The Official Mike Conley Thread

[shrink]

Fun idea that cap nerds like shrink might enjoy thinking about.

Could we somehow use the "over 38 rule" to our benefit in signing Conley next offseason?

I think it benefits us. For those that don’t know, this rule prevents older players signing a deal longer than two years. The issue was that if a team wanted to bring back a player for a playoff run, they might say, “we know you’re worth $20 mil. If we pay you $10 mil a year for four year, just retire after the first year and you’ll get $40!”

How does it help us with Conley? We’re limited to a two year extension, but so if everyone else. That means that we are less likely to be outbid by a team offering more years than we want. Mike Conley has moved his family to Minnesota, likes it, and reportedly doesn’t want to move again. I think it’s likely we might offer him an extension after the trade deadline, like we did PatBev. The benefit here is that with the Over 38 Rule, if we offer say $8 with a team option for another $8, he might take it, because he knows in free agency he isn’t getting an offer for $10 + $10 + $10 + $10. Conley has earned $250 Mil over his career.

[wolves_89]

I expect Conley to get a one-year extension before the end of the season if he continues to be a productive player. At this point, he likely goes year by year until he retires. I'll be happy if the Wolves could get 2 more decent years out of him (2023-24 and 2024-25), any more than that seems like wishful thinking.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I love Mike a lot but let's wait how he goes until Feb and we can make an offer. He is really professional in his life so hope he can still play at high level for 2 or 3 years.

[NebWolvesFan]

[quote="wolves_89"]I expect Conley to get a one-year extension before the end of the season if he continues to be a productive player. At this point, he likely goes year by year until he retires. I'll be happy if the Wolves could get 2 more decent years out of him (2023-24 and 2024-25), any more than that seems like wishful thinking

I don't see any situation in which Minnesota can afford Conley. If they sign McDaniels, they will be so close to the second apron that Conley will be luxury unless he signs for the minimum. Minnesota needs to pray that Point Ant becomes a thing or someone like NAW or the team's 24 FRP will have to run the team.

[twolves31]

I expect Conley to get a one-year extension before the end of the season if he continues to be a productive player. At this point, he likely goes year by year until he retires. I'll be happy if the Wolves could get 2 more decent years out of him (2023-24 and 2024-25), any more than that seems like wishful thinking

I don't see any situation in which Minnesota can afford Conley. If they sign McDaniels, they will be so close to the second apron that Conley will be luxury unless he signs for the minimum. Minnesota needs to pray that Point Ant becomes a thing or someone like NAW or the team's 24 FRP will have to run the team.

I don't think Ant will primarily run the pg duties anytime soon, we will need a pg going forward. I think there is a good chance you could sign Conley for a lot cheaper maybe 10 million or less after this season. I could see the Wolves kick the tires one last time on Tyus this Summer when he is a free agent, maybe a sign and trade. If San Antonio drafts a starting pg, they may move Tre, he has a pretty reasonable contract but expires two years from now. Of course there is always the chance, the Wolves move on from one of our bigs Kat, Gobert, or Naz next Summer in exchange for a long term solution at pg. I think Conley will have a good to decent season this year, and might have one or two more decent years left in him after that.

[Klomp]

Most of the second apron penalties only come when the team spends multiple seasons above that apron. I could see 2024-25 be a one-time thing, as we continue to assess and adjust to life with the new CBA.

[TimberKat]

I can see him play two more years as 1/2 time or backup here. 8M a year seem reasonable for backup PG. He can fit under 2nd apron unless we want to resign SloMo. Maybe go over 2nd apron for one year.

[wolves_89]

I expect Conley to get a one-year extension before the end of the season if he continues to be a productive player. At this point, he likely goes year by year until he retires. I'll be happy if the Wolves could get 2 more decent years out of him (2023-24 and 2024-25), any more than that seems like wishful thinking.

I don't see any situation in which Minnesota can afford Conley. If they sign McDaniels, they will be so close to the second apron that Conley will be luxury unless he signs for the minimum. Minnesota needs to pray that Point Ant becomes a thing or someone like NAW or the team's 24 FRP will have to run the team.

I think there is a very real possibility that if things go well next season the Wolves could decide to go over the second apron. The roster is well positioned to go into 2023-24 as a second apron team (if their play warrants the expense) with Conley/Anderson being the only potential free agents. If things are going well, signing Conley to a short extension (1 guaranteed season) doesn't seem all that unlikely. For 2024-25, Gobert's deal is an expiring making it much more movable. Once Gobert is moved or has his contract expire the salary cap gets a lot more manageable.

[Klomp]

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[shrink]

Many people said by acquiring Mike Conley, we weren’t building around Ant - we were building around Gobert. While Conley certainly helps activate Gobert more than D’Lo ever did, I am more interested in his positive impact on Ant.

One thing I’ve really liked about Ant has been his eagerness to ask questions and listen. You can see he wants to be the best he can be. In his rookie year, I was pleased to see him seek out Ricky Rubio to answer his questions, and Ant definitely gave Ricky lots of credit for his growth in the second half of his rookie year. When Ricky was traded for Prince, I think Ant looked for new members, and emulated some of the good and bad habits (barking at refs and technicals) of DLo and Towns. I suspect Connelly realized how impressionable he was, and he added Austin Rivers who spoke about his role of mentoring Ant. But when Rivers couldn’t get court time, it probably becomes harder to see him as a peer. Adding Conley is perfect for Ant, both as the truly professional mentor, and as a productive player that can help provide another asset Connelly said is needed to develop a star .. a player to drive winning basketball.

[minimus]

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[KATKlownFeet]

Here's my attempt to spitball a whole bunch of options to next year's starting point guard from somewhat likely to very unlikely:

Plan A: sign Conley on a cheap deal.
Plan B: sign Monte Morris (possibly trade for him first if this improves signability)
Plan C: Elevate Shake to Starter
Plan D: Elevate NAW to starter and move Ant to point guard
Plane E: trade for Cole Anthony and make him starter
Plan F: Resign Kyle and make him starting PG
Plan G: sign Tyus Jones (possibly trade for him first if this improves signability)
Plan H: sign Delon Wright to start
Plan I: sign Cam Payne to start
Plan J: trade for or sign Killian Hayes as make him starter
Plan K: sign and trade for DeJounte Murray (will require one of our Big 4)
Plan L: sign Lonzo Ball (if he is healthy)
Plan M: sign Kyle Lowery on a cheap deal
Plan N: sign John Wall on a cheap deal
Plan O: sign Spagnolo if he makes a big leap  
Plan P: draft Bronny James and get LeBron on a minimum deal to be our defacto point guard

[TimberKat]

Here's my attempt to spitball a whole bunch of options to next year's starting point guard from somewhat likely to very unlikely:

Plan A: sign Conley on a cheap deal.
Plan B: sign Monte Morris (possibly trade for him first if this improves signability)
Plan C: Elevate Shake to Starter
Plan D: Elevate NAW to starter and move Ant to point guard
Plane E: trade for Cole Anthony and make him starter
Plan F: Resign Kyle and make him starting PG
Plan G: sign Tyus Jones (possibly trade for him first if this improves signability)
Plan H: sign Delon Wright to start
Plan I: sign Cam Payne to start
Plan J: trade for or sign Killian Hayes as make him starter
Plan K: sign and trade for DeJounte Murray (will require one of our Big 4)
Plan L: sign Lonzo Ball (if he is healthy)
Plan M: sign Kyle Lowery on a cheap deal
Plan N: sign John Wall on a cheap deal
Plan O: sign Spagnolo if he makes a big leap  
Plan P: draft Bronny James and get LeBron on a minimum deal to be our defacto point guard

I like your plan P but that would require us tanking this season. Bronny is going to be a top 7 pick by Dallas this year Realistically, plan A should buy us 2 more years. JMcD for DeJounte Murray is a good possibility.

[BlacJacMac]

Here's my attempt to spitball a whole bunch of options to next year's starting point guard from somewhat likely to very unlikely:

Plan A: sign Conley on a cheap deal.
Plan B: sign Monte Morris (possibly trade for him first if this improves signability)
Plan C: Elevate Shake to Starter
Plan D: Elevate NAW to starter and move Ant to point guard
Plane E: trade for Cole Anthony and make him starter
Plan F: Resign Kyle and make him starting PG
Plan G: sign Tyus Jones (possibly trade for him first if this improves signability)
Plan H: sign Delon Wright to start
Plan I: sign Cam Payne to start
Plan J: trade for or sign Killian Hayes as make him starter
Plan K: sign and trade for DeJounte Murray (will require one of our Big 4)
Plan L: sign Lonzo Ball (if he is healthy)
Plan M: sign Kyle Lowery on a cheap deal
Plan N: sign John Wall on a cheap deal
Plan O: sign Spagnolo if he makes a big leap  
Plan P: draft Bronny James and get LeBron on a minimum deal to be our defacto point guard

I like your plan P but that would require us tanking this season. Bronny is going to be a top 7 pick by Dallas this year Realistically, plan A should buy us 2 more years. JMcD for DeJounte Murray is a good possibility.

I'd pass on that one.

[Nick K]

I expect Conley to get a one-year extension before the end of the season if he continues to be a productive player. At this point, he likely goes year by year until he retires. I'll be happy if the Wolves could get 2 more decent years out of him (2023-24 and 2024-25), any more than that seems like wishful thinking.

I don't see any situation in which Minnesota can afford Conley. If they sign McDaniels, they will be so close to the second apron that Conley will be luxury unless he signs for the minimum. Minnesota needs to pray that Point Ant becomes a thing or someone like NAW or the team's 24 FRP will have to run the team.

I think there is a very real possibility that if things go well next season the Wolves could decide to go over the second apron. The roster is well positioned to go into 2023-24 as a second apron team (if their play warrants the expense) with Conley/Anderson being the only potential free agents. If things are going well, signing Conley to a short extension (1 guaranteed season) doesn't seem all that unlikely. For 2024-25, Gobert's deal is an expiring making it much more movable. Once Gobert is moved or has his contract expire the salary cap gets a lot more manageable.

You are the first person to mention that and it's a real possibility. I think Conley is THE perfect PG for this team and think he has 3-4 more solid years ahead. The Wolves will find a way to keep him and he loves it here too.

[BlacJacMac]

I don't see any situation in which Minnesota can afford Conley. If they sign McDaniels, they will be so close to the second apron that Conley will be luxury unless he signs for the minimum. Minnesota needs to pray that Point Ant becomes a thing or someone like NAW or the team's 24 FRP will have to run the team.

I think there is a very real possibility that if things go well next season the Wolves could decide to go over the second apron. The roster is well positioned to go into 2023-24 as a second apron team (if their play warrants the expense) with Conley/Anderson being the only potential free agents. If things are going well, signing Conley to a short extension (1 guaranteed season) doesn't seem all that unlikely. For 2024-25, Gobert's deal is an expiring making it much more movable. Once Gobert is moved or has his contract expire the salary cap gets a lot more manageable.

You are the first person to mention that and it's a real possibility. I think Conley is THE perfect PG for this team and think he has 3-4 more solid years ahead. The Wolves will find a way to keep him and he loves it here too.

As a starter?

I can't think of many PGs being effective starters in their Age 40 season.

I'd be overjoyed if he starts this year and then is our primary back-up for the next 2.

[Dewey]

We are one Mike Conley injury away from wishing we had a young point guard waiting in the wings

[minimus]

Against BOS Conley had a few very important defensive possessions. I dont mean steals, Mike was good at tunneling and not fouling.

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Combine this with his shooting and passing, and it leads me to idea that Mike will be very difficult to replace...

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[Klomp]

His sweet spot for playing time has been 28 minutes most of the year, which feels about right