Wolves Draft Board Version III (Top 23)

[Casperkid23]

Shocker, a disagreement on a draft prospect (I've always wanted to use that)

This is one of those "we'll see" disagreements. I think he'll translate reasonably well and doesn't need an athleticism advantage to do the things he does at the level I expect him to. You don't. Either way, I'm not going to dig in my heels and take a stand as this is a guy I'm thinking has a range of 15-35; and am not a fan of his like I am Henry or Ebanks.

[shangrila]

Fair enough. I'm interested to see how guys like Hobson, Brackins, Stephenson, etc do in the NBA as they seem to be more talented then the average 2nd rounder.

[Vindicater]

I think Stephenson will eventually settle with someone and be a key part of a good team (as a scorer off the bench).

I think its just going to take some time for him to accept that role though

[Foye]

I still think Stephenson will be out of the league very soon just like Rashard McCants.

[shangrila]

Any interest in Mikhail Torrance? If he improves his jump shot I wouldn't mind taking him with a pick around here. Seems like the ultimate combo guard and someone that'd be useful in the Triangle or open court.

[horaceworthy]

I feel somewhat obligated to chime in here, as I sport a Hobson avatar. Apologies for the lengthy post.

I know draftexpress isn't the only opinion, but they pretty much mirror what my fears are with a guy like Hobson. His below average athleticism

Givony actually says he’s an average athlete in that writeup, which is a fair assessment. He’s not explosive by any means, but he’s not a stiff.

will take away his offence (his driving) and with his already poor finishing ability (43% around the basket), that doesn't look like a part of his game that will translate.

You’re mixing up overall two point field goal percentage and around the basket percentage. At the time of Givony’s writeup, Hobson’s 2PFG% was 43%, by the end of the year it had been raised to 46%. Hobson’s a poor shooter off the dribble, and wasn’t selective enough when pulling up from midrange, although his shot selection did improve somewhat as the year went on. He’s nothing special as a finisher, primarily a below the rim guy, but he’s got good size, decent touch around the basket, and has a decent floater.

So I just can't help thinking, what else can he do?

He shoots well when his feet are set, although there’s a bit of a hitch in his shot mechanics. He rebounds well, has good size, great court vision, gives a good effort, and has a good feel for the game. He’s just an average athlete, but he has a versatile offensive game and makes good decisions quickly. I’m not worried about his ability to take his man off the bounce, as he has a variety of ways to draw defenders off balance, and will be able to take advantage of seams that open up due to ball movement and defensive rotation.

If he can't beat his man off the dribble it takes away a lot of his passing abilities in Minnesota's P'n'R-less offence and his average physical tools make him a total liability on defence, something else this team doesn't need.

Hobson’s passing abilities extend beyond driving and dishing. He hits cutters, feeds the post, runs the pick n’ roll, and is a fantastic passer in transition. He sees the floor as well as anyone in this draft, which is a real asset at his size. Since Kahn and Rambis seem intent on running an up-tempo offense emphasizing ball and player movement in the half-court, it makes sense to bring in someone like Hobson with strengths that play to that particular style of play.

As a defender, I don’t see him being a total liability, but he will struggle with quicker perimeter players. He’s smart, plays good help D, isn’t afraid to take a charge, and uses his length well. I think he’ll be a solid overall team defender, but will struggle when isolated against certain match-ups.

Minnesota does get about 10% of their offense from the P-n’-R, even Brewer got to run it once or twice per game as the year went on. If Rambis is willing to do that for the Drunken Dribbler, he’d probably throw Hobson a bone or two.

I don't mind maybe trading both 2nd rounders up to grab him or even just flat out buying whatever pick he gets chosen at, but using a 1st rounder is a huge stretch for this guy.

I don’t think it’s a stretch at all. There are definitely better athletes out there, but Hobson brings a unique blend of size, offensive versatility and passing ability to the table that will likely land him in the late first/early second portion of the draft. I’d be happy to land him at #23, he fits well with the direction Rambis and Kahn are looking to take the team, but I'm biased in that I liked watching him play this year.

[shangrila]

Hope you don't mind if I have an equally long reply then.

I know draftexpress isn't the only opinion, but they pretty much mirror what my fears are with a guy like Hobson. His below average athleticism

Givony actually says he’s an average athlete in that writeup, which is a fair assessment. He’s not explosive by any means, but he’s not a stiff.

I guess, but the team really doesn't need more average athletes. For example, everyone's complained about Gomes this year but I can't see the difference between the two athletically.

will take away his offence (his driving) and with his already poor finishing ability (43% around the basket), that doesn't look like a part of his game that will translate.

You’re mixing up overall two point field goal percentage and around the basket percentage. At the time of Givony’s writeup, Hobson’s 2PFG% was 43%, by the end of the year it had been raised to 46%. Hobson’s a poor shooter off the dribble, and wasn’t selective enough when pulling up from midrange, although his shot selection did improve somewhat as the year went on. He’s nothing special as a finisher, primarily a below the rim guy, but he’s got good size, decent touch around the basket, and has a decent floater.

If he'd improved his mid range game then I'll give him some credit, but no matter how you try and spin it he did struggle to score around the basket in college. How is it not going to be harder when he goes against the better athletes in the NBA?

So I just can't help thinking, what else can he do?

He shoots well when his feet are set, although there’s a bit of a hitch in his shot mechanics. He rebounds well, has good size, great court vision, gives a good effort, and has a good feel for the game. He’s just an average athlete, but he has a versatile offensive game and makes good decisions quickly. I’m not worried about his ability to take his man off the bounce, as he has a variety of ways to draw defenders off balance, and will be able to take advantage of seams that open up due to ball movement and defensive rotation.

Yeah, I realise now I overlooked some of this. I still think his main drawing cards can be easily taken away but if the team looks to keep Al long term, having someone that can make an above average entry pass would be very nice.

As a defender, I don’t see him being a total liability, but he will struggle with quicker perimeter players. He’s smart, plays good help D, isn’t afraid to take a charge, and uses his length well. I think he’ll be a solid overall team defender, but will struggle when isolated against certain match-ups.

This kind of describes most of the players on the team though. But he struggled against college level athletes on the perimeter and I can't see him being anything but an open door in the NBA. Sure he'll do all of the things you mentioned, but at some point he's going to have to defend someone one on one and I just don't think he'll ever be able to do that effectively.

Minnesota does get about 10% of their offense from the P-n’-R, even Brewer got to run it once or twice per game as the year went on. If Rambis is willing to do that for the Drunken Dribbler, he’d probably throw Hobson a bone or two.

True, although I thought that was more because it was easier to run then the Triangle and it was Rambis throwing the entire team a bone. But even if they do, wouldn't you rather someone like Turner running that?

I don't mind maybe trading both 2nd rounders up to grab him or even just flat out buying whatever pick he gets chosen at, but using a 1st rounder is a huge stretch for this guy.

I don’t think it’s a stretch at all. There are definitely better athletes out there, but Hobson brings a unique blend of size, offensive versatility and passing ability to the table that will likely land him in the late first/early second portion of the draft. I’d be happy to land him at #23, he fits well with the direction Rambis and Kahn are looking to take the team, but I'm biased in that I liked watching him play this year.

I still don't think the value is there and that's actually my point. I do like him as a player and wouldn't mind getting him but if the team were desperate to pick him up in the 1st, trade down with Memphis or New Jersey to get another pick. I'd rather get, for example, Dominique Jones and Hobson then just Hobson.

[Esohny]

I still think Stephenson will be out of the league very soon just like Rashard McCants.

I could see this easily.

[horaceworthy]

I guess, but the team really doesn't need more average athletes. For example, everyone's complained about Gomes this year but I can't see the difference between the two athletically.

I can’t speak for everyone, but personally, I complain about Gomes because I don’t think he’s that good of a basketball player. I think Hobson has a chance to be a better basketball player. The team needs better basketball players. He’s not a perfect basketball player, but good luck finding that in the late first round.

If he'd improved his mid range game then I'll give him some credit, but no matter how you try and spin it he did struggle to score around the basket in college. How is it not going to be harder when he goes against the better athletes in the NBA?

I didn’t really spin anything, nor did I claim it wouldn’t be tougher in the NBA. He’s nothing special as a finisher, but the 43% around the rim number you threw out is bunk.

I actually think he’d be better off axing the midrange game for the most part. Either finish at the rim or get the ball to someone who can, the latter of which is a major strength of Hobson’s. He’s better off seeing if he can draw extra attention and finding the open man than he is pulling up.

Yeah, I realise now I overlooked some of this. I still think his main drawing cards can be easily taken away but if the team looks to keep Al long term, having someone that can make an above average entry pass would be very nice.

It benefits everyone one on the team to have guys that can pass, particularly with the way Kahn and Rambis seem to want to emphasize ball and player movement. You’re overstating the tie between passing ability and slashing ability. The Wolves have a lot of ball stoppers, Hobson isn’t one.

This kind of describes most of the players on the team though. But he struggled against college level athletes on the perimeter and I can't see him being anything but an open door in the NBA. Sure he'll do all of the things you mentioned, but at some point he's going to have to defend someone one on one and I just don't think he'll ever be able to do that effectively.

Solid team defender doesn’t describe most of the guys on the Wolves, IMO. Hobson has appropriate size for his position(s), average athleticism and at least seems interested in putting in an effort on that side of the ball, other traits that can’t be readily ascribed to most current members of the Wolves. He won’t be a stopper of any sort, but the open door/total liability talk is overdramatic. I’m not trying to paint him as Superman or anything, just a solid pick in the late 1st, but you’re a bit off the mark with the “more of the same” stuff.

True, although I thought that was more because it was easier to run then the Triangle and it was Rambis throwing the entire team a bone. But even if they do, wouldn't you rather someone like Turner running that?

Sure, but despite Flynn having his locker ready, Turner isn’t a lock to be on the team next year. Even if he is, he won’t be on the floor all 48 minutes. I also think that Rambis will run more P-n’-R as time goes by and winning becomes more of a priority, although that isn’t the only manner in which someone like Hobson could contribute.

I still don't think the value is there and that's actually my point. I do like him as a player and wouldn't mind getting him but if the team were desperate to pick him up in the 1st, trade down with Memphis or New Jersey to get another pick. I'd rather get, for example, Dominique Jones and Hobson then just Hobson.

I think the whole value argument is silly (particularly when it’s a big board two months before the draft). The NBA draft isn’t like the NFL draft where multiple lower picks can easily equate to a higher pick, and the draft can be manipulated fairly readily. Teams run a much greater risk of outthinking themselves if they attempt it in the NBA draft. Usually the best way for teams to maximize the value of a pick is to take the guy that they feel will be the best player for them.

If a team likes Hobson, they’ll probably have to take him in the late 1st/early 2nd. It isn’t about Hobson vs. Hobson and Jones (a duo I wouldn’t be opposed to at all), it’s about Hobson vs. the other prospects in that range. He’s got a good chance of becoming a good role-player with a unique blend of size, versatility and court vision that can contribute without requiring many shots in order to do so. I’m not saying he has to be the only guy in the discussion, I'm just saying he should be in the discussion.

[Krapinsky]

I still think Stephenson will be out of the league very soon just like Rashard McCants.

I could see this easily.

I don't think he gets in. I think he goes undrafted.

[shangrila]

I can’t speak for everyone, but personally, I complain about Gomes because I don’t think he’s that good of a basketball player. I think Hobson has a chance to be a better basketball player. The team needs better basketball players. He’s not a perfect basketball player, but good luck finding that in the late first round.

You really don't think Gomes is a good basketball player? I know he's no star, but he's had stretches of 20ppg when put in a prominent role here and all of his problems seem to be physical. He's the perfect example of a tweener, atleast physically.

But again, you've mentioned late 1st round. Why? If he's a 2nd round pick, why spend the 23rd on him? That was one of my points from the beginning.

I didn’t really spin anything, nor did I claim it wouldn’t be tougher in the NBA. He’s nothing special as a finisher, but the 43% around the rim number you threw out is bunk.

I actually think he’d be better off axing the midrange game for the most part. Either finish at the rim or get the ball to someone who can, the latter of which is a major strength of Hobson’s. He’s better off seeing if he can draw extra attention and finding the open man than he is pulling up.

Bunk? Come on man, I was like 2% off using outdated stats. My apologies.

But how can you say that after just saying how bad he is finishing at the rim? If it's either finish at rim or pass, and everyone knows he can't finish, then it'll be easy to take away his passing game. Developing some sort of shooting game, especially off the P'n'R, would make him much more of an offensive threat and make his passing game easier to stop.

It benefits everyone one on the team to have guys that can pass, particularly with the way Kahn and Rambis seem to want to emphasize ball and player movement. You’re overstating the tie between passing ability and slashing ability. The Wolves have a lot of ball stoppers, Hobson isn’t one.

I wasn't disagreeing with you in the part you quoted, so yeah...

Solid team defender doesn’t describe most of the guys on the Wolves, IMO. Hobson has appropriate size for his position(s), average athleticism and at least seems interested in putting in an effort on that side of the ball, other traits that can’t be readily ascribed to most current members of the Wolves. He won’t be a stopper of any sort, but the open door/total liability talk is overdramatic. I’m not trying to paint him as Superman or anything, just a solid pick in the late 1st, but you’re a bit off the mark with the “more of the same” stuff.

I'm being over dramatic? He's got average size for the small forward position, which is the only one he'll be playing in anything but a small ball line up and at Golden State. And yes he puts in effort, but so does Brewer, and as long as the team is committed to either Love, Jefferson or both long term they're going to need guys on the perimeter that can get stops all on their own. Maybe he's not a doormat, but he's going to struggle no matter how much effort he puts in.

Sure, but despite Flynn having his locker ready, Turner isn’t a lock to be on the team next year. Even if he is, he won’t be on the floor all 48 minutes. I also think that Rambis will run more P-n’-R as time goes by and winning becomes more of a priority, although that isn’t the only manner in which someone like Hobson could contribute.

My point was that someone better then Hobson should be running these plays. I mean the pick and roll is more then just a screen. If Hobson gets over the screen and can't finish at the rim or shoot from mid range, as we discussed above, then he's not a threat and you can just load up on the screener. I get that he can contribute in other ways and I do agree with you on some of your points, but things like being a good team player can only take you so far. Unless you can be some sort of threat on your own then you're useless offensively.

If a team likes Hobson, they’ll probably have to take him in the late 1st/early 2nd. It isn’t about Hobson vs. Hobson and Jones (a duo I wouldn’t be opposed to at all), it’s about Hobson vs. the other prospects in that range. He’s got a good chance of becoming a good role-player with a unique blend of size, versatility and court vision that can contribute without requiring many shots in order to do so. I’m not saying he has to be the only guy in the discussion, I'm just saying he should be in the discussion.

Alright then. I still think at this point there are better prospects available and you could get him later, and that's basically my whole point as I agree he'd be a nice fit on the team, but it doesn't look like we're going to agree anytime soon (and I think we've argued the same point several times already) so let's just agree to disagree.

[Vindicater]

HObson is allright, plenty of other better options though

[horaceworthy]

You really don't think Gomes is a good basketball player? I know he's no star, but he's had stretches of 20ppg when put in a prominent role here and all of his problems seem to be physical. He's the perfect example of a tweener, atleast physically.

No, I don’t think he’s that good of a basketball player. He’s okay, but he’s inconsistent and doesn’t always know his limitations. When his shot isn’t falling, he doesn’t really have a way to help a team.

But again, you've mentioned late 1st round. Why? If he's a 2nd round pick, why spend the 23rd on him? That was one of my points from the beginning.

I’ve been mentioning late 1st round because I think that’s when he’ll be taken, that he’s good enough to be taken there, and he fits into the way Rambis wants basketball played very well. I went into why I thought the “why take a 2nd round pick in the late 1st” was silly reasoning with my last post. Just because he’s #38 on DX’s mock two months before the draft doesn’t mean his value is that of a second rounder. Less than two months ago he wasn’t even on DX’s mock. He should be in the discussion at #23 because, he’s got a chance to become a good basketball player with a unique blend of size and skills, which has been my point from the beginning.

Bunk? Come on man, I was like 2% off using outdated stats. My apologies.

It’s bunk both because it was outdated and (mainly) because you mislabeled that percentage as “around the rim”. The statistic you used encapsulates every field goal attempt within the three point line, not just those around the rim. It’s more likely to give a false impression of finishing ability if someone with a poor midrange game used it too much, particularly if it’s presented as “percentage around the rim”.

But how can you say that after just saying how bad he is finishing at the rim? If it's either finish at rim or pass, and everyone knows he can't finish, then it'll be easy to take away his passing game. Developing some sort of shooting game, especially off the P'n'R, would make him much more of an offensive threat and make his passing game easier to stop.

You’re turning every non-strength/concern into an Achilles’ heel, which isn’t really the case. He isn’t like Love where he’ll constantly biff open layups, the defense would still have to rotate to challenge the shot, or allow an open layup.

It wouldn’t hurt him to better his midrange game, but right now he’s better off attacking the basket and either finding the open man, finishing himself, or drawing contact than settling for a pull-up jumper. He’s a good shooter with his feet set, that’s enough that the threat of the jumper should be respected, which opens up the rest of his game. If they ignore him to the degree you’ve laid out, he is a threat to knock down the shot.

Alright then. I still think at this point there are better prospects available and you could get him later, and that's basically my whole point as I agree he'd be a nice fit on the team, but it doesn't look like we're going to agree anytime soon (and I think we've argued the same point several times already) so let's just agree to disagree.

The better prospects available logic I understand. The whole value isn’t there, get him later, why take a 2nd rounder in the late 1st stuff, I’m not as sold on.

[Vindicater]

SO how long till we do version 4? straight after the lottery?

[Foye]

Lets start today.

[Vindicater]

Lets start today.