Timberwolves 2021-22 Regular Season Discussion Thread

[life_saver]

Read on Twitter

[life_saver]

Read on Twitter

[TheZachAttack]

Wolves Stats Since December 12th (44 games)

______________________________________________

Team Stats

______________________________________________

1. 5th in winning percentage (.660 or a ~54 win pace) & net rating
2. 1st in points per game (119.4), 1st in offensive rating, 1st in 3PM, 1st in pace, 1st in points off of turnovers, 1st in fast break points, 5th in 3pt FG%, and 5th in FTM
3. 13th in points allowed and defensive rating (111.1), 4th in steals, 3rd in blocks, 5th in fewest opponent points in the paint

______________________________________________

Individual Stats

______________________________________________

1. (Of 11) 4 regular rotation players averaging 20+ points per 36 and 9 regular rotation players averaging 15+ points per game***
2. 7 players shooting 35%+ from 3 (Vanderbilt, Naz, and McDaniels are the key rotation players below that)
3. 5 players above 60% TS% (Towns, Prince, Nowell, Naz, and Vanderbilt). 5 additional rotation players between 56.5% (or league average) and 59%.****

______________________________________________

***More detail

______________________________________________

- Nowell averaging 20 points per 36 on 61% 2pt FG%, 39% 3pt FT%, and 78% FT%
- Beasley averaging 18.7ppg on 39.5% from 3 on 12.2att per 36
- Prince averaging 17.5pts per 36 on 40% from 3.
- Naz averaging 18.1ppg per 36 on 61% TS%

______________________________________________

****More detail

______________________________________________

-The Wolves non-shooters in the rotation are all well above average in terms of efficiency between 58.5 & 62.5% (Vanderbilt, Naz, and McDaniels)
-Beverly is the only Wolves regular rotation player who is inefficient but is still an above average floor spacer/3 point shooter

______________________________________________

Takeaways

______________________________________________

I have long said that the difference between the Wolves (of say last year) and teams that follow similar molds to their roster construction in the past (i.e. the Dallas Mavericks of last season or many Houston teams with Harden) isn't the production, efficiency, or output of it's top 3 stars--but instead the production and scoring efficiency from the role players around the Wolves big 3. I have also said that the best and most obvious path to the Wolves succeeding is the Wolves becoming a top 3 or better offense and becoming average to above average (in the top 10 to 15 range on defense). That is, that should be the goal rather than trying to turn the Wolves as currently constructed into an elite defensive team.

The Wolves since their slow start to the season have taken a jump forward using that exact formula. The traditional & advanced numbers back up the idea that the Wolves record is representative of their level of play during this stretch. Interestingly enough, as I have suggested in past posts going back to last season and this offseason the reason for the Wolves taking this step forward isn't really because of the production of its top 3 (Ant has regressed during much of this time period). Towns scoring & efficiency matches his production over the past 2 seasons and D Lo/Ant are averaging ~19 & 21 points respectively on slightly above league average efficiency (or complementary volume scoring to Towns efficiency).

The reason that the Wolves have taken a step forward is that they have been able to develop consistent production, roles, and scoring efficiency from the rest of their rotation (Beverly, Beasley, Nowell, Prince, McDaniels, Vanderbilt, and Naz) on both sides of the floor. This group has combined to average ~68 points on ~58% TS%. Further, the Wolves have been able to develop Nowell & Beasley into a dangerous duo that offers complimentary scoring skillsets off the bench to both space the floor and provide on-ball scoring. In addition, Naz's ability to provide a 60%+ TS% as a backup C when Towns is off the floor has allowed them to run similar sets with their bench unit and have an additional inside scoring presence that they can run offense through.

Prince, McDaniels, Vanderbilt, and Beverly all can either space the floor or have been able to score efficiently in low usage roles playing off of either the Wolves big 3 or Nowell/Beasley/Naz. Lastly, D Lo has shown a willingness as a leader to become a true #3 with the starting unit as well as more aggressive of a scorer stabilizing the bench unit. D Lo is averaging over 8.5assists per 36 (top 5 in the league) and dropped his usage rate to ~24% after being in the 30-33% range for the majority of his career during this stretch.

Ultimately, I think a lot of credit also has to go to Finch who has been able to push the right buttons on playing time between the group above to put players in positions to succeed while also keeping them in rhythm and engaged even if they see their playing time dip in certain games, matchups, or stretches.

______________________________________________

Going Forward

______________________________________________

The Wolves could use to add another true big man to play against certain matchups. However, they have really put themselves in an interesting spot to succeed over the next few years. I think the Wolves have found long-term playoff caliber rotation players that should be on team friendly deals for the next few years. Vanderbilt, Naz, McDaniels, and Nowell are all 21-22 years old & Beasley is just 25.

It will be interesting to think about how the Wolves prioritize Prince, Beasley, and Beverly over the continued development of that younger group. The one downside with some of the Wolves current rotation (and credit to Finch for navigating this) is that they the majority of this group is below average on one side of the ball or has a clear deficiency such as shooting. If the Wolves do upgrade this current group it would be to look for two way role players however those are at a premium.

I still believe that the majority of additional future growth from this group will be internal growth which is a great position to be in. There could be additional opportunities to package say Naz/Bolmaro/picks for a stud role player potentially. However, in the meantime I’m not sure if I’ve seen a Wolves team be able to develop this much young talent that can fill key roles. It’s one thing to have a star it’s another to be able to put players around your stars especially without overpaying.

[winforlose]

Saw this on hoopshype.

“ Jon Krawczynski: The Timberwolves will look at options on the open market for help, sources tell @TheAthletic, possibly a 10-day deal 10 hours ago – via Twitter JonKrawczynski”

[Klomp]

Saw this on hoopshype.

“ Jon Krawczynski: The Timberwolves will look at options on the open market for help, sources tell @TheAthletic, possibly a 10-day deal 10 hours ago – via Twitter JonKrawczynski”

Read on Twitter

[life_saver]

Wolves next 7 games schedule is pretty tough..Bucks (H), Mavs (A), Suns (H), Mavs (H), Bos (A), Raps (A), Den (A).

[Slim Tubby]

Wolves next 7 games schedule is pretty tough..Bucks (H), Mavs (A), Suns (H), Mavs (H), Bos (A), Raps (A), Den (A).

Ugly…but legitimately good teams win 50% of those games. We shall see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Domejandro]

Realistically, Minnesota needs to win both games against Dallas, the game against Denver, and then won 2/4 on the rest.

Phoenix is going to absolutely pummel Minnesota, so it comes down to winning two of the other three.

Unlikely, but that’s what needs to happen.

[Basti]

The Wolves will be win all of the upcoming 7 games and will have 10 straight wins, baby! That's what's gonna happen.

Spoiler:

One can dream, right?

[Neeva]

Realistically, Minnesota needs to win both games against Dallas, the game against Denver, and then won 2/4 on the rest.

Phoenix is going to absolutely pummel Minnesota, so it comes down to winning two of the other three.

Unlikely, but that’s what needs to happen.

What makes you think the suns will “pummel” the wolves that hasn’t been the case any of the games against them this season.

[Domejandro]

Realistically, Minnesota needs to win both games against Dallas, the game against Denver, and then won 2/4 on the rest.

Phoenix is going to absolutely pummel Minnesota, so it comes down to winning two of the other three.

Unlikely, but that’s what needs to happen.

What makes you think the suns will “pummel” the wolves that hasn’t been the case any of the games against them this season.

Because they are objectively better than Minnesota, even without Chris Paul. Could an upset happen? Sure, but Minnesota has already lost the two previous matchups, and Phoenix is far and away the best team in the NBA.

[winforlose]

Realistically, Minnesota needs to win both games against Dallas, the game against Denver, and then won 2/4 on the rest.

Phoenix is going to absolutely pummel Minnesota, so it comes down to winning two of the other three.

Unlikely, but that’s what needs to happen.

What makes you think the suns will “pummel” the wolves that hasn’t been the case any of the games against them this season.

Because they are objectively better than Minnesota, even without Chris Paul. Could an upset happen? Sure, but Minnesota has already lost the two previous matchups, and Phoenix is far and away the best team in the NBA.

Their first win against us was by 3 and was during the time before we got our **** together. Their next win was the back end of a road back to back where Dlo and Bev were both out and V8 was really banged up. I am not saying we are better than Phoenix, I don’t believe we are. I am saying we match up well when healthy and we play a lot better at home. I wouldn’t assume they are going to pummel us, in fact with them having low stakes and our stakes through the roof I expect us to beat them, by sheer will.

[shrink]

I don’t know where to stick this post, but I encourage people to go back 6-7 pages, and read what we thought of this team before the season started.

I’m not saying this to find “gotcha” moments, but it just made me smile to see how much better we are doing now than our pre-season expectations.

[wolves_89]

I am a little surprised that Okogie hasn't gotten any non-garbage minutes since McDaniels went down. I think there could be a lot of benefit in giving Josh 8-12 minutes a night in the next few games against Doncic and Booker.

[minimus]

I hope our young players at some point will learn how NOT to overhelp. They need to trust their teammates. For instance, why Vando helps Edwards who stopped Booker penetration? But I understand that they completely rely on aggressive defensive scheme where their youth and athletic tools allow them to compensate some lack in team defense understanding. Now with MCD out, and V8 not at 100% this problem is evident. We need someone bigger than TP as low men. Today against PHO it was a good test against well coached team, where our weaknesses were exposed.

P.S. I hope that this summer we will add Crowder/Craig type of player: a tough, physical defensive minded combo forward 6'7-6'8" 220-240 lbs with 6'9"-7'0" wingspan.

[winforlose]

Not that I didn’t enjoy the win (because I really did,) but it was one more terrifying example of Naz coming up hurt. Put aside the recent back spasms and last nights leg injury, how many times have we seen him grimace and shake something off. Nothing against Knight, but with 7 games left before the post season isn’t it time to sign a legit 15th man who also happens to be a big (Greg Monroe.) I mean put aside the depth question for a minute, imagine being able to shift Nowell to the PG, Ant to the SG, Prince to SF, and Naz to PF and running a big like Monroe at C. Now we actually have size at every position and much more bench flexibility. Today should be the day we sign our 15th.

[life_saver]

I have liked the evolution in offensive roles of both Prince, Jaden over the season. Both were pretty much doing nothing on offense other than attempting 3 pt shots during first couple of months but as the season progressed doing more things on offense other than just shooting 3's. Both of them started driving more, not hesitating in shooting open midrange jumpers..Prince in particular has been very aggressive on offense recently.

[Klomp]

Watch on YouTube