shrink wrote:ifrosty13 wrote:shrink wrote:Good post overall, and I wanted to talk about this specifically.
Personally, I think Olynyk is about the same value as Waiters plus 1st, so this swap would be of the same value as the previous trade, which Thibs would decline.
However, I still think this is the right track. Thibs reportedly wanted another pick to help dispose of Waiters deal. If Waiters is gone, then the second pick should be gone too. I like this for MIA with just the 2019 pick, because it’s almost certainly a late pick with Jimmy there the rest of the season, but nobody knows where that 2023 pick would be, so it mitigates their risk.
As a fan, I don’t like that package. Dieng is still here, and the return is mainly just decent players without Star upside. Realistically though, I think Thibs would take Richardson, Olynyk, and a 2019 MIA 1st.
I guess I'd be fine with the first since Miami doesn't really value them, probably have the pick lottery protected just in case something horrific happens and I think most people in Miami would be Ok with this deal. I think for us to take Dieng either James Johnson or Dion would have to be included for Miami to be mildly interested (and I actually think Dieng is a good player that would fit well in Miami)
I think protections are fair or request, but since MIA owes it’s 2021 pick, the Stepian Rule would prevent normal protections (like MIA 2019 Top 14 Protected, else MIA 2020, Top 14 Protected, else ...).
We’d have to see them negotiate through less options, such as ..
a. MIA 2019 Top 14 Protected, else 2023 MIA 1st (plus whatever protections - can’t go out past 7 years)
b. MIA 2019 Top 14 Protected, else becomes 2022 2nd. 2024 2nd, bottom 56-60 protected
c. MIA 2019 Top 14 Protected, else the obligation to MIN is extinguished.
Waiting until 2023 is bad for both sides. MIA faces more uncertainty (unlike 2019 when they are pretty confident the pick will be in the 20’s), and for MIN, while this is more valuable, waiting nearly 5 years for the pick reduces it’s current value, especially to Thibs who will be long-forgotten by the time it conveys. It might be smarter to include some other type of small incentive (cash?) than to have this turn into a 2023 pick.
Agreed. I was thinking that if Miami ends up in the lottery then it could turn into 2 unprotected second rounders, but yeah, option a is probably not likely.
). I wish nothing but the best for you guys.
