Minnesota Timberwolves Trade Deadline Map

[NebWolvesFan]

I doubt Minnesota makes any big trades but with the likelihood of Minnesota getting a top 3 pick going up with every loss, Rosas has to start creating space to sign the pick.

Currently, Minnesota has 12 guys signed for 138 million with the luxury tax expected to be 139 million. They won't have the even 8 million to sign the No. 3 pick. That 138 doesn't include Vando, who I think would be a big loss if the Wolves lost him in RFA for nothing. When Rosas put together this year's team he did it assuming the team wouldn't have to draft or sign any FAs. Best case scenario Rubio plays like he did in the bubble and he gets traded for someone younger at a position of need (someone like Gordon). That doesn't affect the salary cap because Rubio and the new veteran make roughly the same amount.

Well, players like Rubio, Culver, and HGomez have struggled, and now Rosas needs to clear space to sign an expensive draft pick.

Now, he could wait until after the lottery, but with everyone in the league knowing Rosas is desperate to clear space, rival GMs are going to want draft picks on young players like McDaniels to take Wolves contracts into cap space. Rosas is better off trying to move a couple of deals(Okogie, Layman) into trade exceptions now and cross his fingers that the Wolves get the pick.

Of course, Taylor could sign off on the Wolves paying the luxury tax for the second time in three years. (Sorry, I wanted to end this with a joke).

Rosas/Gupta need to clear 10-15 million to bring in a draft pick and bring back Vando. Good luck with that. I have a feeling Minnesota is going to end up trading Reid/McDaniels and future firsts just to create the room to sign Cunningham or Suggs. Would it be worth it? Sure, but when was the last time a team with the worst record in the league had trade away picks and young talent to create space to sign a No. 1 pick?

[Sugarless]

I doubt Minnesota makes any big trades but with the likelihood of Minnesota getting a top 3 pick going up with every loss, Rosas has to start creating space to sign the pick.

Currently, Minnesota has 12 guys signed for 138 million with the luxury tax expected to be 139 million. They won't have the even 8 million to sign the No. 3 pick. That 138 doesn't include Vando, who I think would be a big loss if the Wolves lost him in RFA for nothing. When Rosas put together this year's team he did it assuming the team wouldn't have to draft or sign any FAs. Best case scenario Rubio plays like he did in the bubble and he gets traded for someone younger at a position of need (someone like Gordon). That doesn't affect the salary cap because Rubio and the new veteran make roughly the same amount.

Well, players like Rubio, Culver, and HGomez have struggled, and now Rosas needs to clear space to sign an expensive draft pick.

Now, he could wait until after the lottery, but with everyone in the league knowing Rosas is desperate to clear space, rival GMs are going to want draft picks on young players like McDaniels to take Wolves contracts into cap space. Rosas is better off trying to move a couple of deals(Okogie, Layman) into trade exceptions now and cross his fingers that the Wolves get the pick.

Of course, Taylor could sign off on the Wolves paying the luxury tax for the second time in three years. (Sorry, I wanted to end this with a joke).

Rosas/Gupta need to clear 10-15 million to bring in a draft pick and bring back Vando. Good luck with that. I have a feeling Minnesota is going to end up trading Reid/McDaniels and future firsts just to create the room to sign Cunningham or Suggs. Would it be worth it? Sure, but when was the last time a team with the worst record in the league had trade away picks and young talent to create space to sign a No. 1 pick?

You don't need to be below the luxury tax threshold to be able to sign your first round draft picks, so the Wolves don't have to shed salary regardless of whether they retain their 2021 1st round pick or not. They also don't have to make room to sign Vanderbilt since they have his bird rights. They would just have to pay the tax if they don't make other moves and get over the limit.

[NebWolvesFan]

I doubt Minnesota makes any big trades but with the likelihood of Minnesota getting a top 3 pick going up with every loss, Rosas has to start creating space to sign the pick.

Currently, Minnesota has 12 guys signed for 138 million with the luxury tax expected to be 139 million. They won't have the even 8 million to sign the No. 3 pick. That 138 doesn't include Vando, who I think would be a big loss if the Wolves lost him in RFA for nothing. When Rosas put together this year's team he did it assuming the team wouldn't have to draft or sign any FAs. Best case scenario Rubio plays like he did in the bubble and he gets traded for someone younger at a position of need (someone like Gordon). That doesn't affect the salary cap because Rubio and the new veteran make roughly the same amount.

Well, players like Rubio, Culver, and HGomez have struggled, and now Rosas needs to clear space to sign an expensive draft pick.

Now, he could wait until after the lottery, but with everyone in the league knowing Rosas is desperate to clear space, rival GMs are going to want draft picks on young players like McDaniels to take Wolves contracts into cap space. Rosas is better off trying to move a couple of deals(Okogie, Layman) into trade exceptions now and cross his fingers that the Wolves get the pick.

Of course, Taylor could sign off on the Wolves paying the luxury tax for the second time in three years. (Sorry, I wanted to end this with a joke).

Rosas/Gupta need to clear 10-15 million to bring in a draft pick and bring back Vando. Good luck with that. I have a feeling Minnesota is going to end up trading Reid/McDaniels and future firsts just to create the room to sign Cunningham or Suggs. Would it be worth it? Sure, but when was the last time a team with the worst record in the league had trade away picks and young talent to create space to sign a No. 1 pick?

You don't need to be below the luxury tax threshold to be able to sign your first round draft picks, so the Wolves don't have to shed salary regardless of whether they retain their 2021 1st round pick or not. They also don't have to make room to sign Vanderbilt since they have his bird rights. They would just have to pay the tax if they don't make other moves and get over the limit.

If you think Taylor who's losing millions and millions is going to pay the tax two out of three years, you're a very optimistic person. He will tell Rosas and Gupta to cut salary. Taylor has said many times that he may pay the tax for a playoff team, but he isn't for a rebuilding project.

[shrink]

I doubt Minnesota makes any big trades but with the likelihood of Minnesota getting a top 3 pick going up with every loss, Rosas has to start creating space to sign the pick.

Currently, Minnesota has 12 guys signed for 138 million with the luxury tax expected to be 139 million. They won't have the even 8 million to sign the No. 3 pick. That 138 doesn't include Vando, who I think would be a big loss if the Wolves lost him in RFA for nothing. When Rosas put together this year's team he did it assuming the team wouldn't have to draft or sign any FAs. Best case scenario Rubio plays like he did in the bubble and he gets traded for someone younger at a position of need (someone like Gordon). That doesn't affect the salary cap because Rubio and the new veteran make roughly the same amount.

Well, players like Rubio, Culver, and HGomez have struggled, and now Rosas needs to clear space to sign an expensive draft pick.

Now, he could wait until after the lottery, but with everyone in the league knowing Rosas is desperate to clear space, rival GMs are going to want draft picks on young players like McDaniels to take Wolves contracts into cap space. Rosas is better off trying to move a couple of deals(Okogie, Layman) into trade exceptions now and cross his fingers that the Wolves get the pick.

Of course, Taylor could sign off on the Wolves paying the luxury tax for the second time in three years. (Sorry, I wanted to end this with a joke).

Rosas/Gupta need to clear 10-15 million to bring in a draft pick and bring back Vando. Good luck with that. I have a feeling Minnesota is going to end up trading Reid/McDaniels and future firsts just to create the room to sign Cunningham or Suggs. Would it be worth it? Sure, but when was the last time a team with the worst record in the league had trade away picks and young talent to create space to sign a No. 1 pick?

You don't need to be below the luxury tax threshold to be able to sign your first round draft picks, so the Wolves don't have to shed salary regardless of whether they retain their 2021 1st round pick or not. They also don't have to make room to sign Vanderbilt since they have his bird rights. They would just have to pay the tax if they don't make other moves and get over the limit.

If you think Taylor who's losing millions and millions is going to pay the tax two out of three years, you're a very optimistic person. He will tell Rosas and Gupta to cut salary. Taylor has said many times that he may pay the tax for a playoff team, but he isn't for a rebuilding project.

I agree with you, but luxury taxes aren’t calculated until the end of the season, so Rosas can go into the lux now and has all year to try to move MIN back under the lux. He won’t worry now about a higher salary on a higher lottery pick.

[NebWolvesFan]

You don't need to be below the luxury tax threshold to be able to sign your first round draft picks, so the Wolves don't have to shed salary regardless of whether they retain their 2021 1st round pick or not. They also don't have to make room to sign Vanderbilt since they have his bird rights. They would just have to pay the tax if they don't make other moves and get over the limit.

If you think Taylor who's losing millions and millions is going to pay the tax two out of three years, you're a very optimistic person. He will tell Rosas and Gupta to cut salary. Taylor has said many times that he may pay the tax for a playoff team, but he isn't for a rebuilding project.

I agree with you, but luxury taxes aren’t calculated until the end of the season, so Rosas can go into the lux now and has all year to try to move MIN back under the lux. He won’t worry now about a higher salary on a higher lottery pick.

That's what everyone said when they went over the cap for Russell and they weren't able to get back under. And that was only a few million. Drafting Cunningham and bringing back Vando will probably put them 10+ million over. And if Rosas waits until the last minute, GMs with cap space are going to fleece him for picks and young players.

[Sugarless]

I doubt Minnesota makes any big trades but with the likelihood of Minnesota getting a top 3 pick going up with every loss, Rosas has to start creating space to sign the pick.

Currently, Minnesota has 12 guys signed for 138 million with the luxury tax expected to be 139 million. They won't have the even 8 million to sign the No. 3 pick. That 138 doesn't include Vando, who I think would be a big loss if the Wolves lost him in RFA for nothing. When Rosas put together this year's team he did it assuming the team wouldn't have to draft or sign any FAs. Best case scenario Rubio plays like he did in the bubble and he gets traded for someone younger at a position of need (someone like Gordon). That doesn't affect the salary cap because Rubio and the new veteran make roughly the same amount.

Well, players like Rubio, Culver, and HGomez have struggled, and now Rosas needs to clear space to sign an expensive draft pick.

Now, he could wait until after the lottery, but with everyone in the league knowing Rosas is desperate to clear space, rival GMs are going to want draft picks on young players like McDaniels to take Wolves contracts into cap space. Rosas is better off trying to move a couple of deals(Okogie, Layman) into trade exceptions now and cross his fingers that the Wolves get the pick.

Of course, Taylor could sign off on the Wolves paying the luxury tax for the second time in three years. (Sorry, I wanted to end this with a joke).

Rosas/Gupta need to clear 10-15 million to bring in a draft pick and bring back Vando. Good luck with that. I have a feeling Minnesota is going to end up trading Reid/McDaniels and future firsts just to create the room to sign Cunningham or Suggs. Would it be worth it? Sure, but when was the last time a team with the worst record in the league had trade away picks and young talent to create space to sign a No. 1 pick?

You don't need to be below the luxury tax threshold to be able to sign your first round draft picks, so the Wolves don't have to shed salary regardless of whether they retain their 2021 1st round pick or not. They also don't have to make room to sign Vanderbilt since they have his bird rights. They would just have to pay the tax if they don't make other moves and get over the limit.

If you think Taylor who's losing millions and millions is going to pay the tax two out of three years, you're a very optimistic person. He will tell Rosas and Gupta to cut salary. Taylor has said many times that he may pay the tax for a playoff team, but he isn't for a rebuilding project.

Nobody thinks Taylor's interested in paying the luxury tax for a losing team, that much is clear. But the way you worded your message made it seem like signing a FRP and getting over the tax was an impossibility, which it is not.

Like Shrink said, the luxury tax is also calculated at the end of the season, so Rosas would have plenty of time to move some contracts and get enough money off the books to get back under the threshold, and it shouldn't prove too difficult with one less year in everybody's contract.

In summary, the Wolves have many problems to look at, but you can rest assured that the luxury tax won't be an issue when it comes to them pursuing and signing their FRP this year, if they get to keep it.

[Sugarless]

If you think Taylor who's losing millions and millions is going to pay the tax two out of three years, you're a very optimistic person. He will tell Rosas and Gupta to cut salary. Taylor has said many times that he may pay the tax for a playoff team, but he isn't for a rebuilding project.

I agree with you, but luxury taxes aren’t calculated until the end of the season, so Rosas can go into the lux now and has all year to try to move MIN back under the lux. He won’t worry now about a higher salary on a higher lottery pick.

That's what everyone said when they went over the cap for Russell and they weren't able to get back under. And that was only a few million. Drafting Cunningham and bringing back Vando will probably put them 10+ million over. And if Rosas waits until the last minute, GMs with cap space are going to fleece him for picks and young players.

It's not that bad. They're now sitting at 131.2M, with 3.5M of those being non-guaranteed (Reid and Nowell). It wouldn't make much sense to get rid of Naz at that price and they may want to keep Nowell for a third season, but even with both of them on board they're still several million below the tax line, while having basically a full roster. With a 1-3 FRP plus Vanderbilt (who won't command much, he's not that good at anything other than rebounding and being a high-energy guy, and he has several glaring weaknesses) they would only need a few millions to get out of luxury tax territory, and they have several contracts that they should be able to move without surrendering any real assets (Ricky would be an expiring, so would Juancho whose 3rd year is not fully guaranteed, same goes for Okogie at the end of his rookie deal, while Culver in his 3rd season could have a couple suitors that are still willing to give him a chance).

[SmokeyPaw]

One target that I would have is Paul Reed. Never understood why he went 38 spots after Precious Achiuwa. Statistically pretty comparable in college.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=precious-achiuwa--paul-reed

He's been tearing up the g league:
Pts. 21.6
RBS 11.3
Ass. 2. 0
Blk 2.0
Stl. 2.2
FG: .57
3pt. .43

Not sure what it would cost to get the sixers to trade him. I might waive one of our young players at them. Okogie? Nowell?

[jpatrick]

One target that I would have is Paul Reed. Never understood why he went 38 spots after Precious Achiuwa. Statistically pretty comparable in college.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=precious-achiuwa--paul-reed

He's been tearing up the g league:
Pts. 21.6
RBS 11.3
Ass. 2. 0
Blk 2.0
Stl. 2.2
FG: .57
3pt. .43

Not sure what it would cost to get the sixers to trade him. I might waive one of our young players at them. Okogie? Nowell?

I’ve become wary of g league stats but I never understood his drop either. I know one of the NBA analysts, maybe Hollinger, felt that the analytics thought Reed should be a lotto pick.

[Jedzz]

Rosas/Gupta need to clear 10-15 million to bring in a draft pick and bring back Vando. Good luck with that. I have a feeling Minnesota is going to end up trading Reid/McDaniels and future firsts just to create the room to sign Cunningham or Suggs. Would it be worth it? Sure, but when was the last time a team with the worst record in the league had trade away picks and young talent to create space to sign a No. 1 pick?

You don't need to be below the luxury tax threshold to be able to sign your first round draft picks, so the Wolves don't have to shed salary regardless of whether they retain their 2021 1st round pick or not. They also don't have to make room to sign Vanderbilt since they have his bird rights. They would just have to pay the tax if they don't make other moves and get over the limit.

If you think Taylor who's losing millions and millions is going to pay the tax two out of three years, you're a very optimistic person. He will tell Rosas and Gupta to cut salary. Taylor has said many times that he may pay the tax for a playoff team, but he isn't for a rebuilding project.

I agree with you, but luxury taxes aren’t calculated until the end of the season, so Rosas can go into the lux now and has all year to try to move MIN back under the lux. He won’t worry now about a higher salary on a higher lottery pick.

This is interesting. 2021 costs
NAME 8-11 2021 top1-3 PICK
Edwards 10.2 #1 PICK
Culver 6.3 #6 PICK
Juancho 6.1 #15 PICK
Okogie 4 #20 PICK
Layman 3.9 2ND RD PICK
McDaniels 2 2ND RD PICK
Nowell 1.7 2ND RD PICK
Reid 1.7
Towns 31 #1 PICK
Russell 30 #2 PICK
Rubio 17.8 #5 PICK
Beasley 14.3 #19 PICK


These three don't currently count against projected cap/lux in 2021 and won't provide any cap savings if cut.
Davis
JMac
Vanderbilt


How many top 10 players can you afford on your team if they aren't significant producers or consistently playing?

[shrink]

I agree with you, but luxury taxes aren’t calculated until the end of the season, so Rosas can go into the lux now and has all year to try to move MIN back under the lux. He won’t worry now about a higher salary on a higher lottery pick.

This is interesting. 2021 costs
Edwards 10.2 #1 PICK
Culver 6.3 #6 PICK
Juancho 6.1 #15 PICK
Okogie 4 #20 PICK
Layman 3.9 2ND RD PICK
McDaniels 2 2ND RD PICK
Nowell 1.7 2ND RD PICK
Reid 1.7
Towns 31 #1 PICK
Russell 30 #2 PICK
Rubio 17.8 #5 PICK
Beasley 14.3 #19 PICK
NAME 8-11 2021 top1-3 PICK

These three don't currently count against projected cap/lux in 2021 and won't provide any cap savings if cut.
Davis
JMac
Vanderbilt


How many top 10 players can you afford on your team if they aren't significant producers?

This is a good point, and one part of roster-building that I think people overlook.

MIN is already locked into two max deals, so $60 mil is sunk into two players. That’s not unusual, and some teams have two players with higher maxes. But it does mean that the rest of your team needs to be constructed next year under the luxury threshold for ($136-$60) $76 mil for 12-16 more players over the rest of the year. This implies several things:

1. Adequate free agent starters are going to cost more than the MLE, so $12-30 mil. How many can you afford?
2. If you have a contract like that who isn’t a starter (Rubio), it does a lot of damage to what else you can afford elsewhere.
3. It is important to find some production from cheap sources.
4. It is a big benefit to pick the right lottery players, so their larger salaries are OK if they become starters.

On the back side of the roster, Rosas has done ok with cheap players like McLaughlin, Reid, Nowell, Vanderbilt, McDaniels. If you can get even adequate back up production at these prices, that’s a win. It saves you from paying sub-MLE Free Agent prices for back ups, like Juancho, Layman etc.

Finally, I know I’m wandering, but I’ll end by talking about how we did a bad job surrounding KG with talent. Back then, we tried to fill our holes in free agency, and since players didn’t want to come here, we had several MLE deals with extra years to moderate players. Most were generally starters, some had to come off the bench, but if you have too many MLE guys like Gomes, Hudson, Jaric, Hassell, etc, you don’t have the room to bring in good starters. Rosas needs the space to find and pay a Malik Beasley. He got some of that space with the cheap guys, and loses space with guys like Juancho, Layman, and Rubio (especially if he comes off the bench or is minimized in a corner). I think with the roster in such bad shape, Rosas has to keep KAT and DLo, keep as many as the cheap guys as possible, and use the salary flexibility to find the next Beasley, and give room to develop their more expensive lottery youth.

[shrink]

One last comment.

I’m always pleased to hear people these days talking about the importance of the luxury threshold. I gravitated here 15 years ago because at least there were a couple people (Klomp, revprodeji, Devilzsidewalk, Dr. Krapinski, a few others), that would mention the realities that the CBA created. Still, the bulk would say, “we should just get <insert expensive star!>”. Few (at least not zero like other boards) would mention these restrictions. Larry’s FAQ was barely known, and Gupta’s ESPN Trade Checker was in its infancy, so I guess that’s understandable.

Today though, it makes me proud that most people understand what a big deal things like the luxury tax are, or how restricted free agency works. Things have really changed when I’m the guy saying to don’t overestimate the impact! I would have never predicted our board would get this smart back then (“who would care about the CBA? lol!”), but we have so many good posters now who know many of the intricacies of the rules, that it gives me warm fuzzies. Thanks.