Hornets Trades - Contrarian

[shrink]

I've seen a lot of good trades between MIN and NOH (taking Okafor's deal, Eric Gordon for Derrick Williams plus) get shot down. It's not because the value doesn't fit for each team and their own direction, but because NOH owns the MIN 1st now. They would never do a deal that would make us better in 2012.

However, one thing I don't hear people talking about is the contrapositive. They would have EXTRA incentive to do a deal that makes us worse in 2012.

The basic nature of the deal would be for MIN to sell NOH talent at a better-than-market price, since NOH could get a lot greater value, even if they could raise our pick only a few spots.

Now I understand that nobody wants to do worse this year, but if we were able to get "better-than-market" rates for a player (say, Beasley for the NOH pick), that could be a deal that helps both teams. Moreover, there is no trade delay on picks like their are on players ... MIN could swap it later that day for different talent.

NOH owning the MIN pick changes the economics, and punishes us from making a trade with them that improves our 2012 talent. However, we could use the economics to our advantage if we got a better deal by doing a trade that appeared to make us worse.

[shrink]

NOH has salary-matching problems for many of our players. By this, I mean that the players they have enough salary sunk into would probably help our team in 2012, or are delayed in theri ability to be combined in a trade One posibility for Beasley would be for them to use their $5 mil MLE players I listed in my Free Agent thread, and if he didn't work out in a couple months when he could be traded, he'd match SCB.

A couple questions, just for the sake of discussion:

1. Future Value-for-2012 Talent would probably involve using the NOH pick. Who woudn't you trade from our team for the pick? (Remember, NOH's new record will be based on the talent we send them)

2. Here's a sacriligeous one. Right now, I would not trade Kevin Love for Eric Gordon. But would you do it if NOH included their pick?

[Foye]

2. Here's a sacriligeous one. Right now, I would not trade Kevin Love for Eric Gordon. But would you do it if NOH included their pick?

No.

We have gone the rebuilding mode too long. It's time to add better players not get worse again.

[shangrila]

Good god. Not trading Love. Never, ever, never, rever, ever. Capiche?

[shrink]

3. Would you do Beasley for the NOH pick?

[[RCG]]

3. Would you do Beasley for the NOH pick?

Unprotected? Yes. Hornets will be in a better draft position then we will and it should give us an opportunity to take Anthony Davis or Andre Drummond. Even a SG would be okay. But I would imagine NOH 1st is now more valuable than our 1st and if I were the Hornets management I would try to sell off any valuable players and tank the season. Rebuild around Gordon and the two draft picks and cap space.

[shrink]

Keep in mind, NOH's final record may improve with the addition of Beasley.

[Esohny]

I would probably take the unprotected Hornets pick for Beasley, but the Hornets would not take that deal.

Kahn isn't making a deal that is likely to cost wins, I think he wants to try to keep his job.

[hsfolk]

It's better for the Hornets that they tank the season and hope Minnesota gets them a high draft pick. They kind of need to keep Okafor around just to make the minimum salary cap. Kaman is tradeable and will probably be moved at the trade deadline. Hornets could potentially have two high draft picks (Davis & Drummond?) to build around Eric Gordon, thats not bad considering all the cap space they'll have

[shrink]

It's better for the Hornets that they tank the season and hope Minnesota gets them a high draft pick.

They can do more than hope, if they can come up with a deal that MIN thniks is good enough to trade talent.

One of the things I find interesting is the economics of trade. Trade value is created for NOH if MIN moves 2012 talent. If there is a way to split that increased trade value, then both teams would benefit.

Maybe what this trade needs is a third team - or maybe two more - that would really pay more for win-now production.

[Fire Mchale]

The concern I have for that pick is that unless there is a slam-dunk SG or C sitting there waiting for us, we don't gain any ground and handed over a proven NBA scorer to do so. We could argue efficiency, etc, but I feel like Beasley is finally going to start creeping in on the promise everyone thought he has.

It's an interesting way of looking at it and if we're sitting there at the deadline with no improvement shown and Beasley is floating around on defense, I think we pull the trigger.

[Krapinsky]

Trading our players for picks and getting even younger is just going to piss off Adelman. Let him work with what he has.

[B Calrissian]

The only solution I see is the Hornets trading our pick before trading us Gordon. Same situation as it was with the Clippers before the trade.

Assuming for the sake of discussion we agree to trade them Williams, Ridnour, Randolph, Pek, and Utah's 1st for Gordon and Okafor - Who is the best young player they can get by trading our 1st (still valued as it is now)+Ariza?

[[RCG]]

I wouldn't mind making a move to get a lottery pick to get a get like Drummond, Davis, Leonard, Rivers, Beal, Ross or Lamb. I would offer both Utah + Memphis 1sts plus guys like Ridnour, Tolliver, Pekovic, Webster, Randolph. But a trade for Gordon isn't going to happen or our first, nor should it. This year should be about weeding out those who can play from those who can't. Beasley will need to prove he can contribute consistently otherwise he could be on his way out if D.Will looks capable of replacing him, same with Randolph.

[cpfsf]

1. Future Value-for-2012 Talent would probably involve using the NOH pick. Who woudn't you trade from our team for the pick? (Remember, NOH's new record will be based on the talent we send them)

2. Here's a sacriligeous one. Right now, I would not trade Kevin Love for Eric Gordon. But would you do it if NOH included their pick?

Love, Rubio, Williams

It depends. Right now I wouldn't do the trade because New Orleans would have no incentive to tank after trading their pick. I'd wait until the trade deadline before even considering this.

[Worm Guts]

2. Here's a sacriligeous one. Right now, I would not trade Kevin Love for Eric Gordon. But would you do it if NOH included their pick?

No.

We have gone the rebuilding mode too long. It's time to add better players not get worse again.

I think you'd almost have too. That value is too good and we have Williams ready to step in at PF if Love leaves. Anyway, how much rebuilding is it if you're getting a quality player back?

[shrink]

The only solution I see is the Hornets trading our pick before trading us Gordon. Same situation as it was with the Clippers before the trade.

Assuming for the sake of discussion we agree to trade them Williams, Ridnour, Randolph, Pek, and Utah's 1st for Gordon and Okafor - Who is the best young player they can get by trading our 1st (still valued as it is now)+Ariza?

I like the way you think.

There are actually two ways. Your way (NOH trades MIN pick first), which is fair, but might cause some sore feelings with the owner who traded for the 1st. And secondly, MIN can add talent first, and devalue the pick, so it doesn't matter as much if the team trade the pick.

For example, suppose MIN swaps some decent pieces and gets Bogut. MIN is now, arguably, a low play-off team, so the pick may be in the 11-16 range. Now, it might make sense for NOH to send us Gordon, since the pick is fried anyway. Heck, maybe they'd want to swap the MIN pick for our two protected 1sts, which may have more value after they finished the Gordon deal.

But let's go back to your question -- who is the best young player out there that might be worth the MIN 1st, and also might be up for sale?

[shrink]

Young players NOH may be able toget for the MIN 1st:

PG Brandon Knight (#8 - 2011) - DET .. the Pistons are still a little ways from rebuilding, and they were forced to pay Stuckey for three years. It's hard to get teams to trade out this year's pick though.

SG Evan Turner (#2 - 2010) - PHI .. Turner did not live up to the hype last year, so he may have discouraged some PHI fans to be willing to deal him. They've reportedly had Iguodala on the block for some time, so if they can't trade him, this may be a better alternative.


I like our roster with your follow-up trade between NOH and MIN.

Rubio, Barea, Malcolm Lee
Gordon, Wes Johnson, Ellington
Beasley, Webster
Love, Tolliver
Okafor, Darko

Gordon is a guy we can grow with, and I think he's one of those rare players that has a chance at becoming a superstar. Keeping Beasley allows us to see what he will do a in a contract year with all those minutes, instead of trading him for garbage right now, when his trade value is low. I also like Darko coming off the bench. Maybe less pressure will help him improve his inconsistency? And of course, I want to see Love playing his natural position. Maybe use the mini-MLE on some size (Pryz, flyer on Ajinca) and I'd roll with that.

[B Calrissian]

The only solution I see is the Hornets trading our pick before trading us Gordon. Same situation as it was with the Clippers before the trade.

Assuming for the sake of discussion we agree to trade them Williams, Ridnour, Randolph, Pek, and Utah's 1st for Gordon and Okafor - Who is the best young player they can get by trading our 1st (still valued as it is now)+Ariza?

I like the way you think.

There are actually two ways. Your way (NOH trades MIN pick first), which is fair, but might cause some sore feelings with the owner who traded for the 1st. And secondly, MIN can add talent first, and devalue the pick, so it doesn't matter as much if the team trade the pick.

For example, suppose MIN swaps some decent pieces and gets Bogut. MIN is now, arguably, a low play-off team, so the pick may be in the 11-16 range. Now, it might make sense for NOH to send us Gordon, since the pick is fried anyway. Heck, maybe they'd want to swap the MIN pick for our two protected 1sts, which may have more value after they finished the Gordon deal.

But let's go back to your question -- who is the best young player out there that might be worth the MIN 1st, and also might be up for sale?

I like your idea of getting Bogut first then Gordon. My only concern is that if we had to take on Okafor with Gordon we would be extremely front court heavy. I know Bogut was just an example but I think our best bet in that scenario would be to get a win now player at small forward then go after Gordon/Okafor. Gerald Wallace would be ideal. Ridnour/Pek/Tolliver/Utah 1st for Wallace? Ridnour would get to be closer to his family. Portland gets much needed front court depth and Batum moves into the starting line up. Then trade Williams/Beasley/AR/Webster/Mem 1st for Gordon/Okafor.

Our rotation after:
Rubio/Barea
Gordon/Barea/Lee
Wallace/Johnson
Love/Wallace/Okafor
Okafor/Darko

The Hornets roster after (they don't have enough players before or after) :
Jack/Vasquez
Ariza/Belinelli
Beasley/Aminu
Williams/
Kaman/Randolph

As for my question I think they should go after Tyreke Evans. Our 1st/Ariza/Jack for Evans/Garcia. If that is not enough (it probably isn't) then our 1st/Ariza for Evan Turner.

If we combined the two ideas the Hornets could have a really nice group to build around and would have TONS of capspace next offseason. Even if they let Beasley and Randolph walk they would still have Turner, Aminu, Williams, and whoever they get with their pick.

* I did not see your previous post. Glad we agree on Turner being an option. I have a hard time gauging the value of picks because I watch very little college basketball. All I know is that everyone says it's going to be a great draft.