Is this teams ceiling higher than last year?

[guest81]

I am one to think that this year's team if playing up to their full potential is better than last year's teams.

Last year's team was a better defensive team no doubt about that. They also had a much higher floor which is why they had more wins then this year's team.

Ant is better this year than last year.

Bench is much better if your swapping out slow mo for donte and Clark

Randle isn't as good as Towns was but I think will be more consistent in the playoffs. You won't get a short circuit game from Randle like you would from kat. Also this team is way less reliant on Randle this year than kat last year.

The big arguments against it would be that Gobert and Conley aren't as good as they were last year. Gobert was overall, probably the best player for the Wolves in last year's run.

Also the fact that although they weren't the best clutch team last year, they are terrible this year. They haven't really had to worry about it recently, but you're going to have to win close games in the playoffs. It's what ended up doing them in last year

[Loaf_of_bread]

No, we win a few games in a row and all of a sudden fans are hyped.

We were throwing down last year, all year. Decent chance we stay hot.. no one wants to see us in the playoffs, but imo calm down a bit for now..

[winforlose]

Floor and ceiling are hard to compare. Last year when Karl and Mike were bringing their A games and playoff Ant and Jaden were in effect we were the best in the league. When Ant landed wrong in game 6, and Karl had his knee fallen into in games 5 and 7 against Denver, we lost a step. If Karl had been healthy and Ant not, I think we beat the Mavs. If Ant had been healthy and Karl not, I think we beat the Mavs. Also remember that Mike was banged up in the Nuggets series (missed game 4 or 5,) and wasn’t 100% against Dallas either.

This years Wolves are less top heavy. They turned KAT into DDV and Randle. But, we have seen different players have a bad game every night since getting everyone back. Having 7 legit scoring threats and only one ball is naturally tough to balance. Moreover, NAW, Mike, and Clark all very inconsistent offensively. Jaden and Naz are more variable than I would prefer as well. Overall I would say Jaden has raised the teams floor, but we have yet to see the true ceiling. Playoff Ant, DDV, Jaden, and Randle should all be better than what we are getting now.


Looking big picture, we are less balanced and weaker defensively so I don’t think we are naturally better than last year. We are far more dependent on making our 3s and far more susceptible to being destroyed in a quarter.

[TimberKat]

I think the ceiling is higher but doesn't mean we are better. Randle could be as good as Towns in the playoffs (since Towns wasn't great in the playoffs). We have more wing depth and guard depth than last year with DDV, Clark, and TSJ, better plays from JMcD and NAW. That is greater or cancel the decline of Gobert and Conley. Ant should be better this year.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I think deep make the difference. We are more deep. Being healthy will also be the Key. As Winforlose say, last year we weren't 100% for the final run. This could make a difference. I'm optimistic we can be at least as last year level which will be huge.

[younggunsmn]

Uh no. Not even close.
KAT to Randle is a massive downgrade on both sides of the ball.
Depth is worse, especially at Center and PG where we are paper thin.
Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards.
Rudy and Mike both worse.

Jaden is a better player this year, and Dante gives us more offensively than Slo Mo did.
But that doesn't make up for the rest.
TJ and Dillingham have the potential to raise our ceiling, but they are both a long ways away, especially Dillingham.

[frankenwolf]

IS the ceiling higher? No, I thought last years team could win it all. This years team, right now, I'm not as sure about. However, if we keep the core of Ant, Naz, DDV, Jaden and this years rookies take a step up over the nest two years, it could be equal to last years team. My concern over the next three years is - What to do about Rudy. The Wolves don't have anybody who can step into what he does ( or even close to it). They might not need a Gobert equivalent, but they do need someone that teams respect for rim protection.

[TheZachAttack]

The way I have described it (and I thought this immediately when the trade was made) is that last year's team had an elite punch, but could only play one way. That punch was more or less effective based on the other team's playstyle. If the Wolves needed to play another way, they were in trouble.

This year's team doesn't have a style of play that is as elite as that punch last year, but is better equipped to win in multiple ways against multiple types of teams. During a playoff run, you will have to play different types of teams. I think this year's Wolves team is more likely to be able to make a deep playoff run, but less likely to dominate a series like they did last year.

I think last year the achilles heel was that we could only win one way and this year we don't have something that we are head and shoulders better in the league at, but we are more multiple and can do multiple things and bring multiple looks. I think because of this we're harder to fine tune as a team but the potential is higher if you can stay fine tuned and pull the right strings -- the Wolves are capable of more. Last years team was easier to be consistent, but didn't have answers if other teams had answers for the type of game they wanted to play.

[thinktank]

Yes.

OFFENSE & BALL MOVEMENT IS WAY BETTER THIS YEAR. SURPRISE!
Randle + DDV value > KAT value
Gobert still pretty dang good
Conley actually playing well right now
McDaniels looks even better than last year
NAW is better--lights out on open threes
TSJ + Clark are useful players for certain situations

[TimberKat]

We match up way better than last year against teams that has scoring small guys like Kyrie, Luka, SGA, Fox, and Murray. We could actually do some double teaming and is more efficient with switching. On offense, I think our "pass for advantage" vs "pass to reset" ratio is much improved lately (means better ball movement with purpose).

I feel we have an identity now especially on the defensive side with the additionals of DDV, Clark, and TSJ. On offense we are getting there too with JMcD 's cutting, and consistent 3s from NAW+DDV, and cutting down the dribble stuff from Ant and Randle (earlier in the season).

[Loaf_of_bread]

Uh no. Not even close.
KAT to Randle is a massive downgrade on both sides of the ball.
Depth is worse, especially at Center and PG where we are paper thin.
Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards.
Rudy and Mike both worse.

Jaden is a better player this year, and Dante gives us more offensively than Slo Mo did.
But that doesn't make up for the rest.
TJ and Dillingham have the potential to raise our ceiling, but they are both a long ways away, especially Dillingham.

"Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards."

This is where I'm at as well. Probably the most disappointing aspect of our team, this season, and the positive outlook of the franchise going forward.

Not only are we seeing a lack of development in ANTs game, we are seeing what I consider a regression in his ability as a leader. I get it, he's still young, but come on now, you are a professional with all sorts of people helping you.

Hope I'm wrong, and would be great to see him get us back to the WCF.

[TimberKat]

Uh no. Not even close.
KAT to Randle is a massive downgrade on both sides of the ball.
Depth is worse, especially at Center and PG where we are paper thin.
Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards.
Rudy and Mike both worse.

Jaden is a better player this year, and Dante gives us more offensively than Slo Mo did.
But that doesn't make up for the rest.
TJ and Dillingham have the potential to raise our ceiling, but they are both a long ways away, especially Dillingham.

"Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards."

This is where I'm at as well. Probably the most disappointing aspect of our team, this season, and the positive outlook of the franchise going forward.

Not only are we seeing a lack of development in ANTs game, we are seeing what I consider a regression in his ability as a leader. I get it, he's still young, but come on now, you are a professional with all sorts of people helping you.

Hope I'm wrong, and would be great to see him get us back to the WCF.

I am not sure if he really regressed or just haven't improved as a lot people expected. We had a leadership void when traded Towns. I never see Ant as "The leader", so, just wants him to improve passing and mid range game. Currently Ant is 4th in NBA scoring. His avg and effective FGA is the highest of his career, lower steals and less attacking the hoop. Just a different Antimal from last year.

[TheZachAttack]

Uh no. Not even close.
KAT to Randle is a massive downgrade on both sides of the ball.
Depth is worse, especially at Center and PG where we are paper thin.
Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards.
Rudy and Mike both worse.

Jaden is a better player this year, and Dante gives us more offensively than Slo Mo did.
But that doesn't make up for the rest.
TJ and Dillingham have the potential to raise our ceiling, but they are both a long ways away, especially Dillingham.

"Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards."

This is where I'm at as well. Probably the most disappointing aspect of our team, this season, and the positive outlook of the franchise going forward.

Not only are we seeing a lack of development in ANTs game, we are seeing what I consider a regression in his ability as a leader. I get it, he's still young, but come on now, you are a professional with all sorts of people helping you.

Hope I'm wrong, and would be great to see him get us back to the WCF.

I am not sure if he really regressed or just haven't improved as a lot people expected. We had a leadership void when traded Towns. I never see Ant as "The leader", so, just wants him to improve passing and mid range game. Currently Ant is 4th in NBA scoring. His avg and effective FGA is the highest of his career, lower steals and less attacking the hoop. Just a different Antimal from last year.

This is the biggest answer. Aside from that, since the Celtics game with the double team comments he's taken MAJOR LEAPS in his ability to read and make decisions when blitz and doubled and trapped. He's also taken steps forward at playing at his own pace at the middle of the floor, making decisions, and getting to the free throw line. He still needs to develop a 60% mid range shot somewhere to make the game a lot easier and open up a lot more playmaking.

The number of actions and fluidity through which he scores through the flow is also much much higher. He's way more difficult to guard and has been shouldering a larger scoring load.That's all along with his improved 3 point shooting.

I think the Wolves as a team got "figured out" in last years playoffs. That's why this year teams started to blitz Ant and pressure our ball carriers full court. This is normally a playoff style defense and even stars like SGA don't get blitzed like that. The Wolves were exposed as a team that beat themselves if you did that and didn't have answers. I think in either case due to this the team would have regressed from last season -- along with the fact that the level of defensive intensity and consistency that had last year is hard to replicate for an entire regular season.

I think if you watch games, it's very clear that Ant has taken a step forward. There is still really one major gap in his game that's limiting and makes him inconsistent. He doesn't really have a reliable way to score in the middle of the floor. The best scorers don't need to get all of the way to the rim and score. These are also the shots when you can get into this space that it's really easy to start making a defense react to you at your pace and get to the line more consistently.

In pretty much all of the other areas he's improved quite a bit. And especially as he's figured out all of the answers against the blitzing and hedging, he's become a better playmaker. He's way more comfortable with the pocket pass and lob pass to bigs. He's also gotten much better recently at finding the weak side 3 point shooter. The Wolves as a whole have a better supporting cast (although Rudy can sometimes be problematic) for beating these coverages -- and that helps Ant as well.

Ant has basically a 40+ game stretch now where he's averaging over 30ppg.

[Klomp]

Uh no. Not even close.
KAT to Randle is a massive downgrade on both sides of the ball.
Depth is worse, especially at Center and PG where we are paper thin.
Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards.
Rudy and Mike both worse.

Jaden is a better player this year, and Dante gives us more offensively than Slo Mo did.
But that doesn't make up for the rest.
TJ and Dillingham have the potential to raise our ceiling, but they are both a long ways away, especially Dillingham.

"Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards."

This is where I'm at as well. Probably the most disappointing aspect of our team, this season, and the positive outlook of the franchise going forward.

Not only are we seeing a lack of development in ANTs game, we are seeing what I consider a regression in his ability as a leader. I get it, he's still young, but come on now, you are a professional with all sorts of people helping you.

Hope I'm wrong, and would be great to see him get us back to the WCF.

Why does Ant's 3-point shooting get disregarded as part of his overall development?

[winforlose]

Uh no. Not even close.
KAT to Randle is a massive downgrade on both sides of the ball.
Depth is worse, especially at Center and PG where we are paper thin.
Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards.
Rudy and Mike both worse.

Jaden is a better player this year, and Dante gives us more offensively than Slo Mo did.
But that doesn't make up for the rest.
TJ and Dillingham have the potential to raise our ceiling, but they are both a long ways away, especially Dillingham.

"Ant's 3 point shooting is better but his overall game has taken a step backwards."

This is where I'm at as well. Probably the most disappointing aspect of our team, this season, and the positive outlook of the franchise going forward.

Not only are we seeing a lack of development in ANTs game, we are seeing what I consider a regression in his ability as a leader. I get it, he's still young, but come on now, you are a professional with all sorts of people helping you.

Hope I'm wrong, and would be great to see him get us back to the WCF.

Why does Ant's 3-point shooting get disregarded as part of his overall development?

Because more 3s means less free throw shooting. It also means (not universally true, but a common theme this season,) no pass shots and dribble up 3s with a lot of time left on the shot clock. Ant hitting high volume 3s is a good thing, but on a night like tonight where he goes 5 of 14, it is a mixed bag.

I think we have seen a rise in our floor. Whether that translates to our ceiling is yet to be determined. Getting DDV back on track, having Randle sabotage fewer games, and having Jaden be a consistent plus player are all things we didn’t have early this season. Compared to last year we don’t have Kyle which was a major issue for our offense. Good DDV and good Randle together often exceed the offensive output of KAT. I do think we have work to do, and I think the playoff will be illuminating with regard to floor and ceiling. But, at present I think we spend less time on our floor offensively and that helps. Though the defensive floor has gotten lower.

[Klomp]

Why does Ant's 3-point shooting get disregarded as part of his overall development?

Because more 3s means less free throw shooting. It also means (not universally true, but a common theme this season,) no pass shots and dribble up 3s with a lot of time left on the shot clock. Ant hitting high volume 3s is a good thing, but on a night like tonight where he goes 5 of 14, it is a mixed bag.

The funny thing is, that's not completely true. His free throw rate is actually quite comparable to last year, and still quite good. Among guards who have played 2000+ minutes this season, he is 8th in free throw rate (considerably ahead of Donovan Mitchell, for example).

His fouls drawn are only slightly behind last year's pace, as are the number of shooting fouls drawn.

I think we'll see that his threat level from deep will actually help open up more driving lanes in the playoffs.

[winforlose]

Why does Ant's 3-point shooting get disregarded as part of his overall development?

Because more 3s means less free throw shooting. It also means (not universally true, but a common theme this season,) no pass shots and dribble up 3s with a lot of time left on the shot clock. Ant hitting high volume 3s is a good thing, but on a night like tonight where he goes 5 of 14, it is a mixed bag.

The funny thing is, that's not completely true. His free throw rate is actually quite comparable to last year, and still quite good. Among guards who have played 2000+ minutes this season, he is 8th in free throw rate (considerably ahead of Donovan Mitchell, for example).

His fouls drawn are only slightly behind last year's pace, as are the number of shooting fouls drawn.

I think we'll see that his threat level from deep will actually help open up more driving lanes in the playoffs.

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t his free throw rate increase in the last few months? I am trying to remember what Jim Pete said about it. I think it was February where averaged around what SGA did, but I thought it was considerably lower early in the season.

[younggunsmn]

Why does Ant's 3-point shooting get disregarded as part of his overall development?

Because more 3s means less free throw shooting. It also means (not universally true, but a common theme this season,) no pass shots and dribble up 3s with a lot of time left on the shot clock. Ant hitting high volume 3s is a good thing, but on a night like tonight where he goes 5 of 14, it is a mixed bag.

The funny thing is, that's not completely true. His free throw rate is actually quite comparable to last year, and still quite good. Among guards who have played 2000+ minutes this season, he is 8th in free throw rate (considerably ahead of Donovan Mitchell, for example).

His fouls drawn are only slightly behind last year's pace, as are the number of shooting fouls drawn.

I think we'll see that his threat level from deep will actually help open up more driving lanes in the playoffs.

His assist/TO rate of 1.4 (which has ticked up from 1.3 a couple weeks ago) is still bad for a guard with his usage and down from a career high 1.7 last year, which still can be much better.

Defensive effort has been very inconsistent throughout the season. 17 technical fouls with 15 games still to play is also inexcusable.

His poor shooting on 2 pointers (48.5) is holding down his overall efficiency. A lot of that number is because of poor finishing around the basket, a lot of blown layups this year.

It's true that becoming a 40%+ 3 point shooter will open up a lot for him, but maintaining that level depends a lot on shot selection.
He was 5/14 against Utah and there were at least 4-5 misses there that he just shouldn't have taken.
Hopefully he can work with the analytic guys on what are good shots for him.
From a fan's perspective the top of the key straight on step back has been a much better shot for him than the corner or slot step backs for example. His off ball movement has been better this year and led to a lot more open catch and shoot threes.

Overall though, I can't honestly say I think 2025 Ant is better than 2024 Ant.
There's still a lot of season left for us (hopefully).
If we have offensive playoff struggles again it will be time to have an honest conversation about where Ant's ceiling is actually at as a passer and playmaker and what kind of teammates we should be pairing him with.
We may need more playmaking around him than we've had in the past.
And I don't think Julius Randle is the answer.
He's the kind of player that can look good against bad teams and struggles against better defenses in the playoffs.