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Value of upcoming MN FA

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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#101 » by BlacJacMac » Wed May 7, 2025 7:28 pm

minimus wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
minimus wrote:
Well, I think the question with NAW has always been whether he can be a bit more than 3&D, I mean can he share a bit workload as secondary ballhandler? Or can he provide some rim pressure or add some mid range game? I have no problem to give NAW a full MLE regardless of his inconsistency as 3pt shooter, if he is truly a comboguard like FVV next to Lowry in TOR. But MLE for pure 3&D is a bit of luxury for MIN, because Clark fills that role perfectly playing for minimum.


I think we've seen that he can not. He gets into trouble when he creates for himself and he doesn't do more than make rudimentary passes.

Combine that with his absolute inability to shoot in the postseason, and not only would I be against giving him the taxpayer MLE, I don't want him back at all next year.


Yeah, I agree with you... But In the second half of the season, there was a stretch where NAW looked solid as a playmaker off the bench. I agree that his 3PT shooting slump has tanked his offensive value, but I still think he could be a better fit next to someone like Dillingham, rather than playing alongside DDV or Conley like he is now. If TC can somehow convince Conley to retire, I’d honestly be more than happy to promote NAW into a defensive-minded guard role next to Dillingham. That pairing has a clearer balance between creation and on-ball defense. I also believe there’s real value in keeping young core guys who match the team’s identity. In that sense, keeping Reid, DDV, and NAW could give MIN even more cohesion and chemistry going forward.


I'd rather see what Clark and TSJ can do given NAW's minutes.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#102 » by Klomp » Wed May 7, 2025 7:33 pm

I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#103 » by Klomp » Wed May 7, 2025 7:34 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:I'd rather see what Clark and TSJ can do given NAW's minutes.

At this point, I'd expect that as the outcome, barring any other substantial move.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#104 » by BlacJacMac » Wed May 7, 2025 7:36 pm

NAW with MIN:

Regular Season: 43/38/77
Postseason: 36/30/91 - and sinking fast.

And its not a small sample size. 27 Playoff Games. And he's not even inconsistent. He hasn't shot the 3 well since we lost to DEN in 2022.

2022-23, DEN: 43/40
2023-24, PHO: 42/32
2023-24, DEN: 36/32
2023-24, DAL: 29/19
2024-25, LAL: 27/22
2024-25 GSW: 00/00

He'll be 27 when next season starts. He appears to have maxed out his potential and it appears his ceiling is as a very good regular season 3&D player.

Time to move on.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#105 » by BlacJacMac » Wed May 7, 2025 7:38 pm

Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.


100%.

Naz is "instant offense" off the bench. But he doesn't provide nearly enough to be a starter if he's not scoring at a good clip. He's a guy that should get 30 minutes if his shot is falling and 10-15 if it isn't.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#106 » by minimus » Wed May 7, 2025 7:39 pm

Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.


I hope TC will draft two players who can be developed to be part of frontcourt.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#107 » by BlacJacMac » Wed May 7, 2025 7:41 pm

minimus wrote:
Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.


I hope TC will draft two players who can be developed to be part of frontcourt.


I do too. But I hope we're not relying on hitting homeruns with the 17th and 31st picks. I'll admit I get excited about the upside of most of the prospects that you post about on the Denver thread, but we have to remember that most guys don't come anywhere near their ceilings.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#108 » by minimus » Thu May 8, 2025 7:17 am

BlacJacMac wrote:
minimus wrote:
Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.


I hope TC will draft two players who can be developed to be part of frontcourt.


I do too. But I hope we're not relying on hitting homeruns with the 17th and 31st picks. I'll admit I get excited about the upside of most of the prospects that you post about on the Denver thread, but we have to remember that most guys don't come anywhere near their ceilings.


This really makes me think about how important TC’s (or rather, MIN’s front office) decision-making will be this offseason.

It’s highly unlikely, but there’s a real opportunity to hit a massive jackpot:
- two draft picks in range to make a potential steal
- three new contracts to negotiate (Reid, Randle, NAW) — or turn into trade value
- DDV on a team-friendly deal
- Rob Dillingham and Jaylen Clark waiting in the development queue

I say it’s unlikely to hit the jackpot because plenty of other teams are in the mix, but the pieces are there. It all comes down to execution.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#109 » by minimus » Thu May 8, 2025 7:52 am

BlacJacMac wrote:
Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.


100%.

Naz is "instant offense" off the bench. But he doesn't provide nearly enough to be a starter if he's not scoring at a good clip. He's a guy that should get 30 minutes if his shot is falling and 10-15 if it isn't.


One variable I really wish I had more clarity on before making any Naz Reid–related decisions is Rob Dillingham. Let me explain.

Here was my checklist for Rob in his rookie season:
- Stay healthy – Not done (had multiple minor injuries throughout the season)
- Improve his body – Not done (see above)
- Buy into defensive identity – In progress, but he has shown effort, quickness, and willingness to compete
- Show signs of playmaking – Not done (Finch recently said Rob needs to involve his teammates more)
- Show shot creation and scoring ability – In progress, and he’s shown a lot of positive flashes
- Finish at the rim – In progress, also some encouraging signs
- Hit open 3s – In progress, but he regressed a lot in the second half of the season
- Play off the ball – Still unclear. I honestly don’t remember him coming off screens much. But to be fair, this might be a system-wide issue — neither DDV, Reid, nor Edwards consistently operate as off-ball scorers like Malik Beasley used to. Though to be fair, both DDV and Reid did show flashes of it during the regular season.

So, at this point, I can only guess what kind of role Rob will be given next season — and what direction the staff wants to take his development.

Here are some possible paths:
- Instant bench scorer? Then his role might overlap with Naz Reid’s. That could actually open minutes for someone like Jaylen Clark as a defensive 3&D complement next to Rob, who would carry the load as a ballhandler and creator.

- Off-ball scorer? That would be similar to Malik Beasley’s role — but it requires a true facilitator next to Rob.
The ideal archetype for a second unit could be something like McLaughlin–Nowell–Beasley: ballhandler / slasher–midrange scorer / high-volume shooter.
That’s what DDV was supposed to be as a backup combo guard — but it hasn’t worked, mostly because MIN doesn’t have a quality backup PG.

- Backup PG? Then it becomes easier for DDV to slide into the high-volume off-ball shooter role.

The truth is, Rob’s development path is still unclear from the outside — but I really hope that within the front office and coaching staff, there’s a working hypothesis about what role he’s being groomed for in Year 2.

Which brings me back to Naz Reid.

One thing I find concerning is the potential combination of:
- Reid’s inconsistent defense and tendency to commit unnecessary fouls (he is always in foul trouble in playoffs)
- Rob giving up size on almost every matchup (requires and lot of proactive team actions, such as pre-switching, communications and defensive decision making)

That combo could be tough to hide defensively — unless both Rob and Naz are putting up 20+ PPG and making the offense so explosive that you just live with the tradeoffs.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#110 » by shrink » Thu May 8, 2025 12:43 pm

minimus wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:I do too. But I hope we're not relying on hitting homeruns with the 17th and 31st picks. I'll admit I get excited about the upside of most of the prospects that you post about on the Denver thread, but we have to remember that most guys don't come anywhere near their ceilings.


This really makes me think about how important TC’s (or rather, MIN’s front office) decision-making will be this offseason.

It’s highly unlikely, but there’s a real opportunity to hit a massive jackpot:
- two draft picks in range to make a potential steal
- three new contracts to negotiate (Reid, Randle, NAW) — or turn into trade value
- Rob Dillingham and Jaylen Clark waiting in the development queue

I say it’s unlikely to hit the jackpot because plenty of other teams are in the mix, but the pieces are there. It all comes down to execution.

All while navigating any owner-required stipulations about cutting payroll under the second apron, or maybe under the lux.

I’ve watched a lot of Minnesota off-seasons over the years, and this may be one of the most complicated ever. We are all hoping the Wolves defeat GSW and make the Western Conference Finals, simply for basketball reasons. For me, making the WCF again means ownership will be more likely to spend to bring back as many players as possible, and simplify Connelly’s off-season. Losing this series is about more than Finch losing his job (as many posters want); it may result in emboldening ownership to do a thorough cutting of players and payroll, a step back to try a new iteration of the Wolves.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#111 » by shrink » Thu May 8, 2025 12:55 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.

100%.

Naz is "instant offense" off the bench. But he doesn't provide nearly enough to be a starter if he's not scoring at a good clip. He's a guy that should get 30 minutes if his shot is falling and 10-15 if it isn't.

I love hearing this realistic view of what Naz Reid is. This is what a “real GM” would assess, and likely why he might have been included in the Kevin Durant offer at the deadline. Naz is a great story, beloved by most MIN fans, and when he is making his three’s, he’s a joy to watch. But there are two sides to a basketball court.

Naz has shown us that he can make incredible leaps in his game in the off-season, and I would never bet against him improving his defense. That said, finding a fair number for a new deal, before he fixes this problem, is a tough negotiation for a GM.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#112 » by BlacJacMac » Thu May 8, 2025 4:26 pm

shrink wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.

100%.

Naz is "instant offense" off the bench. But he doesn't provide nearly enough to be a starter if he's not scoring at a good clip. He's a guy that should get 30 minutes if his shot is falling and 10-15 if it isn't.

I love hearing this realistic view of what Naz Reid is. This is what a “real GM” would assess, and likely why he might have been included in the Kevin Durant offer at the deadline. Naz is a great story, beloved by most MIN fans, and when he is making his three’s, he’s a joy to watch. But there are two sides to a basketball court.

Naz has shown us that he can make incredible leaps in his game in the off-season, and I would never bet against him improving his defense. That said, finding a fair number for a new deal, before he fixes this problem, is a tough negotiation for a GM.


What's concerning to me is this is the first year that Naz really stagnated. He didn't add anything new this offseason. He didn't improve his defense, rebounding or decision making. At 26 we might be seeing close to the finished version of Naz. I'm sure he'll get better at a few things around the periphery as he continues to mature and learn, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's done making leaps.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#113 » by minimus » Thu May 8, 2025 8:06 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:What's concerning to me is this is the first year that Naz really stagnated. He didn't add anything new this offseason. He didn't improve his defense, rebounding or decision making. At 26 we might be seeing close to the finished version of Naz. I'm sure he'll get better at a few things around the periphery as he continues to mature and learn, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's done making leaps.


IMO he has improved defensively. Especially considering bigger role in defense after Towns trade. He also has shown signs of being capable five out bigman when both Gobert and Randle were out. I think his role is limiting him, just look at McDaniels who looked completely different at PF, same thing might happen to Reid. I mean right now it is not about wow things like shooting 50% from 3PT, it might more about little things.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#114 » by Klomp » Thu May 8, 2025 8:12 pm

minimus wrote:I think his role is limiting him, just look at McDaniels who looked completely different at PF, same thing might happen to Reid.

This is actually one thing that would give me pause about the "not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet" that I mentioned earlier. I actually think Jaden "looked completely different at PF" because he was playing more often in lineups next to Naz. There's something about that pairing that just works.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#115 » by m2002brian » Thu May 8, 2025 8:34 pm

Klomp wrote:
minimus wrote:I think his role is limiting him, just look at McDaniels who looked completely different at PF, same thing might happen to Reid.

This is actually one thing that would give me pause about the "not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet" that I mentioned earlier. I actually think Jaden "looked completely different at PF" because he was playing more often in lineups next to Naz. There's something about that pairing that just works.


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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#116 » by younggunsmn » Thu May 8, 2025 8:42 pm

Klomp wrote:I want Naz back, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as a starter yet.

I get why people want him to start, but I don't know if it's in the team's best interest. I put his role like a Lou Williams, a Jamal Crawford, a Jordan Clarkson. His game isn't well-rounded enough to be vaulted into a second or third option in the starting lineup, which is what would happen here if he was inserted into the starting lineup next year. He would be the second or third option behind Ant and possibly Jaden. I don't think that's enough offensive firepower.

That's the importance of holding on to Randle, or replacing him with another form of offensive firepower. This is where I still think a Kevin Durant option carries some credibility, as long as McDaniels and Reid aren't sacrificed in the process. Practically anyone else could be fair game theoretically.


If Naz isn't ready to start then neither is Julius Randle.
Randle isn't any better than Naz.
Give Naz Randle's usage and you get similiar numbers with better effiiciency and lower assists, with the same defense and rebounding but better rim protection.
In fact Naz will be a better value salary wise because he won't demand the level of compensation Randle will because he hasn't ever had that kind of usage.

The long term future of the PF position may actually be Jaden McDaniels, with DDV slid over to the 3 and an actual player or two under 37 with PG skills brought in to play the position. Opens up minutes for TSJ and Clark too.

Draft Yaxel Lendeborg as a beefier switchable understudy at the 4.
Randle can either walk or get traded and Naz can either stay or be traded for a PG if we can land one.
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#117 » by life_saver » Thu May 8, 2025 8:52 pm

NAW has the lowest 3 pt shooting % in playoffs over last 2 seasons (min 75 attempts) at 27%...these are bottom 5 - NAW, Tatum, KCP, Chet, Jaylen Brown.
Kinda surprising to see both Tatum & Brown there
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#118 » by cmoss84 » Fri May 9, 2025 9:15 pm

Miami sounds like they are going to tear it down. Would you trade Randle for Rozier, if we also got Ware in the deal?
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#119 » by BlacJacMac » Fri May 9, 2025 9:33 pm

cmoss84 wrote:Miami sounds like they are going to tear it down. Would you trade Randle for Rozier, if we also got Ware in the deal?


I'm a huge Ware fan, but if they're tearing it down, why would they want 31 year-old Randle?

And wouldn't Ware be one of the main pieces they build around?
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Re: Value of upcoming MN FA 

Post#120 » by cmoss84 » Fri May 9, 2025 10:09 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
cmoss84 wrote:Miami sounds like they are going to tear it down. Would you trade Randle for Rozier, if we also got Ware in the deal?


I'm a huge Ware fan, but if they're tearing it down, why would they want 31 year-old Randle?

And wouldn't Ware be one of the main pieces they build around?


Tearing it down is probably a bad choice of words. They would obviously have to buy in on Randle (and offer an extension?). Would give them a core of Bam/Randle/Wiggins/Hero. Who knows.
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