MIN - NOH .. get under the lux

[shrink]

Dr Mufasa is a smart poster, and one of personal favorites, but I think he's wrong on the "value of 2010 cap space" position.

Historically, cap space has been a very valuable resource. The SEA-PHO deal where a TPE for an expiring brought in two 1st round picks may be a highlight, but MIN turned a few million in a TPE into a protected pick just last year.

So will it decline in 2010? I think not.

First, several teams will have room because they have players on contracts that expire this summer. These players don't disappear from the NBA -- they will get jobs, often in new location. Some will get bigger, max deals, but many more will be paid less.

However, this doesn't mean there will be more financial wiggle room. Take MIN for example. Say their payroll drops $25 mil, from $62 to $37 mil. And let's say they use up all the raw cap space. to get to $52. At this point, they can only add salary through exceptions (all renounced), or through cap matching. Even for their team, they have cut $10 mil out of the available NBA financial flexibility.

Second, the factors are even worse for the teams that are over the lux. Many owners have taken giant losses to their own personal fortunes. Only 5 of 30 franchises gained values. And most teams are operating in the red.

Third, while salaries often increase, the luxury threshold and the salary cap are dropping even further. Estimates around $52 for the cap and $63 for the lux seem reasonable. We already have 14 teams over the lux this year - the most ever. A declining lux will increase the demand for free cap space.

Fourth, the declining cap has created more demand for cap space. Team like New york have seen their longterm plans to acquire two free agents become impossible as the salary cap fell. they increase the demand for cap space, particularly in a year with so many elite free agents.

Finally, teams aren't selling enough tickets, or at high enough prices. Whether they are over the lux or not, many need to retrench. I think its likely you see rebuilding at a much pronounced level, to get fresh blood on the team. Stars will be dealt for cap space, so teams can save money and minutes for the youth.


In the years I've watched the economics of the NBA, I've never seen such a perfect storm of factors that will make 2010 the year cap space is king.

[Dr Positivity]

We have plenty of 2010 expirings: Blount, Cardinal, Wilkins, OPec, Hart(currently), Sasha, and Jawaii, plus Gomes's unguaranteed deal.

Think you misunderstood me. All those players expire this year. On your team only Hollins 2 mil deal expires after the 2010-2011 season unless you count Brewer (team option)

Next year, before picks are added, our salary cap number is $35.17mil Counting draft picks and we're sitting around $41mil. So that's roughly $12-14mil in cap space.

I did the math without Gomes factored in, thats my fault. With Mo Pete and the pick you guys will have a 49 mil payroll next year, or 4-6 mil in capspace. With Peterson and the pick its 12-14. Still it comes down what has more trade value: 12-14 mil in capspace, or 4-6 mil in capspace, the a top 14 draft pick, and a 6 mil expiring. Id prefer the latter but it depends what kind of deal youre expecting

Or you could just waive Gomes and have 8-10 mil capspace AND the Hornets top 14 pick. If you feel a lottery pick has more value than Gomes

Think back 2 years ago when the Wolves picked up Carney, Booth, and Utah's 1st round pick for nearly free, as the Sixers sent cash in the deal to cover salaries. There's going to be teams that are a hair away from having space to off the max, and will send out assets to get the space.

Isnt a lottery pick worth more than Carney, Booth, and Utahs pick, though. Carney and Booth are useless and Utahs pick will be 20-30.

Regardless this argument is irrelevant because the Hornets are NOT going to trade their lottery pick just to dump Mo Petes 2 year contract. Theyd do it for Peja maybe, but not Peterson. Their fans would come at Shinn with pitchforks

[john2jer]

We got Carney, Booth, and the 21st pick in the 2010 draft FOR FREE. Literally. Ok, actually the cost was 500k because Philly picked up the rest. Wolves aren't going to trade $6mil in cap space for a pick that's maybe 1 or 2 spots higher than the Char pick they'll have, when they have 2 more picks in the draft, thus costing them a free agent or a trade for a player that can actually contribute. There's such thing as too many rookies. No need for a 4th pick. Hell, the Wolves could probably move up beyond the Hornets pick by combining the Char and Utah pick.