hope Rob is the next coming of Damian Lillard.

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

We traded a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now for #8 overall this year. I would say Dilly is much more known than the swap and the pick. Connelly believes in him or he wouldn't have made the trade. Could it go wrong? Of course.

Do you think GMs are making selections in players they don't believe in?

What?

[Zonarosa]

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

"missing piece" is misleading.

he should fill a needed gap in the short-term.

he's the kind of player i had hoped nowell would turn into, only with a much higher ceiling.

[Note30]

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

"missing piece" is misleading.

he should fill a needed gap in the short-term.

he's the kind of player i had hoped nowell would turn into, only with a much higher ceiling.

If he's not a starting PG, that's a pretty big trade for a backup.

[Klomp]

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

"missing piece" is misleading.

he should fill a needed gap in the short-term.

he's the kind of player i had hoped nowell would turn into, only with a much higher ceiling.

If he's not a starting PG, that's a pretty big trade for a backup.

Also keep in mind that we are in jeopardy of potentially losing the 6MOY in a year. A 6th man is an extension of your starting lineup. If he turns int Manu Ginobili or Jamal Crawford, you're saying it would be a bad pick because they gave up too much for a backup?!

[Zonarosa]

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

"missing piece" is misleading.

he should fill a needed gap in the short-term.

he's the kind of player i had hoped nowell would turn into, only with a much higher ceiling.

If he's not a starting PG, that's a pretty big trade for a backup.

of course it's the hope that he's the long-term solution next to edwards. we'll see what happens.

let's go this way...to you, what was the team missing the most last season? some said more shooting, but to me on a larger scale it was just more bench scoring. if they weren't getting buckets off of turnovers, it was a struggle to score at all. nobody off the bench was really consistently putting pressure on a defense. when the deep ball ran hot, it ran really hot. when it went cold...look at the dallas series. ideally i wanted someone like clarkson...or what we hoped nowell would be. without money to spend and more restrictive terms on trades, where was that going to come from?

that *should* be dillingham in the short term. added to a 56-win team.

for a 1st 7 years in the future? go get it.

[KGdaBom]

We probably are just looking at risk differently.

It looks to me like you are saying that the chance we gave up less than we got is very good, and I tend to agree. If Dillingham is as good as I hope, maybe there is an 80% chance we win the trade. However, in that 20% of losses, it’s possible that the losses are extreme. Now, we’d have to have three things all come true - the team is bad, we win a top spot in the lottery and in 2030 or 2031, there’s a Wemby-like talent. For all three of those to happen is very improbable. But distant unprotected picks to me are automatically very risky.

Yep. In the most catastrophic convergence of events our loss could be huge. The chances of that are about the same as getting struck by lightning or winning the lottery (hyperbole). No risk means no reward. I'll take the chance.

[KGdaBom]

if we win a title in the next few years i'm honestly not going to give a damn about that pick.

I agree. Banners fly forever. And with the success from the Gobert trade, those future picks also changed the national narrative of the Wolves as constant stupid losers.

But battling our way out of a tough Western Conference right now, and beating the Eastern Conference Champ, is no small thing.

That's why we need Dilly.

[KGdaBom]

He's a complete unknown. Draft picks more often go bust than boom. This was considered an extremely weak draft class.

I hope Rob is the next coming of Damian Lillard.

It also says something that we're hoping a 19 year old was the missing piece to the puzzle.

We traded a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now for #8 overall this year. I would say Dilly is much more known than the swap and the pick. Connelly believes in him or he wouldn't have made the trade. Could it go wrong? Of course.

Do you think GMs are making selections in players they don't believe in?

What?

Nope.

[KGdaBom]

"missing piece" is misleading.

he should fill a needed gap in the short-term.

he's the kind of player i had hoped nowell would turn into, only with a much higher ceiling.

If he's not a starting PG, that's a pretty big trade for a backup.

Also keep in mind that we are in jeopardy of potentially losing the 6MOY in a year. A 6th man is an extension of your starting lineup. If he turns int Manu Ginobili or Jamal Crawford, you're saying it would be a bad pick because they gave up too much for a backup?!

If he goes that way I would prefer Manu, but Lou Williams would be more likely. Let him be Iverson.

[shrink]

I am definitely a fan of Tim Connelly, even with a lackluster free agency. Here’s his history:

Draft: Wendell Moore Jr, Josh Minott, Leonard Miller, Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon. We’ll see. Granted all but Dillingham were late picks, but the first three never pushed their way into even the rotation. These guys may emerge eventually, but Connelly’s draft success hasn’t happened here yet - much was in DEN

Free Agency: Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes, Austin Rivers, Troy Brown Jr, Shake Milton, Joe Ingles, Luka Garza, PJ Dozier. Anderson’s first year may mark him as the best FA pick up in MIN’s history, but his second year was worse, and he’s gone now. The rest of the group really only saw the end of the bench.

Trades: Gobert, Conley, Monte Morris, Dillingham. The Conley trade is a clear winner. The Morris trade helped provide insurance at a cheap cost. I like the Gobert and Dillingham trades, but they SHOULD improve the team, when you float that much future draft capital and payroll into improvement!

I like Connelly a lot, and I think those Gobert and Mike Conley trades were already worthwhile for simply changing the national narrative about the franchise. But if any owner gives their GM the opportunity to trade that many future picks and is willing to go so far into the lux, almost any GM is going to be able to make big improvements. Good GM, but he needs to show me he can make deals that increase the value of the franchise, rather than simply borrow against it’s future.