Official Anthony Edwards Thread

[Klomp]

Here's where I struggle most to agree with some fans.

We are so quick to label guys as busts and want to cast them aside that we just don't ever find enough talent to assemble a good team. It's possible to keep someone drafted No. 1 as a core member of this team even if another player from his draft class has a better career. It's fine to accept that someone won't be a superstar without wanting to get rid of them. Capitalizing on trade value I understand, but at some point we need to start assembling a group that sticks around, even if they don't reach the perceived value of what a No. X pick should be.

I think of a guy like Jamal Crawford. I know he never fully realized the top-end potential some thought he had. But he still had a long, successful career. Same with Tyson Chandler. Teams like Chicago of that era or us have quickly given up on these guys because they don't reach their star potential, but these are the kinds of guys good teams add to bolster their depth.

Here, guys like Ricky Rubio, Gorgui Dieng and others are so quickly cast aside both by fans and eventually the team. It's no wonder we never seem to be able to put together a roster that's worthy of making a deep run.

[Nick K]

19ys old with that talent?
According to me In a team with no PO aspiration, in a year of tank to grab #1 #2 or #3 every single shot taken today is a brick for more efficiency tomorrow..

Now the important thing is not his efficiency but his growth and I think that's why the coach and the team allow him to take shots.

Exactly right. Well said.

Why these stat guys don't get that is beyond me.

[packforfreedom]

I don't understand the problem. yes he is a great talent with huge potential and yes he's still an inefficent scorer, who has also other shortcomings. He also 19 years old and undoubtedly will improve in many areas. Hating on him is as silly as pretend he's a flawless player.

I don't know what's happening to this board but it's really changing for the worse.

[Nick K]

I don't understand the problem. yes he is a great talent with huge potential and yes he's still an inefficent scorer, who has also other shortcomings. He also 19 years old and undoubtedly will improve in many areas. Hating on him is as silly as pretend he's a flawless player.

I don't know what's happening to this board but it's really changing for the worse.

Spot on.

[Worm Guts]

19ys old with that talent?
According to me In a team with no PO aspiration, in a year of tank to grab #1 #2 or #3 every single shot taken today is a brick for more efficiency tomorrow..

Now the important thing is not his efficiency but his growth and I think that's why the coach and the team allow him to take shots.

Exactly right. Well said.

Why these stat guys don't get that is beyond me.

That’s a different subject. It’s one thing to say Edwards will get better, it’s another to say efficiency doesn’t matter. I fully expect Edwards to get better.
You win basketball games by being more efficient with your possessions than the other team.

[Playmaker17]

You can’t win if you have a guy averaging 24 ppg at .499 TS. Of course the efficiency matters.

Nonsense. You can win with that guy if you have 4 other decent players and a bench to go with it. Conversly, if Ant had a .600 ts% with the rest of the Wolves minus Kat you are not going to win. Simple as that.

You seem unaware of how bad that TS is. There hasn’t been a player who has averaged 24ppg with a TS under .5 in 50 years.

you’re acting as though he hasn’t improved. Over his last 19 games he is scoring 24 ppg on 45% shooting. Is that not acceptable to you?

[Worm Guts]

Nonsense. You can win with that guy if you have 4 other decent players and a bench to go with it. Conversly, if Ant had a .600 ts% with the rest of the Wolves minus Kat you are not going to win. Simple as that.

You seem unaware of how bad that TS is. There hasn’t been a player who has averaged 24ppg with a TS under .5 in 50 years.

you’re acting as though he hasn’t improved. Over his last 19 games he is scoring 24 ppg on 45% shooting. Is that not acceptable to you?

My point isn’t about Anthony Edwards. My point is that you can’t just disregard efficiency.

[m2002brian]

You seem unaware of how bad that TS is. There hasn’t been a player who has averaged 24ppg with a TS under .5 in 50 years.

you’re acting as though he hasn’t improved. Over his last 19 games he is scoring 24 ppg on 45% shooting. Is that not acceptable to you?

My point isn’t about Anthony Edwards. My point is that you can’t just disregard efficiency.

Except his TS is over .5 (54.5%, close to Donovan Mitchell’s career %) since the all star break. Hence the improvement, mentioned earlier, that seems to be overlooked.

Also, his post AS break ts% is better than Mitchell’s rookie season post AS break. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=donovan+mitchell+ts%25+after+the+all+star+break+2018

More fun stats.
Mitchell rookie season post as break - usage rate 29.6%
Edwards rookie season post as break - usage rate 29.4%

[TheZachAttack]

Nonsense. You can win with that guy if you have 4 other decent players and a bench to go with it. Conversly, if Ant had a .600 ts% with the rest of the Wolves minus Kat you are not going to win. Simple as that.

You seem unaware of how bad that TS is. There hasn’t been a player who has averaged 24ppg with a TS under .5 in 50 years.

you’re acting as though he hasn’t improved. Over his last 19 games he is scoring 24 ppg on 45% shooting. Is that not acceptable to you?

Just to elevate the discussion a little bit, FG% is a pretty irrelevant stat. Let's use 2 PT FG%, 3 PT FG%, and/or TS%.

He's +50% on 2 pointers, +34% on 3 points, and +54% TS over his last 20+ games.... much more indicative of what's happening than a 45% shooting percentage. FG% is broken for wings who shoot volume 3's.

[Klomp]

You seem unaware of how bad that TS is. There hasn’t been a player who has averaged 24ppg with a TS under .5 in 50 years.

you’re acting as though he hasn’t improved. Over his last 19 games he is scoring 24 ppg on 45% shooting. Is that not acceptable to you?

Just to elevate the discussion a little bit, FG% is a pretty irrelevant stat. Let's use 2 PT FG%, 3 PT FG%, and/or TS%.

He's +50% on 2 pointers, +34% on 3 points, and +54% TS over his last 20+ games.... much more indicative of what's happening than a 45% shooting percentage. FG% is broken for wings who shoot volume 3's.

Especially in the case of Edwards who hasn't totally found his 3-point stroke yet. (not a criticism, merely an observation)

Edwards is 20th in the league in 3PA per game (6.9), despite shooting 32.0% on the season. Looking at the rest of the top 20, the lowest percentage is Jordan Clarkson at 34.8% (8.7 attempts). Sorted by 3PA per game, there are 8 players in the Top 50 in volume who shoot 35.0% or lower (Clarkson, Edwards, Beal, Booker, Kuzma, Ross, Brooks, Fox).

[TheZachAttack]

you’re acting as though he hasn’t improved. Over his last 19 games he is scoring 24 ppg on 45% shooting. Is that not acceptable to you?

Just to elevate the discussion a little bit, FG% is a pretty irrelevant stat. Let's use 2 PT FG%, 3 PT FG%, and/or TS%.

He's +50% on 2 pointers, +34% on 3 points, and +54% TS over his last 20+ games.... much more indicative of what's happening than a 45% shooting percentage. FG% is broken for wings who shoot volume 3's.

Especially in the case of Edwards who hasn't totally found his 3-point stroke yet. (not a criticism, merely an observation)

Edwards is 20th in the league in 3PA per game (6.9), despite shooting 32.0% on the season. Looking at the rest of the top 20, the lowest percentage is Jordan Clarkson at 34.8% (8.7 attempts). Sorted by 3PA per game, there are 8 players in the Top 50 in volume who shoot 35.0% or lower (Clarkson, Edwards, Beal, Booker, Kuzma, Ross, Brooks, Fox).

I think if you look at the majority of the major wing scorers who shoot volume levels of 3's (Doncic, Mitchell, Lebron, Harden, Booker, etc) most of them either started their career or are generally 32-36% shooting guys from 3. A lot of it has to do with the role they play in the offense and the number of difficult and contested shots they take as well as the number of shots they take off the dribble.

The reason that I call that out as these guys are thought of as elite offensive scorers and good shooters despite volume shooting at non-elite percentages (which is almost impossible to do in that role... for example Doncic was at 31.6% and 32% on 8-9 attempts per game over his first two seasons).

The point is Edwards has a path to being an elite wing scorer without a 40% 3 point percentage. He really just needs to get to 35-36% and there are lots of comparables for players who have good shooting strokes like he does, who shoot volume and tough 3's like he does, and can hit any type of shot like he can getting to that level.

Edit -

I'd probably even take this a step further and want to break it out by FTa's per game, percentage at the rim (and number of attempts per game), and 3 point percentage (and 3 point attempts per game).

Edwards is taking 5-6 free throws per game, shooting +60% from the rim, and shooting 33+% on 3's on volume (which is a good thing as long as this volume is taking from his midrange attempts which it largely has), under Finch. This is the recipe for producing efficient volume offense. If Edwards can take another jump to around 35-36%+ from 3, continue to optimize his shot selection, and potentially even ticking his FTa per game above 6 and even higher... he'll start producing at above average or even borderline elite efficiency for a volume wing scorer playing Edwards role on offense.

The next step after that will be to get better at more consistently making others better as well--which he has also gotten better at. However, I think this outlines that he's taken a significant jump forward under Finch and he's at the cusp of reaching some pretty good levels for a volume scorer if his last 20-25 games is a new baseline for his play.

[theGreatRC]

The way he attacks the rim honestly reminds me of Lebron, idc what anyone has to say about that LOL. Like he is putting fear into defenders from trying to jump with him

I won't be surprised if he averages 8+ FT per game next year.

I pray he continues to work hard this off season, Ant really is A1

[TheZachAttack]

Edwards last 23 games since the all-star break:

35 MPG

23.4 PPG - 5 rebounds - 3 assists - 2.6 TOs - 2.0 STOCKs

on

50% 2 PT FG - 34.7% 3 PT FG (8.3 att.g) - 78% FT (5.1 att/g)

That's a

51% eFG and a 55% TS

[Playmaker17]

Just to elevate the discussion a little bit, FG% is a pretty irrelevant stat. Let's use 2 PT FG%, 3 PT FG%, and/or TS%.

He's +50% on 2 pointers, +34% on 3 points, and +54% TS over his last 20+ games.... much more indicative of what's happening than a 45% shooting percentage. FG% is broken for wings who shoot volume 3's.

Especially in the case of Edwards who hasn't totally found his 3-point stroke yet. (not a criticism, merely an observation)

Edwards is 20th in the league in 3PA per game (6.9), despite shooting 32.0% on the season. Looking at the rest of the top 20, the lowest percentage is Jordan Clarkson at 34.8% (8.7 attempts). Sorted by 3PA per game, there are 8 players in the Top 50 in volume who shoot 35.0% or lower (Clarkson, Edwards, Beal, Booker, Kuzma, Ross, Brooks, Fox).

I think if you look at the majority of the major wing scorers who shoot volume levels of 3's (Doncic, Mitchell, Lebron, Harden, Booker, etc) most of them either started their career or are generally 32-36% shooting guys from 3. A lot of it has to do with the role they play in the offense and the number of difficult and contested shots they take as well as the number of shots they take off the dribble.

The reason that I call that out as these guys are thought of as elite offensive scorers and good shooters despite volume shooting at non-elite percentages (which is almost impossible to do in that role... for example Doncic was at 31.6% and 32% on 8-9 attempts per game over his first two seasons).

The point is Edwards has a path to being an elite wing scorer without a 40% 3 point percentage. He really just needs to get to 35-36% and there are lots of comparables for players who have good shooting strokes like he does, who shoot volume and tough 3's like he does, and can hit any type of shot like he can getting to that level.

Edit -

I'd probably even take this a step further and want to break it out by FTa's per game, percentage at the rim (and number of attempts per game), and 3 point percentage (and 3 point attempts per game).

Edwards is taking 5-6 free throws per game, shooting +60% from the rim, and shooting 33+% on 3's on volume (which is a good thing as long as this volume is taking from his midrange attempts which it largely has), under Finch. This is the recipe for producing efficient volume offense. If Edwards can take another jump to around 35-36%+ from 3, continue to optimize his shot selection, and potentially even ticking his FTa per game above 6 and even higher... he'll start producing at above average or even borderline elite efficiency for a volume wing scorer playing Edwards role on offense.

The next step after that will be to get better at more consistently making others better as well--which he has also gotten better at. However, I think this outlines that he's taken a significant jump forward under Finch and he's at the cusp of reaching some pretty good levels for a volume scorer if his last 20-25 games is a new baseline for his play.

Since the All-Star Break, here are your NBA league leaders in pull-up 3P% (min. 94 3PA):

1. Steph Curry: 45.7%
2. Anthony Edwards: 39.4%

Think about that. Only Steph Curry, in the midst of a career run, is outshooting the Wolves’ star rookie.

There’s something special here.

[Baseline81]

From ESPN's article: Ranking LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and other NBA rookies by future star potential

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/31295796/ranking-lamelo-ball-anthony-edwards-other-nba-rookies-future-star-potential

Schmitz: Anthony Edwards is the clear-cut No. 2 for me. I never understood the Dion Waiters comparisons and based on what I’ve seen this season, I think he has a chance to be one of the NBA’s top scorers for years to come. You just don’t find players with that body type with that type of footwork and shift. The fact that he’s shooting over 50% from 2 and 35% from 3 with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio over his past 10 games is a step in the right direction in terms of his efficiency.

He hasn’t been able to turn around a struggling Timberwolves team as a 19-year-old, but the talent is eye-popping and Edwards has been a net positive, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. The defense and decision-making need attention, but he’s an underrated passer and I think he has the ability to be a longtime NBA All-Star if he continues to develop.

KP, I noticed that Edwards didn’t make your 25 under 25 list. Why is that, and what does his future look like to you?

Pelton: Naturally, Edwards’ efficiency is a concern. His .501 true shooting percentage (TS%) might not have been out of place in a different era. LeBron James posted a .488 TS% fresh out of high school, worst among rookies who have averaged 20 PPG since the NBA-ABA merger, but that was only 5.4% worse than league average during a relative low point for NBA offense. By contrast, Edwards is 12.3% worse than the much higher league average now.

I’m also a bit worried about Edwards developing bad habits. He’s getting all the minutes he wants without much support when Karl-Anthony Towns is out of the lineup, and he has a tendency to fall in love with the pull-up 3-pointer, a shot he’s hitting at a 31% clip according to NBA Advanced Stats. His commitment to getting back on defense is abysmal. Minnesota goes from allowing 10.9 fast-break points per 100 possessions with Edwards on the bench to 15.9 with him on the court, a rate that would be worst in the league for a team by a comfortable margin.

That said, as you note Edwards has performed well enough lately that his most similar players at the same age are trending toward the guys who figured it out and became All-Stars. Bradley Beal and Devin Booker are his two best comps according to my SCHOENE projection system, so I would move him up to third among rookies, good enough for a spot in the top 25 under 25.

Still, I can’t put Edwards ahead of Tyrese Haliburton. As you know, I’ve been a Haliburton believer since his unheralded freshman season at Iowa State, and yet his NBA performance has still blown me away in terms of his accuracy as a shooter and ability to create problems for defenses in the pick-and-roll game — two perceived weaknesses entering the draft. Haliburton may not have the star equity of Edwards, but health permitting, he looks close to a lock to be a capable starter in the league for years to come. And the way he’s exceeded expectations thus far suggests we shouldn’t put a hard cap on his potential.

Pelton's coming around should Edwards continue his post all-star form. Comparisons to Beal and Booker are far better than Waiters.

[_AIJ_]

Wont put ahead of Haliburton. Give me a **** break.

[twolves31]

Wont put ahead of Haliburton. Give me a **** break.

I haven't seen Haliburton play much, his stats do look solid. We will see what happens in the game tonight but in the two games I've watched him versus the Wolves Edwards is 2-0 and outside of assists the dominant player head to head.

Edwards vs Haliburton in two game matchup
Edwards 23.5pts, 6reb, 4 ast, 2.5stls, 44.4% 36.6 from 3.
Haliburton 8pts 8 ast, 1.5reb, 1.5stls, 31.6% and 25% from 3.

[jpatrick]

Wont put ahead of Haliburton. Give me a **** break.

I strongly disagree with Pelton but he’s and advanced numbers guy and in that regard, Haliburton is ahead.

I think the article is pretty fair and balanced. No one doubts that Edwards will score 20+ points/gm for a long time. The question is whether he’ll be a positive effect on a teams ability to win. For that, has to really improve defensively, rebounding, and decision making. The ball will be in his hands a lot, he’ll never be a Lebron, Harden, Doncic-type basketball genius, but he can improve his decision making regarding when to score, when to shoot, when to let the game come to him vs attacking.

All that said, I think he’s definitely the #2 rookie in this class and the only guy on the same tier with LaMelo.

[life_saver]

Ant's efficiency has definitely picked up as season progressed...his FT shooting % is also already solid at 80%...despite shooting at high volume, his 3 pt % is also not bad..he can still avoid some of those pull-up 3's he takes but 35% (since all-star break) is still ok. He is now shooting at 33% from 3 for entire season.

His His EFG% is now 51% post ASB (and 47% for entire season) which is pretty decent for a guard/wing. For comparison, Mitchell's EFG% was 50% in his rookie season. Ant's FTs have also gone up since ASB. He used to average only 2.4 FTs previously but now is averaging 5.1 FTs per game since ASB.

Hope he can focus more on his off-the ball defense and transition defense..especially needs to stop over-helping on defense. This seems like a plague on this team and almost every player except one or two does this same mistake

[zimpy27]

Anthony Edwards since the all-star break (last 23 games):
23.6 PPG, 5 RPG, 3 APG, 1.6 SPG and TS% 0.55

Those are close to sophomore Wade numbers while Ant is 4 years younger (Wade was 8th in MVP voting that season and won finals MVP season after), the same numbers as Mitchell last season while Ant is also 4 years younger.


Honestly, he looks like he could be a superstar. I think he has become the only untradeable piece on the Wolves.