Poll: Who should the Wolves take with the #1 overall pick?

[C.lupus]

Bunch of nerds created epic nerd models to rank the prospects.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analytics-Models-and-the-NBA-Draft-5021/

Here's their composite ranking:

Spoiler:

COMP Prospect
1 D'Angelo Russell
2 Jahlil Okafor
3 Karl Towns
4 Justise Winslow
5 Stanley Johnson
5 Kevon Looney
7 Myles Turner
7 Tyus Jones
9 Delon Wright
10 Frank Kaminsky
11 Christian Wood
12 Bobby Portis
13 Cameron Payne
14 Kelly Oubre
15 Jerian Grant
16 Willie Cauley-Stein
17 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
18 Chris McCullough
19 R.J. Hunter
20 Montrezl Harrell
21 Sam Dekker
22 Richaun Holmes
23 Robert Upshaw
24 Trey Lyles
25 Jarell Martin
26 Terry Rozier
27 Justin Anderson
28 Wesley Saunders
28 Jordan Mickey
30 Vince Hunter

Note Looney, Jones, Wright, and Christian Wood in the top 11.

LOL at this one by Jesse Fischer (that's right Jesse, I'm calling you out):

Spoiler:

1. Justise Winslow
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. Frank Kaminsky
4. Stanley Johnson
5. Jahlil Okafor
6. Karl Towns
7. Delon Wright
8. Willie Cauley-Stein
9. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
10. Tyus Jones
11. Jerian Grant
12. Kevon Looney
13. Sam Dekker
14. Myles Turner

It would be very unusual to see the top 4 players in a draft not include at least 1 of the top 2 picks. Closest I can think of would be 2008, but Rose would only be excluded due to injury, not talent.

I'm not against analytics being used to help inform decisions. Heck, my Masters thesis was developing a predictive computer model (forest ecology but the same statistical principles apply). My problem is the misuse of these analytical models. I know that, before you make your model public, you need to thoroughly test your model, teak it, and test it some more.

When I see results like this one that go against EVERY basketball website, scout, and front office, it tells me the person who developed that model is either A. very lazy, B. knows nothing about basketball, or C. both.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'd like to see how these models fared against the past 5 drafts.

[Quentin]

Russell is who I would have voted for. Went with Towns.

[AQuintus]

When I see results like this one that go against EVERY basketball website, scout, and front office, it tells me the person who developed that model is either A. very lazy, B. knows nothing about basketball, or C. both.

The problem with all of those models is that they're all box score based. That presents a bunch of problems, especially in the draft context: 1) not all box scores are created equally, especially in college - they're heavily dependant on teammates and schedule, 2) they don't really show defense (a big part of the reason Russell, Okafor, and Tyus Jones are so high), and 3) they don't factor in potential at all (pretty important when evaluating draft prospects).

They're fairly interesting, and a decent way to tell who the best offensive players in college were, but they're not very useful for draft purposes.

Edit:

Also, Jesse Fischer used VORP, which is based on BPM, and those are the two stats that Philly fans constantly used all year to say that Noel is much better than Wiggins. This really goes to show that VORP and BPM are crap.

[AQuintus]

. Okafor has a higher TS, and if you remove free throw efficiency Okafor dramatically more efficient.
Towns scores more points per shot because that stat heavily favors free throws, TS is the better stat.

Why not include FTs? They're a part of offense. Even if you think that FTs are weighted too highly in that stat (and they might be) and want to use TS%, Towns and Okafor were close enough in TS% that Towns' advantages in passing and being able to score against pressure make him the better offensive player.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'm not against analytics being used to help inform decisions. Heck, my Masters thesis was developing a predictive computer model (forest ecology but the same statistical principles apply).

"I predict the trees will grow....(everybody leans forward in their chairs)...up!"

[Crazy-Canuck]

Another take on Okafor.

Offense

Like it or not, Okafor is not going to have this luxury of dominating the post in the NBA. It’s just not how the game is played anymore and the difference between going up against a 7-foot athletic beast-type Marcin Gortat every night compared to a 6-foot-9 slender post from Clemson is literally night and day. However, what Okafor possesses that separates him from the other former hyped up bigs is not just the skill set that everyone sees on the surface (he won’t blow you away athletically and you won’t see any SportsCenter type blocks) but his ability to do everything with what I call ‘The Extra Half-Second.’

This basically means that in every situation, Okafor is able to do things a half of a second quicker than the defender is used to reacting to. This is what makes Marc Gasol so dominant, he can’t jump much higher than any of you out there reading this article, but his high level IQ and extra half-second ability is what has made him the best center in the NBA. Okafor has this same ability. It’s very rare, especially for a 19-year-old kid.

In the NBA, there are certain offensive movements that reign supreme: Pick-and-roll situations, player movement/ball movement Spurs flow, and high post cerebral big allocations.

In pick-and-roll situations, Okafor finished at a points per possession rate of 1.588. That is extremely high level. Okafor’s soft hands, which allow him to catch everything thrown his way, coupled with his ability to quickly get out of the point of attack in ball screen situations will translate very well to the NBA.

Defense

The area that is continually questioned in Okafor’s game is his defensive ability and whether he will he be able to guard elite centers in the NBA. In isolation situations in college, Okafor was giving up an adjusted field goal percentage of 44.6 percent to his opponents and ranked in the lower 70 percent of college basketball in isolation defense. That is a glaring statistic. How is he going to be able to defend elite NBA bigs if he can’t stop a Kinesiology major from Virginia Tech? His foot quickness and overall explosiveness are not going to be what Okafor hangs his hat on.

But once again, his high level IQ and 'half-second' ability is what will make him a better-than-average defender in the league. He’s never going to be Marc Gasol on the defensive end, but he has the potential to flirt with that type of ability. Once again, one of the most important aspects for a big is not only how they function offensively in the pick-and-roll situations, but also how they are able to defend it. In pick-and-roll situations at Duke, Okafor held opponents to 0.677 points per possession rate and a percent score rate of only 25.8 percent.

If during the interviews with coach k and Ok, it comes out that Ok was asked to ease up to not get into foul trouble, then I take him no.1.

[Feilong]

Thibs + Towns and i will forget every stupid decision Flip made so far.
Btw Thibs and Towns have the same agent.

[C.lupus]

I'm not against analytics being used to help inform decisions. Heck, my Masters thesis was developing a predictive computer model (forest ecology but the same statistical principles apply).

"I predict the trees will grow....(everybody leans forward in their chairs)...up!"

Ah, but which trees will grow up faster at this particular location and which trees are more apt to be eaten or blow over or burn?

[C.lupus]

When I see results like this one that go against EVERY basketball website, scout, and front office, it tells me the person who developed that model is either A. very lazy, B. knows nothing about basketball, or C. both.

The problem with all of those models is that they're all box score based. That presents a bunch of problems, especially in the draft context: 1) not all box scores are created equally, especially in college - they're heavily dependant on teammates and schedule, 2) they don't really show defense (a big part of the reason Russell, Okafor, and Tyus Jones are so high), and 3) they don't factor in potential at all (pretty important when evaluating draft prospects).

They're fairly interesting, and a decent way to tell who the best offensive players in college were, but they're not very useful for draft purposes.

Edit:

Also, Jesse Fischer used VORP, which is based on BPM, and those are the two stats that Philly fans constantly used all year to say that Noel is much better than Wiggins. This really goes to show that VORP and BPM are crap.

Yep. Models are generally interesting and they tell you something. But most people want to extrapolate or misinterpret what the model is really saying to try to make different statements that are usually crap.

And, yes, garbage in, garbage out. VORP is not at all useful in the way most people want to use it.

[Worm Guts]

. Okafor has a higher TS, and if you remove free throw efficiency Okafor dramatically more efficient.
Towns scores more points per shot because that stat heavily favors free throws, TS is the better stat.

Why not include FTs? They're a part of offense. Even if you think that FTs are weighted too highly in that stat (and they might be) and want to use TS%, Towns and Okafor were close enough in TS% that Towns' advantages in passing and being able to score against pressure make him the better offensive player.

You have to include free throws if your looking at the overall picture, but if you're trying to isolate a skillset then you don't want to include other factors.

[mondry]

. Okafor has a higher TS, and if you remove free throw efficiency Okafor dramatically more efficient.
Towns scores more points per shot because that stat heavily favors free throws, TS is the better stat.

Why not include FTs? They're a part of offense. Even if you think that FTs are weighted too highly in that stat (and they might be) and want to use TS%, Towns and Okafor were close enough in TS% that Towns' advantages in passing and being able to score against pressure make him the better offensive player.

You have to include free throws if your looking at the overall picture, but if you're trying to isolate a skillset then you don't want to include other factors.

I guess I just don't see why you want to isolate it unless you're trying to help prop up okafor through a bias. It's a fact NBA big men grinding in the post get fouled, often times on purpose to prevent the easy bucket and they have to make their free throws. Honestly if I was looking for the best post game I'd look at which player was getting fouled and sent to the line more as it means they were able to put the defender in such a bad situation fouling becomes the best option.

[Worm Guts]

Why not include FTs? They're a part of offense. Even if you think that FTs are weighted too highly in that stat (and they might be) and want to use TS%, Towns and Okafor were close enough in TS% that Towns' advantages in passing and being able to score against pressure make him the better offensive player.

You have to include free throws if your looking at the overall picture, but if you're trying to isolate a skillset then you don't want to include other factors.

I guess I just don't see why you want to isolate it unless you're trying to help prop up okafor through a bias. It's a fact NBA big men grinding in the post get fouled, often times on purpose to prevent the easy bucket and they have to make their free throws. Honestly if I was looking for the best post game I'd look at which player was getting fouled and sent to the line more as it means they were able to put the defender in such a bad situation fouling becomes the best option.

I just think you want to understand more. You want to know the strengths and weaknesses of a players game. We already know Towns is the better FT shooter, but who is better at creating their own, who draws more fouls and who scores better from the field are also things we want to know.

[Devilzsidewalk]

I'm not against analytics being used to help inform decisions. Heck, my Masters thesis was developing a predictive computer model (forest ecology but the same statistical principles apply).

"I predict the trees will grow....(everybody leans forward in their chairs)...up!"

Ah, but which trees will grow up faster at this particular location and which trees are more apt to be eaten or blow over or burn?

The ones with a can-do attitude will grow faster, the delicious ones are more apt to be eaten, the quitters are more apt to be blown over and the ones on fire are more apt to burn. I assume your model came to the same conclusions.

[AQuintus]

You have to include free throws if your looking at the overall picture, but if you're trying to isolate a skillset then you don't want to include other factors.

Who's trying to isolate a skillset? We were talking about who is better at offense (which is the overall picture).

Either way, the Vantage data combined with the data that Mercgold3 posted combines to show that in post-scoring they're not that far off.

Towns - 51.4% shooting, better when contested
Okafor - 55.8% shooting, better catching and immediately shooting

With the data we have is presented together, is suggests that Okafor is better in the post, but no where near as much as their respective reputations would suggest, and the biggest difference in their FG% is probably due to Okafor being great at catching and finishing combined with having a much better PG setting him up.

[AQuintus]

Defense

But once again, his high level IQ and 'half-second' ability is what will make him a better-than-average defender in the league.

The problem with this analysis is that he didn't show that extra "'half-second' ability" on defense this year. If anything, he was consistently a half-second slow.

[Worm Guts]

You have to include free throws if your looking at the overall picture, but if you're trying to isolate a skillset then you don't want to include other factors.

Who's trying to isolate a skillset?

.

The article that you linked us to.

[sfernald]

http://www.vantagesports.com/story/VWAbmiYAAMkY3uq0/vantage-scouting-report-okafor-vs.-towns

Great data.

OKAFOR: 0.92 POINTS AGAINST PER SHOT, 42.0 OVERALL FG% AGAINST, 2.07 BLOCKS PER 100 CHANCES
TOWNS: 0.74 POINTS AGAINST PER SHOT, 33.2 OVERALL FG% AGAINST, 4.05 BLOCKS PER 100 CHANCES


Towns has a far higher Switch% at 20.2 percent than Okafor (10.9 percent) and has far fewer Closeout Points Allowed per 100 Opportunities at just 0.91 compared to 2.2 for Jahlil (draft prospect average = 1.6). The Kentucky big man is far more mobile on the perimeter and can throw off opponents’ shots with his deceptive lateral agility and closeout speed.

The switch and closeout edge is the key. He seems to be able to cover a lot of space with his mobility.
Obviously the block rate and DREB% help too, I think that is about boxing (discipline) and bounce.

OKAFOR: 6.1 POINTS ALLOWED PER 100 HELPS, 30.6 EFFECTIVE HELP RATE
TOWNS: 16.7 POINTS ALLOWED PER 100 HELPS, 19.4 EFFECTIVE HELP RATE

Strange to me that Okafor help was most effective, but I want to see the total attemps on those numbers. That number only reflect effectiveness, but they not reflect how much a player actually went to help his teammate, cause if you go always to help, even when you know the effort could be in vain, your effectiveness will go down cause you are trying to contest even if you are late.

The problem I have with comparing some of these stats is strength of schedule. You have to look long and hard to find a decent opponent for Kentucky. Many of their games were like the trotters playing against the Washington generals. If you watched their games, how many 20-4 blowouts did you see from the outset? The soul of most teams were crushed from the stsrt. And watching towns play in these, it was hard to get too excited about Towns' defense when he was playing against 6'5" and 6''6" centers.

[AQuintus]

The article that you linked us to.

Not really. It has some overall picture stuff and then goes into isolated skillset stuff. The FT stuff was only included in the overall picture. FTs weren't included in the isolated skillset (shooting against pressure, shooting after dribbling, and passing) sections.

[AQuintus]

The problem I have with comparing some of these stats is strength of schedule.

Duke was 65th (62.1) in strength of schedule and Kentucky was 78th (59.8). The gap is very small.

Many of their games were like the trotters playing against the Washington generals. If you watched their games, how many 20-4 blowouts did you see from the outset?

This wasn't because their opponents were bad. This was because Kentucky was very, very good this year, and they were very, very good this year due to having great players like Towns.

it was hard to get too excited about Towns' defense when he was playing against 6'5" and 6''6" centers.

I actually looked into this. Towns played just as many games against teams with starters with NBA size (6'9"+ and 240+ pounds) as Okafor (20).