First, here's the language for the two picks:
Receive 2013 first round draft pick from Memphis wrote:Memphis' own 2013 1st round pick to Minnesota via Houston (top 14 protected in the 2013 Draft, top 14 protected in 2014, top 14 protected in 2015, and top 14 protection in 2016 Draft). If Minnesota via Houston has not yet received this first round pick by the 2016 draft, then so long as Memphis' own 2016 2nd round pick is among the top 55 picks then Minnesota via Houston shall instead receive (1) Memphis' own 2016 2nd round pick and (2) cash. If, however, Minnesota via Houston has not yet received this first round pick by the 2016 draft, but Memphis' own 2016 2nd round pick is not among the top 55 picks then Minnesota via Houston shall instead receive (1) Toronto's own 2016 second round pick via Memphis and (2) cash. [Houston - Memphis, 2/24/2011 and then Houston - Minnesota, 6/24/2011]
Give 2013 first round draft pick to Phoenix wrote:Minnesota's own 2013 1st round pick to Phoenix (Top-13 Protected in the 2013 NBA Draft, top-13 protected in 2014, top-12 protected in 2015 and top-12 protected in the 2016 NBA Draft). However, if Minnesota is entitled to receive Memphis' own 1st round pick (top 14 protected in the 2013 Draft, top 14 protected in 2014, top 14 protected in 2015, and top 14 protected in the 2016 Draft) via Houston, then Minnesota shall convey the less favorable of the two picks to Phoenix. If Minnesota does not convey to Phoenix a first round pick by 2016, then Minnesota shall convey to Phoenix Minnesota's own 2016 and 2017 second round picks. [Minnesota-New Orleans-Phoenix, 7/27/2012]
If MIN gets into the play-offs in the West, it's likely they'll have a better record than the 8th seed in the East, turning the Top 13 protection into Top 14 protection, so I'm going to just use the short-hand .. "make the playoffs"
There are four possibilities here:
1. MIN & MEM make the playoffs: PHX gets worse of MEM/MIN pick .. MIN gets better of MEM/MIN pick
2. MEM makes play-offs, MIN misses: PHX gets MEM non-lotto pick .. MIN gets their own lotto pick
3. MIN makes the play-offs, MEM misses: PHX gets MIN pick .. MIN keeps rights to future MEM pick
4. MIN and MEM miss playoffs: MEM and MIN keep their own lottery picks .. MIN still owes PHX
The Stepien Rule states that a team can't make a deal where they would potentially be without a 1st in the next two future drafts. I'll note for clarity that it's "future drafts," so the fact that MIN traded the #16 pick last year doesn't affect the Stepian rule at all.
In cases 1, 2, and 4 - MIN gets a pick so the Stepian rule doesn't apply. In case 3, MIN would not get a pick in 2013. Because of this, MIN cannot trade it's 2014 1st rounder because there is a possibility that they would go two future drafts without a pick. This restriction expires as soon as the standings eliminates the chance for Case 3, or if we do have Case 3, it expires after the 2013 draft.
I will note two alternatives:
a. MIN trades the rights to it's current pick (better of MIN/MEM protected)
b. MIN includes very specific language attached to the pick that says that if Case 3 happens, it won't be conferred for two years after - turning it into a 2015 pick.
