Guards - shooting

[TheZachAttack]

Nowell's 2020-21 per 36 numbers (age 21 season):

20.7 ppg (49% 2 PT FG - 41% 3 PT FG on 7.5 att/g - 85% FT on 4.1 att/g)
4.5 rbd
2.6 ast
1.4 TO

Beasley's best per 36 numbers for Denver (age 22 season):

17.6 PPG (56% 2 PT FG - 40% 3 PT FG (7.8 att/g) - 82% FT (2 att/g)
3.8 rbd
1.9 ast
1.1 TO

Again, be submissive and flippant all you want... but my comment about Nowell's per 36 numbers being better than Beasley's is simply based on the fact that they are. I don't make any claims past that.

Sorry bud. Class is in session. I know you're used to railroading people on this board, but this time it came back to bite you.

Flippant? Flippant was your worthless one line response about per36 backing your stories and I guess telling me not to interject at all. When here I had agreed with some and yet kindly suggested that I think they are not quite as similar as you were suggesting. I described what I've seen that makes them dissimalar. Not numbers because there is really nothing all that similar about their starts in this league besides neither was handed a large rotation role as a rookie. But of course, you acknowledge absolutely none of those things mentioned in your response. Just a worthless per36 claim. Why even respond to me if you don't want to agree or disagree with what I've pointed out? Per36 wasn't a good basis for your original claims, cherry picking time slots doesn't substantiate them now, and speaks to nothing I said. Are you angry now because I responded less than friendly after your flippant dismiss?

Es Klingt schrecklich, aber dismissive is all you'll get now slinging what you have and are now again. You are doing exactly what I asked you not to if talking to me. You are cherry picking to fit your narrative using per36 and you overlooked the massive difference in 25 games to 81 of the random time sets you chose to focus in on. There is a universe of things telling me not to compare these two this way. The simplest of which is you are using a very small sample set that doesn't match well with the amount of games Beasely was playing. Over a greater set of games regression to a mean occurs. I'm excited for Nowell's chance finally. I don't have a pony in an argument race against him and I don't want you dragging me into one. Especially with junk like this.

If it's a free class you are after...
# You are using a 25 game stretch of this season for Nowell.
# You want us to look at Beasley's 2018-19 season of 81 games.
# You don't think we can find 25 game stretch within Beasley's games up to that point with per36 numbers that compete with this little nugget of time in Nowell's short career? Any decent player has a nice stretch of games somewhere while developing otherwise teams would give up on them.
# I'll let you do the work figuring out the per36, but taking a two minute looksee I'll suggest the 25 consecutive games from Dec 29, 2018 to February 22, 2019. All in "Beasley's Age 22" season as you called it. Whatever that was supposed to match up with. If that stretch doesn't cut it, let me know and I'll quickly seek out 25 others within Beasley's game list.

In the meantime, I'm done talking with anyone trying to pit themselves against me and trying to force me into talking badly about Nowell. Because it betrays the 2500 or whatever posts I've spent suggesting he's capable of exaclty what he's shown lately if the team ever chose to believe in him with real minutes. It's only sad to me because he's now getting this burn for trade highlighting possibilities. I had hoped it would have happened last season but I was let down by his struggle to translate yet in minor minutes per game that evidently were higher than Beasley got in each of his first two seasons. Nowell now has a huge total of 10 whole games of at least 20 minutes in his career. I would sooner argue there is something similar enough to compare Nowell to McDaniels, and Beasley to Okogie, if allowed to speak outside their shooting abiltiies and instead focus on how they play. Which is what I tried to point out that I think actually makes them different types of players.

There are obvious differences and limitations to the comparison, there isn't anyone claiming otherwise. There are comparisons to make based on inconsistent role and the fact that both players seem to become more consistent as players and shooters with more consistent minutes. They play differently, I might even argue that the way that Nowell plays suggests higher upside than Beasley's ceiling. Nowell flashes a level of on ball and off the dribble shooting that Beasley doesn't.

That doesn't change the fact that Nowell's per 36 minutes this year in his age 21 season are better than anything Beasley put up for Denver. That doesn't mean anything going forward other than I wouldn't be surprised to see Nowell put up Beasley type numbers given a Beasley type role on a team and if it's not for the Wolves I could see us reacting in the same type of way that Denver fans do in regards to Beasley.

[Norseman79]

Simply put, starting Nowell at PG isn't what I would favor. Might it work? Sure, but as stated multiple times he isn't a creator. Now, averaging 5 assists per game if people actually make open shots should be pretty easy. However, having him as a backup score first PG? No problem, especially if he is paired with another combo guard.

[Jedzz]

Nowell's 2020-21 per 36 numbers (age 21 season):

20.7 ppg (49% 2 PT FG - 41% 3 PT FG on 7.5 att/g - 85% FT on 4.1 att/g)
4.5 rbd
2.6 ast
1.4 TO

Beasley's best per 36 numbers for Denver (age 22 season):

17.6 PPG (56% 2 PT FG - 40% 3 PT FG (7.8 att/g) - 82% FT (2 att/g)
3.8 rbd
1.9 ast
1.1 TO
.

Sorry bud. Class is in session. I know you're used to railroading people on this board, but this time it came back to bite you.

Flippant? Flippant was your worthless one line response about per36 backing your stories and I guess telling me not to interject at all. When here I had agreed with some and yet kindly suggested that I think they are not quite as similar as you were suggesting. I described what I've seen that makes them dissimalar. Not numbers. Are you angry now because I responded less than friendly after your flippant dismiss?

If it's a free class you are after...
# You are using a 25 game stretch of this season for Nowell.
# You want us to look at Beasley's 2018-19 season of 81 games.
# You don't think we can find 25 game stretch within Beasley's games up to that point with per36 numbers that compete with this little nugget of time in Nowell's short career? Any decent player has a nice stretch of games somewhere while developing otherwise teams would give up on them.
# I'll let you do the work figuring out the per36, but taking a two minute looksee I'll suggest the 25 consecutive games from Dec 29, 2018 to February 22, 2019.

There are obvious differences and limitations to the comparison, there isn't anyone claiming otherwise.

Sure there are. Plenty suggesting lately he is a young Beasley and suggesting he could replace Beasley if Wolves traded him. But there simply isn't the amount of games of proof of that yet. Any player under 50 games is still a big questionmark as to who they will really end up being over time. Consistent or not, leaders by example or not, bringing all his energy to every game or not such as Beasley does, etc. One is just further along the experience train and we have a better handle on who he is and what he brings. As I've said I hate having to get in the middle of this lunacy talk because I like both players. Imagine my disgust when the team already has both Beasley and Nowell and yet at each draft everyone is staring at more guards like they are hookers in streetside windows in Amsterdam. It's just wasting what you already have and not building a team.

Just like this talk now like yours and others leading to replacing a great contract for Beasley's production with Nowell. When in reality all it really does is give the team more risk being that we don't know for sure how consistent Nowell will be. It also just happens to convenient for dropping Beasley out of the starting issue here and allowing Edwards to be listed as a Starting SG becuase not many here are going to cry about a second round player like Nowell playing off bench forever. However, as you are pointing out, and I've agreed, Nowell needs more floor time during games to become his best version of himself. And yet, you are also incorrectly trying to claim something is already proven about how he'll play from off bench roles, say sixth or seventh man roles. You are basing your whole message on 25 games of this season. That's all, which also conveniently leaves out anything from last year, and what the rest of this season will yet show. I made many orward looking claims like you are making now before he played a single game here even in the Gleague, then after playing in G. But I never took the step of claiming he's better than an already proven player. He has to prove that yet.

They play differently,

No kidding, that's what I told you.

I might even argue that the way that Nowell plays suggests higher upside than Beasley's ceiling. Nowell flashes a level of on ball and off the dribble shooting that Beasley doesn't.

Again, I've already made all these arguments about what he can or should be able to do at this level. But claiming he's going to be better than Beasley just really isn't a worthwhile argument. They just play differently. Beasley can and will attack a rim more fearlessly and with more force, through more defenders. That's if there isn't already someone else doing so. This can net him some FT shots Nowell isn't known for getting because Nowell uses a very skillful floater more often to make buckets around defenders. They just play differently inside. Beasley is more energy aggression and Nowell is more finesse.

My question is why do you want to compare him. Why do you seem to hope he's got a higher ceiling than Beasley or feel a need to project that this early? Do you want to replace Beasely and trade his 20 pts for Nowell's 20 points to save more money or save a starter spot for someone else? Well, again we have to look at what Nowell is actually going to produce if he's just a 17-20 minute player. I know you want to bank a whole lot on his per36 of this seasons 25 games of his. But it just doesn't pass to do so.

That doesn't change the fact that Nowell's per 36 minutes this year in his age 21 season are better than anything Beasley put up for Denver.

25 games of evidence from Nowell this year. It's just not enough to make all these claims. Maybe let him finish the season first.

But if you must sit here claiming junk like that do your diligence and get the per36 of 25 good games stretch from Beasley for a Apples to Apples comparison or just stop making statements your evidence doesn't prove. The 25 games is in Red now for you.

That doesn't mean anything going forward other than I wouldn't be surprised to see Nowell put up Beasley type numbers given a Beasley type role on a team and if it's not for the Wolves I could see us reacting in the same type of way that Denver fans do in regards to Beasley.

Which again you are now just repeating my post points I made already in response. As I said, we are closer on this then you seem to get. I already said they might end up the same playing well for other teams because their first teams didn't respect what they could be enough. Reality is teams just can't keep them all and give them all enough playing time to be their best. Even worse, Nowell as a second round player will get less bias towards gaining more minutes when there is a boatlad of FRP guards standing there demanding minutes. So if Beasley was gone, I fully expect Nowell's minutes to not be starter level for long if ever. This team refused to play him instead of Culver and they would do it again. Just like Edwards will play first, Rubio will play first, Dlo will, the new guard from the 2021 draft will and on forever. At his price point he will get slaved when they need him and stashed when they don't. Just like JMac. We might just have to hope they can get something for him in trade to be honest because that's how this dumb team operates. Imagine the guy that spent months of posting on his upside/ceiling here saying that now. It sucks. But it's the boat the Timberwolves built and keep building.

[TheZachAttack]

Flippant? Flippant was your worthless one line response about per36 backing your stories and I guess telling me not to interject at all. When here I had agreed with some and yet kindly suggested that I think they are not quite as similar as you were suggesting. I described what I've seen that makes them dissimalar. Not numbers. Are you angry now because I responded less than friendly after your flippant dismiss?

If it's a free class you are after...
# You are using a 25 game stretch of this season for Nowell.
# You want us to look at Beasley's 2018-19 season of 81 games.
# You don't think we can find 25 game stretch within Beasley's games up to that point with per36 numbers that compete with this little nugget of time in Nowell's short career? Any decent player has a nice stretch of games somewhere while developing otherwise teams would give up on them.
# I'll let you do the work figuring out the per36, but taking a two minute looksee I'll suggest the 25 consecutive games from Dec 29, 2018 to February 22, 2019.

There are obvious differences and limitations to the comparison, there isn't anyone claiming otherwise.

Sure there are. Plenty suggesting lately he is a young Beasley and suggesting he could replace Beasley if Wolves traded him. But there simply isn't the amount of games of proof of that yet. Any player under 50 games is still a big questionmark as to who they will really end up being over time. Consistent or not, leaders by example or not, bringing all his energy to every game or not such as Beasley does, etc. One is just further along the experience train and we have a better handle on who he is and what he brings. As I've said I hate having to get in the middle of this lunacy talk because I like both players. Imagine my disgust when the team already has both Beasley and Nowell and yet at each draft everyone is staring at more guards like they are hookers in streetside windows in Amsterdam. It's just wasting what you already have and not building a team.

Just like this talk now like yours and others leading to replacing a great contract for Beasley's production with Nowell. When in reality all it really does is give the team more risk being that we don't know for sure how consistent Nowell will be. It also just happens to convenient for dropping Beasley out of the starting issue here and allowing Edwards to be listed as a Starting SG becuase not many here are going to cry about a second round player like Nowell playing off bench forever. However, as you are pointing out, and I've agreed, Nowell needs more floor time during games to become his best version of himself. And yet, you are also incorrectly trying to claim something is already proven about how he'll play from off bench roles, say sixth or seventh man roles. You are basing your whole message on 25 games of this season. That's all, which also conveniently leaves out anything from last year, and what the rest of this season will yet show. I made many orward looking claims like you are making now before he played a single game here even in the Gleague, then after playing in G. But I never took the step of claiming he's better than an already proven player. He has to prove that yet.

They play differently,

No kidding, that's what I told you.

I might even argue that the way that Nowell plays suggests higher upside than Beasley's ceiling. Nowell flashes a level of on ball and off the dribble shooting that Beasley doesn't.

Again, I've already made all these arguments about what he can or should be able to do at this level. But claiming he's going to be better than Beasley just really isn't a worthwhile argument. They just play differently. Beasley can and will attack a rim more fearlessly and with more force, through more defenders. That's if there isn't already someone else doing so. This can net him some FT shots Nowell isn't known for getting because Nowell uses a very skillful floater more often to make buckets around defenders. They just play differently inside. Beasley is more energy aggression and Nowell is more finesse.

My question is why do you want to compare him. Why do you seem to hope he's got a higher ceiling than Beasley or feel a need to project that this early? Do you want to replace Beasely and trade his 20 pts for Nowell's 20 points to save more money or save a starter spot for someone else? Well, again we have to look at what Nowell is actually going to produce if he's just a 17-20 minute player. I know you want to bank a whole lot on his per36 of this seasons 25 games of his. But it just doesn't pass to do so.

That doesn't change the fact that Nowell's per 36 minutes this year in his age 21 season are better than anything Beasley put up for Denver.

25 games of evidence from Nowell this year. It's just not enough to make all these claims. Maybe let him finish the season first.

But if you must sit here claiming junk like that do your diligence and get the per36 of 25 good games stretch from Beasley for a Apples to Apples comparison or just stop making statements your evidence doesn't prove. The 25 games is in Red now for you.

That doesn't mean anything going forward other than I wouldn't be surprised to see Nowell put up Beasley type numbers given a Beasley type role on a team and if it's not for the Wolves I could see us reacting in the same type of way that Denver fans do in regards to Beasley.

Which again you are now just repeating my post points I made already in response. As I said, we are closer on this then you seem to get. I already said they might end up the same playing well for other teams because their first teams didn't respect what they could be enough. Reality is teams just can't keep them all and give them all enough playing time to be their best. Even worse, Nowell as a second round player will get less bias towards gaining more minutes when there is a boatlad of FRP guards standing there demanding minutes. So if Beasley was gone, I fully expect Nowell's minutes to not be starter level for long if ever. This team refused to play him instead of Culver and they would do it again. Just like Edwards will play first, Rubio will play first, Dlo will, the new guard from the 2021 draft will and on forever. At his price point he will get slaved when they need him and stashed when they don't. Just like JMac. We might just have to hope they can get something for him in trade to be honest because that's how this dumb team operates. Imagine the guy that spent months of posting on his upside/ceiling here saying that now. It sucks. But it's the boat the Timberwolves built and keep building.

$9.99 an hour. The rest of my analysis is behind a paywall, but I'm happy to continue to teach you it's clear you need it.

[Jedzz]

$9.99 an hour. The rest of my analysis is behind a paywall, but I'm happy to continue to teach you it's clear you need it.

wow. Thanks for making it perfectly clear what you are and are not bringing to the table here. I gave you the dates for a good comparison in your lousy per36. All you have to do is divide 36 by his average minutes from those games and multiply his stats by that result. Do it for your own knowledge. It might even still come out in your favor, but it will be a closer approximation based on 25 games from each player in the least. Pick another set of 25 games if you want, idc. It's not hard if you truly want to compare a little better. Which you should, because per36 is a giant fantasy on it's best day.


I want to offer a free player story to you. For someone like you who has this great belief system in per36 and doesn't really care about reality and just want to act like an advanced stats stud using the weakest and simpllest form of normalizing possible...this buds for you. Free

Random Player per36 in 2017:
36 FGA for 36FGM 100%, 36 3FGA for 36 3FGM 100%, 108 PPG

Now for the rest of that story because I can borrow it from someone's excellent hard work in 2018.

Forget about Wilt Chamberlain, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan or Kevin Durant. If you’re looking for a scorer, you’ve got to go find Naz Mitrou-Long’s highlights. You’re probably never going to find them, because “3zus of Nazareth” only spent a minute on an NBA hardwood. Still, the shooting guard posted a PER of 133.8 with 100% shooting and an average of 108 points per 36 minutes. He’s the ultimate GOAT.

Nemanja Vukasinovic prefaced that nugget with this caveat in October 2018:
Advanced stats can truly help us get an insight on why teams are better when some players are on or off the court, registering numbers that we wouldn’t be able to notice by simply watching basketball games.

Nonetheless, this stats can be easily taken out of context, as, sometimes, the sample size isn’t big enough to actually be able to tell you something statistically relevant, or even slightly important.

For instance, if you take a look at the numbers some guy post per 36 minutes, you’d think they’re superstars when the truth is that they’re just bottom of the bench kind of guys.
https://fadeawayworld.net/2018/10/18/the-unknown-nba-player-who-averaged-over-100-point-per-36-minutes/

Naz Mitrou-Long on bkref
I forget, you are being lazy and will charge me for you looking.

His per36 in '18:
8.6 FGA for 2.6 FGM 30%, 4.7 3FGA for .9 3FGM 18%, 6.9 PPG
His per36 in '19:
13 FGA for 4.6 FGM 35%, 9.2 3FGA for 1.5 3FGM 17%, 10.7 PPG

What was his actual per game average of actual play in 17,18,19 ?
'17 - 1 MPG, 1 FGA for 1 FGM 100%, 1 3FGA for 1 3FGM 100%, 3 PPG
'18 - 6 MPG,, 1.4 FGA for .4 FGM 30%, .8 3FGA for .1 3FGM 18%, 1.1 PPG
'19 - 9 MPG,, 3.4 FGA for 1.2 FGM 35%, 2.4 3FGA for .4 3FGM 17%, 2.8 PPG

Doesn't reality just suck?


As for Beasley's per36 of the 25 games I suggested for a better comparison in the year you wanted, I'll give you a hint.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F29%2F2018&DateTo=02%2F22%2F2019&PerMode=Per36&PlayerPosition=G
20 ppg on 14 FGA at 54% and 8 3FGA at 47%, 89% FT

I'll let you chase down that great 2FG % stat you prefer yourself.

[winforlose]

$9.99 an hour. The rest of my analysis is behind a paywall, but I'm happy to continue to teach you it's clear you need it.

wow. Thanks for making it perfectly clear what you are and are not bringing to the table here.

Don’t sweat it Jed, Attack is in his name.

[Jedzz]

Nowell is up to 40.2% 3FG this season. That's a good feat for a second year player that was largely stashed and overlooked last season and struggled with threes in the minor minutes he got in year 1. He's attempted up to 8 3s once now. That Pelican's game shooting was Elite. Good for him. Hope he keeps it above 40 for the season and doesn't turn into a streaky player. Would be nice if they tried givein him a few more games of higher shot amounts instead of...others.


This is probably a better place for the Guard's shooting numbers this season instead of the trade thread orignally hijacked for it:

Spoiler:

Dlo all 20 games:
43/40/71 //First 14 games //then a whatever break
41/40/87 //Next 6 games //then a knee scope - stop
43/40/75 //overall (16.3 shots/g)

Beasley
45/39/84 //games while Dlo was still there (16.8 shots)
46/45/90 // Since Dlo stopped playing - (Decrease in shots -.5 (16.3)
46/41/85 //overall

Edwards
38/33/80 //games while Dlo was still there (13.8 shots) best numbers while Dlo is playing with him.(keeping Ants shots lower?)
39/31/80//Since Dlo stopped playing (increase in shots +4.5 (18.3) chucking
39/32/80 //overall

Nowell
50/38/83 //games while Dlo was still there (8.7 shots)
43/42/86 //Since Dlo stopped playing (decrease in shots -.6 (8.1)
46/40/85 //overall

Rubio
35/19/84 //games while Dlo was still there (6 shots)
45/39/82 //Since Dlo stopped playing (increase in shots +2.5 (8.5)
40/31/83 //overall

Culver
46/26/80 //games while Dlo was still there (6.9 shots)
18/00/50 //Since Dlo stopped playing (decrease in shots -1.2 (5.7) Only 3 games.
42/23/60 //overall