Rotation for 21-22

[wolves_89]

I think if the Wolves trade for a rotation big it will have a ripple effect that improves multiple positions. Letting McDaniels play most of his minutes at SF would help his game immensely, so adding a rotation caliber PF would improve two positions. Adding a starting center (Turner is probably the only guy that would make sense) could potentially improve three positions with McDaniels shifting to SF, Towns playing 15-20 minutes at PF, and Turner at C. There are so many ways that adding a big makes sense that I hope Gupta can finally accomplish the goal after a year and half of failing to make what should be an obvious move (though the failing can be mostly attributed to Rosas).

[life_saver]

Jaden has been very good over the last few weeks...his ability to defend even the quicker guards is a huge asset. I think he still bit sloppy & clumsy on offense when he is trying to do anything other than Catch & Shoot but he is getting better...he definitely isn't as one-dimensional on offense as I originally thought. Fouling Rate has decreased in recent weeks but it still is probably his biggest issue.

[wolves_89]

Out of the top 20 3-man combinations in terms of minutes this year, there are 7 that have a negative point differential. The common factor in all 7 of those combinations is Malik Beasley. I do have to wonder if Finch is going to cut back Beasley's minutes at some point since he seems to be a major factor dragging down the team.

[Baseline81]

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[Tor_Raps]

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I came onto this board to ask why wasn't Monroe brought back when he played really well for them?

[life_saver]

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I came onto this board to ask why wasn't Monroe brought back when he played really well for them?

Wolves would get into luxury tax if they signe Monroe...I guess that's probably the major reason why they didn't sign him

[Tor_Raps]

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I came onto this board to ask why wasn't Monroe brought back when he played really well for them?

Wolves would get into luxury tax if they signe Monroe...I guess that's probably the major reason why they didn't sign him

We were in the same position with DJ Wilson who we all wanted back too. Sucks.

[winforlose]

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I came onto this board to ask why wasn't Monroe brought back when he played really well for them?

Wolves would get into luxury tax if they signe Monroe...I guess that's probably the major reason why they didn't sign him

This, plus we are probably going to be active at the deadline. An extra roster space goes a long way under these circumstances.

[TheProdigy]

Here are the updated RAPTOR and WAR stats after last night's game.

1. Russell 4.3 RAPTOR / 3.3 WAR
2. Beverley 5.6 RAPTOR / 3.1 WAR
3. Vanderbilt 4.6 RAPTOR / 3.1 WAR
4. Edwards 1.7 RAPTOR / 2.6 WAR
5. Towns 0.2 RAPTOR / 1.6 WAR
6. Okogie 3.1 RAPTOR / 0.9 WAR
7. Knight 3.6 RAPTOR / 0.6 WAR
8. McDaniels -1.5 RAPTOR / 0.6 WAR
9. Nowell -0.4 RAPTOR / 0.4 WAR
10. Bolmaro -4.2 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
11. Layman -4.2 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
12. Wright -26.6 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
13. McLaughlin -5.9 RAPTOR / -0.5 WAR
14. Prince -5.2 RAPTOR / -0.5 WAR
15. Reid -5.2 RAPTOR / -0.8 WAR
16. Beasley -4.8 RAPTOR / -1.1 WAR

[shrink]

Here are the updated RAPTOR and WAR stats after last night's game.

1. Russell 4.3 RAPTOR / 3.3 WAR
2. Beverley 5.6 RAPTOR / 3.1 WAR
3. Vanderbilt 4.6 RAPTOR / 3.1 WAR
4. Edwards 1.7 RAPTOR / 2.6 WAR
5. Towns 0.2 RAPTOR / 1.6 WAR
6. Okogie 3.1 RAPTOR / 0.9 WAR
7. Knight 3.6 RAPTOR / 0.6 WAR
8. McDaniels -1.5 RAPTOR / 0.6 WAR
9. Nowell -0.4 RAPTOR / 0.4 WAR
10. Bolmaro -4.2 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
11. Layman -4.2 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
12. Wright -26.6 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
13. McLaughlin -5.9 RAPTOR / -0.5 WAR
14. Prince -5.2 RAPTOR / -0.5 WAR
15. Reid -5.2 RAPTOR / -0.8 WAR
16. Beasley -4.8 RAPTOR / -1.1 WAR

While I never liked RAPTOR because of its numbers are so dependent on the other nine people on the court, I have to admit I’ve been following it since several Wolves are doing so well. But as an example of how flawed the stat is…

#13 Beverley +4.1 OFF, +1.6 DEF, +5.6 Overall
#21 DRussell +1.9 OFF, +2.4 DEF, +4.3 Overall

The fact that Beverley’s numbers show him stronger on offense, and Russell stronger on defense should make people suspicious.

Incidentally, Jarred Vanderbilt is #19, so I’m going to keep watching that stat!

[TheProdigy]

Here are the updated RAPTOR and WAR stats after last night's game.

1. Russell 4.3 RAPTOR / 3.3 WAR
2. Beverley 5.6 RAPTOR / 3.1 WAR
3. Vanderbilt 4.6 RAPTOR / 3.1 WAR
4. Edwards 1.7 RAPTOR / 2.6 WAR
5. Towns 0.2 RAPTOR / 1.6 WAR
6. Okogie 3.1 RAPTOR / 0.9 WAR
7. Knight 3.6 RAPTOR / 0.6 WAR
8. McDaniels -1.5 RAPTOR / 0.6 WAR
9. Nowell -0.4 RAPTOR / 0.4 WAR
10. Bolmaro -4.2 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
11. Layman -4.2 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
12. Wright -26.6 RAPTOR / -0.1 WAR
13. McLaughlin -5.9 RAPTOR / -0.5 WAR
14. Prince -5.2 RAPTOR / -0.5 WAR
15. Reid -5.2 RAPTOR / -0.8 WAR
16. Beasley -4.8 RAPTOR / -1.1 WAR

While I never liked RAPTOR because of its numbers are so dependent on the other nine people on the court, I have to admit I’ve been following it since several Wolves are doing so well. But as an example of how flawed the stat is…

#13 Beverley +4.1 OFF, +1.6 DEF, +5.6 Overall
#21 DRussell +1.9 OFF, +2.4 DEF, +4.3 Overall

The fact that Beverley’s numbers show him stronger on offense, and Russell stronger on defense should make people suspicious.

Incidentally, Jarred Vanderbilt is #19, so I’m going to keep watching that stat!

No doubt RAPTOR and WAR have limitations. It's so hard to summarize a player's performance and value on a single stat because there are so many variables. Although RAPTOR is supposed to make adjustments based on who is on the floor together, on court synergy is extremely difficult to quantify. That being said, I do think RAPTOR/WAR is one of the best aggregated stats that is publicly available. Are there any other stats that you prefer to follow?

Also, as to your point about DLo being a better defender than Beverley according to RAPTOR, I do think there is noise in these numbers in smaller sample sizes like now with less than half the season completed. Over time I would expect the numbers to normalize with Beverley ahead in defensive RAPTOR. Though I do think there may be something to the idea that DLo picked up defensive communication skills from Draymond while he briefly played for the Warriors. Along with you I've been a huge DLo critic but this would be a game changer for him if he can quarterback a defense. That was arguably KG's strongest skill (DLo is nowhere near the same level as an overall defender though due to athleticism limitations).

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[life_saver]

Finch's trust in Nowell is increasing with every game...he did close it out with Nowell yesterday.

[Klomp]

At what point does this stat become more than just a small sample size?

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[Worm Guts]

At what point does this stat become more than just a small sample size?

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When it shows in our record.

[TheProdigy]

At what point does this stat become more than just a small sample size?

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As Shrink said in the other thread - don't touch the starting line up, fix the bench instead.

[Klomp]

At what point does this stat become more than just a small sample size?

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When it shows in our record.

You mean like how that starting group has a 9-2 record?

[Worm Guts]

At what point does this stat become more than just a small sample size?

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When it shows in our record.

You mean like how that starting group has a 9-2 record?

Like when they’re playing enough so the team has a winning record.

[winforlose]

When it shows in our record.

You mean like how that starting group has a 9-2 record?

Like when they’re playing enough so the team has a winning record.

Also having a winning record against teams with winning records. Last night is a game we should win against a near bottom team. Pull it off against the top of the east and west and now we can talk. Also note worthy that while that group started the game, it didn’t finish it.

[TheZachAttack]

Interesting rotation trends for me
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Internal Development
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Wolves fans haven't seen a lot of internal players improve from end of the bench players into rotation players often yet alone key rotation players, starters, or building blocks. This season we are seeing two players go from end of the rotation type players into key roles and potentially key parts of the Wolves future going forward--Nowell and Vanderbilt. Both players are just 22 years old and are playing at elite levels within roles they are developing into. Nowell especially needs more time to prove that this isn't a hot streak, but both players pass the eye test in a big way. Both players add a key skillset to the Wolves rotation that they don't have and the Wolves haven't even had to give up any assets to add these skillsets to their roster!

Vanderbilt has filled the Wolves needs for a starting 4 that can anchor the Wolves defense, provide rebounding, and play with Towns/Edwards/D Lo. Vanderbilt has said why not me and started playing like a mini-Rodman this season. Vanderbilt is among the league leaders in offensive rebounds and second-chance points generated as well as putting up an all-defense team level campaign as a great on-ball defender even in space against big wings, big time turnover generator, and finisher of possessions with his rebounding. There's a reason that Vanderbilt essentially leads the team in ORTG, DRTG, NTRG, and one of the players in just about every one of the Wolves best 5-man lineups. Vanderbilt plays winning basketball and increases the Wolves margin for error in winning. He does have a unique skillset, but he's clearly a player the Wolves should keep around long-term.

Nowell has finally shown the shot creation and ball-handling abilities he did below the NBA level. Nowell has been playing at a 6th man of the year level since entering the starting lineup and if you watch him play he's breaking the eye test. Nowell, at times, looks like the best player on the floor. Nowell is an above-average NBA level athlete with above-average NBA shotmaking skills. The Wolves have desperately needed to add a player who can both create his own shot and playmake for others on the second unit. In addition, they have needed a 3rd ball-handler for awhile. Nowell's development into a 6th man allows the Wolves to fit that role much better than Beasley, who is more limited as a player. The Wolves ability to get creative and have more options to keep multiple ball-handlers on the floor is exciting now.
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Players who are changing their playstyle in surprising ways leading to winning basketball
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Russell has gotten criticism in the past about his PG skills or lack thereof and his ability to play winning basketball. This season, Russell has struggled from the field but has underlying numbers that are highly associated with the Wolves winning games when he plays. The reason that Russell has still been impacting games in such a positive way is because Russell has made changes to his game this season that should lead to more winning basketball.

Russell's assist & TO numbers are among the top 10 in the league on the year and near the top 5 in terms of limiting turnovers. His usage rate has also dropped significantly this season down from 30-32% to 26% to just 24% over his last 15 games. Those low end usage numbers compare most similarly to PGs like Jrue Holiday, Darius Garlund, Malcolm Brogden, and Fred Van Fleet who in a general sense are known as being initiators but are also being known as the kinds of options that are good to pair with a wing star because they can also be really successful spacing in the half court off of that type of star.

Russell has taken steps forward to be a different type of PG, especially over the last 15 games. Aside from the 24% usage rate, D Lo is 5th in the league in assists and there are only 2 players in the top 20 in assists that have less turnovers. In addition, he continues to play near league-best defense according to the stats. In addition, Russell's shooting appears to be returning to its norms. In the past 15 games (half of his season), his shooting splits are ~37% on 8+ attempts per game. He's still shooting below his career average from 2pt, but he's right there.

Russell has seemingly made some big stylistic changes that have led to outputs that would suggest he's basically been playing like the opposite of what the conception of him is. I thought that I pretty much knew I knew everything to know about the D Lo era for the Wolves. If D Lo is changing his style like the data suggests, there may be some new things to learn just yet.

________________________________

A healthy Wolves rotation for me focused around the following players

PG: D Lo
SG: Beverly
SF: Edwards
PF: Vanderbilt
C: Towns

6th: Nowell
Bench wings: Beasley/McDaniels
Bench Big: Naz

I would like to see the Wolves try and package a combination of Okogie, Naz, Bolmaro, Prince, draft picksand depending on the player Beasley to get a big that has more typical big man skills (lob/pnr/rim protection) and continue to add spacing.

[winforlose]

With JMAC in protocols, Nowell having an ankle injury, and Beasley not being good at ball handling or facilitating, it looks like we might see some Wright at backup PG.