Playoff Race and Scoreboard Watching

[winforlose]

It is way too early to know if GSW win is good or bad for us. I have no idea if the Lakers and Nuggets will each lose two games. They do, and GSW loses one then in theory if we win out we get the 3 seed. But even that needs to be double checked.

We need the Lakers to lose 3 more games and the Warriors to lose 2 more games. If we are tied with those teams, the division winner would be the higher seed (plus they have the head to head or conference record tie-breakers).

Here are the basic tie-breakers...

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/5WXxwT.png

Also, the Blazers winning yesterday was good. They play the Bulls tonight (another game we want them to win), @ home against the SAS Sunday and then against the Jazz on Wednesday. While they are going through that stretch the Kings and Suns have brutal 4 game stretches. The Blazers could easily be playing to get into the play-in that last weekend @ home against two team we would like them to beat (GSW and LAL). I'm not saying they will beat them, but it is better that they would be playing for something rather than sitting half of their lineup like the Jazz, 76ers and Nets will be.

Small correction. If Lakers lose 2, Denver loses 2, Wolves win out, then all three teams have 32 losses and we win the 3 way tie. This does require GSW to lose at least 1 game to clear the path.

Edit to add: The division tie breaker would not kick in at 32 losses for both teams because neither GSW nor LAL wins the division at 32 losses. They tie for it, and our 4 way tie breaker record is 4-0, + 1-3 + 2-2. Lakers are 2-2 (Wolves,) 2-2 (Nuggets,) 3-1 (Warriors,) which is also 7-5. In a 4 way tie with Denver, Warriors, and Lakers we lose this tie breaker. We do much better if the Warriors lose 2 and the Clippers end at 32 losses as we are 3-0 against them. LAL is 3-1 against LAC but that loss tips the scales our way. In any case, all these fancy scenarios require us to win out. They also require LAL and DEN to at least hit 32 losses and for GSW to hit at least 32 preferably more. The Clippers could really help us, but I don’t know that they can win out.

[TimberKat]

The GSW win opens up some very interesting and complicated scenarios where Twolves could end up 3rd if all the cards fall in places. At the same time, all teams above us could just not fall enough that we end up 8th.

GSW loss would had made things simpler with targeted winners and losers. Make it easier to root for certain teams.

[Ethomasp31]

The GSW win opens up some very interesting and complicated scenarios where Twolves could end up 3rd if all the cards fall in places. At the same time, all teams above us could just not fall enough that we end up 8th.

GSW loss would had made things simpler with targeted winners and losers. Make it easier to root for certain teams.

We have over 70% chance to finish in the top 6 now. That percentage is found simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 time with more factors than you can imagine being taken under consideration. Is it going to be off a little? Sure but it is the most accurate predictor of the end of season records. Way better than you or I guessing what is going to happen.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

If we win out it is impossible for us to finish outside the top 6. We would most likely be the 3 or 4 seed. We have three games left against teams that have nothing to play for...while all the other teams have at most one, with GSW having possibly two. If we finish 4-1 we are going to be in the top 6. If we finish 3-2 we will probably be in the play-in game. I'm not going to get upset if one team wins or loses a game or two in the next week I wasn't expecting. Sometimes there might be surprises, but the Timberwolves can only control what the Timberwolves do. We have a lot of things going in our favor, if we don't mess up we will be fine.

One other thing...last year the Wolves were 29-11 through 40 games and 27-15 in their last 42. This year we were 21-19 through 40 games and will probably finish better than 27-15 in our last 42. This is despite Randle missing 13 straight games, DDV missing 19 straight games and Rudy missing 9 straight games. I guess what I'm saying is that I feel good going into the playoffs this year. Last year many people thought the Suns would beat us in the first round and even more didn't think we had a very good chance against the Nuggets going into that series. I hope we finish the season strong, get some rest before the playoffs start and play the games and see what happens.

[winforlose]

The GSW win opens up some very interesting and complicated scenarios where Twolves could end up 3rd if all the cards fall in places. At the same time, all teams above us could just not fall enough that we end up 8th.

GSW loss would had made things simpler with targeted winners and losers. Make it easier to root for certain teams.

Hold on. GSW plays LAC, DEN plays MEM, and that doesn’t even talk about our play MEM. Major movement will happen by default. That is also not factoring that Houston can fall out of 2nd and even down to 4th or 5th if they play their cards wrong. 0-5 for Houston is I would say 90% likely if they try and rest anyone at this point. They face OKC, GSW, LAC, LAL, and DEN. Houston going into the playoffs on a losing streak with a young and unproven roster is tough, and their seed is not secured, especially with a loss to OKC (which I am hoping for.) if the Rockets fall all the way down they tie with us if we win out. So you say maybe those teams don’t get to 32 losses, but there are so many paths for so many teams to end up there, I wouldn’t rule it out.

[Klomp]

One other thing...last year the Wolves were 29-11 through 40 games and 27-15 in their last 42. This year we were 21-19 through 40 games and will probably finish better than 27-15 in our last 42. This is despite Randle missing 13 straight games, DDV missing 19 straight games and Rudy missing 9 straight games. I guess what I'm saying is that I feel good going into the playoffs this year. Last year many people thought the Suns would beat us in the first round and even more didn't think we had a very good chance against the Nuggets going into that series. I hope we finish the season strong, get some rest before the playoffs start and play the games and see what happens.

This is why the hypothetical I brought up in the other thread becomes interesting. I absolutely agree that we seem to be closing in a better situation than we did last year, even if it took a while to get there.

[Ethomasp31]

One other thing...last year the Wolves were 29-11 through 40 games and 27-15 in their last 42. This year we were 21-19 through 40 games and will probably finish better than 27-15 in our last 42. This is despite Randle missing 13 straight games, DDV missing 19 straight games and Rudy missing 9 straight games. I guess what I'm saying is that I feel good going into the playoffs this year. Last year many people thought the Suns would beat us in the first round and even more didn't think we had a very good chance against the Nuggets going into that series. I hope we finish the season strong, get some rest before the playoffs start and play the games and see what happens.

This is why the hypothetical I brought up in the other thread becomes interesting. I absolutely agree that we seem to be closing in a better situation than we did last year, even if it took a while to get there.

I don't know about better...we still have problems at the beginning of games and seem to not play as hard from time to time, but I'm excited to see what the playoff Wolves look like this year. Does ANT bring it up a level like i'm expecting? If he does, I'll take our chances against anyone in the West. We would obviously be underdogs against OKC, but i would love to see that series in the playoffs. I think it would be way closer than people in the national media think it will be. Even comparing SGA and Jokic...the Wolves have guys they can put on SGA, but they have no answer for Jokic. That's why in a weird way I don't want to play Denver in the playoffs. Try and get the highest seed possible in the playoffs, and if it ends up being the 4 or 5, so be it. We will probably have to go through OKC at sometime, why not make it earlier while we are still somewhat fresh.

[TimberKat]

The GSW win opens up some very interesting and complicated scenarios where Twolves could end up 3rd if all the cards fall in places. At the same time, all teams above us could just not fall enough that we end up 8th.

GSW loss would had made things simpler with targeted winners and losers. Make it easier to root for certain teams.

Hold on. GSW plays LAC, DEN plays MEM, and that doesn’t even talk about our play MEM. Major movement will happen by default. That is also not factoring that Houston can fall out of 2nd and even down to 4th or 5th if they play their cards wrong. 0-5 for Houston is I would say 90% likely if they try and rest anyone at this point. They face OKC, GSW, LAC, LAL, and DEN. Houston going into the playoffs on a losing streak with a young and unproven roster is tough, and their seed is not secured, especially with a loss to OKC (which I am hoping for.) if the Rockets fall all the way down they tie with us if we win out. So you say maybe those teams don’t get to 32 losses, but there are so many paths for so many teams to end up there, I wouldn’t rule it out.

GSW has a difficult schedule but they are one game ahead with the tie breaker. Also, absolutely, there are many scenarios. I look at it as: If we win out, we are likely 4 or 5. That is great but is it realistic? I think "4-1" is most likely, that put us at 6. "3-2" very possible and would put us at 8th.

Edit: may change my tone if LAC lose tonight

[winforlose]

The GSW win opens up some very interesting and complicated scenarios where Twolves could end up 3rd if all the cards fall in places. At the same time, all teams above us could just not fall enough that we end up 8th.

GSW loss would had made things simpler with targeted winners and losers. Make it easier to root for certain teams.

Hold on. GSW plays LAC, DEN plays MEM, and that doesn’t even talk about our play MEM. Major movement will happen by default. That is also not factoring that Houston can fall out of 2nd and even down to 4th or 5th if they play their cards wrong. 0-5 for Houston is I would say 90% likely if they try and rest anyone at this point. They face OKC, GSW, LAC, LAL, and DEN. Houston going into the playoffs on a losing streak with a young and unproven roster is tough, and their seed is not secured, especially with a loss to OKC (which I am hoping for.) if the Rockets fall all the way down they tie with us if we win out. So you say maybe those teams don’t get to 32 losses, but there are so many paths for so many teams to end up there, I wouldn’t rule it out.

GSW has a difficult schedule but they are one game ahead with the tie breaker. Also, absolutely, there are many scenarios. I look at it as: If we win out, we are likely 4 or 5. That is great but is it realistic? I think "4-1" is most likely, that put us at 6. "3-2" very possible and would put us at 8th.

Edit: may change my tone if LAC lose tonight

Not sure a LAC loss is good for us. Not sure any game outside of Houston losing is good for us. Hard to know based on the available information. In an ideal world 32 losses for a lot of teams is the magic number. Keeps any one team from winning their division and in the case of Denver and LAC is a lot of tie breaker fire power (7-0,) that could really help us.

[TimberKat]

Hold on. GSW plays LAC, DEN plays MEM, and that doesn’t even talk about our play MEM. Major movement will happen by default. That is also not factoring that Houston can fall out of 2nd and even down to 4th or 5th if they play their cards wrong. 0-5 for Houston is I would say 90% likely if they try and rest anyone at this point. They face OKC, GSW, LAC, LAL, and DEN. Houston going into the playoffs on a losing streak with a young and unproven roster is tough, and their seed is not secured, especially with a loss to OKC (which I am hoping for.) if the Rockets fall all the way down they tie with us if we win out. So you say maybe those teams don’t get to 32 losses, but there are so many paths for so many teams to end up there, I wouldn’t rule it out.

GSW has a difficult schedule but they are one game ahead with the tie breaker. Also, absolutely, there are many scenarios. I look at it as: If we win out, we are likely 4 or 5. That is great but is it realistic? I think "4-1" is most likely, that put us at 6. "3-2" very possible and would put us at 8th.

Edit: may change my tone if LAC lose tonight

Not sure a LAC loss is good for us. Not sure any game outside of Houston losing is good for us. Hard to know based on the available information. In an ideal world 32 losses for a lot of teams is the magic number. Keeps any one team from winning their division and in the case of Denver and LAC is a lot of tie breaker fire power (7-0,) that could really help us.

If you are going for the big complicated picture, we tie with LAC, DEN and a bunch of teams would be great. I feel if LAC lose tonight, we secured the 7th seed.

[winforlose]

GSW has a difficult schedule but they are one game ahead with the tie breaker. Also, absolutely, there are many scenarios. I look at it as: If we win out, we are likely 4 or 5. That is great but is it realistic? I think "4-1" is most likely, that put us at 6. "3-2" very possible and would put us at 8th.

Edit: may change my tone if LAC lose tonight

Not sure a LAC loss is good for us. Not sure any game outside of Houston losing is good for us. Hard to know based on the available information. In an ideal world 32 losses for a lot of teams is the magic number. Keeps any one team from winning their division and in the case of Denver and LAC is a lot of tie breaker fire power (7-0,) that could really help us.

If you are going for the big complicated picture, we tie with LAC, DEN and a bunch of teams would be great. I feel if LAC lose tonight, we secured the 7th seed.

An LAC loss tonight probably means we don’t get the 3rd seed. It could still happen, but the math gets much harder. Also a loss by the Clippers and a win by us against Memphis plus any other Memphis loss and we basically have 6 locked up.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

The GSW win opens up some very interesting and complicated scenarios where Twolves could end up 3rd if all the cards fall in places. At the same time, all teams above us could just not fall enough that we end up 8th.

GSW loss would had made things simpler with targeted winners and losers. Make it easier to root for certain teams.

We have over 70% chance to finish in the top 6 now. That percentage is found simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 time with more factors than you can imagine being taken under consideration. Is it going to be off a little? Sure but it is the most accurate predictor of the end of season records. Way better than you or I guessing what is going to happen.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

If we win out it is impossible for us to finish outside the top 6. We would most likely be the 3 or 4 seed. We have three games left against teams that have nothing to play for...while all the other teams have at most one, with GSW having possibly two. If we finish 4-1 we are going to be in the top 6. If we finish 3-2 we will probably be in the play-in game. I'm not going to get upset if one team wins or loses a game or two in the next week I wasn't expecting. Sometimes there might be surprises, but the Timberwolves can only control what the Timberwolves do. We have a lot of things going in our favor, if we don't mess up we will be fine.

One other thing...last year the Wolves were 29-11 through 40 games and 27-15 in their last 42. This year we were 21-19 through 40 games and will probably finish better than 27-15 in our last 42. This is despite Randle missing 13 straight games, DDV missing 19 straight games and Rudy missing 9 straight games. I guess what I'm saying is that I feel good going into the playoffs this year. Last year many people thought the Suns would beat us in the first round and even more didn't think we had a very good chance against the Nuggets going into that series. I hope we finish the season strong, get some rest before the playoffs start and play the games and see what happens.

Totally agree. We start slow which was very likely considering the late KAT trade, Julius and Donte integration, Slow start from Mike.... but here we are. at same or better level than last year when it matters. PO look exciting to me .

[TimberKat]

Not sure a LAC loss is good for us. Not sure any game outside of Houston losing is good for us. Hard to know based on the available information. In an ideal world 32 losses for a lot of teams is the magic number. Keeps any one team from winning their division and in the case of Denver and LAC is a lot of tie breaker fire power (7-0,) that could really help us.

If you are going for the big complicated picture, we tie with LAC, DEN and a bunch of teams would be great. I feel if LAC lose tonight, we secured the 7th seed.

An LAC loss tonight probably means we don’t get the 3rd seed. It could still happen, but the math gets much harder. Also a loss by the Clippers and a win by us against Memphis plus any other Memphis loss and we basically have 6 locked up.

Yes, I see what you are saying but just annoying to drag LAC to go along with us at the exact record. I rather root for us to be a game head of Lakers and GSW and tie with DEN to win 3rd seed. So there is clearly a good guy and a bad guy every game, like WWE

[Ethomasp31]

Not sure a LAC loss is good for us. Not sure any game outside of Houston losing is good for us. Hard to know based on the available information. In an ideal world 32 losses for a lot of teams is the magic number. Keeps any one team from winning their division and in the case of Denver and LAC is a lot of tie breaker fire power (7-0,) that could really help us.

If you are going for the big complicated picture, we tie with LAC, DEN and a bunch of teams would be great. I feel if LAC lose tonight, we secured the 7th seed.

An LAC loss tonight probably means we don’t get the 3rd seed. It could still happen, but the math gets much harder. Also a loss by the Clippers and a win by us against Memphis plus any other Memphis loss and we basically have 6 locked up.

I think the Clippers winning or losing will have very little to do if we get the 3rd seed or not. At least the probability will change very little. We need to win out. The Clippers winning out isn't very likely. The 3rd seed has more to do with the Lakers and Warriors not getting to 50 wins and the Nuggets not getting to 51. None of those teams are projected to get there. Could one make it? Yeah, but there is also a good chance none of them do. I don't think OKC will sit a lot of players against the Lakers. If Houston losses to OKC tonight, I don't think they will be sitting guys until the last Sunday at the earliest. They aren't shutting it down with 4 or 5 games left in the regular season. Plus, Houston wants to have the best record they can get. Let's say they win the Western Conference...and the Knicks win the East. The will want to have a better record than the Knicks so they get the home court advantage in the Finals.

[TimberKat]

How exactly division winner tie breaker work? If MIN, DEN, GSW, LAL all tie at 59 games. Does GSW and LAL break the tie first so one is division winner be ahead. The remaining 3 look at best records against each other? Or there is simply no division winner?

[TimberKat]

Also who is the good guy in tonight's game between GSW and DEN? I am rooting for DEN as I hate GSW anyway.

[Klomp]

How exactly division winner tie breaker work? If MIN, DEN, GSW, LAL all tie at 59 games. Does GSW and LAL break the tie first so one is division winner be ahead. The remaining 3 look at best records against each other? Or there is simply no division winner?

Either GSW or LAL would be first, based on being a division winner. That tie has to be broken (H2H, divison record, conference record, etc). Once that's determined, it goes to three-way tiebreaker procedures.

[Ethomasp31]

Also who is the good guy in tonight's game between GSW and DEN? I am rooting for DEN as I hate GSW anyway.

We need them both to lose two games.

Here are the tiebreaker rules...

Two Teams

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/5GSvOy.png


Three or more teams

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/5rBM6k.png

[winforlose]

How exactly division winner tie breaker work? If MIN, DEN, GSW, LAL all tie at 59 games. Does GSW and LAL break the tie first so one is division winner be ahead. The remaining 3 look at best records against each other? Or there is simply no division winner?

Either GSW or LAL would be first, based on being a division winner. That tie has to be broken (H2H, divison record, conference record, etc). Once that's determined, it goes to three-way tiebreaker procedures.

Are you sure? This is a question not a statement, but if two teams are involved in a four way tie wouldn’t the first applicable tie breaker be used instead of resolving the division and then sort the rest out later?

[Ethomasp31]

How exactly division winner tie breaker work? If MIN, DEN, GSW, LAL all tie at 59 games. Does GSW and LAL break the tie first so one is division winner be ahead. The remaining 3 look at best records against each other? Or there is simply no division winner?

Either GSW or LAL would be first, based on being a division winner. That tie has to be broken (H2H, divison record, conference record, etc). Once that's determined, it goes to three-way tiebreaker procedures.

Unless it's only two teams...then its head to head first.

Division winner second.

I know it's weird that way. The Lakers and GSW both would win a two team tie-breaker against us. The Clippers would not if we were in a two way tie for 3rd (or 4th) at 50-32 even if they won the Pacific Division (meaning the Warriors and Lakers finished at 49-33).

By the way OKC getting blown out with most all of their players tonight by Houston. I think this makes it even more likely they play their guys against the Lakers Sunday and Tuesday.

[winforlose]

If you are going for the big complicated picture, we tie with LAC, DEN and a bunch of teams would be great. I feel if LAC lose tonight, we secured the 7th seed.

An LAC loss tonight probably means we don’t get the 3rd seed. It could still happen, but the math gets much harder. Also a loss by the Clippers and a win by us against Memphis plus any other Memphis loss and we basically have 6 locked up.

Yes, I see what you are saying but just annoying to drag LAC to go along with us at the exact record. I rather root for us to be a game head of Lakers and GSW and tie with DEN to win 3rd seed. So there is clearly a good guy and a bad guy every game, like WWE

Think of it like this. Right now the heels and the faces are all in flux because the PPV just ended. Next week we could see a face become a heel, or a heel turn face. Today’s rival is tomorrow’s tag partner, and last years tag partner is tomorrows rival. We won’t know face and heels until at the earliest the 8th or 9th.