timberwolves up 3-1, but getting outplayed

[Greenbolt90]

I think you are missing some key points.

1. We have dominated both the turnover and offensive rebounding battles to the tune of getting about 10 extra possessions a game.
Ant has dramatically cut down his turnovers in this series so far.
His A/TO for the series is like 4.5/1 which is top tier even for an elite PG.
This is with the Lakers throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively loading up the box.
If we can keep winning the possession battle we will have a high percentage of winning each game.

2. We have DOMINATED every 4th quarter and crunch time.
Those parts of the game were supposed to be where we were the most outmatched.
Yes, we haven't been consistent and have had one bad quarter in each game. \

3. The Lakers had some RIDICULOUS shotmaking in games 3 and 4 and still lost.
Lebron in particular shot out of his mind from 3 point range which is probably the only thing that made those games close.

4. We have figured some things out with regards to defending Luka.
We are scheming to keep him out of the middle of the floor, cutting the floor in half and living with the corner shooting.
There have been breakdowns, but when it's been good it's been very good.
Luka had only 1 assist and 2 rebounds in 45 minutes in game four, and shot under 50% from the field with 7 FTA.
That's about as good as anyone is going to do defending him when he is healthy and motivated.
It's the same deal as with Jokic, if he isn't making his teammates better and is forced to work really hard for his points, you've done the best you can.

5. The 5 man group Redick has been forced to rely on has 3 bad defenders in it (Reaves, Doncic, Hachimura).

6. We haven't seen the best from Naz Reid, Donte Divencenzo, and Rudy Gobert so far in this series.
We have more in the tank on both ends than we are currently showcasing.

I agree that trusting the Wolves to win is always scary because of the freedom that Chris FInch allows his offensive players.
It can get ugly like in game 2 when we let the defense dictate to us.
But that freedom is also part of what raises our ceiling when things are all clicking, and gives guys like Ant and Naz the confidence to make big shots in crunch time.

'we've been winning the possession battle'

let's look at games 2 & 4, the two games where Luka was healthy following the lakers' game 1 adjustments

in game 2 if you replace the lakers' anomalously woeful 21% 3pt percentage with the league average of 36% (more than fair considering they're a great shooting team and we gave them wide open looks all night) here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 106
wolves: 85

in game 4 if you replace Ant's anomalously great 43 point, 71% true shooting with his season averages of 28 ppg and 59.5%, (more than fair considering he's at 25 ppg and 52% for the series outside of game 4) reduce our anomalous 18 offensive rebounds to 10, our average for the series, and, to be fair, adjust LeBron anomalous 27 point, 80% true shooting night to his season averages of 24.4 ppg and 60.4% (he's averaging 26 ppg on 59% for the series outside of game 4), here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 111
wolves: 99

winning the possession battle at the margins that we've generally been winning them at doesn't get us even close to winning these games when you adjust for luck-based variables that likely won't sustain

'we've been winning the 4th quarters and we were supposed to be bad in crunch time'

for what it's worth i don't think we suddenly got good in crunch time or anything. i think the lakers' very shallow rotation has them getting worn down in the 4th (a thing we do have going for us)

but the issue is that while we've been perhaps better than the lakers in the 4th we haven't been nearly good enough in the other 3 quarters

score through 3 quarters in games 2&4, the two games with a healthy Luka since the lakers' game 1 adjustments:

game 2:

lakers: 81
wolves: 60

game 4:

lakers: 94
wolves: 84

and that's WITH the lakers shooting 21% from 3 in game 2, and Ant with a crazy monster night along with the timberwolves grabbing 18 offensive rebounds in game 4. adjust for those variables and the timberwolves would've dug themselves way too big a hole through 3 to come back

'lakers had ridiculous shotmaking in games 3&4 and still lost'

LeBron sure. everyone else was cumulatively not crazy at all shooting-wise. i do agree that LeBron shooting like he did in games 3&4 was probably an anomaly and i should've pointed that out in my post as something we have going for us

but the issue is that Luka being sick in game 3, and Ant's monster night plus our performance on the offensive boards in game 4..... those are more significant factors that outweigh LeBron coming down to earth. LeBron didn't even take many shots in game 4

'we've figured out some things against Luka'

i don't think giving up open corner 3s to great 3pt shooters is figuring anything out

you say if you make Luka work hard for his points then you've done the best you can. you act like we consistently have Jaden or some great perimeter defender on him. but that often hasn't been the case; we're just willingly switching Randle/Naz/Rudy onto Luka just like the lakers want and Luka's torturing them. i'm not even entirely sure that Jaden can contain Luka sufficiently

and no, it's not like Jokic. it makes sense with Jokic, but Luka is on another level as a scorer

we held Luka under 50% fg last game, but there's a thing called 3 pointers. true shooting factors this in. Luka went 5 of 12 from 3 last game on 61% true shooting overall. totally respectable efficiency and that was probably moderately poor shooting luck for him to boot

as for Luka's 1 assist i think that's because the lakers were getting a lot of their 3s off of extra passes where Luka was the initial creator

'the lakers have 3 bad defenders in their main lineup'

and outside of game 4 we haven't been able to attack them much because the lakers just help and Ant is bad at passing out of doubles. i will say though that game 4 was a good sign and we could try and get switches on Randle more. but the lakers just didn't double Ant enough in game 4 imo and will probably go back to doing that more

'we haven't seen the best of Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy'

Rudy's getting played off the floor because the timberwolves have been forced to play him in a hedge instead of a drop. the whole point of the drop is that you don't leave someone open like in the hedge, but in the pick-and-pop you ARE leaving someone open, so you may as well hedge so that the initial ball-handler is in a tougher passing spot. well, if you're going to hedge then you may as well play Naz over Rudy since he's at least as good as Rudy in the hedge and is way better offensively

as for Divencenzo and Naz i think the reason they haven't been great in this series is because they usually rely on Ant & Randle's playmaking to create advantages for them where they can get open looks or attack closeouts. but the lakers have taken away much of Ant & Randle's playmaking

so i don't see a reason to believe that Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy will start to play better. the lakers have largely negated our huge depth advantage

[winforlose]

timberwolves destroyed the lakers in game 1

since then i feel like the lakers have very solidly outplayed the timberwolves on both ends and should honestly be up 3-1 themselves imo

it starts with the primary creators. as great of a scorer and as improved of a playmaker as Ant is, he's still solidly behind Luka as a scorer and is nowhere near the playmaker. and then LeBron >>> Randle

these disparities only become amplified when you throw in the fact that the lakers have much better spacing than the timberwolves, making it easier for Luka/LeBron to operate

the lakers have alternated between helping and not helping on Ant. the thing is, as great as Ant has become, he still isn't to the point where he can consistently exert major impact in either scenario

Ant has the incredible 3pt shot now and the slashing, but an iffy free throw rate, poor finishing in traffic, terrible midrange shooting, and inconsistent off-ball movement hold back his efficiency, particularly when surrounded by poor spacing

we can rightfully marvel at Ant's ever-growing scoring repertoire and be perpetually encouraged by all of the positive signs of crazy potential he's continually showing, while still realizing that Ant hasn't quite reached the incredibly high threshold of scoring caliber that's required to sufficiently carry a playoff offense against an elite team with consistency. the reality of things is that outside of his spectacular game 4 Ant for the series is averaging 23 points per 36 on 52% true shooting (league average is 58%). which is a big part of the reason why the timberwolves offense has been so bad in this series

then if you double Ant, he often struggles to find the open man and with making high leverage passes. teams usually pay no tax at all when doubling Ant. he's improved significantly when it comes to drive-and-kicks, but if you double him early like the lakers often have been then he can struggle

on the other hand, Randle checks every playmaking box. if you make him a playmaker he'll capitalize all day. but Randle doesn't have the adequate scoring. and the lakers are one of the few teams who haven't helped on Randle drives and have forced him to be a scorer

meanwhile, on the other side Luka has invariably burned the timberwolves regardless of what defense they throw at him. he's killing them in single coverage and he's killing them when they double him. Luka just has a ridiculously good scoring/playmaking package. we're talking a top 5 all-time offensive peak. and then what LeBron gives you on top of that is just gravy

so the lakers have a much better offensive foundation than the timberwolves just due to the difference of key personnel

then layered on top of that are the timberwolves' tactical errors:

-i don't think the timberwolves have doubled Luka nearly often enough. he's proven over and over again over the last couple years that he can kill us with his scoring. the playmaking, while deadly as well, can be counteracted to some degree with rotations. if anyone other than Jaden and possibly Ant is on Luka i would double every time. there have been far too many instances in this series of Rudy/Naz/Randle guarding Luka with no help, which consistently yields very efficient offense

-we're overhelping off the corners when we're doubling Luka. if Luka's getting doubled then there's no need to help on a potential Luka drive because that drive is already being stymied. we've compromised our backline defense so much by overhelping off the corners

-we should stunt/late rotate to Hachimura when he's popping out of the p&p with Luka and make Hachimura a decision-maker up top. instead we've been leaving the corners open for open shots/easy extra pass situations, or have been just leaving Hachimura wide open

-we should exploit Hachimura's abysmal screening. often Jaden or whoever's guarding Luka is hardly hindered by the screen at all because Hachimura's screens are so bad, and yet we still hedge on Luka. even though we could easily just keep Jaden or whoever on Luka and not hedge. we did this a few times in game 4 and the lakers had no idea what to do. we should do it way more

-Ant/Randle/Naz's off-ball D has been terrible. between the botched switches, missed rotations, overhelping, and losing their men, there have been so many needless breakdowns by the timberwolves' defense, mostly by these three guys. all of them have shown the ability to at least be passable off-ball defenders, Ant & Randle were passable for most of the post all-star segment of the regular season. so idk if the coaching staff just isn't focusing as much on off-ball D now or what, but it's a big issue

-the last few points, if corrected to some degree, could dramatically increase Rudy's role as a rim protector in this series. Rudy has hardly been able to rim protect at all and has been increasingly played off the floor because he's having to switch and hedge so much and most of the timberwolves' breakdowns are leading to open 3s instead of drives to the rim. if we did a better job of keeping Jaden on Luka and buttoned up the off-ball D we could start chasing guys off the line and into Rudy more. as of now Rudy is basically just a bystander in this series

add everything up and you have, from game 2 onward, a lakers' offense that has consistently created open looks with ease, and a timberwolves' offense that has usually looked lost, bogged down by largely inefficient Ant & Randle iso-ball with no idea of what else to do

so how do the timberwolves lead this series 3-1?

well, game 3 Luka was sick and performed massively below his standards. so the timberwolves won

game 4 we had an anomaly of a rebounding performance, 18 offensive rebounds, with Ant putting up an anomaly of an offensive performance (43 points, 71% ts, 17 fta's; otherwise in the series he's at 25 ppg, 52% ts, 6 total fta's) and we STILL won by a mere 3 points

that's not to mention that in game 2 in which the lakers won by 9 our defense yielded an endless barrage of open 3s and the lakers hit just 21% of them. lakers should've easily won by 20+

it's just about the flukiest 3-1 lead for a team that i can imagine. oh yeah, and the lakers have homecourt for 2 of the next 3 if it goes the distance

so where does this put the timberwolves? well, pulling out game 4 was absolutely huge. if they'd lost it i'd be really low on their chances considering how they're playing. as it is they just have to win 1 out of 3, which is very doable. hopefully they make the right adjustments, but they haven't shown any real signs of making them. it's currently 3-1 timberwolves, but i think there's real reason to be concerned

Silly me, I always thought the team with the most points at the end of the game is the winner. The Wolves blew several 4th quarter leads during the regular season and ended up in 6th. The Lakers to their credit avoided that in the regular season and got 3rd. Yet, in a tie game 3 with 4:37 left the Wolves go on a 13-1 run to beat LAL 116-104. Then in game 4 with 4:50 to play LAL blows a 7 point lead and lose 116-113. The game is 48 minutes and if the Lakers run out of gas or miss their shots, or simply don’t score enough points, the term for that is losing. While the Wolves were sent to 6th for their 4th quarter **** ups, the Lakers are on the verge of being sent to Cancun. Who knows maybe the Lakers will decide they cannot beat the Wolves and pack their Cancun bags tonight .

[winforlose]

I think you are missing some key points.

1. We have dominated both the turnover and offensive rebounding battles to the tune of getting about 10 extra possessions a game.
Ant has dramatically cut down his turnovers in this series so far.
His A/TO for the series is like 4.5/1 which is top tier even for an elite PG.
This is with the Lakers throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively loading up the box.
If we can keep winning the possession battle we will have a high percentage of winning each game.

2. We have DOMINATED every 4th quarter and crunch time.
Those parts of the game were supposed to be where we were the most outmatched.
Yes, we haven't been consistent and have had one bad quarter in each game. \

3. The Lakers had some RIDICULOUS shotmaking in games 3 and 4 and still lost.
Lebron in particular shot out of his mind from 3 point range which is probably the only thing that made those games close.

4. We have figured some things out with regards to defending Luka.
We are scheming to keep him out of the middle of the floor, cutting the floor in half and living with the corner shooting.
There have been breakdowns, but when it's been good it's been very good.
Luka had only 1 assist and 2 rebounds in 45 minutes in game four, and shot under 50% from the field with 7 FTA.
That's about as good as anyone is going to do defending him when he is healthy and motivated.
It's the same deal as with Jokic, if he isn't making his teammates better and is forced to work really hard for his points, you've done the best you can.

5. The 5 man group Redick has been forced to rely on has 3 bad defenders in it (Reaves, Doncic, Hachimura).

6. We haven't seen the best from Naz Reid, Donte Divencenzo, and Rudy Gobert so far in this series.
We have more in the tank on both ends than we are currently showcasing.

I agree that trusting the Wolves to win is always scary because of the freedom that Chris FInch allows his offensive players.
It can get ugly like in game 2 when we let the defense dictate to us.
But that freedom is also part of what raises our ceiling when things are all clicking, and gives guys like Ant and Naz the confidence to make big shots in crunch time.

'we've been winning the possession battle'

let's look at games 2 & 4, the two games where Luka was healthy following the lakers' game 1 adjustments

in game 2 if you replace the lakers' anomalously woeful 21% 3pt percentage with the league average of 36% (more than fair considering they're a great shooting team and we gave them wide open looks all night) here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 106
wolves: 85

in game 4 if you replace Ant's anomalously great 43 point, 71% true shooting with his season averages of 28 ppg and 59.5%, (more than fair considering he's at 25 ppg and 52% for the series outside of game 4) reduce our anomalous 18 offensive rebounds to 10, our average for the series, and, to be fair, adjust LeBron anomalous 27 point, 80% true shooting night to his season averages of 24.4 ppg and 60.4% (he's averaging 26 ppg on 59% for the series outside of game 4), here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 111
wolves: 99

winning the possession battle at the margins that we've generally been winning them at doesn't get us even close to winning these games when you adjust for luck-based variables that likely won't sustain

'we've been winning the 4th quarters and we were supposed to be bad in crunch time'

for what it's worth i don't think we suddenly got good in crunch time or anything. i think the lakers' very shallow rotation has them getting worn down in the 4th (a thing we do have going for us)

but the issue is that while we've been perhaps better than the lakers in the 4th we haven't been nearly good enough in the other 3 quarters

score through 3 quarters in games 2&4, the two games with a healthy Luka since the lakers' game 1 adjustments:

game 2:

lakers: 81
wolves: 60

game 4:

lakers: 94
wolves: 84

and that's WITH the lakers shooting 21% from 3 in game 2, and Ant with a crazy monster night along with the timberwolves grabbing 18 offensive rebounds in game 4. adjust for those variables and the timberwolves would've dug themselves way too big a hole through 3 to come back

'lakers had ridiculous shotmaking in games 3&4 and still lost'

LeBron sure. everyone else was cumulatively not crazy at all shooting-wise. i do agree that LeBron shooting like he did in games 3&4 was probably an anomaly and i should've pointed that out in my post as something we have going for us

but the issue is that Luka being sick in game 3, and Ant's monster night plus our performance on the offensive boards in game 4..... those are more significant factors that outweigh LeBron coming down to earth. LeBron didn't even take many shots in game 4

'we've figured out some things against Luka'

i don't think giving up open corner 3s to great 3pt shooters is figuring anything out

you say if you make Luka work hard for his points then you've done the best you can. you act like we consistently have Jaden or some great perimeter defender on him. but that often hasn't been the case; we're just willingly switching Randle/Naz/Rudy onto Luka just like the lakers want and Luka's torturing them. i'm not even entirely sure that Jaden can contain Luka sufficiently

and no, it's not like Jokic. it makes sense with Jokic, but Luka is on another level as a scorer

we held Luka under 50% fg last game, but there's a thing called 3 pointers. true shooting factors this in. Luka went 5 of 12 from 3 last game on 61% true shooting overall. totally respectable efficiency and that was probably moderately poor shooting luck for him to boot

as for Luka's 1 assist i think that's because the lakers were getting a lot of their 3s off of extra passes where Luka was the initial creator

'the lakers have 3 bad defenders in their main lineup'

and outside of game 4 we haven't been able to attack them much because the lakers just help and Ant is bad at passing out of doubles. i will say though that game 4 was a good sign and we could try and get switches on Randle more. but the lakers just didn't double Ant enough in game 4 imo and will probably go back to doing that more

'we haven't seen the best of Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy'

Rudy's getting played off the floor because the timberwolves have been forced to play him in a hedge instead of a drop. the whole point of the drop is that you don't leave someone open like in the hedge, but in the pick-and-pop you ARE leaving someone open, so you may as well hedge so that the initial ball-handler is in a tougher passing spot. well, if you're going to hedge then you may as well play Naz over Rudy since he's at least as good as Rudy in the hedge and is way better offensively

as for Divencenzo and Naz i think the reason they haven't been great in this series is because they usually rely on Ant & Randle's playmaking to create advantages for them where they can get open looks or attack closeouts. but the lakers have taken away much of Ant & Randle's playmaking

so i don't see a reason to believe that Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy will start to play better. the lakers have largely negated our huge depth advantage

Yes let’s take out all individual variance and revert to averages that have nothing to do with this series. Let’s ignore the Lakers shooting better than their season averages from deep and our shooting below our season averages. Let’s ignore all the mismatches we have to exploit and make every assumption favorable to LAL, and ignore LAL’s high minutes and wear and tear, then we can get to a hypothetical that allows LAL an advantage. While we are at it why not pretend this is NBA 2K and we can eliminate all human factors completely. Dude when you have to work this hard to justify your team being better than the winning team you are having the wrong conversation. If game 1 was an outlier for LAL then game 2 was for the Wolves. That leaves games 3 and 4 which in both cases the Lakers ran out of gas. You want to eliminate game 3 because Luka was under the weather now you have a 1 game sample size and the math is clear, the Wolves outperformed the Lakers in the fourth. Maybe try subs this time.

[BlacJacMac]

in game 2 if you replace the lakers' anomalously woeful 21% 3pt percentage with the league average of 36% (more than fair considering they're a great shooting team and we gave them wide open looks all night) here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 106
wolves: 85

What if you replace the Wolves 38%/20% shooting in Game 2 with the league averages? Then what is the final adjusted score?

[cmoss84]

in game 2 if you replace the lakers' anomalously woeful 21% 3pt percentage with the league average of 36% (more than fair considering they're a great shooting team and we gave them wide open looks all night) here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 106
wolves: 85

What if you replace the Wolves 38%/20% shooting in Game 2 with the league averages? Then what is the final adjusted score?

shhhhh. you're not supposed to ask that!

[younggunsmn]

That's a lot of words for someone with 5 posts.

1. Winning the possession battle (Offensive rebounds and turnovers over the course of a full game) are not "luck stats" to be adjusted for.
They are hustle and BBIQ stats that benefit the team that plays smarter and harder.
They are metrics that heavily influence winning.
And we've been winning them all series.

2. DEFENSE AND QUALITY of shots matters. You can't just adjust for someone's shooting averages, especially on non-3-pointers.
Ant LIVED in their paint in games 3 and 4. to the tune of 14/17 from the line and 7/13 on 2 pointers.
He shot 5/10 from 3 which is not at all anomalous and none of those makes were crazy or insanely well defended makes.
Unlike some of the Luka and LeBron logo shots and heavily contested 28-30 footers that were made.

Overall I was happy with the scheme on Luka in games 3 and 4.
We kept him out of the paint and were effective in cutting the floor in half.
He wasn't finding teammates for easy lobs. layups, or wide open 3's.
We often made them use a lot of the shot clock.
We forced like 4 or 5 24 second violations.

They were able to get a few wide open 3's but honestly those came off of some ridiculously smooth ball movement that you have to give them credit floor. Ant and Dante/Mike were doing a tremendous job balancing their low man duties and getting to the corner shooters.
How about that block of Lebron by Mike at the rim?

This team's achilles heel is the one bad stretch and big run by the other team.
Usually a sustained stretch of bad offense leading to easy baskets and transition opportunities for the other team.

When we avoid that stretch, I think we have the capabilities of beating any other team right now.

Out of 16 quarters, we've had 3 that have gone a little sideways.
Q1 of game 2 (-19) cost us the game.
But we held them to 13 points in quarter 4 of that game and would have pulled it out had we been able to hit 30 points in the 4th quarter.
Q3 of game 4 (-13) nearly cost us the game. Then we put up our own +13 in Q4.

With his giant wingspan Rudy could wreck an offense if he learned to play hedge or trap well.
Those schemes are all about making passes hard to buy your teammates time to recover.
Rudy is playing himself off the floor with his poor hands and mental mistakes.
The good version of Rudy can be a real difference maker, even if Naz ends up finishing the game.

I'm not saying we're going to win.
Both teams are capable of playing better or worse than average on any given night.

I'm just saying there are some positive signs on our end to be optimistic about.

[KGdaBom]

I think you are missing some key points.

1. We have dominated both the turnover and offensive rebounding battles to the tune of getting about 10 extra possessions a game.
Ant has dramatically cut down his turnovers in this series so far.
His A/TO for the series is like 4.5/1 which is top tier even for an elite PG.
This is with the Lakers throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively loading up the box.
If we can keep winning the possession battle we will have a high percentage of winning each game.

2. We have DOMINATED every 4th quarter and crunch time.
Those parts of the game were supposed to be where we were the most outmatched.
Yes, we haven't been consistent and have had one bad quarter in each game. \

3. The Lakers had some RIDICULOUS shotmaking in games 3 and 4 and still lost.
Lebron in particular shot out of his mind from 3 point range which is probably the only thing that made those games close.

4. We have figured some things out with regards to defending Luka.
We are scheming to keep him out of the middle of the floor, cutting the floor in half and living with the corner shooting.
There have been breakdowns, but when it's been good it's been very good.
Luka had only 1 assist and 2 rebounds in 45 minutes in game four, and shot under 50% from the field with 7 FTA.
That's about as good as anyone is going to do defending him when he is healthy and motivated.
It's the same deal as with Jokic, if he isn't making his teammates better and is forced to work really hard for his points, you've done the best you can.

5. The 5 man group Redick has been forced to rely on has 3 bad defenders in it (Reaves, Doncic, Hachimura).

6. We haven't seen the best from Naz Reid, Donte Divencenzo, and Rudy Gobert so far in this series.
We have more in the tank on both ends than we are currently showcasing.

I agree that trusting the Wolves to win is always scary because of the freedom that Chris FInch allows his offensive players.
It can get ugly like in game 2 when we let the defense dictate to us.
But that freedom is also part of what raises our ceiling when things are all clicking, and gives guys like Ant and Naz the confidence to make big shots in crunch time.

'we've been winning the possession battle'

let's look at games 2 & 4, the two games where Luka was healthy following the lakers' game 1 adjustments

in game 2 if you replace the lakers' anomalously woeful 21% 3pt percentage with the league average of 36% (more than fair considering they're a great shooting team and we gave them wide open looks all night) here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 106
wolves: 85

in game 4 if you replace Ant's anomalously great 43 point, 71% true shooting with his season averages of 28 ppg and 59.5%, (more than fair considering he's at 25 ppg and 52% for the series outside of game 4) reduce our anomalous 18 offensive rebounds to 10, our average for the series, and, to be fair, adjust LeBron anomalous 27 point, 80% true shooting night to his season averages of 24.4 ppg and 60.4% (he's averaging 26 ppg on 59% for the series outside of game 4), here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 111
wolves: 99

winning the possession battle at the margins that we've generally been winning them at doesn't get us even close to winning these games when you adjust for luck-based variables that likely won't sustain

'we've been winning the 4th quarters and we were supposed to be bad in crunch time'

for what it's worth i don't think we suddenly got good in crunch time or anything. i think the lakers' very shallow rotation has them getting worn down in the 4th (a thing we do have going for us)

but the issue is that while we've been perhaps better than the lakers in the 4th we haven't been nearly good enough in the other 3 quarters

score through 3 quarters in games 2&4, the two games with a healthy Luka since the lakers' game 1 adjustments:

game 2:

lakers: 81
wolves: 60

game 4:

lakers: 94
wolves: 84

and that's WITH the lakers shooting 21% from 3 in game 2, and Ant with a crazy monster night along with the timberwolves grabbing 18 offensive rebounds in game 4. adjust for those variables and the timberwolves would've dug themselves way too big a hole through 3 to come back

'lakers had ridiculous shotmaking in games 3&4 and still lost'

LeBron sure. everyone else was cumulatively not crazy at all shooting-wise. i do agree that LeBron shooting like he did in games 3&4 was probably an anomaly and i should've pointed that out in my post as something we have going for us

but the issue is that Luka being sick in game 3, and Ant's monster night plus our performance on the offensive boards in game 4..... those are more significant factors that outweigh LeBron coming down to earth. LeBron didn't even take many shots in game 4

'we've figured out some things against Luka'

i don't think giving up open corner 3s to great 3pt shooters is figuring anything out

you say if you make Luka work hard for his points then you've done the best you can. you act like we consistently have Jaden or some great perimeter defender on him. but that often hasn't been the case; we're just willingly switching Randle/Naz/Rudy onto Luka just like the lakers want and Luka's torturing them. i'm not even entirely sure that Jaden can contain Luka sufficiently

and no, it's not like Jokic. it makes sense with Jokic, but Luka is on another level as a scorer

we held Luka under 50% fg last game, but there's a thing called 3 pointers. true shooting factors this in. Luka went 5 of 12 from 3 last game on 61% true shooting overall. totally respectable efficiency and that was probably moderately poor shooting luck for him to boot

as for Luka's 1 assist i think that's because the lakers were getting a lot of their 3s off of extra passes where Luka was the initial creator

'the lakers have 3 bad defenders in their main lineup'

and outside of game 4 we haven't been able to attack them much because the lakers just help and Ant is bad at passing out of doubles. i will say though that game 4 was a good sign and we could try and get switches on Randle more. but the lakers just didn't double Ant enough in game 4 imo and will probably go back to doing that more

'we haven't seen the best of Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy'

Rudy's getting played off the floor because the timberwolves have been forced to play him in a hedge instead of a drop. the whole point of the drop is that you don't leave someone open like in the hedge, but in the pick-and-pop you ARE leaving someone open, so you may as well hedge so that the initial ball-handler is in a tougher passing spot. well, if you're going to hedge then you may as well play Naz over Rudy since he's at least as good as Rudy in the hedge and is way better offensively

as for Divencenzo and Naz i think the reason they haven't been great in this series is because they usually rely on Ant & Randle's playmaking to create advantages for them where they can get open looks or attack closeouts. but the lakers have taken away much of Ant & Randle's playmaking

so i don't see a reason to believe that Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy will start to play better. the lakers have largely negated our huge depth advantage

Your logic is very similar to the guy who thinks the Lakers have Home Court Advantage.

[BlacJacMac]

Your logic is very similar to the guy who thinks the Lakers have Home Court Advantage.

I love that guy. He's completely delusional, but the mental gymnastics he goes through in his posts are incredibly impressive.

Dude can go from A to B to letters that we haven't even discovered yet.

[TimberKat]

I think you are missing some key points.

1. We have dominated both the turnover and offensive rebounding battles to the tune of getting about 10 extra possessions a game.
Ant has dramatically cut down his turnovers in this series so far.
His A/TO for the series is like 4.5/1 which is top tier even for an elite PG.
This is with the Lakers throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively loading up the box.
If we can keep winning the possession battle we will have a high percentage of winning each game.

2. We have DOMINATED every 4th quarter and crunch time.
Those parts of the game were supposed to be where we were the most outmatched.
Yes, we haven't been consistent and have had one bad quarter in each game. \

3. The Lakers had some RIDICULOUS shotmaking in games 3 and 4 and still lost.
Lebron in particular shot out of his mind from 3 point range which is probably the only thing that made those games close.

4. We have figured some things out with regards to defending Luka.
We are scheming to keep him out of the middle of the floor, cutting the floor in half and living with the corner shooting.
There have been breakdowns, but when it's been good it's been very good.
Luka had only 1 assist and 2 rebounds in 45 minutes in game four, and shot under 50% from the field with 7 FTA.
That's about as good as anyone is going to do defending him when he is healthy and motivated.
It's the same deal as with Jokic, if he isn't making his teammates better and is forced to work really hard for his points, you've done the best you can.

5. The 5 man group Redick has been forced to rely on has 3 bad defenders in it (Reaves, Doncic, Hachimura).

6. We haven't seen the best from Naz Reid, Donte Divencenzo, and Rudy Gobert so far in this series.
We have more in the tank on both ends than we are currently showcasing.

I agree that trusting the Wolves to win is always scary because of the freedom that Chris FInch allows his offensive players.
It can get ugly like in game 2 when we let the defense dictate to us.
But that freedom is also part of what raises our ceiling when things are all clicking, and gives guys like Ant and Naz the confidence to make big shots in crunch time.

'we've been winning the possession battle'

let's look at games 2 & 4, the two games where Luka was healthy following the lakers' game 1 adjustments

in game 2 if you replace the lakers' anomalously woeful 21% 3pt percentage with the league average of 36% (more than fair considering they're a great shooting team and we gave them wide open looks all night) here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 106
wolves: 85

in game 4 if you replace Ant's anomalously great 43 point, 71% true shooting with his season averages of 28 ppg and 59.5%, (more than fair considering he's at 25 ppg and 52% for the series outside of game 4) reduce our anomalous 18 offensive rebounds to 10, our average for the series, and, to be fair, adjust LeBron anomalous 27 point, 80% true shooting night to his season averages of 24.4 ppg and 60.4% (he's averaging 26 ppg on 59% for the series outside of game 4), here's the adjusted final score:

lakers: 111
wolves: 99

winning the possession battle at the margins that we've generally been winning them at doesn't get us even close to winning these games when you adjust for luck-based variables that likely won't sustain

'we've been winning the 4th quarters and we were supposed to be bad in crunch time'

for what it's worth i don't think we suddenly got good in crunch time or anything. i think the lakers' very shallow rotation has them getting worn down in the 4th (a thing we do have going for us)

but the issue is that while we've been perhaps better than the lakers in the 4th we haven't been nearly good enough in the other 3 quarters

score through 3 quarters in games 2&4, the two games with a healthy Luka since the lakers' game 1 adjustments:

game 2:

lakers: 81
wolves: 60

game 4:

lakers: 94
wolves: 84

and that's WITH the lakers shooting 21% from 3 in game 2, and Ant with a crazy monster night along with the timberwolves grabbing 18 offensive rebounds in game 4. adjust for those variables and the timberwolves would've dug themselves way too big a hole through 3 to come back

'lakers had ridiculous shotmaking in games 3&4 and still lost'

LeBron sure. everyone else was cumulatively not crazy at all shooting-wise. i do agree that LeBron shooting like he did in games 3&4 was probably an anomaly and i should've pointed that out in my post as something we have going for us

but the issue is that Luka being sick in game 3, and Ant's monster night plus our performance on the offensive boards in game 4..... those are more significant factors that outweigh LeBron coming down to earth. LeBron didn't even take many shots in game 4

'we've figured out some things against Luka'

i don't think giving up open corner 3s to great 3pt shooters is figuring anything out

you say if you make Luka work hard for his points then you've done the best you can. you act like we consistently have Jaden or some great perimeter defender on him. but that often hasn't been the case; we're just willingly switching Randle/Naz/Rudy onto Luka just like the lakers want and Luka's torturing them. i'm not even entirely sure that Jaden can contain Luka sufficiently

and no, it's not like Jokic. it makes sense with Jokic, but Luka is on another level as a scorer

we held Luka under 50% fg last game, but there's a thing called 3 pointers. true shooting factors this in. Luka went 5 of 12 from 3 last game on 61% true shooting overall. totally respectable efficiency and that was probably moderately poor shooting luck for him to boot

as for Luka's 1 assist i think that's because the lakers were getting a lot of their 3s off of extra passes where Luka was the initial creator

'the lakers have 3 bad defenders in their main lineup'

and outside of game 4 we haven't been able to attack them much because the lakers just help and Ant is bad at passing out of doubles. i will say though that game 4 was a good sign and we could try and get switches on Randle more. but the lakers just didn't double Ant enough in game 4 imo and will probably go back to doing that more

'we haven't seen the best of Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy'

Rudy's getting played off the floor because the timberwolves have been forced to play him in a hedge instead of a drop. the whole point of the drop is that you don't leave someone open like in the hedge, but in the pick-and-pop you ARE leaving someone open, so you may as well hedge so that the initial ball-handler is in a tougher passing spot. well, if you're going to hedge then you may as well play Naz over Rudy since he's at least as good as Rudy in the hedge and is way better offensively

as for Divencenzo and Naz i think the reason they haven't been great in this series is because they usually rely on Ant & Randle's playmaking to create advantages for them where they can get open looks or attack closeouts. but the lakers have taken away much of Ant & Randle's playmaking

so i don't see a reason to believe that Naz/Divencenzo/Rudy will start to play better. the lakers have largely negated our huge depth advantage

Yes let’s take out all individual variance and revert to averages that have nothing to do with this series. Let’s ignore the Lakers shooting better than their season averages from deep and our shooting below our season averages. Let’s ignore all the mismatches we have to exploit and make every assumption favorable to LAL, and ignore LAL’s high minutes and wear and tear, then we can get to a hypothetical that allows LAL an advantage. While we are at it why not pretend this is NBA 2K and we can eliminate all human factors completely. Dude when you have to work this hard to justify your team being better than the winning team you are having the wrong conversation. If game 1 was an outlier for LAL then game 2 was for the Wolves. That leaves games 3 and 4 which in both cases the Lakers ran out of gas. You want to eliminate game 3 because Luka was under the weather now you have a 1 game sample size and the math is clear, the Wolves outperformed the Lakers in the fourth. Maybe try subs this time.

You guys are making this way too complicated:
For game 4, if Luka didn't miss the layup and Reaves just makes one more 3s, Lakers win.

For game 3, if Luka wasn't sick and gone 6/16 for 17 pts, just Luka's usually 30pts, Lakers win 117-116.

Lakers really should be up 3-1 and very capable win the next 3 by playing more like their average game

[Calinks]

I don't think we are getting outplayed but I don't think our team has had a great team game since game 1. I think that spells more danger for the Lakers though. We aren't playing at our best but still managing to pull out wins. If we get a game where two of Minnesota's role guys are lighting it up, say Donte and NAW, it would be huge trouble for LA.

[winforlose]

I don't think we are getting outplayed but I don't think our team has had a great team game since game 1. I think that spells more danger for the Lakers though. We aren't playing at our best but still managing to pull out wins. If we get a game where two of Minnesota's role guys are lighting it up, say Donte and NAW, it would be huge trouble for LA.

We aren’t even playing a full 48. We started the 3rd in a 14-0 Laker run and still managed to claw back. Our 3 point shooting has been off in every game since game 1. Rudy still hasn’t found his game, Finch has not had adjustments to control the wide open 3s his doubling is giving up, ect…

The simple truth is the Lakers need the refs like a fish needs water. When they have to play an even game they are not good enough. When the refs make mistakes that benefit the other team they are really screwed. In back to back games the Lakers have run out of gas in the 3rd because they are too top heavy and too top reliant.

[Klomp]

Dude when you have to work this hard to justify your team being better than the winning team you are having the wrong conversation. If game 1 was an outlier for LAL then game 2 was for the Wolves. That leaves games 3 and 4 which in both cases the Lakers ran out of gas. You want to eliminate game 3 because Luka was under the weather now you have a 1 game sample size and the math is clear, the Wolves outperformed the Lakers in the fourth. Maybe try subs this time.

No reason to believe from the poster's history that this is a Lakers fan.

[KGdaBom]

Dude when you have to work this hard to justify your team being better than the winning team you are having the wrong conversation. If game 1 was an outlier for LAL then game 2 was for the Wolves. That leaves games 3 and 4 which in both cases the Lakers ran out of gas. You want to eliminate game 3 because Luka was under the weather now you have a 1 game sample size and the math is clear, the Wolves outperformed the Lakers in the fourth. Maybe try subs this time.

No reason to believe from the poster's history that this is a Lakers fan.

He has no posting history.

[Baseline81]

Greenbolt90 will once again state the Wolves didn't deserve to win last night.

[winforlose]

Greenbolt90 will once again state the Wolves didn't deserve to win last night.

We shot 16% from deep and 1-17 from deep in the 2nd half. Someone had to win that game and it was Rudy. No one else deserved anything. But the funny thing about sports is that it doesn’t really come down to who should win or who deserved to win, just who scored the most.

[Klomp]

Dude when you have to work this hard to justify your team being better than the winning team you are having the wrong conversation. If game 1 was an outlier for LAL then game 2 was for the Wolves. That leaves games 3 and 4 which in both cases the Lakers ran out of gas. You want to eliminate game 3 because Luka was under the weather now you have a 1 game sample size and the math is clear, the Wolves outperformed the Lakers in the fourth. Maybe try subs this time.

No reason to believe from the poster's history that this is a Lakers fan.

He has no posting history.

A Lakers fan doesn't make their first two posts on the Timberwolves forum, one being a recap of the summer league team in July and one being a midseason report card. I know it's fun to clown on new posters when you disagree with them, but it just isn't necessary.

[KGdaBom]

No reason to believe from the poster's history that this is a Lakers fan.

He has no posting history.

A Lakers fan doesn't make their first two posts on the Timberwolves forum, one being a recap of the summer league team in July and one being a midseason report card. I know it's fun to clown on new posters when you disagree with them, but it just isn't necessary.

OK. I don't want to be mean, but IMO he's using some convoluted logic.

[younggunsmn]

I think you are missing some key points.

1. We have dominated both the turnover and offensive rebounding battles to the tune of getting about 10 extra possessions a game.
Ant has dramatically cut down his turnovers in this series so far.
His A/TO for the series is like 4.5/1 which is top tier even for an elite PG.
This is with the Lakers throwing the kitchen sink at him defensively loading up the box.
If we can keep winning the possession battle we will have a high percentage of winning each game.

2. We have DOMINATED every 4th quarter and crunch time.
Those parts of the game were supposed to be where we were the most outmatched.
Yes, we haven't been consistent and have had one bad quarter in each game. \

3. The Lakers had some RIDICULOUS shotmaking in games 3 and 4 and still lost.
Lebron in particular shot out of his mind from 3 point range which is probably the only thing that made those games close.

4. We have figured some things out with regards to defending Luka.
We are scheming to keep him out of the middle of the floor, cutting the floor in half and living with the corner shooting.
There have been breakdowns, but when it's been good it's been very good.
Luka had only 1 assist and 2 rebounds in 45 minutes in game four, and shot under 50% from the field with 7 FTA.
That's about as good as anyone is going to do defending him when he is healthy and motivated.
It's the same deal as with Jokic, if he isn't making his teammates better and is forced to work really hard for his points, you've done the best you can.

5. The 5 man group Redick has been forced to rely on has 3 bad defenders in it (Reaves, Doncic, Hachimura).

6. We haven't seen the best from Naz Reid, Donte Divencenzo, and Rudy Gobert so far in this series.
We have more in the tank on both ends than we are currently showcasing.

I agree that trusting the Wolves to win is always scary because of the freedom that Chris FInch allows his offensive players.
It can get ugly like in game 2 when we let the defense dictate to us.
But that freedom is also part of what raises our ceiling when things are all clicking, and gives guys like Ant and Naz the confidence to make big shots in crunch time.

Bumping this for absolutely no reason whatsoever

[cmoss84]

He has no posting history.

A Lakers fan doesn't make their first two posts on the Timberwolves forum, one being a recap of the summer league team in July and one being a midseason report card. I know it's fun to clown on new posters when you disagree with them, but it just isn't necessary.

OK. I don't want to be mean, but IMO he's using some convoluted logic.

That was a very nice way of saying "he's special."

[younggunsmn]

A Lakers fan doesn't make their first two posts on the Timberwolves forum, one being a recap of the summer league team in July and one being a midseason report card. I know it's fun to clown on new posters when you disagree with them, but it just isn't necessary.

OK. I don't want to be mean, but IMO he's using some convoluted logic.

That was a very nice way of saying "he's special."

I appreciate the effort he went to to try to make his points.
It just tilted sharply negative at times, which is fine.
Something I've been more than a little guilty of more often than not.
Playing devil's advocate is often a useful exercise.

It was an interesting thread so thank you for contributing greenbolt.
It's an exciting time to be a wolves fan and I didn't mean to dump on a new poster.