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Identity crisis?

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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#801 » by winforlose » Tue Jul 22, 2025 9:49 pm

Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:The notion that teams who have Star PGs are not really using them as PGs is flawed as well. SGA is a PG, so is Brunson, and so is Hali. Teams who lack PGs often get eliminated in the conference finals, whereas teams that have good ones (not necessarily superstar, but high end PGs,) tend to win chips.

How many championships have Haliburton and Brunson won?

Ant is closer to SGA in role than you think. Yes, there is a talent gap, but there is also an age gap. I'm not ready to say Ant will never be as good as SGA is now, are you?


SGA will never be the SG that Ant is. He will never be a sift through defenses the way Ant does. He will always be more whistle dependent than Ant, and Ant is flat out better at on ball defense than SGA. But Ant will never have the handle or instincts to set up players the way SGA does. It is not the same thing.

Hali got his team to the ECF. Brunson carried them two years in a row (including through horrible injuries.) PG play is essential for teams, regardless of whether it is their best player or simply a top 3 or 4 like in Cleveland.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#802 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 22, 2025 9:54 pm

winforlose wrote:Hali got his team to the ECF. Brunson carried them two years in a row (including through horrible injuries.) PG play is essential for teams, regardless of whether it is their best player or simply a top 3 or 4 like in Cleveland.

Ant has done that too though...I don't think putting limits on Ant and what he can do will end well.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#803 » by winforlose » Tue Jul 22, 2025 10:12 pm

Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:Hali got his team to the ECF. Brunson carried them two years in a row (including through horrible injuries.) PG play is essential for teams, regardless of whether it is their best player or simply a top 3 or 4 like in Cleveland.

Ant has done that too though...I don't think putting limits on Ant and what he can do will end well.


You’re comparing someone who can do something (though they have publicly stated they don’t want to,) and not nearly as well, vs someone who loves it and is great at it. Ant’s game is better and easier (both getting open shots and getting to the rim,) when someone else is helping to create for him. Ant does not need to be blitzed every time. To be facing the set defense every time. He can do small/small PNR and be the roller. He can back cut and be set free by off ball screens. He can corner crash and use his athleticism for easy put backs. Ant is not enhanced by having the ball at the top the majority of the time. He does it out of necessity, and with great personal sacrifice, (energy, getting beaten up, being forced to give it up at disadvantageous positions, and his numbers are depressed.) Ant wants a Mike Conley type PG. Let’s get him one.

P.S I believe our teams numbers were better with a PG than without one in both 23/24 and 24/25. Especially given Ant’s penchant for hero ball late game.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#804 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 22, 2025 10:41 pm

winforlose wrote:
Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:Hali got his team to the ECF. Brunson carried them two years in a row (including through horrible injuries.) PG play is essential for teams, regardless of whether it is their best player or simply a top 3 or 4 like in Cleveland.

Ant has done that too though...I don't think putting limits on Ant and what he can do will end well.


You’re comparing someone who can do something (though they have publicly stated they don’t want to,) and not nearly as well, vs someone who loves it and is great at it. Ant’s game is better and easier (both getting open shots and getting to the rim,) when someone else is helping to create for him. Ant does not need to be blitzed every time. To be facing the set defense every time. He can do small/small PNR and be the roller. He can back cut and be set free by off ball screens. He can corner crash and use his athleticism for easy put backs. Ant is not enhanced by having the ball at the top the majority of the time. He does it out of necessity, and with great personal sacrifice, (energy, getting beaten up, being forced to give it up at disadvantageous positions, and his numbers are depressed.) Ant wants a Mike Conley type PG. Let’s get him one.

P.S I believe our teams numbers were better with a PG than without one in both 23/24 and 24/25. Especially given Ant’s penchant for hero ball late game.

I don't think the "publicly saying he doesn't want to" is as big of a deal than you think of it, because I don't think the sees 90% of the actions he runs as being a point guard. Again, being a point guard in the modern NBA is far far far different than it was in the 1980s. If you're saying he wants to be Jeff Hornacek instead of John Stockton on the 1990s Jazz, I think you're sorely mistaken. Do you really think he doesn't want the ball in his hands as much as possible? That is what you are calling for. So now who is trying to pigeonhole him into a role he doesn't want?

And let's be real, Julius Randle is a de facto PG out there for us. Most any trade that will bring in the kinds of PGs some people are asking for, Randle will be outgoing. Not only because of his salary or because of Naz Reid behind him, but because bringing in a PG will neutralize one of the strongest attributes Randle brought this team last season.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#805 » by Slim Tubby » Tue Jul 22, 2025 10:58 pm

winforlose wrote:
Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:The notion that teams who have Star PGs are not really using them as PGs is flawed as well. SGA is a PG, so is Brunson, and so is Hali. Teams who lack PGs often get eliminated in the conference finals, whereas teams that have good ones (not necessarily superstar, but high end PGs,) tend to win chips.

How many championships have Haliburton and Brunson won?

Ant is closer to SGA in role than you think. Yes, there is a talent gap, but there is also an age gap. I'm not ready to say Ant will never be as good as SGA is now, are you?


SGA will never be the SG that Ant is. He will never be a sift through defenses the way Ant does. He will always be more whistle dependent than Ant, and Ant is flat out better at on ball defense than SGA. But Ant will never have the handle or instincts to set up players the way SGA does. It is not the same thing.

Hali got his team to the ECF. Brunson carried them two years in a row (including through horrible injuries.) PG play is essential for teams, regardless of whether it is their best player or simply a top 3 or 4 like in Cleveland.
It's impossible for me to compare Ant and FTA because neither is capable of dominating at each other's position.

Ant is built like a truck and I firmly believe that works against him getting calls from the refs. FTA is built like a pencil and the breeze generated by a fan in the stands waving a foam finger can knock him over and send him to the line.

At the end of the day, we need a highly efficient PG to really unlock Ant's full potential as a SG.

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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#806 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 22, 2025 11:07 pm

While I might agree that a highly efficient PG might really unlock Ant's full potential as a SG in 2025, I think continuing along the current path could also be the best for his development over the next 5 years as a whole.

It's like when Flip put LaVine at PG as a rookie. It might not have been the most beneficial for the Timberwolves or for LaVine in 2024-15, but I'd argue that it helped his development because it gave him those repeated reps on the ball to quicken his processing and development in all of these different situations. The next year, LaVine had all of that extra skills to stack onto the skills he already had.

Everyone was critical of Ant and his 3-point shooting volume this past season. But as his development continues, to stack "point guard" reps onto 3-point shooting volume onto the driving he already was great at, his development arc is going to continue moving in a positive direction.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#807 » by FrenchMinnyFan » Tue Jul 22, 2025 11:34 pm

frankenwolf wrote:
minimus wrote:
TimberKat wrote:I would agree with your take on Chemistry if not for such bad showing against OKC. Our offense looked completely out class and had no answer to OKC defense. We got lots of money lock up with Gobert, Randle, and Naz. They can't get much going. We turn over the ball like crazy.


I would agree with your take on chemistry, but Nicola Jokic had 41 assists and 31 turnovers against OKC. Just saying.


What we need, as Mike demonstrates, is someone who will look at the court, analyze what is going on and then counteract it with precision. That is why we think we need a PG because that is what the good ones do. Can Ant grow into that, or Dilly? Someone who has a level head, no matter the situation, because the coach can coach, but he can't make the players play. Mike sees what's gong on and can direct traffic on the court. Very hard to direct when you are standing on the sidelines.

I'm still in favor of a high IQ PG, but Dilly, I think, is getting there.


Agree with all of this. OKC was smarter than us on both sides of the court and they manage to control us quite easy. We need smarter players at times as the only real smart player we got is a 38 old PG. It's not by luck if Mike was having a + net on 4 games out of 5 despite providing little scoring. We need a guy who carry the offense in a smart way. As long as Randle +Ant turnover the ball at such a high rate, it may it impossible against such a good OKC team.

I hope Dilly improve, ANT keep improving. It we failed this year, we need a high IQ PG, which mean ANT has to share much more the ball. Is he ready for that?
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#808 » by minimus » Wed Jul 23, 2025 7:53 am

AST:TO is often used as a broad indicator of offensive feel. I am of the opinion that turnovers are bad and having a wildly negative AST-TO ratio is probably a bad sign unless you are a nuclear shooter or hyper athletic lob-threat. But does having a high AST-TO automatically mean you have feel on a basketball court? Quite often, players who are incredibly high in this stat can simply be table-setters on teams running high-powered offenses full of off-screen plays. I am not suggesting these skills aren’t valuable, but more that it can be worth contextualizing the types of assists players are getting. More filtering is needed to truly grasp a players “feel”, whether that be more granular stats or film analysis.


This is something I need to constantly remind myself of

source: https://theswishtheory.com/2025-nba-draft-articles/2025/06/javon-small-scouting-and-contextualising-feel-passing-and-processing-speed/
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#809 » by minimus » Wed Jul 23, 2025 10:38 am

I was honestly sick and tired of all the PG talk… until I recently stumbled upon this article:
https://thef5.substack.com/p/the-nba-has-entered-its-weak-link

Here’s the quote that really changed my perspective:
If you want to build a team for success, you need to look less at your strongest links and more at your weakest ones. It is there that a team’s destiny is determined, whether it will go down in history or be forever considered a failure.

I think this framework is key to understanding how the NBA works in 2025. Looking at basketball through the lens of a weak link sport helps explain why teams succeed and fail, especially in the playoffs.

In the postseason, poor defenders are mercilessly hunted on one end while reluctant shooters are blatantly ignored on the other end. It doesn’t matter how good a team’s best player is if their worst player is consistently forcing them to defend or attack 4-on-5. A team’s worst player can all but cancel out the impact of its best player.

Modern defensive schemes require five defenders to be on the same page, rotating on a string and covering for each others mistakes at a moment’s notice. One weak link in the chain renders all the previous defensive rotations null. It doesn’t matter how good of a one-on-one scorer they are on offense if they look like food to opposing ballhandlers when they’re on defense.


This “weak link” framework is extremely relevant for the 2025 NBA. And honestly, it helps explain a lot of what happened to the Wolves in the playoffs.

What really caught me off guard, though, was this:

Strong Link: LeBron James
Weak Link: Jaden McDaniels
Advantage: Los Angeles Lakers

Weaker players than Jaden McDaniels will get minutes in this series. But unlike those lesser players, Minnesota doesn’t have a clear and obvious McDaniels replacement to play when the going gets rough. The Wolves need McDaniels on the court as much as possible to defend the Lakers three-headed offensive monster of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves. As good as he is on defense, McDaniels’ lack of juice on offense will prove to be too much of a burden for the Wolves to overcome.


Not Gobert. Not Conley. Not DDV. But McDaniels — and I actually get it.

Despite being a top-tier defender, Jaden’s offensive limitations — especially his extremely poor catch-and-shoot numbers — turned him into a 4-on-5 liability in high-leverage moments. And the Wolves had no good replacement: NAW provided similar defensive value, but he’s also not a strong on-ball creator or rim attacker. So even though NAW is a better shooter, the overall offensive value didn’t shift much. Neither of them punish closeouts, break down defenses, or run effectively in transition.

Meanwhile, OKC was doing historic stuff on defense — isolating our ballhandlers with doubles, cutting off secondary actions with elite rotations, and making every possession a battle of attrition.

Read on Twitter

Image

This is where someone like TJ Shannon makes a massive difference. Just look at how he attacks closeouts, pressures the rim, and runs the floor. He brings physicality, decisiveness, and a scoring mentality — three things we often lacked at the wing spot in that series.


I wonder if our coaching staff sees it the same way — by letting TJ take on more of a creator role in the offense.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter


This isn’t something you’d build your primary offense around, but as a secondary option, it’s a legitimate and feasible counter to stagnation. He’s decisive, physical, and attacks with purpose — and that opens up new layers in half-court sets.

Then you can add tertiary playmaking options like Rob, who has already flashed some intriguing reads:

Read on Twitter


This isn’t meant to be a full analysis of all the Wolves’ issues — just another lens through which to view our roster construction. And I found it pretty eye-opening.

P.S. More tidbits from the another article from F5 that caught my eye:
In terms of efficiency, the Gobert–Edwards pick-and-roll was actually more effective than Turner–Haliburton, even though Turner is a proven stretch five and Hali is considered an elite playmaker.

Image

Gobert-Reid pairing is a winning combo.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#810 » by KGdaBom » Wed Jul 23, 2025 11:07 am

minimus wrote:Then you can add tertiary playmaking options like Rob, who has already flashed some intriguing reads:

Read on Twitter



It's so much fun watching Dilly to Le Berricade lobs.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#811 » by Klomp » Wed Jul 23, 2025 7:16 pm

This might not be what everyone else believes, but my assertion is that the Timberwolves want to put shooting/scoring threats in the backcourt with Edwards rather than just facilitators. That's why you see him paired with guys like DiVincenzo, Dillingham or Alexander-Walker. It isn't because those are guys who can facilitate for him, but they can serve as a release valve, draw enough attention away from Edwards as threats to score, and then give the ball back to Ant in a more advantageous position.

I actually believe that at his best, Malcom Brogdon could fill that role. It's interesting looking back, but Brogdon is only two years removed from winning Sixth Man of the Year. He has just been hit so hard by the injury bug. Not just over the past two seasons, but in his career as a whole. He has only played 65 games just twice in his 9-year career: The year he won 6MOY and the year he won ROY. So the question is if he can be at his best still. His per36 numbers really haven't changed much in the past two seasons, but his shooting percentages have tanked. Maybe that's just due to bad supporting casts on tanking teams or maybe he's just fallen off. Either way, if he comes for a minimum it is probably a chance worth taking.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#812 » by KGdaBom » Wed Jul 23, 2025 8:43 pm

Klomp wrote:This might not be what everyone else believes, but my assertion is that the Timberwolves want to put shooting/scoring threats in the backcourt with Edwards rather than just facilitators. That's why you see him paired with guys like DiVincenzo, Dillingham or Alexander-Walker. It isn't because those are guys who can facilitate for him, but they can serve as a release valve, draw enough attention away from Edwards as threats to score, and then give the ball back to Ant in a more advantageous position.

I actually believe that at his best, Malcom Brogdon could fill that role. It's interesting looking back, but Brogdon is only two years removed from winning Sixth Man of the Year. He has just been hit so hard by the injury bug. Not just over the past two seasons, but in his career as a whole. He has only played 65 games just twice in his 9-year career: The year he won 6MOY and the year he won ROY. So the question is if he can be at his best still. His per36 numbers really haven't changed much in the past two seasons, but his shooting percentages have tanked. Maybe that's just due to bad supporting casts on tanking teams or maybe he's just fallen off. Either way, if he comes for a minimum it is probably a chance worth taking.

I've always been a big Brogdon fan, but at this point in his career I want him at vet Minimum or not at all.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#813 » by BlacJacMac » Wed Jul 23, 2025 8:59 pm

Klomp wrote:This might not be what everyone else believes, but my assertion is that the Timberwolves want to put shooting/scoring threats in the backcourt with Edwards rather than just facilitators. That's why you see him paired with guys like DiVincenzo, Dillingham or Alexander-Walker. It isn't because those are guys who can facilitate for him, but they can serve as a release valve, draw enough attention away from Edwards as threats to score, and then give the ball back to Ant in a more advantageous position.

I actually believe that at his best, Malcom Brogdon could fill that role. It's interesting looking back, but Brogdon is only two years removed from winning Sixth Man of the Year. He has just been hit so hard by the injury bug. Not just over the past two seasons, but in his career as a whole. He has only played 65 games just twice in his 9-year career: The year he won 6MOY and the year he won ROY. So the question is if he can be at his best still. His per36 numbers really haven't changed much in the past two seasons, but his shooting percentages have tanked. Maybe that's just due to bad supporting casts on tanking teams or maybe he's just fallen off. Either way, if he comes for a minimum it is probably a chance worth taking.


Last year was likely noise. He shot 29% from 3, but it was on only 56 attempts.

In 2023-24 he shot 44/41/82
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#814 » by FrenchMinnyFan » Thu Jul 24, 2025 1:09 am

Klomp wrote:This might not be what everyone else believes, but my assertion is that the Timberwolves want to put shooting/scoring threats in the backcourt with Edwards rather than just facilitators. That's why you see him paired with guys like DiVincenzo, Dillingham or Alexander-Walker. It isn't because those are guys who can facilitate for him, but they can serve as a release valve, draw enough attention away from Edwards as threats to score, and then give the ball back to Ant in a more advantageous position.

I actually believe that at his best, Malcom Brogdon could fill that role. It's interesting looking back, but Brogdon is only two years removed from winning Sixth Man of the Year. He has just been hit so hard by the injury bug. Not just over the past two seasons, but in his career as a whole. He has only played 65 games just twice in his 9-year career: The year he won 6MOY and the year he won ROY. So the question is if he can be at his best still. His per36 numbers really haven't changed much in the past two seasons, but his shooting percentages have tanked. Maybe that's just due to bad supporting casts on tanking teams or maybe he's just fallen off. Either way, if he comes for a minimum it is probably a chance worth taking.


Totally agree, will a great addition to our team if we get him at the minimum. Actually our weak position is at PG with Mike getting old and we are not sure Rob will make it. Getting Brogdon will be a huge plus.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#815 » by minimus » Thu Jul 24, 2025 6:56 am

minimus wrote:Despite being a top-tier defender, Jaden’s offensive limitations — especially his extremely poor catch-and-shoot numbers — turned him into a 4-on-5 liability in high-leverage moments. And the Wolves had no good replacement: NAW provided similar defensive value, but he’s also not a strong on-ball creator or rim attacker. So even though NAW is a better shooter, the overall offensive value didn’t shift much. Neither of them punish closeouts, break down defenses, or run effectively in transition.


Image

Will add this, but only to show how much of potential MIN still have.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#816 » by minimus » Thu Jul 24, 2025 8:14 am

Klomp wrote:Kobe: 1,141/828 = 1.38 assists to turnovers, first five seasons
Ant: 1,600/1,099 = 1.46 assists to turnovers, first five seasons


I have quoted Klomp from another thread because over the past few months, the discussion around turnovers has often lacked nuance. But if I take a step back, this problem is far more layered and interesting than it looks on the surface. And understanding the context helps frame a better path forward.

Without context, I can end up making hot takes like: “Edwards is better at skip passes than Brunson,” or “Ant is already a more willing passer than Kobe was at 24.” But there’s more to it.

Owen Phillips recently shared a fascinating breakdown of the “turnover economy”. That sounds counterintuitive, but it explains how someone like Haliburton — often labeled the best pass-first PG in the NBA — is also one of the most efficient ISO scorers in the league.

For example, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the single biggest impact on limiting his team’s turnovers this season, according to Engelmann’s numbers. Meanwhile, Alex Caruso had the single biggest impact on his team’s ability to generate opponent turnovers.

With both players on the same team, it’s no wonder the Thunder have been able to lap the field in turnover differential.

While the Thunder are in a league of their own in terms of the turnover economy, the Wolves, Pacers, and Knicks have found themselves in the green in this year’s postseason as well.

The Minnesota Timberwolves can be sloppy with the ball, but they’ve made up for it by being aggressive on defense and forcing more turnovers than they commit in the postseason. When Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are engaged on defense, it’s like watching a pack velociraptors rip into their prey.

On the other end of the spectrum is the Indiana Pacers. They’ve been so-so at forcing turnovers, but great at avoiding them. Few players are better at taking care of the ball than Tyrese Haliburton. In fact, according to Englemann’s site, Haliburton had the 4th highest impact on limiting his team’s turnovers this season. Somewhat surprising for someone who makes as many daring passes as he does.


Image

Image

So, yes, the simplified solution for the Wolves’ turnover issues might sound like:
- Make Ant a better passer
- Find an elite pass-first PG

But the more advanced solution includes:
- Continue to develop Edwards as a smarter playmaker, ISO scorer, and decision-maker
- Continue to build defensive schemes that generate more opponent turnovers (MIN are already elite at this)
- Win on the margins: fastbreak points (a lot of room to improve!), 50/50 balls, offensive rebounds (MIN are already elite at this)
- Capitalize on passing and spot-up shooting while the opponent’s defense isn’t set (a lot of room to improve)
- Find an low profile, low maintenance pass-first PG

One big contextual difference: Brunson and Haliburton run their offenses with five-out spacing alongside stretch bigs like Turner. Ant and the Wolves, on the other hand, often have to adjust late in games without Gobert (due to fit issues), limiting how cleanly they can replicate that system.

But ultimately, it’s encouraging to realize that fixing the turnover problem isn’t only about finding a pass-first PG or forcing Ant into being an elite distributor. There are multiple paths to improvement — and we’re already on a few of them.

https://thef5.substack.com/p/turnover-economy
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#817 » by minimus » Thu Jul 24, 2025 8:46 am

Klomp wrote:This might not be what everyone else believes, but my assertion is that the Timberwolves want to put shooting/scoring threats in the backcourt with Edwards rather than just facilitators. That's why you see him paired with guys like DiVincenzo, Dillingham or Alexander-Walker. It isn't because those are guys who can facilitate for him, but they can serve as a release valve, draw enough attention away from Edwards as threats to score, and then give the ball back to Ant in a more advantageous position.

I actually believe that at his best, Malcom Brogdon could fill that role. It's interesting looking back, but Brogdon is only two years removed from winning Sixth Man of the Year. He has just been hit so hard by the injury bug. Not just over the past two seasons, but in his career as a whole. He has only played 65 games just twice in his 9-year career: The year he won 6MOY and the year he won ROY. So the question is if he can be at his best still. His per36 numbers really haven't changed much in the past two seasons, but his shooting percentages have tanked. Maybe that's just due to bad supporting casts on tanking teams or maybe he's just fallen off. Either way, if he comes for a minimum it is probably a chance worth taking.


What about his defense? He kind of looked slow last year...
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#818 » by Devilzsidewalk » Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:40 pm

minimus wrote:
minimus wrote:Despite being a top-tier defender, Jaden’s offensive limitations — especially his extremely poor catch-and-shoot numbers — turned him into a 4-on-5 liability in high-leverage moments. And the Wolves had no good replacement: NAW provided similar defensive value, but he’s also not a strong on-ball creator or rim attacker. So even though NAW is a better shooter, the overall offensive value didn’t shift much. Neither of them punish closeouts, break down defenses, or run effectively in transition.


Image

Will add this, but only to show how much of potential MIN still have.


I felt a lot better about McDaniels on offense the latter half of the season. He's starting to get kinda filthy with that hanging short range jumper off his drives. It's also possible he's somewhat of a victim of surrounding personnel which forces him to spend an outsized percentage of his time further away from the rim and being guarded by faster players than what would be ideal. I always wanted him to get more minutes at the 4 than was realistic.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#819 » by FrenchMinnyFan » Fri Jul 25, 2025 12:43 am

minimus wrote:
Klomp wrote:Kobe: 1,141/828 = 1.38 assists to turnovers, first five seasons
Ant: 1,600/1,099 = 1.46 assists to turnovers, first five seasons


I have quoted Klomp from another thread because over the past few months, the discussion around turnovers has often lacked nuance. But if I take a step back, this problem is far more layered and interesting than it looks on the surface. And understanding the context helps frame a better path forward.

Without context, I can end up making hot takes like: “Edwards is better at skip passes than Brunson,” or “Ant is already a more willing passer than Kobe was at 24.” But there’s more to it.

Owen Phillips recently shared a fascinating breakdown of the “turnover economy”. That sounds counterintuitive, but it explains how someone like Haliburton — often labeled the best pass-first PG in the NBA — is also one of the most efficient ISO scorers in the league.

For example, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the single biggest impact on limiting his team’s turnovers this season, according to Engelmann’s numbers. Meanwhile, Alex Caruso had the single biggest impact on his team’s ability to generate opponent turnovers.

With both players on the same team, it’s no wonder the Thunder have been able to lap the field in turnover differential.

While the Thunder are in a league of their own in terms of the turnover economy, the Wolves, Pacers, and Knicks have found themselves in the green in this year’s postseason as well.

The Minnesota Timberwolves can be sloppy with the ball, but they’ve made up for it by being aggressive on defense and forcing more turnovers than they commit in the postseason. When Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are engaged on defense, it’s like watching a pack velociraptors rip into their prey.

On the other end of the spectrum is the Indiana Pacers. They’ve been so-so at forcing turnovers, but great at avoiding them. Few players are better at taking care of the ball than Tyrese Haliburton. In fact, according to Englemann’s site, Haliburton had the 4th highest impact on limiting his team’s turnovers this season. Somewhat surprising for someone who makes as many daring passes as he does.


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So, yes, the simplified solution for the Wolves’ turnover issues might sound like:
- Make Ant a better passer
- Find an elite pass-first PG

But the more advanced solution includes:
- Continue to develop Edwards as a smarter playmaker, ISO scorer, and decision-maker
- Continue to build defensive schemes that generate more opponent turnovers (MIN are already elite at this)
- Win on the margins: fastbreak points (a lot of room to improve!), 50/50 balls, offensive rebounds (MIN are already elite at this)
- Capitalize on passing and spot-up shooting while the opponent’s defense isn’t set (a lot of room to improve)
- Find an low profile, low maintenance pass-first PG

One big contextual difference: Brunson and Haliburton run their offenses with five-out spacing alongside stretch bigs like Turner. Ant and the Wolves, on the other hand, often have to adjust late in games without Gobert (due to fit issues), limiting how cleanly they can replicate that system.

But ultimately, it’s encouraging to realize that fixing the turnover problem isn’t only about finding a pass-first PG or forcing Ant into being an elite distributor. There are multiple paths to improvement — and we’re already on a few of them.

https://thef5.substack.com/p/turnover-economy


Great post Minimum as usual. I also wonder why we focus on ANT turnover only when for me this issue is more a team issue. Randle, DDV... turn also the ball over a lot too. We were 18 last year in turnover ranking which is way too much and we should try to be top 10. And it's also about the momentum of the game. We turnover the ball when we slow down , unable to score and rely only on ANT or Randle hero ball. This has to be a team effort. Offer better solutions to the ball handler, slow down the pace, don't try to overplay, time out timing from Finch.... there is a lot of room for improvement.

And i don't know why but i got the feeling that we will have a pleasant surprise this year.

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