Gersson Rosas - In or Out?!

[shrink]

I judge a GM based on the logic. I am disappointed thus far with the outcome, but I still believe in the logic about why the trade was made and I can't see any evidence yet that shows that the logic that Rosas used and the risk calculation used was wrong. This is an extreme example, but if a trade is made understanding that there is a 5% risk of a disastrous outcome and that 95 out of 100 times it will work out well and 5% disastrous... and the trade hits that 5%... that is not a wrong move. Again, the outcome has been disastrous... but with the logic I think we are multiple standard deviations about the outcome that could have been expected if you're running simulations when trying to make a decision. That sucks... but it's not a reason to get mad at the GM.

I like this, and I have to admit, I saw the logic for David Kahn too. He was a value investor, trying to get upside assets for distressed prices.

Ultimately though, he chose the wrong assets. His logic was fine, his execution was bad.

For me, I agree with your concept of placing your bets, and judging not by random chance, but whether they were wise bets. Like I said, I don’t know if Russell will progress enough on both sides of the ball to make that a worthwhile trade. For me though, I think that’s a low probability, based on his physical limitations, and his previous history of a disdain for defense.

[TheZachAttack]

I will also add that we are in one of the worst case scenarios possible and we still have a 40% chance at the following...

Cade Cunningham/Mobley/Suggs + Edwards + D Lo

for

Lamelo + Wiggins + late lottery/mid first round pick.

While these draftee’s are a possibility, they shouldn’t be included as part of the trade, because we would have had them whether we had made the trade or not. It would be like including the 2025 pick.

Not the main point of my post and I think it should because it's directly related to the decision making of the trade? If you're adding a pick you're sunning scenarios on outcomes of what that will look like?

1) The idea on trading the pick was that the Wolves would be good enough where the pick would be a late lottery or high teen pick in 2020.

2) If you're bad enough to get the pick that means you're giving up a 2022 pick.

3) The players on your roster, partially because of the trade, impact the 2022 pick.

4) I was respond to posters who were including Lamelo/Edwards because of the fact that we likely would have chosen Edwards if we didn't have D Lo and including Cunningham to GSW.

[shrink]

And Minnesota took him KNOWING he was going to take time to develop. This isn't a shock to them. The important thing is how we develop him going forward. That's why I don't think it's fair to judge based on the first half of the rookie season.

I agree. I’m completely lost what you’re trying to say then.

He is saying trust the process...like every Klomp post on here for years.

I think I’m starting to get it though. I think he is saying (and Klomp, correct me if I’m wrong here), that it’s too soon to say Edward < LaMelo.

I don’t disagree with that, but in Zach’s world of probabilities, the odds certainly don’t make this look like a favorable swap. Most experts before the draft chose Ball over Edwards, based on their predictions of the entirety of their careers. Moreover, the odds have certainly swing even farther in LaMelo’s favor based on Ball’s successful first half, where he has shown his shooting (his supposed big weakness) isn’t as bad as they predicted.

I’m not saying it is confirmed Ball will be better than Edwards. Ant has plenty of room for growth (but so does Ball). I am saying that if we tried to trade Ball for LaMelo right now, the whole NBA would laugh at us. That’s something, considering we drafted him #1 over #3 less than four months ago.

[Foye]

I agree. I’m completely lost what you’re trying to say then.

He is saying trust the process...like every Klomp post on here for years.

I think I’m starting to get it though. I think he is saying (and Klomp, correct me if I’m wrong here), that it’s too soon to say Edward < LaMelo.

I don’t disagree with that, but in Zach’s world of probabilities, the odds certainly don’t make this look like a favorable swap. Most experts before the draft chose Ball over Edwards, based on their predictions of the entirety of their careers. Moreover, the odds have certainly swing even farther in LaMelo’s favor based on Ball’s successful first half, where he has shown his shooting (his supposed big weakness) isn’t as bad as they predicted.

I’m not saying it is confirmed Ball will be better than Edwards. Ant has plenty of room for growth (but so does Ball). I am saying that if we tried to trade Ball for LaMelo right now, the whole NBA would laugh at us. That’s something, considering we drafted him #1 over #3 less than four months ago.

What I see right now:
- Edwards is costing the franchise wins because he is one of if not the worst player in the league right now
- Less wins demotivate the team
- Edwards is not held accountable for his defensive mistakes, bad shot attempts, los effciency, poor court awareness and passing.
- If you are not held accountable you will most likely never grow to full potential as a player. Westbrook is a good example here. He never managed to put it all together despite his sick athleticism because no one ever held him accountable for his poor decisions.
- If your coach does not hold everyone accountable that decreases the team motivation because it is not fair to let Ant get all the minutes through his mistakes despite him costing the team more wins than anyone on the roster.

Edwards right now is a player that deserves 15 min per game at max. and it would be in everyone‘s best interest...even Edwards to limit him to these minutes. Let him go harder in practice, watch more tapes, etc. until he actually is able to earn starter minutes.

Just letting the rookie play 30+ a night because he is the new marketing story is what the Wolves have done for the past decade and it has never led to success.
And unless you are drafting a generational player it will never do so in the future.

[AbeVigodaLive]

He is saying trust the process...like every Klomp post on here for years.

I think I’m starting to get it though. I think he is saying (and Klomp, correct me if I’m wrong here), that it’s too soon to say Edward < LaMelo.

I don’t disagree with that, but in Zach’s world of probabilities, the odds certainly don’t make this look like a favorable swap. Most experts before the draft chose Ball over Edwards, based on their predictions of the entirety of their careers. Moreover, the odds have certainly swing even farther in LaMelo’s favor based on Ball’s successful first half, where he has shown his shooting (his supposed big weakness) isn’t as bad as they predicted.

I’m not saying it is confirmed Ball will be better than Edwards. Ant has plenty of room for growth (but so does Ball). I am saying that if we tried to trade Ball for LaMelo right now, the whole NBA would laugh at us. That’s something, considering we drafted him #1 over #3 less than four months ago.

What I see right now:
- Edwards is costing the franchise wins because he is one of if not the worst player in the league right now
- Less wins demotivate the team
- Edwards is not held accountable for his defensive mistakes, bad shot attempts, los effciency, poor court awareness and passing.
- If you are not held accountable you will most likely never grow to full potential as a player. Westbrook is a good example here. He never managed to put it all together despite his sick athleticism because no one ever held him accountable for his poor decisions.
- If your coach does not hold everyone accountable that decreases the team motivation because it is not fair to let Ant get all the minutes through his mistakes despite him costing the team more wins than anyone on the roster.

Edwards right now is a player that deserves 15 min per game at max. and it would be in everyone‘s best interest...even Edwards to limit him to these minutes. Let him go harder in practice, watch more tapes, etc. until he actually is able to earn starter minutes.

Just letting the rookie play 30+ a night because he is the new marketing story is what the Wolves have done for the past decade and it has never led to success.
And unless you are drafting a generational player it will never do so in the future.

Yikes. Tough crowd. All that negative stuff... and then compare him to Westbrook.

I am 100% all-in on Edwards if he becomes the next Westbrook and makes 9 All NBA teams... has 6 top 10 MVP finishes... and makes the playoffs almost every single year.

Heck, with that sort of resume, he'd be challenging Garnett for best Timerwolves player of all time.

[shrink]

Heck, with that sort of resume, he'd be challenging Garnett for best Timerwolves player of all time.

Burn the heretic!

[Foye]

I think I’m starting to get it though. I think he is saying (and Klomp, correct me if I’m wrong here), that it’s too soon to say Edward < LaMelo.

I don’t disagree with that, but in Zach’s world of probabilities, the odds certainly don’t make this look like a favorable swap. Most experts before the draft chose Ball over Edwards, based on their predictions of the entirety of their careers. Moreover, the odds have certainly swing even farther in LaMelo’s favor based on Ball’s successful first half, where he has shown his shooting (his supposed big weakness) isn’t as bad as they predicted.

I’m not saying it is confirmed Ball will be better than Edwards. Ant has plenty of room for growth (but so does Ball). I am saying that if we tried to trade Ball for LaMelo right now, the whole NBA would laugh at us. That’s something, considering we drafted him #1 over #3 less than four months ago.

What I see right now:
- Edwards is costing the franchise wins because he is one of if not the worst player in the league right now
- Less wins demotivate the team
- Edwards is not held accountable for his defensive mistakes, bad shot attempts, los effciency, poor court awareness and passing.
- If you are not held accountable you will most likely never grow to full potential as a player. Westbrook is a good example here. He never managed to put it all together despite his sick athleticism because no one ever held him accountable for his poor decisions.
- If your coach does not hold everyone accountable that decreases the team motivation because it is not fair to let Ant get all the minutes through his mistakes despite him costing the team more wins than anyone on the roster.

Edwards right now is a player that deserves 15 min per game at max. and it would be in everyone‘s best interest...even Edwards to limit him to these minutes. Let him go harder in practice, watch more tapes, etc. until he actually is able to earn starter minutes.

Just letting the rookie play 30+ a night because he is the new marketing story is what the Wolves have done for the past decade and it has never led to success.
And unless you are drafting a generational player it will never do so in the future.

Yikes. Tough crowd. All that negative stuff... and then compare him to Westbrook.

I am 100% all-in on Edwards if he becomes the next Westbrook and makes 9 All NBA teams... has 6 top 10 MVP finishes... and makes the playoffs almost every single year.

Heck, with that sort of resume, he'd be challenging Garnett for best Timerwolves player of all time.

You misunderstood the point.
It is not a comparison. The only thing you could compare between the two is athleticism.
It was just an example of a player who never reached his full ceiling due to his basketball iq.

Edwards is headed that way too if they continue to pet-peeve him through bad decision making.

[Jedzz]

I would say this poll however small the set of people has come to an answer. Or are some waiting to see him flip the whole roster this deadline again or not?

[AbeVigodaLive]

What I see right now:
- Edwards is costing the franchise wins because he is one of if not the worst player in the league right now
- Less wins demotivate the team
- Edwards is not held accountable for his defensive mistakes, bad shot attempts, los effciency, poor court awareness and passing.
- If you are not held accountable you will most likely never grow to full potential as a player. Westbrook is a good example here. He never managed to put it all together despite his sick athleticism because no one ever held him accountable for his poor decisions.
- If your coach does not hold everyone accountable that decreases the team motivation because it is not fair to let Ant get all the minutes through his mistakes despite him costing the team more wins than anyone on the roster.

Edwards right now is a player that deserves 15 min per game at max. and it would be in everyone‘s best interest...even Edwards to limit him to these minutes. Let him go harder in practice, watch more tapes, etc. until he actually is able to earn starter minutes.

Just letting the rookie play 30+ a night because he is the new marketing story is what the Wolves have done for the past decade and it has never led to success.
And unless you are drafting a generational player it will never do so in the future.

Yikes. Tough crowd. All that negative stuff... and then compare him to Westbrook.

I am 100% all-in on Edwards if he becomes the next Westbrook and makes 9 All NBA teams... has 6 top 10 MVP finishes... and makes the playoffs almost every single year.

Heck, with that sort of resume, he'd be challenging Garnett for best Timerwolves player of all time.

You misunderstood the point.
It is not a comparison. The only thing you could compare between the two is athleticism.
It was just an example of a player who never reached his full ceiling due to his basketball iq.

Edwards is headed that way too if they continue to pet-peeve him through bad decision making.

Meh. Just think there are probably 200 better "not reaching potential" comparisons.

Did you expect Westbrook to be a top 5 player in NBA history or something?

The guy is a first-ballot HOFer, MVP, and perennial All NBA guy. Yet he's constantly ripped for what he doesn't do. Sometimes, people act like he's a moronic basketball player. You don't reach his status by having poor basketball IQ. It's a disservice to a really great player.




[Note: He's had flameouts, but I don't know if that should be attributed to "poor basketball iq" as much as "grandiose sense of self" or "headstrong stubborness" or something else entirely.]

[Jedzz]

Yikes. Tough crowd. All that negative stuff... and then compare him to Westbrook.

I am 100% all-in on Edwards if he becomes the next Westbrook and makes 9 All NBA teams... has 6 top 10 MVP finishes... and makes the playoffs almost every single year.

Heck, with that sort of resume, he'd be challenging Garnett for best Timerwolves player of all time.

You misunderstood the point.
It is not a comparison. The only thing you could compare between the two is athleticism.
It was just an example of a player who never reached his full ceiling due to his basketball iq.

Edwards is headed that way too if they continue to pet-peeve him through bad decision making.

Meh. Just think there are probably 200 better "not reaching potential" comparisons.

Did you expect Westbrook to be a top 5 player in NBA history or something?

The guy is a first-ballot HOFer, MVP, and perennial All NBA guy. Yet he's constantly ripped for what he doesn't do. Sometimes, people act like he's a moronic basketball player. You don't reach his status by having poor basketball IQ. It's a disservice to a really great player.




[Note: He's had flameouts, but I don't know if that should be attributed to "poor basketball iq" as much as "grandiose sense of self" or "headstrong stubborness" or something else entirely.]

Westbrook obviously has some game IQ focus issues during enough games, takes shots he shouldn't because of his grandiose sense of self, stubborness, or clear lack of understanding that he's part of a team that might have others better capable of some things now and then which are sometimes just as glaringly obvious as his absolute star level competitiveness, consistent efforts and will to score at the net. So in this way he and Edwards might actually have some other comparable traits besides just athleticism. They don't know when to say when and both probably believe they are the best person to handle (insert anything).

Westbrook has no championships for all his personal accolades. (triple double juggernaut)
In a prior year, almost no one here wanted Westbrook in trade. They had heaps of negatives to share about him.

Now they drafted a Westbrook-lite? sigh We should be so lucky, but I don't quite expect that.

Beyond his talent, there's an element of chaos introduced by his attitude toward the game. Those two things in concert make Westbrook an all-time great and certainly one of the best ever without a championship.

[Klomp]

Meh. Just think there are probably 200 better "not reaching potential" comparisons.

Did you expect Westbrook to be a top 5 player in NBA history or something?

The guy is a first-ballot HOFer, MVP, and perennial All NBA guy. Yet he's constantly ripped for what he doesn't do. Sometimes, people act like he's a moronic basketball player. You don't reach his status by having poor basketball IQ. It's a disservice to a really great player.




[Note: He's had flameouts, but I don't know if that should be attributed to "poor basketball iq" as much as "grandiose sense of self" or "headstrong stubborness" or something else entirely.]

Westbrook obviously has some game IQ focus issues during enough games, takes shots he shouldn't because of his grandiose sense of self, stubborness, or clear lack of understanding that he's part of a team that might have others better capable of some things now and then which are sometimes just as glaringly obvious as his absolute star level competitiveness, consistent efforts and will to score at the net. So in this way he and Edwards might actually have some other comparable traits besides just athleticism. They don't know when to say when and both probably believe they are the best person to handle (insert anything).

Westbrook has no championships for all his personal accolades. (triple double juggernaut)
In a prior year, almost no one here wanted Westbrook in trade. They had heaps of negatives to share about him.

Now they drafted a Westbrook-lite? sigh We should be so lucky, but I don't quite expect that.

Beyond his talent, there's an element of chaos introduced by his attitude toward the game. Those two things in concert make Westbrook an all-time great and certainly one of the best ever without a championship.

[/quote]
I agree the Westbrook comp isn't great.

But to the bolded, you're forgetting alot of context. Age, contract situation, current franchise status, etc. Lots of reasons for Westbrook not to be a good target that are totally unrelated to the Edwards situation.

[andyhop]

Most likely Rosas gets the rest of this year and then is used to dismantle the team next year by trading KAT and anyone else he can if it appears as doomed then as it is now before being made the scapegoat and sacked to give the new GM a clean blame free slate to start from

[Jedzz]

Westbrook has no championships for all his personal accolades. (triple double juggernaut)
In a prior year, almost no one here wanted Westbrook in trade. They had heaps of negatives to share about him.

Now they drafted a Westbrook-lite? sigh We should be so lucky, but I don't quite expect that.

Beyond his talent, there's an element of chaos introduced by his attitude toward the game. Those two things in concert make Westbrook an all-time great and certainly one of the best ever without a championship.

I agree the Westbrook comp isn't great.

But to the bolded, you're forgetting alot of context. Age, contract situation, current franchise status, etc. Lots of reasons for Westbrook not to be a good target that are totally unrelated to the Edwards situation.

I see your points, but wouldn't say I believe such things to be right. Westbrook would have brought a level of play to every game here we may have never seen before in Timbertroll territory. He's still playing...tick tick tick. But if Wolves drafted someone along his lines why is it better to have a younger less refined version for 4-6 years when you know likelihood of him moving on whether turns out good or bad is really high. Might as well take the real deal for as many years as you can get.

Would Towns/Westbrook be more deadly than Towns/Edwards not only this year and the next two, but the previous years they could have had him with Towns? People that can't stand Dlo now could have avoided that. People that can't stand Rubio back could have avoided that. He's a guard, so shouldn't break the Rosas rules. The team would 100% have had more wins since adding him and you could say if they used those two together well it wouldn't be as hard to add a FA or two to make some waves. After all, they went into the Lux anyway. None of this is here nor there. But I find it interesting nonetheless.