Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Klomp]

Current mission: exploring three-way potential sending Butler to Houston, Randle to Miami, and Jabari Smith to Minneota

I used to live by Minneota! I'm from Marshall...

Crap....working at the Independent, I usually don't shrink like that.

[winforlose]

Current mission: exploring three-way potential sending Butler to Houston, Randle to Miami, and Jabari Smith to Minneota

Houston must be under $178.132 million with 14 players. I have them at 14 players and 3 two ways currently. Spotrac has them $15,244,933 under the first apron, which they are currently hard capped at. Taking in Butler is going to displace at least 3 players assuming they don’t move FVV. I made it work by doing the following

Miami out: Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson
Miami in: Julius Randle, Steven Adams, and Dillion Brooks

Wolves out: Julius Randle
Wolves in: Duncan Robinson, Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston out: Smith Jr, Brooks, and Adams
Houston in: Butler


Houston has 12 players and enough money to make it work.

Miami saves .3 million and dumps Robinson’s bad money without adding any bad deals. Though Brooks money is longer term than Miami wants, he is moveable in a 2nd deal later.

The Wolves eat a bad Robinson contract and would need additional incentive to do this. We save $3,897,040 in the bargain. I might demand a miller for Eason swap using TPE’s if I am the Wolves and I have to eat Robinson’s deal. Without Robinson’s money out, Miami has to send out someone more valuable or Terry Rozier who we really don’t want.

P.S, JSJ broke his left hand on the 18th and while he will avoid surgery, he is out for quite a while.


Edit to add: I reworked it a bit and realized I made a mistake. Jeff Green can go to Miami instead of Steven Adams which preserves a big man in Houston and they would definitely prefer it. Plus Green is an 8 million expiring. This gives Houston less room to maneuver under the cap but they would be signing minimums anyways. Also if Eason comes to the Wolves for Miller as sweetener (Miller must come in using the TPE from Houston where Eason can be acquired using the Randle out money, then Houston has even more room to operate in backfilling the last 2 spots.

[Norseman79]

Current mission: exploring three-way potential sending Butler to Houston, Randle to Miami, and Jabari Smith to Minneota

Houston must be under $178.132 million with 14 players. I have them at 14 players and 3 two ways currently. Spotrac has them $15,244,933 under the first apron, which they are currently hard capped at. Taking in Butler is going to displace at least 3 players assuming they don’t move FVV. I made it work by doing the following

Miami out: Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson
Miami in: Julius Randle, Steven Adams, and Dillion Brooks

Wolves out: Julius Randle
Wolves in: Duncan Robinson, Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston out: Smith Jr, Brooks, and Adams
Houston in: Butler


Houston has 12 players and enough money to make it work.

Miami saves .3 million and dumps Robinson’s bad money without adding any bad deals. Though Brooks money is longer term than Miami wants, he is moveable in a 2nd deal later.

The Wolves eat a bad Robinson contract and would need additional incentive to do this. We save $3,897,040 in the bargain. I might demand a miller for Eason swap using TPE’s if I am the Wolves and I have to eat Robinson’s deal. Without Robinson’s money out, Miami has to send out someone more valuable or Terry Rozier who we really don’t want.

P.S, JSJ broke his left hand on the 18th and while he will avoid surgery, he is out for quite a while.


Edit to add: I reworked it a bit and realized I made a mistake. Jeff Green can go to Miami instead of Steven Adams which preserves a big man in Houston and they would definitely prefer it. Plus Green is an 8 million expiring. This gives Houston less room to maneuver under the cap but they would be signing minimums anyways. Also if Eason comes to the Wolves for Miller as sweetener (Miller must come in using the TPE from Houston where Eason can be acquired using the Randle out money, then Houston has even more room to operate in backfilling the last 2 spots.

What I like, it fills backup 3 with a sniper and another 4 who can stretch the floor and board.

What I don't like, not addressing PG or C. Honestly, those might have to be moves for guys like NAW or Miller, etc.

[BlacJacMac]

Read on Twitter

Make it happen.

[winforlose]

Current mission: exploring three-way potential sending Butler to Houston, Randle to Miami, and Jabari Smith to Minneota

Houston must be under $178.132 million with 14 players. I have them at 14 players and 3 two ways currently. Spotrac has them $15,244,933 under the first apron, which they are currently hard capped at. Taking in Butler is going to displace at least 3 players assuming they don’t move FVV. I made it work by doing the following

Miami out: Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson
Miami in: Julius Randle, Steven Adams, and Dillion Brooks

Wolves out: Julius Randle
Wolves in: Duncan Robinson, Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston out: Smith Jr, Brooks, and Adams
Houston in: Butler


Houston has 12 players and enough money to make it work.

Miami saves .3 million and dumps Robinson’s bad money without adding any bad deals. Though Brooks money is longer term than Miami wants, he is moveable in a 2nd deal later.

The Wolves eat a bad Robinson contract and would need additional incentive to do this. We save $3,897,040 in the bargain. I might demand a miller for Eason swap using TPE’s if I am the Wolves and I have to eat Robinson’s deal. Without Robinson’s money out, Miami has to send out someone more valuable or Terry Rozier who we really don’t want.

P.S, JSJ broke his left hand on the 18th and while he will avoid surgery, he is out for quite a while.


Edit to add: I reworked it a bit and realized I made a mistake. Jeff Green can go to Miami instead of Steven Adams which preserves a big man in Houston and they would definitely prefer it. Plus Green is an 8 million expiring. This gives Houston less room to maneuver under the cap but they would be signing minimums anyways. Also if Eason comes to the Wolves for Miller as sweetener (Miller must come in using the TPE from Houston where Eason can be acquired using the Randle out money, then Houston has even more room to operate in backfilling the last 2 spots.

What I like, it fills backup 3 with a sniper and another 4 who can stretch the floor and board.

What I don't like, not addressing PG or C. Honestly, those might have to be moves for guys like NAW or Miller, etc.

JSJ is a stretch 5 in this scenario. At 6’10 approximately 220 he can play next to Naz. Robinson is not a sniper. For the season he is shooting 37.8% on 6.8 3PA per game. The volume helps excuse it a bit, but just a bit. Also the value is bad taking on Robinson without something coming back. Finally JSJ might miss the next two months, and that is not a great return with us being this thin at PF and C post Randle. I almost think we need Eason back to make this deal, and that might be a red line for Houston.

[winforlose]

Someone on the trade board helped me realize under the old model if we remove Robinson from the trade, and take back Brooks, then it still works. The Heat keep their bad money player and get exactly what they want, Randle whose money is off the books either in 25 or 26, and Green as an expiring. Brooks is still on our books next year, and his character is… questionable, but his game is solid. JSJ recovers and becomes our stretch 5 of the future.

[BlacJacMac]

Houston must be under $178.132 million with 14 players. I have them at 14 players and 3 two ways currently. Spotrac has them $15,244,933 under the first apron, which they are currently hard capped at. Taking in Butler is going to displace at least 3 players assuming they don’t move FVV. I made it work by doing the following

Miami out: Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson
Miami in: Julius Randle, Steven Adams, and Dillion Brooks

Wolves out: Julius Randle
Wolves in: Duncan Robinson, Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston out: Smith Jr, Brooks, and Adams
Houston in: Butler


Houston has 12 players and enough money to make it work.

Miami saves .3 million and dumps Robinson’s bad money without adding any bad deals. Though Brooks money is longer term than Miami wants, he is moveable in a 2nd deal later.

The Wolves eat a bad Robinson contract and would need additional incentive to do this. We save $3,897,040 in the bargain. I might demand a miller for Eason swap using TPE’s if I am the Wolves and I have to eat Robinson’s deal. Without Robinson’s money out, Miami has to send out someone more valuable or Terry Rozier who we really don’t want.

P.S, JSJ broke his left hand on the 18th and while he will avoid surgery, he is out for quite a while.


Edit to add: I reworked it a bit and realized I made a mistake. Jeff Green can go to Miami instead of Steven Adams which preserves a big man in Houston and they would definitely prefer it. Plus Green is an 8 million expiring. This gives Houston less room to maneuver under the cap but they would be signing minimums anyways. Also if Eason comes to the Wolves for Miller as sweetener (Miller must come in using the TPE from Houston where Eason can be acquired using the Randle out money, then Houston has even more room to operate in backfilling the last 2 spots.

What I like, it fills backup 3 with a sniper and another 4 who can stretch the floor and board.

What I don't like, not addressing PG or C. Honestly, those might have to be moves for guys like NAW or Miller, etc.

JSJ is a stretch 5 in this scenario. At 6’10 approximately 220 he can play next to Naz. Robinson is not a sniper. For the season he is shooting 37.8% on 6.8 3PA per game. The volume helps excuse it a bit, but just a bit. Also the value is bad taking on Robinson without something coming back. Finally JSJ might miss the next two months, and that is not a great return with us being this thin at PF and C post Randle. I almost think we need Eason back to make this deal, and that might be a red line for Houston.

Dude is literally a career 40% 3PT shooter on 7/Game.

If you take out the 15 games he played as a rookie, he has one season under 37% - and that was an injury plagued year where he missed half the season and only played 16 MPG.

2019-20: .45% on 8.3/Game
2020-21: .41% on 8.5/Game
2021-22: .37% on 7.9/Game
2022-23: .33% on 4.6/Game
2023-24: .40% on 7.0/Game
2024-25: .38% on 6.8/Game

Now, he doesn't give you much else, so you're basically paying a premium for Malik Beasley...

[winforlose]

What I like, it fills backup 3 with a sniper and another 4 who can stretch the floor and board.

What I don't like, not addressing PG or C. Honestly, those might have to be moves for guys like NAW or Miller, etc.

JSJ is a stretch 5 in this scenario. At 6’10 approximately 220 he can play next to Naz. Robinson is not a sniper. For the season he is shooting 37.8% on 6.8 3PA per game. The volume helps excuse it a bit, but just a bit. Also the value is bad taking on Robinson without something coming back. Finally JSJ might miss the next two months, and that is not a great return with us being this thin at PF and C post Randle. I almost think we need Eason back to make this deal, and that might be a red line for Houston.

Dude is literally a career 40% 3PT shooter on 7/Game.

If you take out the 15 games he played as a rookie, he has one season under 37% - and that was an injury plagued year where he missed half the season and only played 16 MPG.

2019-20: .45% on 8.3/Game
2020-21: .41% on 8.5/Game
2021-22: .37% on 7.9/Game
2022-23: .33% on 4.6/Game
2023-24: .40% on 7.0/Game
2024-25: .38% on 6.8/Game

Now, he doesn't give you much else, so you're basically paying a premium for Malik Beasley...

Let me rephrase. His role is Sniper, his performance is not. 38% is not good enough to be a sniper. Not at that price point.

[BlacJacMac]

JSJ is a stretch 5 in this scenario. At 6’10 approximately 220 he can play next to Naz. Robinson is not a sniper. For the season he is shooting 37.8% on 6.8 3PA per game. The volume helps excuse it a bit, but just a bit. Also the value is bad taking on Robinson without something coming back. Finally JSJ might miss the next two months, and that is not a great return with us being this thin at PF and C post Randle. I almost think we need Eason back to make this deal, and that might be a red line for Houston.

Dude is literally a career 40% 3PT shooter on 7/Game.

If you take out the 15 games he played as a rookie, he has one season under 37% - and that was an injury plagued year where he missed half the season and only played 16 MPG.

2019-20: .45% on 8.3/Game
2020-21: .41% on 8.5/Game
2021-22: .37% on 7.9/Game
2022-23: .33% on 4.6/Game
2023-24: .40% on 7.0/Game
2024-25: .38% on 6.8/Game

Now, he doesn't give you much else, so you're basically paying a premium for Malik Beasley...

Let me rephrase. His role is Sniper, his performance is not. 38% is not good enough to be a sniper. Not at that price point.

He's a career 40% shooter that gets up 10 PER36.

He's a sniper. But that's all he does.

[shrink]

- I like Jabari too, and I think he might be available with HOU having so many options. Jabari can flash star potential for a week or two, then spend six weeks being mediocre. His value will depend on his growth, and whatever contract he is willing to sign. He isn’t worth a max contract, but if he improves, he could become a max-level producer on an under-market contract.

- If MIN is forced to take on Duncan Robinson, then they need some compensation. BBallFreak mentioned he had no interest in Randle because of the rise of Jovic and Ware. I’d want one of those, preferably Ware. Financially, we might need to include NAW in the deal.

- One thing about Randle that people ignore is his fame. This guy is a regular All Star, and a two-time All NBA player. While many of us internet hoops wonks have never been fans of the guy, we aren’t the average, ticket-buying fan. In the real world, GMs need to be able to sell their trades to the fans and to the owner. In a Jimmy trade, (or the KAT trade), Randle helps cover up the real reason a GM trades away an All Star player.

- Robinson’s $20 mil deal is only guaranteed for $10 next year, so he could be cut (and stretched), to clear cap.

- Personally, I think there is a chance, but a low one (maybe 25%), that Randle is traded by the deadline. He’s playing much better and he and the Wolves have finally gotten over their growing pains. I suspect Connelly and Finch aren’t eager to jump back into confusion, since we’re playing better and there are high win-now expectations for this team. A Jabari/Jovic trade is a step back this season, but may help us longterm.

[BlacJacMac]

If MIN is forced to take on Duncan Robinson, then they need some compensation. BBallFreak mentioned he had no interest in Randle because of the rise of Jovic and Ware. I’d want one of those, preferably Ware. Financially, we might need to include NAW in the deal.

Ware was my favorite reasonable target in last year's draft - and he's off to a tremendous start.

Honestly, I'd be thrilled if he was the centerpiece return of a Randle trade. I think he's going to be very, very special.

[cmoss84]

2 birds, 1 stone.

Hou OUT: Brooks, Jabari, Green, Holiday, Eason
Hou IN: Butler, Burks, EJ Liddell
They have about $10 to fill out their roster...I think. They would have to really risk this one. Is Butler worth it to them? C+
VanVleet-Thompson-Green-Burks-Butler-FA PF-Sengun-Adams

Mia OUT: Butler, Robinson, Burks
Mia IN: Randle, Brooks, Green
Get rid of Butler and Robinson with a solid return. A+
Rozier-Herro-Brooks-JJJ-Jovic-Highsmith-Randle-Bam-Ware

Chi OUT: Ball, EJ Liddle
Chi IN: Robinson, Holiday, '25 SRP (Utah)
Excellent return. A+

MN OUT: Randle, '25 SRP (Utah)
MN IN: Ball, Jabari, Eason
PF depth now and future. Test run on Ball. Can we get a better return from Randle + the Utah SRP? More moves would need to follow (AKA trading NAW for a big) B+
PG-Mike-Ball-RD
SG-Ant-Ball-DD
SF-Naz-Eason-Minott
PF-NAW Trade-Eason-Naz-Jabari-Miller
C-Rudy-NAW trade-Jabari-Garza

[Klomp]

If MIN is forced to take on Duncan Robinson, then they need some compensation. BBallFreak mentioned he had no interest in Randle because of the rise of Jovic and Ware. I’d want one of those, preferably Ware. Financially, we might need to include NAW in the deal.

Ware was my favorite reasonable target in last year's draft - and he's off to a tremendous start.

Honestly, I'd be thrilled if he was the centerpiece return of a Randle trade. I think he's going to be very, very special.

I don't see Ware or Jovic as possible. Maybe Jaquez, but that's about it.

[BlacJacMac]

If MIN is forced to take on Duncan Robinson, then they need some compensation. BBallFreak mentioned he had no interest in Randle because of the rise of Jovic and Ware. I’d want one of those, preferably Ware. Financially, we might need to include NAW in the deal.

Ware was my favorite reasonable target in last year's draft - and he's off to a tremendous start.

Honestly, I'd be thrilled if he was the centerpiece return of a Randle trade. I think he's going to be very, very special.

I don't see Ware or Jovic as possible. Maybe Jaquez, but that's about it.

I don't either, but its who I want...

[Klomp]

Ware was my favorite reasonable target in last year's draft - and he's off to a tremendous start.

Honestly, I'd be thrilled if he was the centerpiece return of a Randle trade. I think he's going to be very, very special.

I don't see Ware or Jovic as possible. Maybe Jaquez, but that's about it.

I don't either, but its who I want...

Sure, I just hope it doesn't cloud anyone's judgment on what makes a good trade. I would like Wembanyama, but it doesn't mean that any deal we make with the Spurs that doesn't include him is a bad deal.

[fattymcgee]

Current mission: exploring three-way potential sending Butler to Houston, Randle to Miami, and Jabari Smith to Minneota

Just a general question - Why would Houston want general soreness??

They need an Alpha and a closer.

[winforlose]

If MIN is forced to take on Duncan Robinson, then they need some compensation. BBallFreak mentioned he had no interest in Randle because of the rise of Jovic and Ware. I’d want one of those, preferably Ware. Financially, we might need to include NAW in the deal.

Ware was my favorite reasonable target in last year's draft - and he's off to a tremendous start.

Honestly, I'd be thrilled if he was the centerpiece return of a Randle trade. I think he's going to be very, very special.

I don't see Ware or Jovic as possible. Maybe Jaquez, but that's about it.

Agreed, Ware is in their long term plans. Plus if we are taking JSJ then we are not likely also trying to add another big. JSJ for us is the 3rd big in the rotation, and maybe if we move Luka for Len like Shrink suggested we have an emergency big. I don’t expect Randle to Miami to happen, but if it did and involved Houston instead of JSJ we might bargain for Eason and Adams.

[shrink]

Ware was my favorite reasonable target in last year's draft - and he's off to a tremendous start.
Honestly, I'd be thrilled if he was the centerpiece return of a Randle trade. I think he's going to be very, very special.

I don't see Ware or Jovic as possible. Maybe Jaquez, but that's about it.

Agreed, Ware is in their long term plans. Plus if we are taking JSJ then we are not likely also trying to add another big. JSJ for us is the 3rd big in the rotation, and maybe if we move Luka for Len like Shrink suggested we have an emergency big. I don’t expect Randle to Miami to happen, but if it did and involved Houston instead of JSJ we might bargain for Eason and Adams.

Agreed. Ware is a big step with his play lately. But with Bam, Randle, and Ware, Jovic becomes a fourth big, and it might be hard to find minutes to develop him for a contender. Duncan Robinson used to be considered one of the worst contracts in the NBA, but maybe less so now when we get to only 1.5 years left on the deal.

Let me tell you about the 2016 Orlando Magic, that I think illustrates what real life GM’s face. “GM Stories with shrink.”

In 2016, the Magic traded Victor Oladipo, a useful Ilyasova, and their #11 pick that year (a guy by the name of Domantis Sabonis!) for Serge Ibaka. Ibaka back then was a very good defender and a solid pro. Oladipo hadn’t started missing games with injuries, and he was halfway through his third year on rookie scale. He had shown flashes of being a great player, but often was just mediocre. This led to a 15-4-4, not bad for a young player. When Oladipo arrived in OKC, he blew up that first year, and critics went after the Magic GM for not being more patient.

In a few years he lost his job, and explained his thinking. He said every GM needs to think longterm. Oladipo definitely had Star possibility, but he also carried a big risk of being just a normal rotation player. The GM went on to say that teams need to balance risk, and the front office had no idea what kind of contract to offer Oladipo, and decided to place his chips (payroll) behind a safer commodity in Ibaka.

This is the situation I see in HOU. The Rockets have a wealth of riches, good young players that will need minutes, and then need to be paid. I asked a Rockets fan who was HOU’s core, and he said Jabari .. and six other guys. Seven guys is not feasible. Jabari may already be losing his role to the other great young bigs, so what does HOU pay him? If MIN acquired Jabari, Connelly would also have to find that number, but it’s a lot safer bet for MIN who would clearly be using him as a starter.

[moretins]

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[Klomp]

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Can only happen by trading one of Rudy Gobert or Anthony Edwards. People are just throwing their money away....