Wizards' pick available?

Mayoistooslow · Post #1 » by **Mayoistooslow** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 1:58 am

Been hearing rumors about how the Wizards are not in love with the idea of hanging onto their pick this year. I believe we could put together a nice package for it if we take on a contract.

hotshotschamp · Post #2 » by **hotshotschamp** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 2:24 am

Not sure I really want the pick unless Rubio enters the draft and you can get him.

The twolves themselves will have a top 5 probably and who knows could get lucky and win lotto. Not to mention we have 4 probable first rounders with the way utah is going.

I think we only will take on 2 rookies, probably package picks and stuff. I'm not sure taking a bad contract and whatever is worth it if you are getting say a Harden ( foye is our sg) and just fine there, or whoever else may be there.

I think we are just fine with using our picks and trading the 4 of them for 2 top 10 ones.

shrink · Post #3 » by **shrink** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 2:43 am

I agree with you that the Wizards pick may be available, and making a pitch for it has been something I've been playing with the most for the last three weeks. But before I address trades, let me talk about why I've been so interested in this pick.

The Wizards are in a somewhat perfect storm of events that makes even a lottery pick less valuable to them than to most teams. Let's say the Wizards end up with the 5th pick.

1. The pick adds guaranteed money in 2009-10 ($3,163,680) and 2010-11 ($3,401,040)

2. The Wizards are already over the lux, so that money is doubled, so this pick would cost them $13 mil over the next two years.

3. There is no clearly dominating guy available at #5. Obviously, if the Wiz deal the pick, they'll want to wait until draft night to be sure, but right now, this seems like they'd be paying a lot for a guy that might not be immediate help.

4. While the team has some good young players, they believe that they have the vet talent on the team (Arenas, Butler, Jamison plus Haywood) to be a play-off contender in the East.

5. The wizards already have good young talent on the team, so they aren't so desperate to acquire it from the draft.

6. Abe Polin has been an owner who has notriously wanted to get under the lux. Maybe the Jamison signing changed that, and maybe it didn't, but money is an issue with him, where it might not be with other owners.

7. If the Wizards trade the rights to the pick, there is no salary attached to the 25% + $100,000 match in a bigger trade. If they wait until it becomes a player, then they have to match if they trade the guy away, and they have a harder time dropping their payroll below the lux.

For most of us, we hear rumors about a team willing to trade a top five pick, and we think "I'll believe it when I see it." that skepticism is well-founded in most cases. However, there are so many factors in Washington that encourage seeing the pick be traded, that I believe it is a legitimate possibility.

Post #4 » by **C.lupus** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 2:54 am

I wonder if they would trade the pick for the rights to Pekovic? WAS could save face and save money at the same time. Pekovic would come over in 2010 when Haywood is a FA. MIN could draft Rubio and Thabeet and dominate the NBA.

shrink · Post #5 » by **shrink** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 3:04 am

Good idea. The UTA pick, if its defered, would also be a very nice fit for them, but I got an even better one.

shrink · Post #6 » by **shrink** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 3:42 am

An even more effective use of Stackhouse's $7.25 contract that can be bought out for $2 mil.

DAL GETS: Mike Miller
DAL GIVES: Stackhouse + Shawn Williams

JES's deal. Miller would be great in win-now DAL and he's completely safe as a $9.8 mil expiring.

WAS GETS: Stackhouse + Shawn Williams + UTA pick (2010)
WAS GIVES: Etan + O Pec + WAS 1st

This solves all the salary problems. Etan + OPec make $8.9 and $3.1 for the pick (I'm estimating 5th) costs them $12 mil. Shawn Williams is $1.65 and Stackhouse, after the buy-out cuts it to $2, so that saves $8.35 mil, and an additional $8-$9 mil in lux penalties/share. Late 1sts get sold for $3 .. is $17 + Shawn Williams and the UTA future 1st fair for this pick?

MIN GETS: Etan + O Pec + WAS 1st
MIN GIVES: Mike Miller + 2010 UTA (top 15-17 prot)

MIN gets their lottery pick for only Mike Miller and the ability to sacrifice talent for an overpaid ($8.5 mil with the 15% Trade Kicker) Etan Thomas. MIN gets centers so they aren't forced to draft a center if they miss Thabeet in the draft, but with the WAS pick, they double their chances. We could still try to sign Miller in 2010 free agency if we miss him too much, because Etan and OPec are expirings as well.

theGreatRC · Post #7 » by **theGreatRC** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 3:48 am

hotshotschamp wrote:Not sure I really want the pick unless Rubio enters the draft and you can get him.

The twolves themselves will have a top 5 probably and who knows could get lucky and win lotto. Not to mention we have 4 probable first rounders with the way utah is going.

I think we only will take on 2 rookies, probably package picks and stuff. I'm not sure taking a bad contract and whatever is worth it if you are getting say a Harden ( foye is our backupsg if we want to be contenders) and just fine there, or whoever else may be there.

I think we are just fine with using our picks and trading the 4 of them for 2 top 10 ones.

fixed

Post #8 » by **TheFranchise21** » Mon Mar 9, 2009 4:00 am

I'd be afraid we'd mess up the pick anyway.

Biff Cooper · Post #9 » by **Biff Cooper** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 2:03 am

Late 1sts get sold for $3 .. is $17 + Shawn Williams and the UTA future 1st fair for this pick?

Too tough for us outsiders to tell. If the Wiz were really worried about getting under the lux next year, don't know why they didn't do anything at the trade deadline. Their options now are gonna suck. WIth a fully healthy team and a top 5 draft pick, they could be very competitive in the east next year - if Abe is willing to pay. Didn't you say Abe was one of the poorer owners?

Rakocevicftw · Post #10 » by **Rakocevicftw** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:06 am

It doesn't seem to me that they're likely to be that interested in Rubio (perhaps I'm wrong). With our package of picks, perhaps we could get their pick even without it being a salary dump.