NY/MN/Utah trade.....by request ;)

[jade_hippo]

I really like the addition of AK47. Even if he can't play great defense at the 3, he's still an amazing backup for Al/Love since they cannot play the all the PF/C min and with only Hollins as a viable backup who can play some defense, i say do it.

[the_bruce]

I would do this for sure.

I am not confident that we will be a player in a Free agent market. I think our goal needs to be either trading for a key player, or trading for crap and picks. Ny's pick this year is not only going to be a valuable piece of our team, but we keep it away from Utah. That is huge. Then in a couple years we get another NY pick. If you ignore the money, AK is a player. He will be nice in a running system also. Curry is likely not going to play, but both him and AK are short contracts.

We are all about stockpiling assets right now. With this deal we would have a chance at 2 top 5 picks+ char pick+utah picks. This is a very deep draft where there would be a done of value. Lets say we get Turner, Aldrich, and Ebanks in the draft. here is our rotations.

Al/Hollins/Curry
Love/Aldrich
AK/Brewer/Ebanks
Turner/Ellingson
Flynn/Sessions

Add rubio in a couple years. Or combine some young bits for a stud. This is a crazy amount of value.

The main problem is that nyk pick is certainly not worth how much $$ mn shells out for it in additional salary. 34m? Even if you assume you get 10m of production from AK47 and the pick is worth 10-20m. There's still like 10-15m worth of overpayment from MN.

MN certainly wouldnt be in to bad of shape doing this sort of deal...

MN #1 next year (1-10)
NYK #1 next year (1-10)
Utah pick ~20
Bobcats pick ~15
Pekovic rights
Rubio rights
Something else from nyk (galinari or hill)

That right there is an entire roster turnover if need be.

Pek
favors (nyk pick)
Gallinari/cats pick
turner (mn pick)
Rubio/utah pick

which are added or traded to add different players to our core of...

al
Love
brewer
Ellington
flynn

It's not a bad idea and I think the post trade lineup is more competitive. But when I spend Glen Taylors money I want better ROI.

[Narf]

New York can funnel 6 million to the Wolves in this trade too (3 mil to Utah, 3 mil to the Wolves with Utah giving 3 mil to the Wolves). Remember, the Knicks are also over the luxury tax so every dollar the Wolves take that the Knicks don't saves them 2 dollars after tax. 6 million covers all of the extra salary the Wolves take this year and 3 million for what they take next year. but instead of a Joe Johnson and Ryan Gomes, they have AK47 and NY's 1st round pick. That's the real trade off. I don't know that we are saving any more next year, just switching assets. Then in 2011, when Rubio comes over, we have cap space again. It sets us up nicely.

We also are getting a future 1st round pick from the Knicks (2012) which I expect to be a late 1st rounder. That's got some value as well (3 million seems the going rate for late 1st rounders).

I think the money value is imperfect but close enough. I think this is more about the talent.

[Esohny]

Would this prevent us from being able to sign Pekovic? Was he coming in 2010 or 2011?

[Narf]

Would this prevent us from being able to sign Pekovic? Was he coming in 2010 or 2011?

We could always use the MLE for Pekovic if he decided to come over. So no, it doesn't stop us from signing him. It means we'd have a huge chunk next year tied up in 2 players (Kirilenko and Curry) and another top 5 first round pick from NY in 2010. In 2011 we'd have cap space again.

[Esohny]

I'm aware of the MLE.

I suppose I should have asked if the full MLE would be enough to sign him, since he's established himself as a star in the Euroleague.

[Narf]

I'm aware of the MLE.

I suppose I should have asked if the full MLE would be enough to sign him, since he's established himself as a star in the Euroleague.

He signed a 3 year contract for 4 million Euros net in 2008. That's after taxes, and they are worth more than a dollar, but the MLE is a pretty big raise over that. He could sign with us for 3 years, and if he doesn't get a huge payday after that he could go back to Europe.

[shrink]

OK, if I was going to do this type of trade, it'd be two steps:

1. Kirilenko + Harpring + NYK #1 + "remove protections on UTA pick" for Blount + Cardinal + Atkins

UTA saves $4.75 mil + $2.72 when they waive Atkins -- doubled for the lux and that's $17 mil in 2009-10, and $18 mil for Kirilenko in 2010-11.

Saving $35 mil is well worth the picks -- UTA might have to offer more.

2. Once we had the NYK pick, then raise its value:

Harpring + OPec for Jeffries + Gallinari

This pulls $10.2 mil off of NYK's 2010 salary cap. Gallinari is not worth $10 mil, but they can probably get someone in free agency who is.

[John Doe [MIN]]

1) Kirilenko and Curry are indeed bad contracts, but they're not long, bad contracts. By next offseason, they'll be expirings. By 2011, they're both off the books to the tune of almost $30 million. In exchange for our delaying our free agency splash one year, we pick up an otherwise free asset in New York's 1st rounder.

My main problem is the +8m in payroll mn spends this year(~6m tpe + 2.5m for atkins deal) plus and extra 11.2 curry & 17.8 in AK47 next season. For a whopping + 29m in payroll next season, Or +37.5m for the nyk pick.

In contrast...
Utah saves: ~25m over 2 seasons
NYK saves: ~22m over 2 seasons (~18m of that being pure 2010 cap space)
MN spends: ~+38m over 2 seasons for a pick that is probable top 10(but you never know with dantoni)

I don't mind the idea, but MN needs something more to pull the trigger here. As least 1 of the NYK youth AND probably swapping Curry for a different bad contract. Maybe a 4 way with CHA where they get boozer + curry MN gets vlad or chandler instead of curry? Utah gets Crash + x?

It's kind of disingenuous to put it in this terms. You're not taking into account the money that we will surely be spending over the summer of 2010. We won't watch Blount, Watkins, Brown, Cardinal, and Pecherov expire and not sign someone new.

To put the cost in truer terms, our payroll will be slightly increased for two years, and our bounce back into contention will be delayed for one.

[Narf]

OK, if I was going to do this type of trade, it'd be two steps:

1. Kirilenko + Harpring + NYK #1 + "remove protections on UTA pick" for Blount + Cardinal + Atkins

UTA saves $4.75 mil + $2.72 when they waive Atkins -- doubled for the lux and that's $17 mil in 2009-10, and $18 mil for Kirilenko in 2010-11.

Saving $35 mil is well worth the picks -- UTA might have to offer more.

2. Once we had the NYK pick, then raise its value:

Harpring + OPec for Jeffries + Gallinari

This pulls $10.2 mil off of NYK's 2010 salary cap. Gallinari is not worth $10 mil, but they can probably get someone in free agency who is.

That's a solid idea. But, how does $4.75 + $2.72 times 2 = 17 million?
I think the problem with that trade is they are better this year before that trade. That is a pure money move. They lose a good player and they lose a draft pick and all they get is dollar savings.

[shrink]

That's a solid idea. But, how does $4.75 + $2.72 times 2 = 17 million?

Ooops .. $15 mil.

I should never poke my nose from the spreadsheet, and do math myself.

[Narf]

I don't see the Jazz selling off assets right now. With Utah matching Millsap, it seems obvious that they are willing to pay to be contenders. They want to win the division and they want to compete for a championship. They care about that more than they care about $30 million (as every cent they paid Millsap is doubled from the luxury tax). But CLEARLY they care about 30 million. AK is not really 35 million in savings, as he's worth maybe 14 million over 2 years. So what we have to do is find a deal that gives them just as good a shot of winning AND gives them money savings.

So to tweak your trade a bit, we give Gomes to Charlotte along with Boozer from Utah for Wallace (who replaces AK47), then we send Atkins, Songalia, and Cardinal (or something like that) for Harpring, AK, and NY's pick. Utah needs to take a salary back from Charlotte, not sure which one. I haven't done the math, just winging it here.

This then ends up with helping NY suck for cap savings next year. Where as we could just combine the 2 into 1 gigantic trade.

[the_bruce]

It's kind of disingenuous to put it in this terms. You're not taking into account the money that we will surely be spending over the summer of 2010. We won't watch Blount, Watkins, Brown, Cardinal, and Pecherov expire and not sign someone new.

To put the cost in truer terms, our payroll will be slightly increased for two years, and our bounce back into contention will be delayed for one.

Ok lets put it in "real terms" and assume MN signs a FA around 13m. Its still 25m more than that.

I don't even need to compare the MN part to show how unfair this is...

Utah and NYK both save around the same amount of money. Utah send out a very high lotto pick and Usefull players. NYK sends out a protected lotto pick one of the worst players in the league for 11m and gets pure capspace to pursue multiple max FA's. For the price of Lee who they wont even give a multi year deal too because they dont wanna harm their capspace plans.

[Narf]

It's kind of disingenuous to put it in this terms. You're not taking into account the money that we will surely be spending over the summer of 2010. We won't watch Blount, Watkins, Brown, Cardinal, and Pecherov expire and not sign someone new.

To put the cost in truer terms, our payroll will be slightly increased for two years, and our bounce back into contention will be delayed for one.

Ok lets put it in "real terms" and assume MN signs a FA around 13m. Its still 25m more than that.

I don't even need to compare the MN part to show how unfair this is...

Utah and NYK both save around the same amount of money. Utah send out a very high lotto pick and Usefull players. NYK sends out a protected lotto pick one of the worst players in the league for 11m and gets pure capspace to pursue multiple max FA's. For the price of Lee who they wont even give a multi year deal too because they dont wanna harm their capspace plans.

+ gomes + songalia = 22 mil
Joe Johnson will likely cost more than 13 mil per.

[shrink]

I don't see the Jazz selling off assets right now. With Utah matching Millsap, it seems obvious that they are willing to pay to be contenders.

You may be right, and I've heard other people say the same thing.

Personally, I think they signed Millsap because they think he is part of their young future. If they wanted to be contenders, they wouldn't be looking so hard for a taker for All Star Carlos Boozer, a player who's a career 17-10 and FG 54%

[john2jer]

OK, if I was going to do this type of trade, it'd be two steps:

1. Kirilenko + Harpring + NYK #1 + "remove protections on UTA pick" for Blount + Cardinal + Atkins

UTA saves $4.75 mil + $2.72 when they waive Atkins -- doubled for the lux and that's $17 mil in 2009-10, and $18 mil for Kirilenko in 2010-11.

Saving $35 mil is well worth the picks -- UTA might have to offer more.

2. Once we had the NYK pick, then raise its value:

Harpring + OPec for Jeffries + Gallinari

This pulls $10.2 mil off of NYK's 2010 salary cap. Gallinari is not worth $10 mil, but they can probably get someone in free agency who is.

There is asbolutely zero chance of New York trading Gallinari just to clear 2010 salary without getting some kind of asset back. Right now they have room for one max free agent in 2010, and another in 2011 if they stand pat. Gallo is likely their best player that has a future there.