2016 draft thread: Part 2

[RationalGaze]

Yeah I like bender as our pick but who is deyonta? Seems like there are so many intriguing big men in this draft with X factors like maker and qi who ppl dismiss due to their inexperience but they have loads of potential

Davis is being projected as an elite defensive talent given his intangibles with lateral quickness/movement and athletic shot blocking with him being a natural defender, but isn't broken on the offensive end as he displays a shooters touch. He was a 1 year or 2 year guy and he would be ready to be drafted. He just needs continued development and what better place than KG, Towns, Pek, DIeng, Bjelica, and Thibodeau to maximize his potential.

Davis is generally projected late lottery and only averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds per game. If you honestly think he deserves to chosen top 6, that's fine but I don't want to reach for a guy just because he plays PF.

There are a few Power Forwards to be had, but it's best to take the one that's going to best suit what you're building. As with high picks it's not just about what you're doing, but what you'll be doing in the future. Denzel was the main guy on offense as Izzo featured him the most and built around him, but Davis was a much needed player. He played Center for them given his shot blocking and being 6'10" 245lbs. supposedly and in time will be able to rotate more with Kat, but he isn't ready for 30 minutes of play.
If I had to choose I would choose Dragan, but the more I look at him I see no reasonable way Boston passes him up if they keep the 3rd pick. We'll have to let the thought of getting Dragan go and look at other forwards if we're to draft a future starter.

I would like rabb more than davis. Today is the final day to make his declaration.

You don't have to sell me on Rabb given I was arguing him to be the 5th pick, but this was before my knowledge of Davis coming out. Ultimately Davis has the better intangibles to be the better of the two defenders and he can definitely be built up on offense. Just a matter of time which the Wolves have plenty of. I like a lot of the forwards in this draft and Rabb should definitely come out, but Davis has my pick.

[Killboard]

Davis is being projected as an elite defensive talent given his intangibles with lateral quickness/movement and athletic shot blocking with him being a natural defender, but isn't broken on the offensive end as he displays a shooters touch. He was a 1 year or 2 year guy and he would be ready to be drafted. He just needs continued development and what better place than KG, Towns, Pek, DIeng, Bjelica, and Thibodeau to maximize his potential.

There are a few Power Forwards to be had, but it's best to take the one that's going to best suit what you're building. As with high picks it's not just about what you're doing, but what you'll be doing in the future. Denzel was the main guy on offense as Izzo featured him the most and built around him, but Davis was a much needed player. He played Center for them given his shot blocking and being 6'10" 245lbs. supposedly and in time will be able to rotate more with Kat, but he isn't ready for 30 minutes of play.
If I had to choose I would choose Dragan, but the more I look at him I see no reasonable way Boston passes him up if they keep the 3rd pick. We'll have to let the thought of getting Dragan go and look at other forwards if we're to draft a future starter.

I would like rabb more than davis. Today is the final day to make his declaration.

You don't have to sell me on Rabb given I was arguing him to be the 5th pick, but this was before my knowledge of Davis coming out. Ultimately Davis has the better intangibles to be the better of the two defenders and he can definitely be built up on offense. Just a matter of time which the Wolves have plenty of. I like a lot of the forwards in this draft and Rabb should definitely come out, but Davis has my pick.

Rabb shows better post moves and touch around the rim. Davis has more physical tools IMO.

I wouldnt overlook sabonis neither. While he could be better suited to play center I love his aproach to defensa and Im sure thibbs will take a good look. I dont think he is slower than David West or Boris Diaw IE.

[gopher wolf]

Just ran Draft Simulator, and first attempt was my ideal outcome:

1. Wolves...let the debate and trade offers circus begin!
2. Celtics (from Nets)...Eastern conference team still saying FU to New York based team.
3. 76ers...don't reward the tank with a 1-2 selection in 2 player draft.
4. 76ers (from Lakers)...Lakers yet another set back.
5. Suns...the first Western conference team (outside Wolves) to select. And at 5, a guard deep Suns now has to make a big decision at a draft spot that is guard deep.

Chad Ford updated his big board/team needs on ESPN simulator. I ran it 130 times (yes, I have no life) and we ended up with Ingram, Simmons or Bender 52 times or exactly 40% of the time. Before the update, Bender along with Simmons and Ingram was locked in at 3 regardless of the order so this new update gives us about an 11% better chance to get one of those 3.

[C.lupus]

It looks like Ford's board for Minny is;
1/ Simmons
2. Ingram
3. Bender
4. Ellenson
5. Murray
6. Hield

He seems way too high on Ellenson.

[NewWolvesOrder]

It looks like Ford's board for Minny is;
1/ Simmons
2. Ingram
3. Bender
4. Ellenson
5. Murray
6. Hield

He seems way too high on Ellenson.

isn't Chad Fraud a clown who got caught edited his past draft mocks?

[Foye]

I want Marqueese Chriss. Not with our pick, though.

[RationalGaze]

It looks like Ford's board for Minny is;
1/ Simmons
2. Ingram
3. Bender
4. Ellenson
5. Murray
6. Hield

He seems way too high on Ellenson.

isn't Chad Fraud a clown who got caught edited his past draft mocks?

Yeah and people called him out on twitter with people here and there still calling him out come draft time and updates.

[gopher wolf]

I know it's probably a moot point and Thibs won't make a deal with the Bulls but going back to the Portis talk, would #5-6 +Shabazz for Portis and #14 be doable? I would not involve Dieng in this deal as another poster had thought of but I think I would rather have Portis and Valentine (the guy I would take at 14) over Murray/Hield and Shabazz. Portis is of course the perfect fit at PF for this team with a lot of potential and is very young while Valentine seems to have a much better attitude than Bazz and is much less selfish. He is also one of the most experienced and productive guys in this draft and would be able to contribute immediately off the bench.

Probably won't matter but thoughts?

[RationalGaze]

I know it's probably a moot point and Thibs won't make a deal with the Bulls but going back to the Portis talk, would #5-6 +Shabazz for Portis and #14 be doable? I would not involve Dieng in this deal as another poster had thought of but I think I would rather have Portis and Valentine (the guy I would take at 14) over Murray/Hield and Shabazz. Portis is of course the perfect fit at PF for this team with a lot of potential and is very young while Valentine seems to have a much better attitude than Bazz and is much less selfish. He is also one of the most experienced and productive guys in this draft and would be able to contribute immediately off the bench.

Probably won't matter but thoughts?

It's doable, but not valuable. Portis isn't the only forward able to play next to Kat as any legit forward can play next to Kat. Allen Crabbe would be a nice pickup and draft Wenyen Gabriel (SF) next year is he's available. Not sold Valentine will be able to translate to the Nba and you're only left with Portis for the 5th.
Bulls do it, but Wolves don't. Portis is good just don't see him being starting good.

[TwolvesFanRome]

I apologize for the ignorance but...how many chances (%) we have to take the first or the second pick?

[C.lupus]

I apologize for the ignorance but...how many chances (%) we have to take the first or the second pick?

8.8% for #1
9.7% for #2
10.7% for #3
26.1% for #5
36.0% for #6
8.4% for #7
0.4% for #8

[Merc_Porto]

26.1% for #5
36.0% for #6

[Klomp]

I apologize for the ignorance but...how many chances (%) we have to take the first or the second pick?

8.8% for #1
9.7% for #2
10.7% for #3
26.1% for #5
36.0% for #6
8.4% for #7
0.4% for #8

Once again, this is a reminder that all of the lottery spots are NOT decided in one drawing.

Minnesota has 88 lottery combos. That doesn't change in any of the drawings. What does change is the number of possibilities it is out of in each drawing.

It starts out as 88 out of 1,000 (8.8%) for the No. 1 pick. Just to show how this works, let me use some extremes. If PHI were to win the No. 1, our odds for No. 2 jump to 88 of 750 (11.7%). But if CHI were to win, they only change too 88 of 995 (still 8.8%). Then another drawing is held for the No. 3 pick.

Once the top 3 picks are drawn, picks 3 through 14 are placed in reverse order by how they finish. That's why we cannot end up with the No. 4 pick. Odds are higher for No. 6 because it factors in all of the odds for picks 6-14 for each of the three drawings. It is that way for every team in the lottery.

Does that make sense?

[C.lupus]

I apologize for the ignorance but...how many chances (%) we have to take the first or the second pick?

8.8% for #1
9.7% for #2
10.7% for #3
26.1% for #5
36.0% for #6
8.4% for #7
0.4% for #8

Once again, this is a reminder that all of the lottery spots are NOT decided in one drawing.

Minnesota has 88 lottery combos. That doesn't change in any of the drawings. What does change is the number of possibilities it is out of in each drawing.

It starts out as 88 out of 1,000 (8.8%) for the No. 1 pick. Just to show how this works, let me use some extremes. If PHI were to win the No. 1, our odds for No. 2 jump to 88 of 750 (11.7%). But if CHI were to win, they only change too 88 of 995 (still 8.8%). Then another drawing is held for the No. 3 pick.

Once the top 3 picks are drawn, picks 3 through 14 are placed in reverse order by how they finish. That's why we cannot end up with the No. 4 pick. Odds are higher for No. 6 because it factors in all of the odds for picks 6-14 for each of the three drawings. It is that way for every team in the lottery.

Does that make sense?

The number of combinations doesn't change. It's still 88 out of 1000. If they draw PHI (or CHI) again, they do a re-draw. They don't take out all of PHI's (or CHI's) combos.

[gopher wolf]

I know it's probably a moot point and Thibs won't make a deal with the Bulls but going back to the Portis talk, would #5-6 +Shabazz for Portis and #14 be doable? I would not involve Dieng in this deal as another poster had thought of but I think I would rather have Portis and Valentine (the guy I would take at 14) over Murray/Hield and Shabazz. Portis is of course the perfect fit at PF for this team with a lot of potential and is very young while Valentine seems to have a much better attitude than Bazz and is much less selfish. He is also one of the most experienced and productive guys in this draft and would be able to contribute immediately off the bench.

Probably won't matter but thoughts?

It's doable, but not valuable. Portis isn't the only forward able to play next to Kat as any legit forward can play next to Kat. Allen Crabbe would be a nice pickup and draft Wenyen Gabriel (SF) next year is he's available. Not sold Valentine will be able to translate to the Nba and you're only left with Portis for the 5th.
Bulls do it, but Wolves don't. Portis is good just don't see him being starting good.

If I could have the choice between Murray, Hield or Portis, I'd take Portis. Portis seems like one of the few PFs that can or has the potential to stretch the floor for Towns with his 3 point range, guard effectively on the perimeter, be a rim protector down low and rebound. There are a lot of PF's that can do some or most of those things but I think Portis will eventually be able to all very well. Same goes for Bender which is why i'm very high on him as well. I do agree with you that Crabbe would be a very nice piece coming off the bench especially if we don't draft Murray or Hield.

[Klomp]

The number of combinations doesn't change. It's still 88 out of 1000. If they draw PHI (or CHI) again, they do a re-draw. They don't take out all of PHI's (or CHI's) combos.

While they don't physically take them out, they don't count them, as you said. Meaning they don't matter in the number of possible outcomes.

[RationalGaze]

I know it's probably a moot point and Thibs won't make a deal with the Bulls but going back to the Portis talk, would #5-6 +Shabazz for Portis and #14 be doable? I would not involve Dieng in this deal as another poster had thought of but I think I would rather have Portis and Valentine (the guy I would take at 14) over Murray/Hield and Shabazz. Portis is of course the perfect fit at PF for this team with a lot of potential and is very young while Valentine seems to have a much better attitude than Bazz and is much less selfish. He is also one of the most experienced and productive guys in this draft and would be able to contribute immediately off the bench.

Probably won't matter but thoughts?

It's doable, but not valuable. Portis isn't the only forward able to play next to Kat as any legit forward can play next to Kat. Allen Crabbe would be a nice pickup and draft Wenyen Gabriel (SF) next year is he's available. Not sold Valentine will be able to translate to the Nba and you're only left with Portis for the 5th.
Bulls do it, but Wolves don't. Portis is good just don't see him being starting good.

If I could have the choice between Murray, Hield or Portis, I'd take Portis. Portis seems like one of the few PFs that can or has the potential to stretch the floor for Towns with his 3 point range, guard effectively on the perimeter, be a rim protector down low and rebound. There are a lot of PF's that can do some or most of those things but I think Portis will eventually be able to all very well. Same goes for Bender which is why i'm very high on him as well. I do agree with you that Crabbe would be a very nice piece coming off the bench especially if we don't draft Murray or Hield.

I like portis, but not for the 5th when someone like Davis projects to be the better defender. Far as 3 point shooting goes the starting forward doesn't need it, but does need to stretch the floor with a mid-range game.

[Hogified05]

Curious. Think Vucevic and 11 would be enough to pry the 1st away from yall if you get it? Vuc and Towns would be legit together. Definitely puts you in the playoffs next year no doubt.

[GimmeDat]

Jackson and Baldwin aren't lottery picks so let's get that out of the way.
Deyonta is the prospect I'm sold on to get and even after the tests he's still there then that's a trade.
But, if the Bulls' front office truly hates Thibs then I don't see much exchanging going on between the two. I think Davis gets picked up before the 14th pick so no can do. Don't need to have Taj just 14, Felicio, and Kings pick.

I've seen a few of you guys are high on Davis, I'm not sure why tbh. I know you're in the market for a PF, but it seems like a massive reach at #5. If you want Davis I think trading down is the smart move.

As for Jackson/Baldwin, I'm not too high on Baldwin as a lottery pick either, but Jackson as been one of the favourites on our board for #14 for a while now.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Curious. Think Vucevic and 11 would be enough to pry the 1st away from yall if you get it? Vuc and Towns would be legit together. Definitely puts you in the playoffs next year no doubt.

Id rather have Dieng than Vuc next to KAT.

Dieng isnt the best defender, but Vuc is worse.

Vuc also needs touches. Id rather those touches go to KAt and Wiggins. Dieng can make a living with minimal offensive touches.
Dieng can also easily transition to 1st big off the bench if needed.

And we have to drop to 11 from 5?

Easy No.