Is signing Max FAs overrated?

[Danimals]

There has been endless talk about the Wolves chances of signing a max level FA this coming summer. I am not of the opinion that they should if they can. I think signing max level FAs from other teams is highly overrated. In fact I think it is as likely that signing a max level FA away from another team destroys a teams chances to win a championship as propels them to win a championship. That's right, I said it. The only max level FA I would want us to sign next year is LBJ. Period.

I challenge you to find a list of FA who have signed a max deal with a new team and then gone on to win a ring.

I know things can change, but I'm not dying to overpay for someone else's "star". I believe in paying your own stars to stay, as this will leave you more cap flexibility to sign the veteran/up and coming role players needed to win a championship.

I am much more inclined to use our salary cap in a trade. I hope Kahn is the man to find the next Gasol like salary dump. I also like the idea of maintaining cap space going forward to eventually pay our own superstar, once we draft or develop one. I do not want to see us paint ourselves into a corner of mediocrity by overpaying, just to make a splash in free agency.

I only want the Wolves to win a championship, not just make the playoffs and lose early. We've seen enough of that.

[Foye]

I wouldn't hesitate to give Wade also a max. contract...other than those 2 players I don't think any FA in 2010 is worth a max. contract.

[revprodeji]

I agree that the value will likely be in a salary dump. With teams struggling on the economic side, and us having the needed parts, perhaps we would be more likely to score in Dec/deadline then with FA.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I don't think we have a good shot at anybody worthy of a max contract, I'd recommend going straight to the other guys and hopefully get a guy you like for a decent price while everybody is trying to sign Bosh or Wade

[GopherIt!]

we're into the whole vintage player thing - cheap and cool.

[Danimals]

I challenge you to find a list of FA who have signed a max deal with a new team and then gone on to win a ring.

[Klomp]

What we need to figure out is: a) who wants to go after a max free agent, b) who cannot quite afford it, and c) who has a young up-and-coming star they would be willing to deal.

I think we need all of those before making a deal, but are there any teams that apply?????

Atlanta (Josh Smith) - If Johnson opts out, do they have enough money to lure a top FA to Atlanta?
Houston (Yao) - The Rockets are not very good, so maybe they go into full rebuilding mode.
Chicago (Noah) - If the Bulls cannot unload one of their higher paid players, they may get desperate and deal a young guy like Noah along with a guy like Hinrich.
Oklahoma City (Green) - They have the room for one, but they may need room for two in order to get one.

[Klomp]

I challenge you to find a list of FA who have signed a max deal with a new team and then gone on to win a ring.

Shaquille O'Neal

Most max guys never make it to free agency. If they are good enough to earn the max, teams will do whatever they can to keep them.

[Narf]

It's hard to say what brings someone a championship. The Lakers and Celtics own half of the NBA championships, and Shaq's signing and KG's trade are pretty much the reasons for 4 out of the last 5 those 2 teams have won.

Chauncey's signing pretty much won Detroit a championship. He was their best player

Steve Nash's signing was the reason Phoenix almost won a championship. They were a little short, but they were the 2nd best team in the NBA.

San Antonio and Houston are the only teams that won in the last 30 years without trading for or signing a superstar player. And the Spurs won the Duncan Lottery while Robinson was injured, so that's cheating.

Realistically, almost no one wins a championship without trading for or signing a superstar via free agency. You'd have to get pretty damn lucky in the lottery for that to happen.

[Danimals]

Shaq is the only max level free agent to sign with a new team and then win a championship. He is one of the best players of all time. I would only sign Lebron this year. He is the only player in this category. Just look for more financially sound deals and build through the draft until we get a top 5 player, or end up with 2 top 10-15 players.

And to the teams who want to sign two max free agents, ask the Magic how that worked out with TMac and Hill. It took them years to turn that mess around, and really it took luck in the draft, again.

I just want us to trade our expirings for guys who expire next year and young assets or picks to develop. I want to do this year after year until we get lucky and get that alpha dog.

I'm just worried next year's free agency will turn out like a party you regret for the rest of your life. All the hot chicks go home with someone else. So in desperation we take some ugly bitch home and end up getting her pregnant.

[casey]

And to the teams who want to sign to max free agents, ask the Magic how that worked out with TMac and Hill.

Ask the Magic how that worked out with Rashard Lewis.

[shrink]

I challenge you to find a list of FA who have signed a max deal with a new team and then gone on to win a ring.

Is that the only definition for a successful free agent signing? Wow - that's a lot of pressure!

Its a small number of big name players that actually go through free agency, and an even smaller number of teams that win a ring.

Moreover, teams that are so far under the salary cap that they can afford a max deal free agent probably don't have enough invested in total team salary to be as competitive the next year as every other contender.

[Danimals]

In response to Shrink: I don't just mean, who won a championship the following year, but any year while under that contract.

Anyway, I just think people are putting way to much hope in signing a max level free agent. Like I said, I only want James. I can just see Wade signing a huge deal and then going all TMac/Grant Hill for the rest of his career, injury after injury and no more rings. Bosh plays the same position as our best players and I'm not convinced he's a #1 option on a contender either. All the other guys are too old. In fact the only big money guy I'm interested in is Gay and only, I repeat only if Kahn can sign him on the cheap, ie about 7-8 million a year or less. Then Rambis needs to do some real coaching and developing to help him reach his potential. I just don't want Kahn to get the ugly chick prego.

[big3_8_19_21]

You want Gay and not Wade? Did I read that right?

[Biff Cooper]

I'm just throwing values off the top of my head, but I view them to not be completely out of line.
Lebron James is probably worth $35 mil in basketball value to the Cavs per year (more than that in marketing value)
D Wade is probably worth $30 mil in basketball value to the Heat per year
C Bosh is probably slightly around $22 mil

Yet the Collective Bargaining Agreement puts a max of around $17 mil for what these three could make in the first year of a new contract extension next year. It's pretty obvious to see the value in this. With Lebron or Wade, you'd be getting nearly twice the basketball value than what you are paying for.

Danimals suggested Rudy Gay at $7-8 mil or less. If you read Hollinger's pre-season write up on Gay, he almost suggests Gay had a negative value to the Grizzlies last year. From what I can tell, he's off to a pretty solid start to this season, so I'm sure he is probably positive value, but you would still be signing him on potential. Let's say his current worth is 4-7/year, but he has the potential to improve to a 10-11/year player. You are still risking several mil per year in value based on potential.