2020 NBA Draft Prospects: Thread II

[shangrila]

This is the important part of what he said:

Now, are there some issues here with his potential fit with D’Angelo Russell? Yeah, maybe I mean, they’re both kind of ball-in-hand point guards and haven’t been too enthusiastic about playing defense. But I think because of their heights, I do think it’s possible for them to play together, if they can kind of work out how to be comfortable playing off the ball some of the time.

I don’t necessarily see that as a as a deal breaker for them, especially at the point they’re at, which it’s not like they’re not trying to refine their chemistry for a run at the championship right now. Right? They’re just trying to build up enough talent to have a halfway decent team. And until you get to that point, I think, I think you don’t really worry about fit issues and things like that as much. You’re just they’re still in town accumulation face, and they need to continue that.

This has been my argument for awhile now. And I think that logic frustrates some people, as I think the perception is that a No. 1 pick needs to stay with that franchise for their entire career. Here's the list of No. 1 picks to play for one franchise, going back 20 seasons: Zion Williamson, DeAndre Ayton, Ben Simmons, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, Yao Ming. Going back another decade, the only player you add is Tim Duncan. And I believe the next player added to the list is David Robinson.

Whoever is drafted at No. 1 is probably going to change teams at some point. Worrying about roster fit seems pretty pointless to me.

The entire argument against Wiseman was fit though wasn't it? I think he has the highest potential of the three we've been discussing AND is the most NBA ready. If we don't simply want to be a development team for the #1 pick before they go somewhere else, it makes more sense to pick Wiseman, not only for his ability to have a noticeable impact in his first contract (if not rookie season) and help the team WIN. Which is exactly what they need to do to stop KAT/DLo from going somewhere else after this contract.

In my opinion picking Ball or Edwards would pretty much guarantee we are a lottery team this next season and in 4 years maybe a team competing for the 8th spot in the West (with no real chance to make a deep run). Which would most definitely mean KAT/DLo are gone after their current contracts and we are back to yet another rebuild.

With Wiseman I see the chance to actually build a team that can contend, maybe not for a championship (there is so much that needs to go right for that to happen), but realistic potential to reach the Western Conference Finals by Wiseman's 4th year.

Again, I may be wrong about Wiseman, but the main argument against him was fit, so to have that be brushed off so easily when it comes to Ball seems weird. Ball needs to develop his game WAAAAAAY more than Wiseman just to make a positive contribution to an NBA team, let alone help a team become a consistent winner.

The issue with "fit" is how Wiseman and Towns can co-exist defensively. That's easier to project with Ball because his height allows him to adequately defend 2s (at least in theory). Unless you believe either Wiseman or KAT can guard the perimeter (I personally don't) then you're stuck with one of them playing out of position on that end, hence where the argument against Wiseman comes in. Offensively you can make just about anything work so any of the top 3 guys could fit in here.

And before anyone says it, I realise Ball isn't a good or even average defender at this point. Nor am I saying that Wiseman is or projects to be a bad one. It's just about how they fit with our two main guys moving forward.

[urinesane]

Ball hasn't shown the ability to be a good defender though, has he? It's all hypotheticals based on his size.

Wiseman has shown the ability to defend up until this point at least from the rim protection standpoint and with his length and athleticism, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he couldn't develop into a serviceable perimeter defender.

Ball has a lot of questions to answer in his game and most of the assumptions are based off of physical measurements, not how he has actually used his physical attributes.

I'm bored of taking chances on guys that look like they have a ton of potential, but haven't proven it before being drafted, only to never fulfill any of that potential. Wiseman has insane potential, but ultimately it's the difference in his floor AND ceiling compared to Ball and Edwards that makes him the right choice in my mind.

Ball and Edwards are far more likely to be playing overseas in 7 years than having ever been all-stars in the NBA imo.

[shangrila]

We've had a chance to go around the horn with trade scenarios and alternative prospects... Wiseman, Ball, and Edwards are talked about the most. Avdija and Okungwu in bucket #2.

What are the opinions on ...
1. Player Fit
a. Wiseman
b. Edwards
c. Ball

2. Position of Need
a. Wiseman
b. Edwards
c. Ball

3. Player Potential (say 3 years up the road)
a. Wiseman
b. Edwards
c. Ball

In my uneducated opinion ... Ball seems to be "he is what he is" and thats skilled ball dominant PG with size, but weak shooter, OK scorer, and suspect defense. Edwards type guy could have a dramatic impact due to his size/strength and ability to finish, but also suspect defense and motor. Wiseman is a potential 7' freak that can immediately help with rebounding and defense, but he still a more raw-type player that could go many different ways.

I've been starting to roll around back towards Wiseman ... I remember KG was a high school kid we rolled the dice and turned out ok. My primary concern (also one of KATS weaknesses) is his ability to defend away from the basket in order to co-exist with KAT. Offensively, more doable. Still, Wiseman is already a good passer, decent FT shooter, decent ball handler, very good athlete that can hit the outlets, and run the floor.

In terms of fit and position of need, both are Edwards. He doesn't overlap with either Russell or Towns on either end and could very easily fulfill a secondary scorer role long term while playing off both KAT and DLo. That kind of fit, and his shot creation abilities which the most recent playoffs showed are incredibly important, should make him a natural selection for us.

Unfortunately all his flaws drag him down. There's the lack of effort on both ends and the poor IQ, but also a few rumours about the kinds of people he associates with. So in terms of who's the best in 3 years...I'd probably go Wiseman. He's the safe bet because his floor is solid starting C, even if he's only in that Tyson Chandler kind of role. But he does have the potential to grow beyond that as well, whereas both Ball and Edwards have far lower floors. I doubt either is out of the league but I think LaMelo has a legitimate shot at being a taller Brandon Jennings and we just got through with what Edwards could be (Wiggins).

However Wiseman's fit defensively with Towns is the issue there so...yeah, this draft sucks. Why this year, of all the years, did we have to move up? Couldn't have gotten Zion or Ja last year? Or Simmons a few years back? Ugh.

Personally I'm buying stock in Okoro right now. Seems like the kind of guy with a high floor but an incredibly high ceiling as well. He's already got a lot going for him on both ends and while no one wants to go through another poor shooting season with a rookie...I think he's worth that. He's got the work ethic to improve, he's got the passion on both ends, a surprising amount of playmaking (i.e. potential to shoulder more of the offence) and has both the physicality and finesse to be an amazing finisher in the league.

[thinktank]

I agree. Rosas is going to take the most valuable asset he can get at 1, should he not find an amenable partner to trade down. He may even prefer 1 to trading down. It doesn’t matter what the players on his team think or feel or want. The players don’t run the team, nor should they.

If he can't find an amenable partner to trade down, is it safe to say that none of the players are really that valuable?

Could be.

I’m one of those people who thinks we rarely know what’s going on behind the scenes.

Sometimes we do. Conversely, often, the popular narratives don’t end up happening.

Consider that all most of these guys have spent their lives working their tails off to get to where they are. Gupta you have to respect.

“Gupta, a recent computer science and electrical engineering graduate of MIT who was working as a software engineer for ESPN at the time, stuck around when the talk was over to chat with Morey one-on-one...”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.phillymag.com/news/2017/01/31/sachin-gupta-trades-sam-hinkie/%3Famp%3D1

He was the man behind Hinkie. Just sayin.

[thinktank]

I agree. Rosas is going to take the most valuable asset he can get at 1, should he not find an amenable partner to trade down. He may even prefer 1 to trading down. It doesn’t matter what the players on his team think or feel or want. The players don’t run the team, nor should they.

This is the NBA. The players do run the team whether they should or not. Unhappy players is a recipe for disaster.

No it’s not. Not always. Management is weighing the risk reward. Russell is not Butler. Even if Russell would be unhappy, he’s still not Jimmy Butler, for example. What if Lonzo Ball becomes a HOF player? We could easily be making a horrible decision by passing on Ball.

[Dewey]

We've had a chance to go around the horn with trade scenarios and alternative prospects... Wiseman, Ball, and Edwards are talked about the most. Avdija and Okungwu in bucket #2.

What are the opinions on ...
1. Player Fit
a. Wiseman
b. Edwards
c. Ball

2. Position of Need
a. Wiseman
b. Edwards
c. Ball

3. Player Potential (say 3 years up the road)
a. Wiseman
b. Edwards
c. Ball

In my uneducated opinion ... Ball seems to be "he is what he is" and thats skilled ball dominant PG with size, but weak shooter, OK scorer, and suspect defense. Edwards type guy could have a dramatic impact due to his size/strength and ability to finish, but also suspect defense and motor. Wiseman is a potential 7' freak that can immediately help with rebounding and defense, but he still a more raw-type player that could go many different ways.

I've been starting to roll around back towards Wiseman ... I remember KG was a high school kid we rolled the dice and turned out ok. My primary concern (also one of KATS weaknesses) is his ability to defend away from the basket in order to co-exist with KAT. Offensively, more doable. Still, Wiseman is already a good passer, decent FT shooter, decent ball handler, very good athlete that can hit the outlets, and run the floor.

In terms of fit and position of need, both are Edwards. He doesn't overlap with either Russell or Towns on either end and could very easily fulfill a secondary scorer role long term while playing off both KAT and DLo. That kind of fit, and his shot creation abilities which the most recent playoffs showed are incredibly important, should make him a natural selection for us.

Unfortunately all his flaws drag him down. There's the lack of effort on both ends and the poor IQ, but also a few rumours about the kinds of people he associates with. So in terms of who's the best in 3 years...I'd probably go Wiseman. He's the safe bet because his floor is solid starting C, even if he's only in that Tyson Chandler kind of role. But he does have the potential to grow beyond that as well, whereas both Ball and Edwards have far lower floors. I doubt either is out of the league but I think LaMelo has a legitimate shot at being a taller Brandon Jennings and we just got through with what Edwards could be (Wiggins).

However Wiseman's fit defensively with Towns is the issue there so...yeah, this draft sucks. Why this year, of all the years, did we have to move up? Couldn't have gotten Zion or Ja last year? Or Simmons a few years back? Ugh.

Personally I'm buying stock in Okoro right now. Seems like the kind of guy with a high floor but an incredibly high ceiling as well. He's already got a lot going for him on both ends and while no one wants to go through another poor shooting season with a rookie...I think he's worth that. He's got the work ethic to improve, he's got the passion on both ends, a surprising amount of playmaking (i.e. potential to shoulder more of the offence) and has both the physicality and finesse to be an amazing finisher in the league.

Okoro, Avdija, and Okungwu are three guys right outside the hype-zone that could be solid NBA guys. Okoro does have some "Gamer" in him for sure. If we are not hot to trot on a guy like Wiseman/Ball/Edwards, then clearly we'll position for one of Okoro, Avdija, or Okungwu IMO.

Stock: I'm not buying into Ball ... flip-flopping on Edwards ... but growing more comfortable with Wiseman if selected.

From a front office perspective: I'm confident the Wolves are looking to capitalize on trading down to acquire a player asset (SF or PF) and targeting Okoro, Okungwu, or Avdija (pending player asset). I'm just not sure the #1 FRP has that value this year, so then I bounce back to Wiseman. Would take some balls to just take Okoro #1, but he is clearly an NBA caliber player.

[shangrila]

Ball hasn't shown the ability to be a good defender though, has he? It's all hypotheticals based on his size.

...which I said in my last sentence.

Wiseman has shown the ability to defend up until this point at least from the rim protection standpoint and with his length and athleticism, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he couldn't develop into a serviceable perimeter defender.

It could happen, but it's not likely. Defensive technique and effort can be improved on easier than improving someone's footspeed.

Ball has a lot of questions to answer in his game and most of the assumptions are based off of physical measurements, not how he has actually used his physical attributes.

I'm assuming you're talking defensively? Offensively his physical tools don't get brought up too often, aside from being tall enough to see over the defence but that's a common comment made about tall PGs. Otherwise his physical tools are fairly mediocre and his allure comes from his skills and IQ.

Defensively, yeah, you need to project. But he has the footspeed and length to keep up with 2s at minimum and likely 1s as well. If he can get stronger so he doesn't get destroyed on screens then, physically, he should be fine.

I'm bored of taking chances on guys that look like they have a ton of potential, but haven't proven it before being drafted, only to never fulfill any of that potential. Wiseman has insane potential, but ultimately it's the difference in his floor AND ceiling compared to Ball and Edwards that makes him the right choice in my mind.

Unfortunately this draft doesn't have any proven potential guys so that's all you've got to pick from. Even Wiseman could easily cap out as a Hassan Whiteside kind of player. It's just one of those years I guess, which is of course why we moved up now.

Ball and Edwards are far more likely to be playing overseas in 7 years than having ever been all-stars in the NBA imo.

Disagree. They'll put up stats on some crap team and get voted in by coaches who'll blame all the shortcomings on the team. It's what happened with KAT and plenty of other guys before him.

[Baseline81]

Because it's slow right now, here's the latest from NBASupes on Hawksquawk:

Update:

Indy/Minny

It seems like a major breakdown has happened with Indy/Minny due to the inclusion of T.J. Warren. Seems like they do not want to move him if they move Turner and it doesn't seem up for discussion. This one hurt Minny because the LaMelo Ball trade up market is now nil for the value Minny sees as proper value and it seems like they will be stuck at #1. He said, watch for them to look at Deni, Obi, Anthony, LaMelo, Oyneka, and Tyrese.

Indy/GS

If Ball falls to GS. This is where Indy/GS could do a blockbuster deal. He was told the talks are around The Iguodala TPE in particular using Warren/Goga in it. Also, T.J. McConnell was mentioned. The centerpiece is GS choice of Sabonis or Turner. This will include BOTH 2020 #2 overall and MIN 2021 1st as well. Seems high on both ends and it is because Wiggins is considered a negative asset and Indy's willingness to add an asset like MIN 2021 1st is noticeable as well. This would be a massive blockbuster but this would build up Golden State's bench to extreme levels.

He mentioned this deal is only available if Ball is available at #2. I asked if MIN takes him, could we see a deal with Ball still going to Indy and he said it doesn't seem like so. Indy feels the value they are willing to offer is more than enough. Basically, if MIN drafts Ball, he will play with MIN or be traded elsewhere but not to Indy considering the current options.

[urinesane]

I agree. Rosas is going to take the most valuable asset he can get at 1, should he not find an amenable partner to trade down. He may even prefer 1 to trading down. It doesn’t matter what the players on his team think or feel or want. The players don’t run the team, nor should they.

This is the NBA. The players do run the team whether they should or not. Unhappy players is a recipe for disaster.

No it’s not. Not always. Management is weighing the risk reward. Russell is not Butler. Even if Russell would be unhappy, he’s still not Jimmy Butler, for example. What if Lonzo Ball becomes a HOF player? We could easily be making a horrible decision by passing on Ball.

You can literally say that about anyone.

Also, I assume you meant LaMelo...

[urinesane]

Unfortunately this draft doesn't have any proven potential guys so that's all you've got to pick from. Even Wiseman could easily cap out as a Hassan Whiteside kind of player. It's just one of those years I guess, which is of course why we moved up now.

Which would be his floor, right? If his floor is Whiteside, I'm 100% down for rolling the dice on Wiseman.

Seriously, I think a lot of people are going to get hit with a cold splash of reality when Ball starts playing in the NBA and he will be written off by many of the people hyping him now by the end of his rookie year (which they will then start projecting their fantasies onto the new wave of shiny prospects coming out of college).

Size still wins championships and if we are counting on KAT to be that for the Wolves, we simply won't compete with the better teams in the NBA. I think Wiseman and KAT give other teams way more problems than advantages and I'm totally willing to concede that minor advantage to other teams, because are big men really the biggest factor in having good perimeter defense?

I think having a major rebounding advantage on both ends, plus a legit shot blocking threat (which the Wolves have not had since KG left) more than balances out the weakness of our bigs to defend on the perimeter. It's not like every team excels in that area anyway or are able to take full advantage of that weakness.

[Baseline81]

Shams must have known I asked about this earlier today:

Read on Twitter

[thinktank]

This is the NBA. The players do run the team whether they should or not. Unhappy players is a recipe for disaster.

No it’s not. Not always. Management is weighing the risk reward. Russell is not Butler. Even if Russell would be unhappy, he’s still not Jimmy Butler, for example. What if Lonzo Ball becomes a HOF player? We could easily be making a horrible decision by passing on Ball.

You can literally say that about anyone.

Also, I assume you meant LaMelo...

Yes and yes.

But seriously, if you think Ball is good, you don’t pass on him because you have Russell. You take him.

[urinesane]

No it’s not. Not always. Management is weighing the risk reward. Russell is not Butler. Even if Russell would be unhappy, he’s still not Jimmy Butler, for example. What if Lonzo Ball becomes a HOF player? We could easily be making a horrible decision by passing on Ball.

You can literally say that about anyone.

Also, I assume you meant LaMelo...

Yes and yes.

But seriously, if you think Ball is good, you don’t pass on him because you have Russell. You take him.

Same with Wiseman and KAT, which has been 98% of the reasons given on this board to not draft Wiseman.

[Neeva]

You can literally say that about anyone.

Also, I assume you meant LaMelo...

Yes and yes.

But seriously, if you think Ball is good, you don’t pass on him because you have Russell. You take him.

Same with Wiseman and KAT, which has been 98% of the reasons given on this board to not draft Wiseman.

OR because big men that can’t shoot or assist aren’t very valuable in the league right now.

[urinesane]

Yes and yes.

But seriously, if you think Ball is good, you don’t pass on him because you have Russell. You take him.

Same with Wiseman and KAT, which has been 98% of the reasons given on this board to not draft Wiseman.

OR because big men that can’t shoot or assist aren’t very valuable in the league right now.

Watch on YouTube

Shooting and passing looks pretty solid for a player with his size imo.

His shooting form looks lightyears of that third grader push shot Ball does.

From the video above, what makes you think he can't shoot or pass the ball at least at an average level?

[shangrila]

Unfortunately this draft doesn't have any proven potential guys so that's all you've got to pick from. Even Wiseman could easily cap out as a Hassan Whiteside kind of player. It's just one of those years I guess, which is of course why we moved up now.

Which would be his floor, right? If his floor is Whiteside, I'm 100% down for rolling the dice on Wiseman.

Seriously, I think a lot of people are going to get hit with a cold splash of reality when Ball starts playing in the NBA and he will be written off by many of the people hyping him now by the end of his rookie year (which they will then start projecting their fantasies onto the new wave of shiny prospects coming out of college).

Size still wins championships and if we are counting on KAT to be that for the Wolves, we simply won't compete with the better teams in the NBA. I think Wiseman and KAT give other teams way more problems than advantages and I'm totally willing to concede that minor advantage to other teams, because are big men really the biggest factor in having good perimeter defense?

I think having a major rebounding advantage on both ends, plus a legit shot blocking threat (which the Wolves have not had since KG left) more than balances out the weakness of our bigs to defend on the perimeter. It's not like every team excels in that area anyway or are able to take full advantage of that weakness.

...no, I said he could easily cap out as that kind of player. Honestly, given this and your last post, are you even reading mine? Or just skimming it?

His floor is Nerlens Noel, i.e. a career journeyman backup. His physical tools alone will keep him in the NBA to some degree but the idea that the absolute lowest his career could ever go is as a average starting centre is absurd.

[Baseline81]

Watch on YouTube

Shooting and passing looks pretty solid for a player with his size imo.

His shooting form looks lightyears of that third grader push shot Ball does.

From the video above, what makes you think he can't shoot or pass the ball at least at an average level?

You're going to point to a highlight video on YouTube?

How about we actually use stats? In his three games at Memphis (69 total minutes, 23 MPG), he attempted only one 3-pointer and missed it. In terms of his passing, he averaged 0.3 assists per game (raw number of 1).

[urinesane]

Watch on YouTube

Shooting and passing looks pretty solid for a player with his size imo.

His shooting form looks lightyears of that third grader push shot Ball does.

From the video above, what makes you think he can't shoot or pass the ball at least at an average level?

You're going to point to a highlight video on YouTube?

How about we actually use stats? In his three games at Memphis (69 total minutes, 23 MPG), he attempted only one 3-pointer and missed it. In terms of his passing, he averaged 0.3 assists per game (raw number of 1).

Lol, so you'd rather try to extrapolate his ability based on stats from 3 college games, but I can't look at his shooting form in highlights and make an observation? Basically in one sentence you criticize me for using highlights as a point of information and then in the next you decide to use the smallest sample size possible?

Well, I guess he missed that three pointer, so he couldn't possibly develop any sort shot from that range in the future. Plus, in three games he didn't average an assist, so that's out the window too. Though outside of Jokic, how many Centers in the NBA have impressive assist numbers? What sort of assists per game would he need to put up for you to say he's a good enough passer for your standards?

I look at his awareness in that video on the assists he did make and it looks like there's potential. Most of the time, passing didn't make sense, because he could just dunk it easily.

How about this, rather than looking at a tiny sample size of games or strictly highlight videos. What in his shooting form gives you cause for concern ? Feel free to show me a video of all his misses if that makes it more relevant to you. Unless his form completely breaks down when he misses shots, I still think his form points to pretty solid potential to develop a consistent jumper at the NBA level.

Ball on the other hand will either have to overhaul his shooting form or will struggle to have any sort of consistency scoring outside of the painted area. Rubio had a much better shooting form when he came into the league and it took a long time for him to work on it to get it to it's current point.

[urinesane]

Unfortunately this draft doesn't have any proven potential guys so that's all you've got to pick from. Even Wiseman could easily cap out as a Hassan Whiteside kind of player. It's just one of those years I guess, which is of course why we moved up now.

Which would be his floor, right? If his floor is Whiteside, I'm 100% down for rolling the dice on Wiseman.

Seriously, I think a lot of people are going to get hit with a cold splash of reality when Ball starts playing in the NBA and he will be written off by many of the people hyping him now by the end of his rookie year (which they will then start projecting their fantasies onto the new wave of shiny prospects coming out of college).

Size still wins championships and if we are counting on KAT to be that for the Wolves, we simply won't compete with the better teams in the NBA. I think Wiseman and KAT give other teams way more problems than advantages and I'm totally willing to concede that minor advantage to other teams, because are big men really the biggest factor in having good perimeter defense?

I think having a major rebounding advantage on both ends, plus a legit shot blocking threat (which the Wolves have not had since KG left) more than balances out the weakness of our bigs to defend on the perimeter. It's not like every team excels in that area anyway or are able to take full advantage of that weakness.

...no, I said he could easily cap out as that kind of player. Honestly, given this and your last post, are you even reading mine? Or just skimming it?

His floor is Nerlens Noel, i.e. a career journeyman backup. His physical tools alone will keep him in the NBA to some degree but the idea that the absolute lowest his career could ever go is as a average starting centre is absurd.

He could easily cap out? What kind of statement is that even? Any player could technically cap out at any level with that sort of logic.

So you're saying that he may not reach his potential... that's true of EVERY player with potential.

If his floor is journeyman backup, what's his ceiling? Obviously, any player could "cap out" in between their floor and ceiling... that kind of goes without saying doesn't it?

[KGdaBom]

The entire argument against Wiseman was fit though wasn't it? I think he has the highest potential of the three we've been discussing AND is the most NBA ready. If we don't simply want to be a development team for the #1 pick before they go somewhere else, it makes more sense to pick Wiseman, not only for his ability to have a noticeable impact in his first contract (if not rookie season) and help the team WIN. Which is exactly what they need to do to stop KAT/DLo from going somewhere else after this contract.

In my opinion picking Ball or Edwards would pretty much guarantee we are a lottery team this next season and in 4 years maybe a team competing for the 8th spot in the West (with no real chance to make a deep run). Which would most definitely mean KAT/DLo are gone after their current contracts and we are back to yet another rebuild.

With Wiseman I see the chance to actually build a team that can contend, maybe not for a championship (there is so much that needs to go right for that to happen), but realistic potential to reach the Western Conference Finals by Wiseman's 4th year.

Again, I may be wrong about Wiseman, but the main argument against him was fit, so to have that be brushed off so easily when it comes to Ball seems weird. Ball needs to develop his game WAAAAAAY more than Wiseman just to make a positive contribution to an NBA team, let alone help a team become a consistent winner.

Do you think Wiseman and Towns can play on the floor together? If so, who defends the opposing PF, likely a player on the perimeter?

EDIT: See shangrila's post on the next page.

I think one of Wiseman or KAT will need to suck it up and guard the PF. Defense is mostly effort. They both have the physical skills to be decent at it. On the other hand who is going to guard KAT on the perimeter. Answer nobody. Wiseman has decent shooting form. I think he will develop into a solid 3 point shooter in the NBA.