Trade Talk (Part Nine) (READ FIRST POST)

[wolves_89]

The biggest thing holding the Wolves back this season has been the bench play. Beasley, Prince, and Reid have all been significantly worse than expected. I think making a couple of fairly small moves could pay off big time in the second half of the season. My suggested course of action would be to trade Prince (and 2nds) to the Kings for Bagley. Using the $1.7M of additional cap space gained, I'd sign DeMarcus Cousins for the rest of the year (I don't think he's signed with anyone yet).

Looking at EPM, RAPTOR, and RAPM shows the potential upgrade to the team:

Prince (-4.4 EPM, -4.4 RAPTOR, -2.2 RAPM) vs Bagley (-0.1 EPM, 1.1 RAPTOR, 0.7 RAPM)
Reid (-0.9 EPM, -4.9 RAPTOR, -2.8 RAPM) vs Cousins (0.8 EPM, 5.2 RAPTOR, 1.2 RAPM)

The rotation would be:

Beverley/Nowell
Russell/Beasley
Edwards/McDaniels
Vanderbilt/Bagley
Towns/Cousins

I would expect the bench group to be massively better at rebounding, have moderately better offensive numbers, and be about the same on defense.

As an additional note, the Wolves could (probably should) also look at upgrading Beasley's spot. Unfortunately, I suspect the team will keep giving Malik chances in the hopes he can return to last years level of play.

[shangrila]

Okogie/Layman -for- Kevin Knox would get the Wolves far enough under the luxury tax they could sign someone with that extra roster spot, right?

The Hawks could use a perimeter pest for a few minutes a night, so I was wondering if that saved $ under the tax would be worth it for Minny.

I'd do it if you're willing to throw in a 2nd.

[raleigh]

I'd do it if you're willing to throw in a 2nd.

Sure, but we'll need a gift basket of Minnesota snacks, some souvenirs from the Mall, and a signed Prince t-shirt.

[winforlose]

I have a question. Does anyone who is good at advanced stats have a way of looking at Naz’s numbers only when he has 20 minutes or more per game? Likewise can that be looked at with 25+ minutes? I ask because I think people underestimate Naz’s value. He is not only starting quality he is probably around the 20th best center in the NBA if given enough time and consistency to show it. Being buried behind KAT has depressed his numbers.

[shangrila]

Beyond the fact that Myles Turner would replace all of Naz Reid's minutes, Nathan Knight is not "in-demand" enough to be a serious piece in a trade discussion.

Personally, I think Taurean Prince, Leandro Bolmaro, Naz Reid, and a Lottery Protected First for Myles Turner is pretty much on the money value wise (and keeps Minnesota just outside of the Luxury-Tax), but figuring out roster spots for Indiana is rough.

You don’t need to send both Naz and Leo. Naz is a promising young player. Naz plus Prince plus a first works and we can make other moves to get back under the tax. Especially if we can find a buyer for Beasley.

Naz Reid is a RFA this off-season and Leandro Bolmaro is a decent - but limited - prospect. Along with the pick, they roughly even out to Myles Turner's value (if healthy), but individually, I really think you are overvaluing Minnesota's assets.

This season, Taurean Prince and Naz Reid play a combined 31.1 minutes per game, while Myles Turner has played 29.4 minutes per game, this season. Effectively, we are talking about replacing their production with a player who is capable of stretching the court out to 28 feet, is very good at attacking closeouts, is a top-tier rim protector, can switch onto and contain guards, and (most importantly) is a low-usage player. Myles Turner is a limited player, but he is very good at what he specializes at.

The stress reaction is now a concern, but to me, replacing the production of Taurean Prince and Naz Reid is pretty clearly worth a Lottery-Protected First and Leandro Bolmaro.

Roster:

Spoiler:

D'Angelo Russell / Patrick Beverly / McKinley Wright IV
Anthony Edwards / Jaylen Nowell /
Jarred Vanderbilt / Malik Beasley / Josh Okogie
Myles Turner / Jaden McDaniels / Jake Layman
Karl-Anthony Towns / Nathan Knight

Depth Chart (Roughly)

Spoiler:

D'Angelo Russell (32) / Patrick Beverly (16)
Anthony Edwards (8) / Malik Beasley (16) / Jaylen Nowell (16) / Patrick Beverly (8)
Jarred Vanderbilt (12) / Anthony Edwards (26) / Jaden McDaniels (6) / Malik Beasley (4)
Myles Turner (14) / Jarred Vanderbilt (16) / Jaden McDaniels (18)
Karl-Anthony Towns (34) / Myles Turner (14)

Minute Distribution:

Spoiler:

Anthony Edwards - 34
Karl-Anthony Towns - 34
D'Angelo Russell - 32
Myles Turner - 28
Jarred Vanderbilt - 28
Patrick Beverly - 24
Jaden McDaniels - 24
Malik Beasley - 20
Jaylen Nowell - 16

Realistically there would be a lot of games where Beverly finishes instead of one of Myles Turner or Jarred Vanderbilt, depending on the matchup. This gives Minnesota a lot of flexibility.

EDIT: To reiterate, the most direct way to think about this is "what is upgrading Taurean Prince and Naz Reid minutes to Myles Turner minutes worth?" The stress reaction is worth considering, but if that is clear, Leandro Bolmaro and a Lottery Protected First is absolutely worth that cost, in my opinion.

The big problem is that the injury he had take about twenty games (on average) to recover, so this would be a deal that Minnesota would want to do right at the deadline (10 Feb), not right now. Doing it then makes it so Minnesota only has to play four games until the All-Star Break, which Myles Turner will likely return after.

My issue with Turner is all the recent comments about wanting a bigger role.

With the starters at least we don't need another guy wanting shots. So while in theory he'd be a great addition to round out our big rotation, given the cost and potential headache it might not be worth it.

Which is what I'm starting to think about this deadline as a whole. Asking prices are absurd right now. As much as I want them to go in for the playoffs this year I don't want them to settle for a bad deal just to do it.

[shangrila]

I'd do it if you're willing to throw in a 2nd.

Sure, but we'll need a gift basket of Minnesota snacks, some souvenirs from the Mall, and a signed Prince t-shirt.

Counter offer: One snack of your choosing (but no basket, come on with that ridiculousness), a photo of the Mall from the sidewalk and a Prince poster (that I'll sign personally).

[IceManBK1]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Guess he's not coming here lol he'll be 4th option over here.

[raleigh]

Counter offer: One snack of your choosing (but no basket, come on with that ridiculousness), a photo of the Mall from the sidewalk and a Prince poster (that I'll sign personally).

You are tough but fair.

Poster and snack (Twizzlers) are fine, but that photo needs to be framed.

[shangrila]

Counter offer: One snack of your choosing (but no basket, come on with that ridiculousness), a photo of the Mall from the sidewalk and a Prince poster (that I'll sign personally).

You are tough but fair.

Poster and snack (Twizzlers) are fine, but that photo needs to be framed.

Fine. I've even got the perfect frame;

[shangrila]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Guess he's not coming here lol he'll be 4th option over here.

Yeah, hard pass from me.

His WS/48 and TS% have been decreasing every year for the last 5 and his defence, in terms of advanced stats, aren't anything to write home about. So right now he's essentially a volume shooter on average efficiency with ok defence and nothing else. And he wants a 28mil per year extension? No thanks.

[shrink]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Guess he's not coming here lol he'll be 4th option over here.

This is exactly what I keep saying.

He left playoff Denver to go to a rotten Detroit team so he could be the star. Not just demanding to be a starter - he wants to be featured. A player like this is never going to be happy being the fourth option. And for the record, Ben Simmons said the same thing early last summer - he wants (wanted?) to be the feature player.

Appreciate Jared Vanderbilt. Do you think he sulks or doesn’t play hard when he doesn’t get enough touches?

[wolves_89]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Guess he's not coming here lol he'll be 4th option over here.

This is exactly what I keep saying.

He left playoff Denver to go to a rotten Detroit team so he could be the star. Not just demanding to be a starter - he wants to be featured. A player like this is never going to be happy being the fourth option. And for the record, Ben Simmons said the same thing early last summer - he wants (wanted?) to be the feature player.

Appreciate Jared Vanderbilt. Do you think he sulks or doesn’t play hard when he doesn’t get enough touches?

I think this describes the biggest problem with multiple guys that could be a good fit for the Wolves. All three of Collins, Grant, and Turner want an offensive role that they just won't get on a decent playoff team. To some degree this even applies to Simmons who is a guy that should not have the ball much in a half court offense. I'm starting to believe that the best course of action for the Wolves at the trade deadline is to just move Prince (and a heavily protected 1st or some 2nds) for a competent PF with some size to come off the bench.

[Danimals]

Would love to get Barnes. He’s a professional. He would not complain about coming off the bench. He’s been in big games. He fits with everyone on the court. He’s a great spot up shooter and solid all around. His contract is declining and is past the point in his career where he will expect big money on his next. He wouldn’t even be shocked by the winters.

[Domejandro]

My issue with Turner is all the recent comments about wanting a bigger role.

With the starters at least we don't need another guy wanting shots. So while in theory he'd be a great addition to round out our big rotation, given the cost and potential headache it might not be worth it.

Which is what I'm starting to think about this deadline as a whole. Asking prices are absurd right now. As much as I want them to go in for the playoffs this year I don't want them to settle for a bad deal just to do it.

Myles Turner shoots 9.4 shots per game. Taurean Prince shoots 4.2 shots per game. Naz Reid shoots 7.1 shots per game.

11.3 > 9.4 ; Plus, Myles Turner is more efficient than both Taurean Prince and Naz Reid.

Myles Turner currently plays for the third worst team in the Eastern Conference and feels underappreciated in his role as a low-usage player. He has never been a major malcontent, I honestly agree with him about the Indiana situation. I think he would absolutely be happy transitioning from a disaster situation to a Playoff team that has more touches immediately available.

I legitimately see that as a complete nonissue, especially given the relatively minor cost to obtain him. Feels like a Clint Capela situation where Minnesota can get a high-impact role-player (at a low cost) that would immediately improve the team substantially.

[winforlose]

My issue with Turner is all the recent comments about wanting a bigger role.

With the starters at least we don't need another guy wanting shots. So while in theory he'd be a great addition to round out our big rotation, given the cost and potential headache it might not be worth it.

Which is what I'm starting to think about this deadline as a whole. Asking prices are absurd right now. As much as I want them to go in for the playoffs this year I don't want them to settle for a bad deal just to do it.

Myles Turner shoots 9.4 shots per game. Taurean Prince shoots 4.2 shots per game. Naz Reid shoots 7.1 shots per game.

11.3 > 9.4 ; Plus, Myles Turner is more efficient than both Taurean Prince and Naz Reid.

Myles Turner currently plays for the third worst team in the Eastern Conference and feels underappreciated in his role as a low-usage player. He has never been a major malcontent, I honestly agree with him about the Indiana situation. I think he would absolutely be happy transitioning from a disaster situation to a Playoff team that has more touches immediately available.

I legitimately see that as a complete nonissue, especially given the relatively minor cost to obtain him. Feels like a Clint Capela situation where Minnesota can get a high-impact role-player (at a low cost) that would immediately improve the team substantially.

I see it one of two ways. It could be that Turner wants more opportunities to shine. Or it could be like Kyrie when he left Cleveland. Some guys want to win and feel like they are a part of it. Other guys care less about winning as being THE guy, or one of THE guys. I am a little afraid that Turner is in that latter catagory. I do agree that he will get plenty of touches and probably have better numbers here than with the Pacers. I also think his interior defense will be appreciated by the fans. I think he would be welcomed and loved and find a home here. That said, he will always be the third or fourth option behind Towns and either Ant/Dlo on any given night. He will get more of a 2nd option experience playing with Dlo and the second unit when KAT and Ant are on the bench, but when the starters are out he just isn’t going to be THE guy. If he can live with that then we should try and acquire him, if not I still like Wood, Grant, Randle, and more.

[Domejandro]

My issue with Turner is all the recent comments about wanting a bigger role.

With the starters at least we don't need another guy wanting shots. So while in theory he'd be a great addition to round out our big rotation, given the cost and potential headache it might not be worth it.

Which is what I'm starting to think about this deadline as a whole. Asking prices are absurd right now. As much as I want them to go in for the playoffs this year I don't want them to settle for a bad deal just to do it.

Myles Turner shoots 9.4 shots per game. Taurean Prince shoots 4.2 shots per game. Naz Reid shoots 7.1 shots per game.

11.3 > 9.4 ; Plus, Myles Turner is more efficient than both Taurean Prince and Naz Reid.

Myles Turner currently plays for the third worst team in the Eastern Conference and feels underappreciated in his role as a low-usage player. He has never been a major malcontent, I honestly agree with him about the Indiana situation. I think he would absolutely be happy transitioning from a disaster situation to a Playoff team that has more touches immediately available.

I legitimately see that as a complete nonissue, especially given the relatively minor cost to obtain him. Feels like a Clint Capela situation where Minnesota can get a high-impact role-player (at a low cost) that would immediately improve the team substantially.

I see it one of two ways. It could be that Turner wants more opportunities to shine. Or it could be like Kyrie when he left Cleveland. Some guys want to win and feel like they are a part of it. Other guys care less about winning as being THE guy, or one of THE guys. I am a little afraid that Turner is in that latter catagory. I do agree that he will get plenty of touches and probably have better numbers here than with the Pacers. I also think his interior defense will be appreciated by the fans. I think he would be welcomed and loved and find a home here. That said, he will always be the third or fourth option behind Towns and either Ant/Dlo on any given night. He will get more of a 2nd option experience playing with Dlo and the second unit when KAT and Ant are on the bench, but when the starters are out he just isn’t going to be THE guy. If he can live with that then we should try and acquire him, if not I still like Wood, Grant, Randle, and more.

There is not anything that indicates that he is in the latter category, he has a reputation for being a good teammate.

Regardless, the three names you listed really don't make any sense to me, especially given the context of your fears about shot distribution.

Past two years field goal attempts....
Christian Wood: 15.6, 13.4
Jerami Grant: 17.3, 15.9
Julius Randle: 18.6, 16.7
Myles Turner: 9.2, 9.4

Christian Wood is currently one of the more volatile personalities on the trade market, he literally has refused to check into games and has been suspended by the Houston Rockets. He is also a subpar-to-mediocre defensive player.

Jerami Grant left the Denver Nuggets to go to the Detroit Pistons (even though the money was the same) because he directly wanted to get more shot opportunities. I think he is very good and worth acquiring, but that doesn't fit into the shot distribution concern narrative at all.

Julius Randle is a player who is a major negative on the defensive end, has been extraordinarily inefficient offensively this year, and has the following contract....
$19,800,000 $23,760,000 $25,660,800 $27,561,600 $29,462,400 (PO)


It is a nonissue to begin with, but even if it was not, the three names you listed don't add up at all, from my perspective.

[Mattya]

Grant left Denver, for a larger offensive role, the year after getting 8.9 FGAs a game. Moving Beasley in a deal for him would give him more shots than he received his last season in Denver. He would replace Bev in the starting lineup and would be great to keep in to boost the bench as well.

[shangrila]

My issue with Turner is all the recent comments about wanting a bigger role.

With the starters at least we don't need another guy wanting shots. So while in theory he'd be a great addition to round out our big rotation, given the cost and potential headache it might not be worth it.

Which is what I'm starting to think about this deadline as a whole. Asking prices are absurd right now. As much as I want them to go in for the playoffs this year I don't want them to settle for a bad deal just to do it.

Myles Turner shoots 9.4 shots per game. Taurean Prince shoots 4.2 shots per game. Naz Reid shoots 7.1 shots per game.

11.3 > 9.4 ; Plus, Myles Turner is more efficient than both Taurean Prince and Naz Reid.

Myles Turner currently plays for the third worst team in the Eastern Conference and feels underappreciated in his role as a low-usage player. He has never been a major malcontent, I honestly agree with him about the Indiana situation. I think he would absolutely be happy transitioning from a disaster situation to a Playoff team that has more touches immediately available.

I legitimately see that as a complete nonissue, especially given the relatively minor cost to obtain him. Feels like a Clint Capela situation where Minnesota can get a high-impact role-player (at a low cost) that would immediately improve the team substantially.

For starters, I wasn't talking about moving on from Prince and Reid when I talked about cost. I don't care about Prince either way and I fully realise Reid needs to go if we're getting another C. That said, the talk about adding a first or two to that deal is what makes it too expensive for my tastes. Turner is good. He's not THAT good.

Secondly, you're assuming this is a non-issue because he's never made comments like this in the past. But that's the issue, there's no precedent with him. It's not like he's whined about his role then continued soldiering on in the past, so where's the guarantee that this IS posturing? It wouldn't be the first time a player has developed mid-career delusions of grandeur (see the current poster child; Grant, Jerami) and that will mess things up for us because we don't have the shots. Worse, we don't have the ROLE. He's not going to be touching the ball a lot and making a lot of decisions, which seems like a fairer assumption to make about what he wants going forward than simply shrugging it off as nothing.

And I'll just iterate for the final time to drive the point home; my issue is cost more than anything and I vehemently disagree with your assertion that it's going to be a "relatively minor cost". Them asking for two 1sts is not minor, nor is the general talk that teams want real 1sts and not heavily protected, never going to be conveyed ones. As I said above; Turner is good, he's not THAT good.

If that's the price for him, or anyone this deadline, then don't make a deal just to make it. Wait for the offseason and try again.

[shrink]

Grant left Denver, for a larger offensive role, the year after getting 8.9 FGAs a game. Moving Beasley in a deal for him would give him more shots than he received his last season in Denver. He would replace Bev in the starting lineup and would be great to keep in to boost the bench as well.

Beasley gets more shots because he plays most of his minutes with the bench, where he is often one of the best offensive options on the floor. If you replace Beasley with Grant and start him, Those 8.9 FGA’s aren’t all available.

[winforlose]

Myles Turner shoots 9.4 shots per game. Taurean Prince shoots 4.2 shots per game. Naz Reid shoots 7.1 shots per game.

11.3 > 9.4 ; Plus, Myles Turner is more efficient than both Taurean Prince and Naz Reid.

Myles Turner currently plays for the third worst team in the Eastern Conference and feels underappreciated in his role as a low-usage player. He has never been a major malcontent, I honestly agree with him about the Indiana situation. I think he would absolutely be happy transitioning from a disaster situation to a Playoff team that has more touches immediately available.

I legitimately see that as a complete nonissue, especially given the relatively minor cost to obtain him. Feels like a Clint Capela situation where Minnesota can get a high-impact role-player (at a low cost) that would immediately improve the team substantially.

I see it one of two ways. It could be that Turner wants more opportunities to shine. Or it could be like Kyrie when he left Cleveland. Some guys want to win and feel like they are a part of it. Other guys care less about winning as being THE guy, or one of THE guys. I am a little afraid that Turner is in that latter catagory. I do agree that he will get plenty of touches and probably have better numbers here than with the Pacers. I also think his interior defense will be appreciated by the fans. I think he would be welcomed and loved and find a home here. That said, he will always be the third or fourth option behind Towns and either Ant/Dlo on any given night. He will get more of a 2nd option experience playing with Dlo and the second unit when KAT and Ant are on the bench, but when the starters are out he just isn’t going to be THE guy. If he can live with that then we should try and acquire him, if not I still like Wood, Grant, Randle, and more.

There is not anything that indicates that he is in the latter category, he has a reputation for being a good teammate.

Regardless, the three names you listed really don't make any sense to me, especially given the context of your fears about shot distribution.

Past two years field goal attempts....
Christian Wood: 15.6, 13.4
Jerami Grant: 17.3, 15.9
Julius Randle: 18.6, 16.7
Myles Turner: 9.2, 9.4

Christian Wood is currently one of the more volatile personalities on the trade market, he literally has refused to check into games and has been suspended by the Houston Rockets. He is also a subpar-to-mediocre defensive player.

Jerami Grant left the Denver Nuggets to go to the Detroit Pistons (even though the money was the same) because he directly wanted to get more shot opportunities. I think he is very good and worth acquiring, but that doesn't fit into the shot distribution concern narrative at all.

Julius Randle is a player who is a major negative on the defensive end, has been extraordinarily inefficient offensively this year, and has the following contract....
$19,800,000 $23,760,000 $25,660,800 $27,561,600 $29,462,400 (PO)


It is a nonissue to begin with, but even if it was not, the three names you listed don't add up at all, from my perspective.

Last season everyone said our defense sucks and will always suck because our players suck at defense. I pointed out that players who have something to play for play harder and care more about defense. I bring this up, because the players we are discussing are all playing for losing teams. Turner came out and said he doesn’t want to be a role player. Now that is somewhat ambiguous, maybe he would be happy here in a V8 style role. Maybe he needs to be a double double machine and get talked about on sports center to be happy. I don’t know. The not knowing has risks. I wish Turner would clarify his statement, but I doubt he will.

Randle is an elite scorer and can create his own shot. His defense is an issue, no question. That said, for the 20/10 guys available his contract is reasonable. He can guard the C in a pinch and his weight allows him to defend the paint. We would scramble less and defend the perimeter better. Individual performance is important, but sometimes bad defenders can do very well in a system. For more proof see Dlo who is a terrible individual defender and has the highest defensive rating on our team.

Christian Wood might be a headcase. He is also the best player on a bad team with no prospect of becoming a good team any time soon. We have no idea what is happening in the Houston locker room and no idea how much Wood’s defense would improve if he was competing for something. Wood is an offensive weapon but less of a defensive asset compared to guys like Turner and Randle. As I have pointed out before, defense isn’t our problem. Even if we fell to middle of the pack in defense, we are a bottom third offense and that is devastating our playoff chances.

Jerami Grant left Denver because he wanted to be a starter. Coming here he would probably succeed for reasons mentioned above. The issue of him wanting 27-28 mil a year is a problem. That said, most difference maker players will want money in that range or higher over time.

The thing to remember about all these guys is playing with Towns and Ant will help them not harm them. They will get more open looks, more put backs, more rebounds, and will be on a winning team while doing so. Look at Derozan. He came to a team with Lavine, Vuc, and Ball. His shooting and scoring are up. All of this also assumes full health. If someone goes out these guys shot attempts and scoring burden go up as well. I am not saying you are wrong about anything you said. I am saying it is more complicated than you are considering. We need to strike the correct balance of talent and fit and be willing to spend the money to compete in the super payroll NBA that is forming because of teams like GSW, the Nets, and the two LAs.