Trade Talk (Part 17): Early Offseason Planning

[younggunsmn]

Part of any Durant trade would require the Suns to get under the second, and maybe even the first, apron. I have been keeping my ear to the ground how the Suns might do that, so I thought I would bring over what I wrote about a Beal buy out

The basics though is that the Suns need Beal to take a pay cut. CBA rules prevent a team from having too great a percentage of their payroll as dead money. However, If they could get him to drop his $110 over the next two years to $70 or so, they could stretch it to five years, $14 mil of dead money, and meet that rule. Beal is owed $54 mil next year, so this would cut a full $40 mil off next year’s payroll. Beal would likely look for a new teams that would give him $20 a year for two seasons to make him whole, but he might not find one with the cap space, so he might just decline the buyout.

So my general view is that while a Beal buy out is possible according to CBA rules, and the Suns would want to do it to fix their books, it’s unlikely Beal is going to accept a buy out without getting more of his money, which is legally impossible.

Getting a player to accept giving back even 10% of their salary in a buyout is quite rare.
Beal giving back 40 million is not in the realm of reality.

2nd Apron is not going to heavily restrict the Suns in moving Durant.
They just are not going to be able to aggregate him with anyone else, and they are going to have to take back less salary.

The tricky CBA and apron maneuvering is largely going to be a problem for the team trading FOR Durant, which is where 3rd and 4th teams come in.

[life_saver]

Can any cap expert say if its possible for Randle to opt-in his player option and then Wolves extend his contract in this off-season for another 3-4 years ? If so, what would be the maximum Wolves can offer Randle as part of the extension ?

[ReggiesKnicks]

Can any cap expert say if its possible for Randle to opt-in his player option and then Wolves extend his contract in this off-season for another 3-4 years ? If so, what would be the maximum Wolves can offer Randle as part of the extension ?

Of course Minnesota could do this. Extensions max out at 140% of the final year of the current contract.

[wolves_89]

As the playoffs go on I'm becoming more and more convinced that Rudy is going to be on the trade block this offseason. I think if Connelly can find a deal where he gets back a defensive center who fits (a guy capable of being the 7th-8th guy in the rotation), future value (a pick or young player with some upside), and some salary savings he'll pull the trigger.

[shrink]

2nd Apron is not going to heavily restrict the Suns in moving Durant.
They just are not going to be able to aggregate him with anyone else, and they are going to have to take back less salary.

Being over the second apron prevents them from taking back a sign-and-trade player as part of the Durant package. For example, if MIN made an offer, if couldn’t include Naz Reid, NAW, or potentially Julius Randle.

[shrink]

Can any cap expert say if its possible for Randle to opt-in his player option and then Wolves extend his contract in this off-season for another 3-4 years ? If so, what would be the maximum Wolves can offer Randle as part of the extension ?

Of course Minnesota could do this. Extensions max out at 140% of the final year of the current contract.

Correct, if Randle opts out of his contract, MIN can use Bird rights to sign him to a new deal for whatever they can agree to.

If Randle picks up his option, his salary next year would be $30.9. The first year of an extension can be up to 40%, or $43 mil.

A key part is that for either new deal, raises (OR decreases!) can be 8% per year.

Both an extension or an opt in would allow for Randle to be on a contract that could be up to five years long (5 or 1+4), but Connelly will certainly look for something shorter. Before the last CBA, only max players could get 5 year extensions, non-max could only get four, but with the new changes, it allowed Connelly to lock up Jaden for five years.

[life_saver]

Can any cap expert say if its possible for Randle to opt-in his player option and then Wolves extend his contract in this off-season for another 3-4 years ? If so, what would be the maximum Wolves can offer Randle as part of the extension ?

Of course Minnesota could do this. Extensions max out at 140% of the final year of the current contract.

Correct, if Randle opts out of his contract, MIN can use Bird rights to sign him for whatever they can agree to, up to that 140% figure ($46.3 mil max) which is more than we would spend.

If Randle picks up his option, his salary next year would be $30.9. One key part here is that we would be using Bird rights to sign him, so it would limit maximum raises (or decreases!) to 8% per year. So his max extension number for 26-27 would be between $28.4 and $33.4. That same 8% would apply to a new extension if he doesn’t pick up his player option.

Both an extension or an opt in would allow for Randle to be on a contract that could be up to five years long (5 or 1+4), but Connelly will certainly look for something shorter. Before the last CBA, only max players could get 5 year extensions, non-max could only get four, but with the new changes, it allowed Connelly to lock up Jaden for five years.

At this rate, I feel like chances of Randle picking up his option is pretty low. He did already take a discounted deal when he signed a contract with Knicks in 2021...I doubt he'd pick up next year's option at $30M when his next contract value will easily be above that

[shrink]

As the playoffs go on I'm becoming more and more convinced that Rudy is going to be on the trade block this offseason. I think if Connelly can find a deal where he gets back a defensive center who fits (a guy capable of being the 7th-8th guy in the rotation), future value (a pick or young player with some upside), and some salary savings he'll pull the trigger.

It’s hard for me to judge how Connelly feels about Gobert.

He is clearly a fan, or he wouldn’t have been willing to pay so much to bring him here. Gobert rewarded him with a DPOY season, and helping the Wolves get to the Western Conference Finals, almost exclusively by their #1 team defense. This year, it looks like another WCF, and possibly more, though less based on Rudy (except maybe the final month). He gave 32-year old Rudy a 2+1 extension too, though part of his incentive was likely to get him to drop an expensive player option and take a pay cut. If the plan was to move Rudy and for Naz to become our next center, I think Naz’ play this year has dampened thoughts about that future.

That said, I’m not going to be shocked if Connelly trades Gobert. I really have a hard time predicting what course he will take with the team. Let’s see if MIN continues to advance, to see if ownership is willing to pay to run it back, as much as possible.

[wolves_89]

As the playoffs go on I'm becoming more and more convinced that Rudy is going to be on the trade block this offseason. I think if Connelly can find a deal where he gets back a defensive center who fits (a guy capable of being the 7th-8th guy in the rotation), future value (a pick or young player with some upside), and some salary savings he'll pull the trigger.

It’s hard for me to judge how Connelly feels about Gobert.

He is clearly a fan, or he wouldn’t have been willing to pay so much to bring him here. Gobert rewarded him with a DPOY season, and helping the Wolves get to the Western Conference Finals, almost exclusively by their #1 team defense. This year, it looks like another WCF, and possibly more, though less based on Rudy (except maybe the final month). He gave 32-year old Rudy a 2+1 extension too, though part of his incentive was likely to get him to drop an expensive player option and take a pay cut. If the plan was to move Rudy and for Naz to become our next center, I think Naz’ play this year has dampened thoughts about that future.

That said, I’m not going to be shocked if Connelly trades Gobert. I really have a hard time predicting what course he will take with the team. Let’s see if MIN continues to advance, to see if ownership is willing to pay to run it back, as much as possible.

I think the Wolves as a team have been moving away from Rudy's style of play for a while and have now gotten to the point where most of the roster is now better suited to high pace, movement, and switchability. Even Julius has adapted his game to better fit that style of play. The other reason to look at moving Gobert now is that he still has value, something that may not be true in a year or two. I'm not saying it definitely will happen, but I think the likelihood has gone up significantly.

[shrink]

As the playoffs go on I'm becoming more and more convinced that Rudy is going to be on the trade block this offseason. I think if Connelly can find a deal where he gets back a defensive center who fits (a guy capable of being the 7th-8th guy in the rotation), future value (a pick or young player with some upside), and some salary savings he'll pull the trigger.

It’s hard for me to judge how Connelly feels about Gobert.

He is clearly a fan, or he wouldn’t have been willing to pay so much to bring him here. Gobert rewarded him with a DPOY season, and helping the Wolves get to the Western Conference Finals, almost exclusively by their #1 team defense. This year, it looks like another WCF, and possibly more, though less based on Rudy (except maybe the final month). He gave 32-year old Rudy a 2+1 extension too, though part of his incentive was likely to get him to drop an expensive player option and take a pay cut. If the plan was to move Rudy and for Naz to become our next center, I think Naz’ play this year has dampened thoughts about that future.

That said, I’m not going to be shocked if Connelly trades Gobert. I really have a hard time predicting what course he will take with the team. Let’s see if MIN continues to advance, to see if ownership is willing to pay to run it back, as much as possible.

I think the Wolves as a team have been moving away from Rudy's style of play for a while and have now gotten to the point where most of the roster is now better suited to high pace, movement, and switchability. Even Julius has adapted his game to better fit that style of play. The other reason to look at moving Gobert now is that he still has value, something that may not be true in a year or two. I'm not saying it definitely will happen, but I think the likelihood has gone up significantly.

Great post. The only other thing I would consider is that to get out of the Western Conference in the future, we’re going to need to be able to beat OKC and HOU. Can we do it without someone like Gobert?

If Naz could defend better, I’d be much more willing to trade Rudy.

[wolves_89]

It’s hard for me to judge how Connelly feels about Gobert.

He is clearly a fan, or he wouldn’t have been willing to pay so much to bring him here. Gobert rewarded him with a DPOY season, and helping the Wolves get to the Western Conference Finals, almost exclusively by their #1 team defense. This year, it looks like another WCF, and possibly more, though less based on Rudy (except maybe the final month). He gave 32-year old Rudy a 2+1 extension too, though part of his incentive was likely to get him to drop an expensive player option and take a pay cut. If the plan was to move Rudy and for Naz to become our next center, I think Naz’ play this year has dampened thoughts about that future.

That said, I’m not going to be shocked if Connelly trades Gobert. I really have a hard time predicting what course he will take with the team. Let’s see if MIN continues to advance, to see if ownership is willing to pay to run it back, as much as possible.

I think the Wolves as a team have been moving away from Rudy's style of play for a while and have now gotten to the point where most of the roster is now better suited to high pace, movement, and switchability. Even Julius has adapted his game to better fit that style of play. The other reason to look at moving Gobert now is that he still has value, something that may not be true in a year or two. I'm not saying it definitely will happen, but I think the likelihood has gone up significantly.

Great post. The only other thing I would consider is that to get out of the Western Conference in the future, we’re going to need to be able to beat OKC and HOU. Can we do it without someone like Gobert?

If Naz could defend better, I’d be much more willing to trade Rudy.

If Rudy is moved the Wolves would have to make sure to get a center to provide defense, size, and rebounding. I think we'd be fine with a rim protecting center off the bench who could provide 70-80% of what Rudy does at 40-60% of the salary (guys like Daniel Gafford, Jacob Poeltl, Steven Adams, or Nic Claxton).

The other benefit of moving Rudy would be opening up a starting spot for Naz while retaining Julius.

[BlacJacMac]

I think the Wolves as a team have been moving away from Rudy's style of play for a while and have now gotten to the point where most of the roster is now better suited to high pace, movement, and switchability. Even Julius has adapted his game to better fit that style of play. The other reason to look at moving Gobert now is that he still has value, something that may not be true in a year or two. I'm not saying it definitely will happen, but I think the likelihood has gone up significantly.

Great post. The only other thing I would consider is that to get out of the Western Conference in the future, we’re going to need to be able to beat OKC and HOU. Can we do it without someone like Gobert?

If Naz could defend better, I’d be much more willing to trade Rudy.

If Rudy is moved the Wolves would have to make sure to get a center to provide defense, size, and rebounding. I think we'd be fine with a rim protecting center off the bench who could provide 70-80% of what Rudy does at 40-60% of the salary (guys like Daniel Gafford, Jacob Poeltl, Steven Adams, or Nic Claxton).

The other benefit of moving Rudy would be opening up a starting spot for Naz while retaining Julius.

I don't think you can start Naz and Randle. Not nearly enough defense or rebounding.

[cmoss84]

Bold predictions for the offseason:

Giannis to OKC
KD (and Ware) to MN
Rudy to Pho
Randle to Mia
Zion to Brooklyn
Lavine to Det

Jimmy, Lauri, and Trae stay put.

[Neeva]

You think Houston strikes completely out or stays put?
I really hope Flagg goes east. Something will smell fishy if he ends up in Dallas.

[younggunsmn]

2nd Apron is not going to heavily restrict the Suns in moving Durant.
They just are not going to be able to aggregate him with anyone else, and they are going to have to take back less salary.

Being over the second apron prevents them from taking back a sign-and-trade player as part of the Durant package. For example, if MIN made an offer, if couldn’t include Naz Reid, NAW, or potentially Julius Randle.

Why on earth would they want any of that for Kevin Freaking Durant?
So they can win 38 games instead of 36 and still have a horrible cap situation?

[minimus]

Will Brooklyn waste another year with tanking or spend their money now?

[minimus]

Is it feasible to sign Ty Jerome for 60/4 mil type of contract by giving him starting PG role?

Are you kidding have you seen him against the Pacers? If his shot isnt falling he is USELESS, no defense and slow.

EXACTLY! He was red hot before 2nd round, which basically set his value out of MLE range. Right now, considering his struggles (not sure if it only his struggles and not team struggles) I would give him full MLE contract and replace all NAW minutes next season.

[minimus]

I think the Wolves as a team have been moving away from Rudy's style of play for a while and have now gotten to the point where most of the roster is now better suited to high pace, movement, and switchability. Even Julius has adapted his game to better fit that style of play. The other reason to look at moving Gobert now is that he still has value, something that may not be true in a year or two. I'm not saying it definitely will happen, but I think the likelihood has gone up significantly.

Great post. The only other thing I would consider is that to get out of the Western Conference in the future, we’re going to need to be able to beat OKC and HOU. Can we do it without someone like Gobert?

If Naz could defend better, I’d be much more willing to trade Rudy.

If Rudy is moved the Wolves would have to make sure to get a center to provide defense, size, and rebounding. I think we'd be fine with a rim protecting center off the bench who could provide 70-80% of what Rudy does at 40-60% of the salary (guys like Daniel Gafford, Jacob Poeltl, Steven Adams, or Nic Claxton).

The other benefit of moving Rudy would be opening up a starting spot for Naz while retaining Julius.

I wish TC can find the way to improve С position by finding someone like Hartenstein (high IQ, high effort defensive minded full-sized bigman with good hands). The problem? Hartenstein will make 28,5 mil in next two seasons, Rudy will make 35, 36.5 and 38mil in next three seasons. I just dont know what to expect from bigman market this season. How much will Naz Reid, DayRon Sharpe ask?

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Trading Rudy can make sense. But replacing him with NAZ and keeping Randle will be a recipe for disaster., not enough defense. Plus Mike is getting old and we need a starter PG.

[Rookie-Mistake]

The only trade I want to see is Dyson Daniels in. Surely we can get him.

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