MIN-ATL-DEN

[shrink]

See if you can catch the twist in this one for MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

Incoming Players
Zaza Pachulia Salary: $4,000,000 Years Remaining: 1
Linas Kleiza Salary: $1,824,493 Years Remaining: 1
Chucky Atkins Salary: $3,240,000 Years Remaining: 1

Outgoing Players: Jason Collins, Mike Miller

Atlanta Hawks

Incoming Players
Steven Hunter Salary: $3,862,600 Years Remaining: 2
Allen Iverson Salary: $20,840,625 Years Remaining: 1

Outgoing Players: Zaza Pachulia, Mike Bibby

Denver Nuggets

Incoming Players
Jason Collins Salary: $6,200,000 Years Remaining: 1
Mike Miller Salary: $9,028,575 Years Remaining: 2
Mike Bibby Salary: $14,983,603 Years Remaining: 1

Outgoing Players: Steven Hunter, Linas Kleiza, Allen Iverson, Chucky Atkins

Hawks: Have been inerested in AI for a while and get him for next to nothing. Since Johnson can handle the ball, shoot the three, and play solid D he is a great backcourt mate for AI.

Nuggets: Get more of a PG in Bibby and a sick scoring rotation on the wings with Melo/Miller/JR. Collins plays some minutes off the bench in the front court.

Minny: Cuts some salary and gets a good young prospect in Linas Kleiza. Zaza is an upgrade over Collins.

I've been quickly dismissing these deals Collins + Mike Miller deals that "save us salary" because Collins is already and expiring, and Mike Miller is worth both years in the $9's to me. But eslr did something a little interesting here. He made a deal so big elsewhere that we'd basically drop the price of Collins contract immediately. Instead of most deals where we save the last year of Miller's contract, in this deal we send out $15 mil and take in $9.. The 25% salary matching doesn't apply for decreasing your payroll .. only increasing it. Kleiza isn't a bad prospect, and Zaza and Atkins would both see minutes on the floor.

I don't think this is a bad offer, but I'd say "no." First, I like Mike Miller, for his fit, his vet experience, and the fact that he wants to be here. Second, what are we really going to do with the $6 mil this year anyway? Third, I don't know if we'd be able to keep Kleiza anyway. We'd probably make a qualifying offer, but I don't know if we'd match if someone went higher -- or even more worrisome "longer" past 2010. If this was Mike Miller + Brian Cardinal, I'd probably be swayed.

Anyway, I posted it over here because I thought the deal was clever.

[wolves_fan_82au]

we so need more than that for mike miller ,and i would rather keep collins i reckon he would fit well as a backup centre in minnesota

[john2jer]

Mike Miller I love. Jason Collins I'm fine with as a back-up center. We're not really losing anything here that I'd want to get rid of.

I like Kleiza, but like you said, he wouldn't stick around. And isn't Keliza's game kind of similar to Kevin Love's? Kleiza's probably a little bit better outside shooter, but Love's no slouch. Love's a better outlet passer and probably stronger, but Kleiza doesn't exactly seem weak in those areas either. And they kinda look a like. Hmm, put them on the floor at the same time and the defense would be confused on who's guarding who. Kleiza doesn't seem to be what we're looking for, and to give up our only 7 footer and probably our 2nd best player, we'd better get something we're looking for.

Minnesota isn't really interested in cutting salary unless it's Brian Cardinal's deal. Cardinal's deal is the only bad one. Madsen's we wouldn't mind getting rid of, but he's a good guy, waves a towel like no other, and it's not really much of a deal anyways. Someone has to sit at the end.

[shrink]

Mike Miller (2 years) >= Kleiza + Pachulia + Atkins + $9 mil off 2009

Collins < $6 mil TPE. (which we would gain after this deal),

Together ... ???

I really want to see what Mike Miller can do, but he does eat minutes that we could throw at Brewer, McCants and Carney, if we have any faith in him. Of course, it costs us wins, but is that really so important? Kleiza we could try to re-sign, or if we thought we couldn't, trade him closer to the deadline. Pachulia = Collins to me on the court, and Atkins wasn't bad last year.

Note what this makes the Kevin Love trade though, if we can exchange Collins for Cardinal:

#3 + Jaric (3 yr) + Walker (exp) + Buckner (exp)

for

#5 + Collins (exp) + Kleiza (exp) + Pachulia (exp) + Atkins (exp) + $6 mil TPE

Wow. And McHale wanted Love anyway!

I'm starting to warm to this deal. If they made it Cardinal, I'd jump in, even it meant Kleiza was out of the deal. Either way, I like the creativity though.

[shrink]

OK, I know I need to leave this deal alone, because nobody wants to lose Mike Miller for money, but I played with it again, and came up with some very serious coin. This version takes ATL to right up to their lux, adds some salary to DEN (DEN posters say they are trying to win now .. Camby was dealt for the TPE before he lost all value). I tried to maximize talent for DEN/ATL, and maximize cap savings for us.

I took a longer look at this deal, and when I worked this trade through the RealGM Trade Checker and ESPN's, and it comes up a little short financially on the ATL side. Sending out Solomon Jones contract works nicely.

However, there are bigger problems. MIN puts Mike Miller in the deal to get major cap relief, but who's going to pay it? ATL's got about $5 mil of Childress money, but would DEN go farther into the lux? I have my doubts.

If DEN and ATL wanted to be more competitive this season, and MIN insisted on moving Brian Cardinal, it could shake down this way:


MIN GIVES: Mike Miller (2 yr), Cardinal (2 yr)
MIN GETS: Atkins (exp), Solomon Jones (exp)

Compared to the old deal, MIN dumps Cardinal instead of Collins, but doesn't get Kleiza or Pachulia, so its all about talent for cap space. MIN clears $11.3 mil this year ( a giant, tradable TPE), and $16 mil next year, but losing out on Mike Miller costs games and maybe fans.

DEN GIVES: Iverson (exp), Hunter (2 yr), Atkins (exp)
DEN GETS: Bibby (exp), Mike Miller (2 yr), Cardinal (2 yr), Pachulia (exp)

Upgrades, to the tune of +$6.3 mil this year. A DEN poster tells me that the Nuggets aren't looking to retool and get under the lux, and the Camby trade was because Camby was done. If that;s true, this gives them two years for a better run. Next year, Bibby and Zaza expire (about the same as Iverson), to pay for Mike Miller + Cardinal for an additional year. None of these contracts run into the 2010 free agency. Zaza fills Hunter's back-up role, Bibby and Miller would add more scoring, and they keep Kleiza in this deal.

ATL GIVES: Bibby, Pachulia, Solomon Jones
ATL GETS: Iverson, Hunter

Hunter's deal is about $4 mil for two years, so that's probably fair. All the other deals are expiring, the contracts don't take ATL into the lux, and this is a fair price for Iverson.

[digitaldropoff]

ZaZa is not what this team needs. We need bruisers, guys that can play inside and defend...that's the opposite of the Za..

[john2jer]

With the current state of the Wolves, I don't see why we're looking to shed more salary. If the idea is to attract a free agent, getting rid of Mike Miller doesn't make us more attractive. Next year he'll still be on the roster, and the '09 FA class is pretty good. In 2010 we'll have the option to re-sign him to maybe a slightly better number around 7-8 mil along with a potential star FA, if we find someone who wants to come to Minnesota.

If we do the trade, we're back to Al Jefferson and a bunch of kids that I'm sure no star FA wants to play with.

Miller's game will help attract people to Minnesota.

That's all of course if we think we can go the free agent route.

Otherwise our goal should be to trade for a star. Moving Mike Miller for crappy expiring players doesn't make it easier for us to trade for that player. Those expirings would be gone before next year, and cap space alone isn't going to get a trade done unless it's an aging star on a team ready to blow it all up, read: Allen Iverson. That's not what we want either.

I think our best bet is to stand pat unless a monster deal comes out of no where, which is unlikely to happen.

I know that makes for boring realgm boards, but I have yet to see a scenario in which trading Mike Miller makes us a better team in the short or long run.