Krapinsky wrote:Not a shocker, but FWIW David Aldridge says:
8) Who is the player that will almost certainly be traded on Draft night?
Minnesota forward Ryan Gomes. His 2010-11 salary of $4.23 million is only guaranteed for $1 million for next season, so a team that acquires him on June 24 can save $3.23 million in cap room by July 1 if he's released. You can't find that kind of savings anywhere east of your area Target on President's Day. It may well wind up that Gomes is traded on Thursday, released on Monday and re-signed by Minnesota to a new contract later in the summer.
This is where Shrink comes in -- are there any teams that need to cut salary, either to get further under the cap for a FA or to avoid the tax?
There are lots of teams that could get real value from cutting Gomes contract. We're one of them.
Before I go into savings for the lux, keep in mind that Gomes provides a last-ditch efffort to add cap space -- the summer before its needed most. A team worried about the 2010-11 lux has until the trade deadline to make changes, and sometimes its easier to move their own deals when they've been paid off for most of the season. However, every team with cap space this summer wouldn't mind having a little more. The biggest players - where the cap space may mean they get an elite free agent -- remain CHI, NJN, MIA, and potentially NYK and NJN. Other teams that wouldn't mind adding additional cap space would be MIN, LAC, SAC, OKC etc. Gomes is valuable there.
He's also valuable to teams that are over the lux, because it removes the uncertainty on whether they can find a team willing to trade theri cap space or TPE's at the trade deadline. You'd be surprised how little raw cap space and TPE's were left last year. Anyway, for people who arenew to this, let me say that a team that can acquores Gomes and waives him will remove most of his salary(Gomes knocks $3 mil off the bill), and also gets to double their savings iif they are that far over the lux, and if this decrease puts them under the lux threshold, they get to keep their lux share, which looks to be worth about $3 mil this season as well. Some teams seem destined to avoid lux payments, like Indiana and New Orleans, but many others may want additional wiggle room (PHI, SA).
One thing you may want to watch for .. will the Gomes deal be included with MIN receiving a pick? If Gomes is dealt now for his value in being waived, its for a financial savings. These teams may also be eager to move a picks guaranteed salary for additional savings. If they do it now, the "rights to the pick" don't need to be salary matched.
For example, let me run some guestimations of an Indiana trade. I don't have time to do all the math, and they have a number of partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed deals, which would need to be replaced with roster holds, so let me just make some blanket estimates, and I hopefully won't get IND fans too mad at me.
Let's assume that after IND signs their #10 pick and fills out their roster, they are at $69 mil and the lux threshold is $66 mil. We offer them this "
Sessions + Gomes + #23 for TJ Ford + #10.
If they don't do the deal, their payroll is $75 mil ($69 + $3 for lux + $3 for lus share)
If they do this deal, they:
Save $3.3 mil in salary difference after waiving Gomes
Save $1.0 mil in salary difference from picks (after 120% raises)
Save $3.0 mil in luxury tax
Save $3.0 mil by retaining their lux share
$10.3 mil in total savings.
Now, its never fun to trade down a pick, but getting a young PG to grow with the team, moving TJ Ford to create the minutes, getting the #23 and saving over $10 mil might be worthwhile.
For MIN, it costs them $3.3 mil in raw cap space (if they waived Gomes themselves) and Sessions as a prospect, but we need to move either Foye or Sessions before 2011 Rubio anyway.
Anyway, I agree with the author. I suspect Gomes will be traded and waived. I would be pleased if he re-signs here. I think he is well worth his contract, and a very decent, team-oriented guy who does what's asked of him.
