Tradedown/tradeup ideas for this year's draft

[jgozalb]

What's the deal with Rubio's contract situation, will he absolutely play in 2009 or is he caught in limbo at this point?

After what he stated in his presser I would say he has about 95% of playing in the NBA next year.

[Tekkenlaw]

Mark Madsen, Craig Smith, Brian Cardinal and #28 for Tyson Chandler and #21?

It might be better to wait until the deadline to make a move with those expiring though. (Hornets 2010 first?)

[the_bruce]

...

WAS GETS: Mike Miller + Craig Smith + 1.8 mil TPE
WAS GIVES: Etan Thomas + Mike James + #3

MIL GETS: James + Craig Smith + UTA pick + $0.5 mil TPE.
MIL GIVES: Ridnour + Elson + Malik Allen + #10

MIN GETS: Etan + Ridnour + #3 + #10
MIN GIVES: Mike Miller + Craig Smith

Hold up.... I'm in love? I think MN is a bit light on the expectations of both fan bases here though. I agree that Miller is a great fit for WAS plans if they don't end up with the #2+, but they will certainly look to add more. MIL fans would be onboard with the MIL part as long as CV + Sessions could be retained.

The #3, #5, #10, #18, #28 is a bit to absurd, but it would certainly be interesting.
Thabeet(#3), Derozan(#5), Lawson(#10), whoever...

[shrink]

Looking at that trade, I think it demonstrates a weakness I have.

I feel like I create trades that other teams improve with. I'm pretty good at generating trade value by repositioning assets into places where they are better fits for the team's goals. However, in these bigger trades, I take most of that value and plunk it down in MIN's bucket.

If 12 "points" of trade value are created, I give MIL and WAS 1 point, say "look, your team is better" and keep 10 for us.

I think WAS side looks better sending them the UTA 1st, that doesn't add cap space, and MIL could get our #28, or a couple seconds, and some cash and still save their cap space too.

[karch34]

...

WAS GETS: Mike Miller + Craig Smith + 1.8 mil TPE
WAS GIVES: Etan Thomas + Mike James + #3

MIL GETS: James + Craig Smith + UTA pick + $0.5 mil TPE.
MIL GIVES: Ridnour + Elson + Malik Allen + #10

MIN GETS: Etan + Ridnour + #3 + #10
MIN GIVES: Mike Miller + Craig Smith

Hold up.... I'm in love? I think MN is a bit light on the expectations of both fan bases here though. I agree that Miller is a great fit for WAS plans if they don't end up with the #2+, but they will certainly look to add more. MIL fans would be onboard with the MIL part as long as CV + Sessions could be retained.

The #3, #5, #10, #18, #28 is a bit to absurd, but it would certainly be interesting.
Thabeet(#3), Derozan(#5), Lawson(#10), whoever...

Yeah, I'd love it too.

[the_bruce]

Looking at that trade, I think it demonstrates a weakness I have.

I feel like I create trades that other teams improve with. I'm pretty good at generating trade value by repositioning assets into places where they are better fits for the team's goals. However, in these bigger trades, I take most of that value and plunk it down in MIN's bucket.

If 12 "points" of trade value are created, I give MIL and WAS 1 point, say "look, your team is better" and keep 10 for us.

I think WAS side looks better sending them the UTA 1st, that doesn't add cap space, and MIL could get our #28, or a couple seconds, and some cash and still save their cap space too.

Shrug if they are separate trades I'm sure they look fine in terms of value though. But combined MN looks like it kills both teams.

EG

In 1 trade:
theres 16 points of value
mn gets 10 total
was/mil each get 3

In 2 trades
theres 8 points of value per trade

trade 1:
MN gets 5
MIL gets 3

trade 2:
MN gets 5
WAS gets 3

When adding additional teams it becomes more apparent which team is getting the better end of the deal. It's a 3 way prisoner dilema! when it's a 3 way team deal the 2 teams getting less value see they get less value and team up with the other team getting jacked and complain.

[shrink]

Wow, I never looked at it that way before, so you're exactly right! Thanks for the insight!

So the thing to do is approach WAS with this:

WAS GETS: Mike Miller + Telfair* + 1.6 mil TPE
MIN GETS : Etan Thomas + Mike James + #3

And the next morning, you call up MIL and say, "Hey, we're no fans of Mike James, and you're no fan of Ridnour .." How about a swap? We'll even clear you some 2009 cap space you can use on Sessions, and remove your cap hold for this year's salary.

MIL GETS: Mike James + $1.3 mil TPE
MIN GETS: Ridnour + Malik Allen

MIL GETS: UTA pick + Craig Smith
MIN GETS: #10 + Elson

So we end up with the 10 points?

Good idea, doing it with this kind of timing.

*I noticed that the combined trade had Telfair going to both teams. Telfair is actually a better fit for WAS. We might need to wiggle a little, but I presented the MIL trade from their perspective, combining to maximize their TPE. James can't be combined I believe (maybe that's after 24 hours), but doing it seperately increases their TPE, if not their actual amount of salary under the lux. In a multi-player deal, each team can line-up the pieces, in different ways, that benefits them most, as long as they meet CBA guidelines.

[shrink]

I ran some more numbers, and I think I can improve the WAS trade slightly for both teams, by including Bobby Brown for Pecherov. Brown costs half as much, and this maximizes the TPE. We can take back $16.49, and with Etan's trade kicker, we add $16.47. This gets their TPE to $2.25 mil, and removes the $3.87 from their pick. Since both would be doubled, it saves Abe Pollin over $12 mil. They have Blatche and Javale McGee to help Haywood and Jamison, and they'd probably get O Pech's minutes anyway. We don't mind paying an extra $0.7 to turn Brown into a center, even with Etan coming.

WAS GETS: Mike Miller + Telfair + Bobby Brown + $2.25 mil TPE
MIN GETS : Etan Thomas + Pecherov + Mike James + #3

[B Calrissian]

#5, Smith, Cardinal, rights to Pek
For
#12, Diaw, Ajinca

Bobcats roster
Felton/Augustin/Singletary
Bell/(#5)DeRozan
Wallace/VladRad
Okafor/Smith/Cardinal
Diop/Mohammed

Wolves roster
(#12)Holiday(or Lawson)/Telfair
Foye/Miller
Brewer/Gomes/(#18)Daye
Diaw/Love
Jefferson/Ajinca/Madsen

Rotation with everyone healthy
Holiday(or Lawson)28/Foye20
Foye14/Miller28/Brewer6
Brewer18/Gomes20/Diaw10
Diaw24/Love24
Jefferson34/Ajinca8/Love6

[revprodeji]

Oh wow I do not like it. No offense, but not a fan.

Could we put a package together for Anthony Randolph if we get a pick different than top 2?

We need the order before we can do anything.

[B Calrissian]

Oh wow I do not like it. No offense, but not a fan.

Could we put a package together for Anthony Randolph if we get a pick different than top 2?

We need the order before we can do anything.

Is it the value, fit, or both that you don't like? Or just that Pekovic is involved?

[john2jer]

I don't like anything about it. No interest in DIaw, no interest in dropping 7 spots in the draft. Ajinca is ok, but not worth the other garbage.

[revprodeji]

Diaw is hot/cold depending on how the team uses him. He could be a difference maker, but there is equal risk of him being a worse version of Jaric. I like Pekovic better than ajinca.

I am a fan of Diaw, but I could not promise he can play like I would like with us.

[Esohny]

I don't think the wolves are getting enough value there. I happen to think that we won't be able to get full value for Pekovic's talent due to his stated position about coming to the NBA so far, but I'm not in love with the other players we'd be getting there.

[revprodeji]

He officially has no stated position. Just some indirect media statements. Who knows what he tells to Holiberg, or Philo.

[Esohny]

I suppose that if he's only talking to the wolves FO, they could float a rumor that he wants to come over even if he actually doesn't.

[revprodeji]

touche.