Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[cmoss84]

Who's better...TBJ or Burks?

[wolves_89]

Who's better...TBJ or Burks?

Burks can probably provide more on the offensive end, but I'd rate Brown as the better two-way player. When factoring in age and contract I'd stick with Brown. If the Wolves are going to trade for somebody making $8-14M I'd be targeting Tyus Jones and Monte Morris.

[Neeva]

How about Lonnie Walker instead?
Wolves really should have brought back Malik Beasley for the vet minimum. We know he will do nothing in playoffs but would have helped shooting wise in regular season off the bench.

Don't think not signing someone who was terrible for 3 teams including the Wolves over the last few years can be counted as a mistake.

he’s shooting 48 percent from 3 this season his defense sucks like always but his three point shooting is exactly what wolves need off the bench. He did suck with the Jazz and Lakers though, but I had a feeling his shooting would come around eventually, and for vet min he’s kind of a steal (for the regular season anyway).

[winforlose]

How about Lonnie Walker instead?
Wolves really should have brought back Malik Beasley for the vet minimum. We know he will do nothing in playoffs but would have helped shooting wise in regular season off the bench.

Don't think not signing someone who was terrible for 3 teams including the Wolves over the last few years can be counted as a mistake.

he’s shooting 48 percent from 3 this season his defense sucks like always but his three point shooting is exactly what wolves need off the bench. He did suck with the Jazz and Lakers though, but I had a feeling his shooting would come around eventually, and for vet min he’s kind of a steal (for the regular season anyway).

I don’t know how many times it happened, (my gut says at least 4,) but in the Clippers game we kept passing up open 3s for contested 2s or live ball turnovers. This narrative that we need more 3 point shooting is missing the point. We have KAT, Conley, Jaden, Ant, Naz, NAW, and TBJ, all of whom can rain 3s at a high percentage. On the season we are 4th in 3P% at 38.3. The issue we need to increase our volume and decrease our turnovers. The way to do this is to get another PG to get the ball out of Ant’s hands and not force it into NAW’s hands. I am also very sick of watching drive and kick to Kyle who dribbles in and then allows the defense to reset. Either Kyle needs to load up and shoot, or he needs to be anywhere but the corners. Our offense will improve not with more shooting, but with more decisiveness, more off ball movement, and more structure. All of these things are better with JMAC on the floor, and they will be better still with a trade for a real PG2.

[jpatrick]

Lonnie Walker’s MO going back to college is good athlete, good shooter, does nothing else and makes a ton of bone head plays. Doesn’t have a high BBIQ. I haven’t watched a second of him this year but he’s barely playing for a bad Nets team, played only 9 minutes last night. Would I take him for nothing? Yes. Would I give assets? No.

Burks has been a 40% shooter from three over the past six years or so. He’s historically been an average defender, this year with the Pistons understandably maybe the effort hasn’t been there. Is he great? No. But can he fit a role this year and help us? Yes. Someone asked if he’s better than Brown? Absolutely. Brown has been a poorer shooter over years on much much less volume. Shooting 40% in Burks’ volume is impressive.

I think if I’m guessing, Tyus and Burks feel like the two players we are most likely to acquire. Jones salary requires us to move Anderson in the deal, not sure we would do that. Standing pat and scouring the buyout market seems like the most likely option though.

[Colbinii]

Something small with TBJ or Shake + WMJ + MEM 2nd should be all we do as the deadline approaches. I really like this team as is.

[Guest84]

Don't think not signing someone who was terrible for 3 teams including the Wolves over the last few years can be counted as a mistake.

he’s shooting 48 percent from 3 this season his defense sucks like always but his three point shooting is exactly what wolves need off the bench. He did suck with the Jazz and Lakers though, but I had a feeling his shooting would come around eventually, and for vet min he’s kind of a steal (for the regular season anyway).

I don’t know how many times it happened, (my gut says at least 4,) but in the Clippers game we kept passing up open 3s for contested 2s or live ball turnovers. This narrative that we need more 3 point shooting is missing the point. We have KAT, Conley, Jaden, Ant, Naz, NAW, and TBJ, all of whom can rain 3s at a high percentage. On the season we are 4th in 3P% at 38.3. The issue we need to increase our volume and decrease our turnovers. The way to do this is to get another PG to get the ball out of Ant’s hands and not force it into NAW’s hands. I am also very sick of watching drive and kick to Kyle who dribbles in and then allows the defense to reset. Either Kyle needs to load up and shoot, or he needs to be anywhere but the corners. Our offense will improve not with more shooting, but with more decisiveness, more off ball movement, and more structure. All of these things are better with JMAC on the floor, and they will be better still with a trade for a real PG2.

Agreed...although I've noticed that earlier in the season Kyle was timid or reluctant to do anything. As of late, he's been more aggressive and decisive. So while he's turning down the 3 to drive, he's at least being aggressive and looking to score inside more. The team has looked a little better with him on the floor lately doing that. I don't really like him in the SF spot though.

[TimberKat]

I think it's a lock that we will get Tyus Jones for KA + pick for this season.

I had an interesting discussion about Tyus on the Trade Board last week.

My position was that Mike Conley is the main guy that Connelly would go after for next season with Bird rights. We could pay a certain trade price to get Tyus for a playoff run, but another team would pay more, because they could get the playoff run, and USE Tyus’ Bird rights to sign him to a new deal. We can’t afford to sign Conley and Tyus.

HartfordWhalers made the point that maybe that other potential buyer doesn’t exist? Most teams already have their starting PG all lined up, and almost all are better than Tyus. The 5-month rental price we’d offer would be competing with other team’s 5-month rental offers. Maybe that early 2nd would be enough, or Josh Minott.

And Tyus Bird rights aren’t valueless to us, either. What do we do if Mike decides to retire? What if he asks for a big contract? We have no leverage, since we have no one who could step into the PG1 role, and if we are over the second apron, we don’t have a CBA mechanism to find one in free agency. It’s always good business in negotiating contracts, to have other options available - it means the other person doesn’t have all the leverage.

So at this point, I still think a Tyus trade is unlikely, but lately I have been thinking it’s a possibility.

There's a way to match the money without using Anderson, but it requires going into the tax a decent amount this season which I know most of you are averse to.

Aside from that it won't happen. The team is having it's best season possibly ever and Anderson, for all his faults, is a key part of that. I can guarantee you they aren't moving him.

Yes, especially KA seems to start turning it around, even hit a corner 3 in last game. If we are still #1 seed by All Star break (which is now very likely - as someone said - we just need to take care of business), is packaging Milton + stuff to go over tax line this year worth the risk? Is Jones the one put us over the top? Also keep in mind LAL and OKC will make some trade moves too.

[winforlose]

I had an interesting discussion about Tyus on the Trade Board last week.

My position was that Mike Conley is the main guy that Connelly would go after for next season with Bird rights. We could pay a certain trade price to get Tyus for a playoff run, but another team would pay more, because they could get the playoff run, and USE Tyus’ Bird rights to sign him to a new deal. We can’t afford to sign Conley and Tyus.

HartfordWhalers made the point that maybe that other potential buyer doesn’t exist? Most teams already have their starting PG all lined up, and almost all are better than Tyus. The 5-month rental price we’d offer would be competing with other team’s 5-month rental offers. Maybe that early 2nd would be enough, or Josh Minott.

And Tyus Bird rights aren’t valueless to us, either. What do we do if Mike decides to retire? What if he asks for a big contract? We have no leverage, since we have no one who could step into the PG1 role, and if we are over the second apron, we don’t have a CBA mechanism to find one in free agency. It’s always good business in negotiating contracts, to have other options available - it means the other person doesn’t have all the leverage.

So at this point, I still think a Tyus trade is unlikely, but lately I have been thinking it’s a possibility.

There's a way to match the money without using Anderson, but it requires going into the tax a decent amount this season which I know most of you are averse to.

Aside from that it won't happen. The team is having it's best season possibly ever and Anderson, for all his faults, is a key part of that. I can guarantee you they aren't moving him.

Yes, especially KA seems to start turning it around, even hit a corner 3 in last game. If we are still #1 seed by All Star break (which is now very likely - as someone said - we just need to take care of business), is packaging Milton + stuff to go over tax line this year worth the risk? Is Jones the one put us over the top? Also keep in mind LAL and OKC will make some trade moves too.

We need to look beyond this year. We are already in the tax next year without Conley, Kyle, or Jordan. Next year adding a PG is almost impossible except by draft (probably 25-30,) or by minimum contract. We need to make a move this year to secure the next 2-3. If that happens to keep Ant off ball when Conley is off the floor, so much the better.

[life_saver]

So Grimes seems to be available...I haven't watched him much, so not sure about him but his shooting numbers look good..has anyone here have good insight into Grimes ?

Read on Twitter

[shrink]

Yes, especially KA seems to start turning it around, even hit a corner 3 in last game. If we are still #1 seed by All Star break (which is now very likely - as someone said - we just need to take care of business), is packaging Milton + stuff to go over tax line this year worth the risk? Is Jones the one put us over the top? Also keep in mind LAL and OKC will make some trade moves too.

We need to look beyond this year. We are already in the tax next year without Conley, Kyle, or Jordan. Next year adding a PG is almost impossible except by draft (probably 25-30,) or by minimum contract. We need to make a move this year to secure the next 2-3. If that happens to keep Ant off ball when Conley is off the floor, so much the better.

I agree. I will admit that I think playoff windows are short, so I understand the desire to do something this year, but the tiny things we could do with our limited resources are just not significant enough to justify starting the clock on the repeater tax early, and potentially giving up a critical player in the next few years, when the tax burden and rule restraints have become unbearable.

Remember that since we are over the salary cap, we can only add salary by a trade or by an exception. Trades are limited by the parameters of the size of the deal (since we are over the cap), and our exceptions are limited. The non-taxpayer midlevel was used up to bring in Troy Brown and Shake Milton. The Biannual was used last year in the Conley trade. We have the $3.68 DLo exception until it expires 2/9/24. And we have vet minimums, up to a pro-rated $2.1.

Right now we are looking for a talent upgrade that would help us in the playoffs. Few players making $3.68 or less will help with that, and if they do, we probably don’t have the incentive. Hopefully a vet min deal arrives from a buy out. With trade, we would need to salary match to get up to a big enough salary, but there aren’t a lot of great contributors on lower salaries, and again, those that are will be valuable and require trade assets.

I think at best we could add maybe $5 mil worth of payroll, and $5 mil in payroll isn’t likely to make us much better. However, the risk of the repeater is that adding $5 now might encourage the owners to dump a $30-$50 mil player down the road. Staying under the lux this year keeps our window open longer.

[TimberKat]

There's a way to match the money without using Anderson, but it requires going into the tax a decent amount this season which I know most of you are averse to.

Aside from that it won't happen. The team is having it's best season possibly ever and Anderson, for all his faults, is a key part of that. I can guarantee you they aren't moving him.

Yes, especially KA seems to start turning it around, even hit a corner 3 in last game. If we are still #1 seed by All Star break (which is now very likely - as someone said - we just need to take care of business), is packaging Milton + stuff to go over tax line this year worth the risk? Is Jones the one put us over the top? Also keep in mind LAL and OKC will make some trade moves too.

We need to look beyond this year. We are already in the tax next year without Conley, Kyle, or Jordan. Next year adding a PG is almost impossible except by draft (probably 25-30,) or by minimum contract. We need to make a move this year to secure the next 2-3. If that happens to keep Ant off ball when Conley is off the floor, so much the better.

Yes, I am thinking you address the future problem in the off season once we know the real cap/tax/apron/max numbers. We will also have one more trade chip. By trading Milton+stuff for Jones now doesn't change or make the problem any worse. It actually improves our options. We may have to let go all of KA, Conley and Jones or keep them all depending on market value and ownership's willingness to spend.

We may want to keep Milton or Moore from mid season trades if we feel one of them can be a backup PG. Realistically, I see us operating like DEN doing this year, around 20mil tax for a top team next year. Worse case, we unload Towns mid season next year if we play like GSW.

I can't see us making big changes this mid season like trade Towns, JMcD, or Conley. Murray trade would be a bold move but comes with more committed future salary which I don't know ownership is ready for it.

[winforlose]

Yes, especially KA seems to start turning it around, even hit a corner 3 in last game. If we are still #1 seed by All Star break (which is now very likely - as someone said - we just need to take care of business), is packaging Milton + stuff to go over tax line this year worth the risk? Is Jones the one put us over the top? Also keep in mind LAL and OKC will make some trade moves too.

We need to look beyond this year. We are already in the tax next year without Conley, Kyle, or Jordan. Next year adding a PG is almost impossible except by draft (probably 25-30,) or by minimum contract. We need to make a move this year to secure the next 2-3. If that happens to keep Ant off ball when Conley is off the floor, so much the better.

Yes, I am thinking you address the future problem in the off season once we know the real cap/tax/apron/max numbers. We will also have one more trade chip. By trading Milton+stuff for Jones now doesn't change or make the problem any worse. It actually improves our options. We may have to let go all of KA, Conley and Jones or keep them all depending on market value and ownership's willingness to spend.

We may want to keep Milton or Moore from mid season trades if we feel one of them can be a backup PG. Realistically, I see us operating like DEN doing this year, around 20mil tax for a top team next year. Worse case, we unload Towns mid season next year if we play like GSW.

I can't see us making big changes this mid season like trade Towns, JMcD, or Conley. Murray trade would be a bold move but comes with more committed future salary which I don't know ownership is ready for it.

The only way to get Tyus for more than this season (buyout,) is to acquire his bird rights. We cannot do a sign and trade because we would hard cap ourselves. If you don’t trade Kyle and Shake for Tyus you don’t get Tyus and stay under the tax this year. Packaging Shake, TBJ, WMJ, and more to trade for Tyus is a bad idea because being in the tax a year early means more than doubling the tax penalty a year sooner. The same is true of quite a few of the PG options. Put simply waiting cripples your options to such a degree that you are at the mercy of minimum PGs and have no leverage over Conley in contract negotiations. You get Tyus now, Mike might a take a haircut to stay and compete for legacy. Mike has made 250,000,000 in his career and never won a ring. He could stay for 8 and 8 or 10 and 10 and try to win 1-3. If we have no one, now we are desperate and he might demand 14-14 or more, because we have literally no PGs on the roster.

If we go the buyout route, now we have CP3 for a year, then he leaves or retires. We trade Shake as a 5 million expiring and TBJ as a 4 million expiring. You have limited us to 9 million for a backup PG and still don’t have Kyle. So for the sake of keeping Kyle for this year you have lost the ability to get most PGs at the level we need (Jones, Schroeder, ect…) The sad truth is Kyle’s contract is our one high money tradable asset, and if we don’t move it now, you are looking at low leverage sales of either Naz or Karl, or significant roster holes next year.

[shrink]

By trading Milton+stuff for Jones now doesn't change or make the problem any worse. It actually improves our options. We may have to let go all of KA, Conley and Jones or keep them all depending on market value and ownership's willingness to spend.

If we’re going over the lux with a Tyus deal, we need to send out $11.2 mil in matching salary.

That means if we keep Kyle, we probably need to give up Troy Brown Jr, with a Shake, Troy, Wendell package. Then we’d sign two 2-year vet min vets, and add about $5 mil in salary. Stay put, and we’d keep Troy, Shake, WMJ and likely add one 2-year vet later.

A $5 mil increase likely costs us about $15 mil this year. But the bigger question Is whether that improvement is worth risking the repeater, and losing a bigger name player down the road?

[winforlose]

Yes, especially KA seems to start turning it around, even hit a corner 3 in last game. If we are still #1 seed by All Star break (which is now very likely - as someone said - we just need to take care of business), is packaging Milton + stuff to go over tax line this year worth the risk? Is Jones the one put us over the top? Also keep in mind LAL and OKC will make some trade moves too.

We need to look beyond this year. We are already in the tax next year without Conley, Kyle, or Jordan. Next year adding a PG is almost impossible except by draft (probably 25-30,) or by minimum contract. We need to make a move this year to secure the next 2-3. If that happens to keep Ant off ball when Conley is off the floor, so much the better.

I agree. I will admit that I think playoff windows are short, so I understand the desire to do something this year, but the tiny things we could do with our limited resources are just not significant enough to justify starting the clock on the repeater tax early, and potentially giving up a critical player in the next few years, when the tax burden and rule restraints have become unbearable.

Remember that since we are over the salary cap, we can only add salary by a trade or by an exception. Trades are limited by the parameters of the size of the deal (since we are over the cap), and our exceptions are limited. The non-taxpayer midlevel was used up to bring in Troy Brown and Shake Milton. The Biannual was used last year in the Conley trade. We have the $3.68 DLo exception until it expires 2/9/24. And we have vet minimums, up to a pro-rated $2.1.

Right now we are looking for a talent upgrade that would help us in the playoffs. Few players making $3.68 or less will help with that, and if they do, we probably don’t have the incentive. Hopefully a vet min deal arrives from a buy out. With trade, we would need to salary match to get up to a big enough salary, but there aren’t a lot of great contributors on lower salaries, and again, those that are will be valuable and require trade assets.

I think at best we could add maybe $5 mil worth of payroll, and $5 mil in payroll isn’t likely to make us much better. However, the risk of the repeater is that adding $5 now might encourage the owners to dump a $30-$50 mil player down the road. Staying under the lux this year keeps our window open longer.

Since you quoted me I assume you assume that I meant going into the tax. I don’t. I mean moving Kyle, Shake, and Wendell for Tyus, then converting Luka and signing a buyout player. By my math that should put just under the tax even with Mike’s incentive. Listening to Finch, he sees Kyle as a backup SF with two three man rotations Guards (Conley, Ant, NAW,) Bigs (KAT, Rudy, Naz,) and wings (Jaden and Kyle.) If you replace Kyle with a buy out player Hayward, Smart, Roco, to a name a few likely buy out guys, then you still have Miller for depth (next year he or Minott are gonna get a rotation spot anyway,) and you upgrade the offense at the expense of the defense.

[shrink]

Since you quoted me I assume you assume that I meant going into the tax. I don’t.

Earlier in the text string, Shangrila correctly pointed out that it was possible to go over the lux, but that was posted a couple posts ago and didn’t make my quote. I just wanted to point out some of the mechanics for that option.

I think there are three.

A. Trade Anderson and Milton and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. stay under the lux
B. Trade Milton, Troy Brown Jr and WMJ, and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. go over the lux.
C. Don’t trade for Tyus .. stay under the lux.

Personally I think C > A > B, but B makes us a slightly stronger team this year.

[winforlose]

Since you quoted me I assume you assume that I meant going into the tax. I don’t.

Earlier in the text string, Shangrila correctly pointed out that it was possible to go over the lux, but that was posted a couple posts ago and didn’t make my quote. I just wanted to point out some of the mechanics for that option.

I think there are three.

A. Trade Anderson and Milton and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. stay under the lux
B. Trade Milton, Troy Brown Jr and WMJ, and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. go over the lux.
C. Don’t trade for Tyus .. stay under the lux.

Personally I think C > A > B, but B makes us a slightly stronger team this year.

If you go C you need a plan for not having Tyus. There are alternate guards, but again Mike has one or two good years left (assuming he stays healthy, resigns with us, and doesn’t quality slide due to age,) and then we have no one behind him, with no ability to get anyone behind him after this year. Is a Monte Morris someone you trust with the Ant window? Or are you gonna move Karl next year? C is the path that says we are all in on the chip this year, and we believe Kyle is vital to that, but have no plans to contend next year. The reason is now we are moving KAT from a position of weakness (kinda like the Jimmy trade,) and when you trade from weakness you get less back.

[TimberKat]

Since you quoted me I assume you assume that I meant going into the tax. I don’t.

Earlier in the text string, Shangrila correctly pointed out that it was possible to go over the lux, but that was posted a couple posts ago and didn’t make my quote. I just wanted to point out some of the mechanics for that option.

I think there are three.

A. Trade Anderson and Milton and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. stay under the lux
B. Trade Milton, Troy Brown Jr and WMJ, and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. go over the lux.
C. Don’t trade for Tyus .. stay under the lux.

Personally I think C > A > B, but B makes us a slightly stronger team this year.

Good way to summarize. I expect Connelly to at least do A or other better trades before deadline. I like B>A>C. Because you don't get a run like this often. It's the 3rd time in Twolves history.

In 2001-2002, Wolves had the best record at the all star break and limp to the finish line with 50 wins. Follow by a first round loss. It's a little unexpected that we are doing so well but got to take advantage of it.

Ironically, we loss Billups, a PG, the next year. It was painful to watch him and Bobby Jackson help their team win while we stuck with Hudson. Funny how the problem was compounded by a Duke PG that didn't work out - Will Avery. Somehow history seems to repeat itself unless you try hard to breakout of it.

[shrink]

Since you quoted me I assume you assume that I meant going into the tax. I don’t.

Earlier in the text string, Shangrila correctly pointed out that it was possible to go over the lux, but that was posted a couple posts ago and didn’t make my quote. I just wanted to point out some of the mechanics for that option.

I think there are three.

A. Trade Anderson and Milton and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. stay under the lux
B. Trade Milton, Troy Brown Jr and WMJ, and WAS/MEM 2nd for Tyus .. go over the lux.
C. Don’t trade for Tyus .. stay under the lux.

Personally I think C > A > B, but B makes us a slightly stronger team this year.

If you go C you need a plan for not having Tyus. There are alternate guards, but again Mike has one or two good years left (assuming he stays healthy, resigns with us, and doesn’t quality slide due to age,) and then we have no one behind him, with no ability to get anyone behind him after this year. Is a Monte Morris someone you trust with the Ant window? Or are you gonna move Karl next year? C is the path that says we are all in on the chip this year, and we believe Kyle is vital to that, but have no plans to contend next year. The reason is now we are moving KAT from a position of weakness (kinda like the Jimmy trade,) and when you trade from weakness you get less back.

Again, personally, I think if we even acquired Tyus, it’s unreasonable to expect the owners to pay for both Conley and Tyus going forward. Sure, it would be nice to have strong players at every position, but the whole CBA is designed to prevent teams from just buying good players for every role. Connelly probably thought last year he would fix that problem, but first, thr salary slot went to Naz, and later, his back up plan with Shake Milton didn’t work. This summer, I think it’s either Conley OR Tyus, and Conley has been too valuable to let go.

I agree, finding a PG down the road will be difficult, especially with few avenues to get one. Can Ant, or NAW, or Clark become one? Can we find a gem elsewhere that develops into a guy. If Ant becomes the playmaker we hope, he really only needs to defend and make wide open three’s.

[Neeva]

Is Tyus a Connelly type of PG?