Ben Wallace

[the_bruce]

I like having wallace in his 3rd year as an expiring with a likely top 10 pick from MN it could net some serious value in trades.

MN Lineups:
xxx(CHI08\MIA\BOS\MN 09??)
Al
Beasly\Green
Brewer\Mccants
Foye

or

Jordan
Al
Brewer
McCants
Foye

or

xxx(CHI08\MIA\BOS\MN 09??)
Al
Brewer
Foye
Rose

Al of those lineups look pretty good imo, and who knows what team will implode in 3 years and be willing to give up a allstar caliber player for an expiring contract and a mid lotto pick 5-10?

[casey]

Do you really think we will have enough cap space to do anything with in 2009? I personally doubt it. I see this deal as a way of shorting Jaric's contract, but also bringing in a pick that will likely be top-10 this year. (curious what the protection would be next year) I also think Ben Wallace could be an influence on Al and the other bigs and benefit this team.

Unless we do something stupid in the next year and a half, yeah we probably will have some cap space to work with in 09.

[horaceworthy]

Do you really think we will have enough cap space to do anything with in 2009? I personally doubt it. I see this deal as a way of shorting Jaric's contract, but also bringing in a pick that will likely be top-10 this year. (curious what the protection would be next year) I also think Ben Wallace could be an influence on Al and the other bigs and benefit this team.

We'll probably be around $10+ million under the cap, depending on how the situations with Gomes, Bassy, Smith and Green play out. If we keep two of those guys, it'll probably be around $10 million (depending on which two), if we keep more, the number will go down, if we let them all walk, we might even have a full max contract to work with.

[PeeDee]

I'm too lazy to look, are there even going to be any good free agents in '09?

[Krapinsky]

-= original quote snipped =-


Unless we do something stupid in the next year and a half, yeah we probably will have some cap space to work with in 09.

Here's what we have on the books entering the 2009/2010 season:

Jaric $7,100,000 + $7,625,000
Jefferson $13,000,000 + $13,000,000 + $13,000,000 + $13,000,000
Foye $3,575,761 + $4,795,096(qualifying
Brewer $2,916,120 + $3,703,472 + $4,966,356(qualifying)
Madsen $2,840,000
McCants $3,644,595(qualifying)
------------------------------
Total $33,076,476

If we sign a first rounder this year, and two next year. (estimated)

2008 pick $3,000,000 + $3.5M + $4M + $4.5M(qualifying)
2009 pick1 $2,500,000 + $3.M + $3.5M + $4M + $4.5M(qualifying)
2009 pick2 $2,500,000 + $3.M + $3.5M + $4M + $4.5M(qualifying)
-----------------------------------
Total above $33,076,476
Total picks $8,000,000
------------------------------
New Total = $41,076,476 = 9 players.

At this point there would be six roster spots left. I would assume two of those players might be Gomes/Smith/Telfair/GG. Any two of those players should mean roughly $7M more in salary. (this is just a rough guesstimate: Gomes + Smith might equal $9M, while Telfair + GG might equal only $5M.

Two players resigned out of Gomes/Smith/Telfair/GG.

+ 7M
-------------------
New Total = $48,076,476 = 11 players

Still four roster spots left. These spots should be filled up with additional players at the vet minimum or 2nd round rookie contracts.

Four players of some cobination of 2nd rounder and or min. vets.

+ 4.5M
-----------------------
New total = $52,576,476 = 16 players.


If the salary cap keeps growing at approximately $2M/yr, the salary cap in 2009 should be approximately $60,000,000.

What all this means:

If we keep the roster in tact and are unable to dump Jaric/Madsen we will have about $8.5M to spend on a player. If by 2009 we are able to dump Jaric for an expiring we would have more than $15M to spend on a player. If we are able to dump both we could have up to $17M to spend on one player. If we bought one or both out we would have cap space between the two figures. This is the best case scenario. All of which assumes no trades and no stupid signings before the 2009 season.

[Krapinsky]

sorry that was so long.

Entering 2009/2010 the best of the 2005 draft class will be mostly restricted free agents.

http://nbadraft.net/2005.asp

Just to name a few...

Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Marvin Williams
Raymond felton
Andrew Bynum
Martell Webster
Channing Frye
Rashad Mccants
Danny Granger

[yojimbo]

Ben Wallace has been simply wretched this year. He has the familiar look of an old guy who got paid. I'm not sure that's the kind of influence we want on Wolves. A guy like that really belongs on the Knicks.

Not surprised Bulls fans are warm to the idea of dumping him - Chicago fans are particularly intolerant of laziness from any player (except the Cubbies, where hope is futile).

[chrbal]

Thoughts?

Neither team should ever do this trade. Wallace is pretty the "anti" of what the Wolves should be doing. Jaric and Walker might suck, but at least they would be easier to move then Wallaces" $15 mil a year.

For the Bulls Wallace is having a poor season...but so is the team. I think that is more about the Skiles situation then anything else. Walker would never see any playing time and is pretty much the "anti" of what they should be getting and Jaric is garbage and a poor fit for Chicago.

Marko would make more sense with say Toronto, Phoenix, or even Dallas (Maybe).

[shrink]

Great post Dr.Krapinsky. 2009 is the light at the end of our financial tunnel.

The only addition I'd make is that I think we'll be doing our best to get mileage out of our 2nd rounder from 2008 (perhaps picks 31 and 32) and while I have little faith in second rounders, I would hope one of them works out.

Nice write up.

[revprodeji]

I dont know. I see that pick from Chicago (likely top 10 this year, or whatever protection next year) as very valuable. I see Wallace's influence and impact as very valuable as well. And I see the higher ending contract of Wallace as potentially worth more than having the cap space.

There are a couple teams that are looking to make a splash in the summer of 2009. So we would be betting against one of them. Now, lets say we have a huge expiring contract (Wallace) it gives us the advantage of making a deadline trade for one of the players we want. A team that is about to lose a player would rather make a sign/trade then lose them outright.

I do not like our odds in a bidding war, but a large expiring in a sign in trade has value. Also if we have a top 4 (ours) and a top 10 (chi) this year it would allow us to be more productive and deeper faster.

Depending on the protection Chi has for the next year I would do this deal.

(I also think Jaric would not be as bad of a fit as was suggested above. I think Gordan and him would fit each other well)

[casey]

[quote="Dr.Krapinsky"][/quote]
If we're gonna get exact, here's what I got:

Players
Jefferson: $11.65Mil
McCants: $7.86Mil (cap hit)
Jaric: $7.1Mil
Foye: $3.58Mil
Brewer: $2.92Mil
Madsen: $2.84Mil
Buckner: $1.06Mil (guaranteed)
Total: $37.21Mil

Picks (estimated position)
2008 1st: $3.13Mil (4th pick)
2008 2nd (mia): $0.73Mil
2009 1st: $2.72Mil (5th pick)
2009 1st (mia): $1.40Mil (15th pick)
2009 1st (bos): $0.90Mil (25th pick)
2009 2nd: $0.46Mil
Total: $9.34Mil

$46.55Mil - 12 players

Now I would imagine if McCants signs an extension it would be for less than that, so it could go down a bit from there. And who knows who we'll resign this summer. I can't imagine Green coming back, but I would expect at least one of Smith, Gomes, and Telfair to resign. The big thing would be trading Jaric and/or Madsen for a shorter contract. We could likely afford a max contract player if we were able to get rid of Jaric. Not that Taylor would spend the money, but we'd have the ability to at least.

[Krapinsky]

That looks a little bit more spot on Casey. Where did you get Al's cap number though? In 2009 I've seen it for 13 and I've seen it for 12, but not 11.65. The Buckner gurantee I was not aware of. If you add that we'll keep two of our players from Gomes/Smith/Green/Telfair for $7M we both come w/in $1M of eachother. Pretty good.

Here's a great list of possible 2009 FA's from the portland board

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=713795


This might seem odd to some of you, but out of Gomes/Smith/Telfair/Green, the one I'd most want to resign is Green. I know he hasn't shown much this year, but he hasn't been given much of a chance, and he is still young.

Out of all four players he has the highest ceiling and the potential to fill what I feel is our greatest need- a three point shooter who can spread the floor out. I would hate to see him blossom after leaving like Tmac did when he left the raptors.

[Krapinsky]

A few more things about this trade:

Using Casey's number's, if we do this trade our payroll in 2009 would be about $7-$8 million higher, which would effectively limit any potential free agent to being the equivalent of a mid-level player or worse. In the mean-time I think our own picks would be worse in 2008 and 2009. Even a depleted Wallace compared to a replacement center of ours should mean probably about 5 more wins.

Who says Chicago's pick is going to be top 10? This is a team that could easily turn it around. Inserting Noah into the starting lineup instead of Wallace just might be the thing that does it. Perhaps it's an additional trade which nets them Pau Gasol. Or perhaps it's the passing of the trade deadline where the players won't have to worry about being traded anymore-- something that has undoubtedly bothered them.

Assuming it's a top 15 pick, is it really worth it? There seems to be a large drop off in talent after about 10 players this year. Hardin may be available at 15, but he's a good backup center at best. Is he that much of an improvement over Richards?

Doesn't this trade still put us into luxury tax territory in 2008?

[casey]

I figured since it's $65mil for 5 years, then with maximum 10.5% raises that's what it would come out to (though i actually miscalculated, it would be $11.87mil). I don't know if that's the way it is actually structured, but that's what I've been going with until i find something definitive on it.

[shrink]

Good list casey. Does Buckner's $1 mil guarantee if we want to buy him out count against our cap? I guess it's possible, guaranteeing him future salary, but it seems odd since we'd be ending his salary in the summer of 2009. It never really occured to me.

[JBoog35]

That list of 2009 Free Agents does not include a Defensive center. The only player that might work would be Amare Stoudemire, but I doubt PHO lets him go. Nash will retire and Marion will leave. All the money will go to Amare.

The only other scenario I see is if Foye does not work at the point. Bibby, Kidd, Andre Miller, and Baron Davis will want to play on teams with championship potential. In 09' our team will not be there. I can't see us making much of a splash in 09'

With that being said. I think the wolves should do the deal. Get a top 10-12 pick from Chicago. Continue to get young. We will get Wallaces contract off the books after 09'. Try to get a PG or C, depending on what we need in 10'. Our inability to land big free agents make me think we should jump at the chance to gain a lotto pick and BUILD!

[Worm Guts]

That list of 2009 Free Agents does not include a Defensive center. The only player that might work would be Amare Stoudemire, but I doubt PHO lets him go. Nash will retire and Marion will leave. All the money will go to Amare.

The only other scenario I see is if Foye does not work at the point. Bibby, Kidd, Andre Miller, and Baron Davis will want to play on teams with championship potential. In 09' our team will not be there. I can't see us making much of a splash in 09'

With that being said. I think the wolves should do the deal. Get a top 10-12 pick from Chicago. Continue to get young. We will get Wallaces contract off the books after 09'. Try to get a PG or C, depending on what we need in 10'. Our inability to land big free agents make me think we should jump at the chance to gain a lotto pick and BUILD!

Being under the cap also gives us the ability to take back more salary in a trade than we give out. We could also trade a couple of our young pieces for a veteran who would make us more attractive free agency. The main thing is we would have the flexibility to do a lot of different things.

[shrink]

To make the deal work under the CBA, I had to add Adrian Griffin. It breaks down like this:



Antoine Walker $8,329,640 $9,052,460
Theo Ratliff $11,666,666
Marko Jaric $6,050,000 $6,575,000 $7,100,000 $7,625,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
26.0 15.6 7.1 7.6

Ben Wallace $15,500,000 $14,500,000 $14,000,000
Chris Duhon $3,248,000
Adrian Griffin $1,593,000 $1,711,000
pick $2,535,720 $2,725,920 $2,916,120 $3,703,472
Viktor Khryapa $1,928,598 $2,792,609
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24.7 18.9 16.9 3.7

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2007-08 +1.3
2008-09 -3.3
2009-10 -9.8
2010-11 +3.7
-----------------
TOTAL -$8.1

However, I assume disposing of Duhon for GSW's TPE would be an easy thing, or sending Duhon + Griffin to ORL for Garrity's expiring would be a breeze, so the deal comes out costing us about $5 mil. However, $10 mil is locked into the pick, so its like getting the pick as half price!

One last note about the pick -- I used the salaries for a #7 pick, but it could be much higher. The East is weak, and CHI is only three games out of the play-offs.

To me, the worst that can be said about the deal financially is that it delays our look at free agency a season, and that Ben Wallace is a far less movable contract than Walker or Jaric.