Eye on the Prize (Current Standings)

D1SGRUNTL3D · Post #121 » by **D1SGRUNTL3D** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 5:39 am

it only happens to minnesota.

ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

shrink · Post #122 » by **shrink** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 12:31 pm

1. 14-65 MIA
2. 18-62 SEA

3. 21-59 MIN ( @DET, vs MIL )
4. 22-58 MEM ( @POR, @DEN )
5. 23-57 NYK (vs BOS, @IND)
6. 23-57 LAC (@NO, @HOU)

TEAM 1000 PICK 1 PICK 2 PICK 3
Team 1 250 25.00% 21.51% 17.77%
Team 2 199 19.90% 18.81% 17.12%
Team 3 156 15.60% 15.74% 15.59%
Team 4 119 11.90% 12.60% 13.30%
Team 5 88 8.80% 9.66% 10.68%
Team 6 63 6.30% 7.10% 8.12%

Schedule, and opponents' situation

Monday:

BOS @ NYK Boston has clinched home court advantage throughout the playoffs

Tuesday:

MIN @ DET Pistons have clinched #2 spot in East, and only LAL and NOH can tie

MEM @ POR #13 pick in draft, no matter what happens last two games

LAC @ NOH Five teams in West could catch NOH for #1 seed in West

Wednesday:

MIL @ MIN MIL is locked into #7 slot in lottery

MEM @ DEN A DEN win or GSW loss in Game #81 may make this game meaningless

NYK @ IND An ATL win or IND loss in Game #81 keeps Pacers from 8th seed. Nets could tie record.

LAC @ HOU Playoff seeding in the West will probably still be on the line for HOU

shrink · Post #123 » by **shrink** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 5:31 am

Tonight, NYK lost to BOS, so they could still tie our record.

IND lost, and was eliminated from the play-offs. A disheartened Pacer team plays their last game against the Knicks on Wednesday.

GSW was eliminated from the play-offs as well, so SEA has a chance at a 20-win season. However, this puts DEN in, and they may rest their starters in Game #82 against Memphis Wednesday.

1. 14-67 MIA (vs ATL)
2. 19-62 SEA (@GSW)
3. 21-59 MIN ( @DET, vs MIL )
4. 22-58 MEM ( @POR, @DEN )
5. 23-58 NYK ( @IND)
6. 23-57 LAC (@NO, @HOU)

TEAM 1000 PICK 1 PICK 2 PICK 3
Team 1 250 25.00% 21.51% 17.77%
Team 2 199 19.90% 18.81% 17.12%
Team 3 156 15.60% 15.74% 15.59%
Team 4 119 11.90% 12.60% 13.30%
Team 5 88 8.80% 9.66% 10.68%
Team 6 63 6.30% 7.10% 8.12%

SCHEDULE AND OPPONENT'S SITUATION

We all know the lottery implications for the teams near us in record. I wanted to include the implication for the opponents as well, so we could mroe accurately assess each team's chance of winning.

TUESDAY:

MIN @ DET Pistons have clinched #2 spot in East, and only LAL and NOH can tie

MEM @ POR POR has #13 pick in draft, no matter what happens last two games

LAC @ NOH Five teams in West could catch NOH for #1 seed in West

WEDNESDAY:

MIL @ MIN MIL is locked into #7 slot in lottery

MEM @ DEN DEN clinched, so this game is meaningless to them.

NYK @ IND Pacers are eliminated, but Nets could tie them.

LAC @ HOU Playoff seeding in the West will probably still be on the line for HOU

collin_k41 · Post #124 » by **collin_k41** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:45 am

We lost to detroit so if memphis beats portland tonight we're locked in to 3rd?

deeney0 · Post #125 » by **deeney0** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:00 am

Correct.

shrink · Post #126 » by **shrink** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:45 am

On the penultimate night of the NBA season, the third fourth and fifth teams all lost. Our loss, however, eliminates NYK and LAC from catching us, so we have the third spot in the lottery. MEM can tie us (and share our ping pong balls, if we win tomorrow and the Grizzlies lose.

1. 14-67 MIA (vs ATL )

2. 19-62 SEA (@GSW )

3. 21-60 MIN ( vs MIL )

4. 22-59 MEM ( @DEN )

5. 23-58 NYK ( @IND )
6. 23-58 LAC ( @HOU )

TEAM 1000 PICK 1 PICK 2 PICK 3
Team 1 250 25.00% 21.51% 17.77%
Team 2 199 19.90% 18.81% 17.12%
Team 3 156 15.60% 15.74% 15.59%
Team 4 119 11.90% 12.60% 13.30%
Team 5 88 8.80% 9.66% 10.68%
Team 6 63 6.30% 7.10% 8.12%

SCHEDULE AND OPPONENT'S SITUATION

We all know the lottery implications for the teams near us in record. I wanted to include the implication for the opponents as well, so we could mroe accurately assess each team's chance of winning.

WEDNESDAY:

MIL @ MIN MIL is locked into #7 slot in lottery. Last game they gave up 151 points to the Bulls, as if they didn't care about defense. MIL has lost seven straight. They are without Mo williams, but play Redd, bogut, and brought back villanueva from injury. This is a game we might win.

MEM @ DEN DEN will be motivated, because they could move up the #7 seed if they win, and DAL loses its third in a row. Tonight the Lakers clinched the #1 seed, and the Hornets the #2 seed. Dallas (#7) hosts NOH two hours earlier than MEM plays DEN.

IF Dallas is losing/lost, and IF Denver would prefer playing the Hornets to the Lakers, they may decide not to rest their best players. Most likely though, DEN is going to be taking it easy, and making it harder for MEM to lose.

shrink · Post #127 » by **shrink** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:02 am

I figured I should give you the full lottery probabilities, including losing the lottery, to give you a better feel for the #3 slots value

1st pick: 15.6%
2nd pick: 15.7%
3rd pick: 15.6%
4th pick: 22.6%
5th pick: 26.5%
6th pick: 4.1%

Notice that if we finish alone with the third-from-bottom record, we have less than a 1-in-3 chance of getting a Top Two pick.

If we tied our record with MEM tomorrow night, we'd share ping pong balls for the lottery, and both of our lottery chances would be:

1st pick: 13.7%
2nd pick: 14.1%
3rd pick: 14.4%
4th pick: 9.9%
5th pick: 35.0%
6th pick: 16.1%
7th pick: 1.3%

As a reminder, if neither MIN or MEM were selected for a top 3 lottery pick, a coin would be flipped to determine draft order. If we won, we'd have the odds for 4-6 that I listed initially. If we lost, we'd pick behind MEM, and have the probabilities of the fourth seed.

deeney0 · Post #128 » by **deeney0** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:05 am

So, final odds:

Win the coin flip:
#1: 13.80%
#2: 14.24%
#3: 14.54%
#4: 23.82%
#5: 29.05%
#6: 4.55%

Lose the coin flip:
#1: 13.70%
#2: 14.16%
#3: 14.48%
#4: 8.51%
#5: 32.33%
#6: 15.57%
#7: 1.26%

shrink · Post #129 » by **shrink** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:32 am

I didn't watch the last game, but I was disappointed when I got home and found out they won, and the Grizzlies lost. I can't watch a game and hope the Wolves lose, but if I don't see it, this last week I was hoping for losses.

The Wolves finish the season winning 3 of their last 4.

As I was mentioning last week, because of the schedule, SEA won its last two games. If we hadn't won three games late, we could have ended tied with them.

Post #130 » by **TheFranchise21** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:40 am

So who gets the third most lottery balls? Us or Memphis?

D1SGRUNTL3D · Post #131 » by **D1SGRUNTL3D** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:41 pm

split in half.

we each have an equal chance of gettin a top 3 pick, percentage wise now.

before it was 15.8 to like 11.7 in favor of minnesota.

deeney0 · Post #132 » by **deeney0** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:23 pm

TheFranchise21 wrote:So who gets the third most lottery balls? Us or Memphis?

The balls are split, but since there is an odd number, there is a coin flip for the extra ball and who goes first in the event that neither team picks in the top three.

Post #133 » by **revprodeji** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:02 pm

I see this draft as a 6 man draft, as long as we get one of those 6 I am good.

horaceworthy · Post #134 » by **horaceworthy** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:45 pm

I see it more as a 3 man draft in terms of players I'd be uber-stoked about, then with a handful or so of players after that I'd be good with.

deeney0 · Post #135 » by **deeney0** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 1:41 am

Four man draft for me. Top 2, next 2, the field.