Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[shrink]

Can only happen by trading one of Rudy Gobert or Anthony Edwards. People are just throwing their money away....

Right! I’m not a gambler, but is there a way to make money betting against the Wolves acquiring Fox?

I’d risk $100 to make $10, because this isn’t happening. You rarely get to monetize your knowledge of the CBA rules!

[shrink]

Let me tell you about the 2016 Orlando Magic, that I think illustrates what real life GM’s face. “GM Stories with shrink.” …

I just realized I revealed what a nerd I am.

You guys like watching basketball PLAYERS, and remember highlight dunks. Meanwhile …

[BlacJacMac]

Read on Twitter

?s=61&t=XG9p6vs5U9Fu-rK_ykd7qw

Can only happen by trading one of Rudy Gobert or Anthony Edwards. People are just throwing their money away....

Only Ant.

[winforlose]

Read on Twitter

?s=61&t=XG9p6vs5U9Fu-rK_ykd7qw

Can only happen by trading one of Rudy Gobert or Anthony Edwards. People are just throwing their money away....

Rudy is not trade eligible this year. But you are also mistaken. If the Wolves traded below the 2nd apron they could then aggregate. I wouldn’t touch Fox at that price point, but it is not mathematically impossible either, just prohibitively expensive. Basically you turn Randle into assets, then those assets plus Jaden and more (need to do the math on it but probably Mike and Dilly,) for Fox. Never going to happen, or at least IT SHOULD NOT.

[winforlose]

I don't see Ware or Jovic as possible. Maybe Jaquez, but that's about it.

Agreed, Ware is in their long term plans. Plus if we are taking JSJ then we are not likely also trying to add another big. JSJ for us is the 3rd big in the rotation, and maybe if we move Luka for Len like Shrink suggested we have an emergency big. I don’t expect Randle to Miami to happen, but if it did and involved Houston instead of JSJ we might bargain for Eason and Adams.

Agreed. Ware is a big step with his play lately. But with Bam, Randle, and Ware, Jovic becomes a fourth big, and it might be hard to find minutes to develop him for a contender. Duncan Robinson used to be considered one of the worst contracts in the NBA, but maybe less so now when we get to only 1.5 years left on the deal.

Let me tell you about the 2016 Orlando Magic, that I think illustrates what real life GM’s face. “GM Stories with shrink.”

In 2016, the Magic traded Victor Oladipo, a useful Ilyasova, and their #11 pick that year (a guy by the name of Domantis Sabonis!) for Serge Ibaka. Ibaka back then was a very good defender and a solid pro. Oladipo hadn’t started missing games with injuries, and he was halfway through his third year on rookie scale. He had shown flashes of being a great player, but often was just mediocre. This led to a 15-4-4, not bad for a young player. When Oladipo arrived in OKC, he blew up that first year, and critics went after the Magic GM for not being more patient.

In a few years he lost his job, and explained his thinking. He said every GM needs to think longterm. Oladipo definitely had Star possibility, but he also carried a big risk of being just a normal rotation player. The GM went on to say that teams need to balance risk, and the front office had no idea what kind of contract to offer Oladipo, and decided to place his chips (payroll) behind a safer commodity in Ibaka.

This is the situation I see in HOU. The Rockets have a wealth of riches, good young players that will need minutes, and then need to be paid. I asked a Rockets fan who was HOU’s core, and he said Jabari .. and six other guys. Seven guys is not feasible. Jabari may already be losing his role to the other great young bigs, so what does HOU pay him? If MIN acquired Jabari, Connelly would also have to find that number, but it’s a lot safer bet for MIN who would clearly be using him as a starter.

Pretend you trade Randle for JSJ (work out the rest later,) you would really start JSJ over Naz? Even knowing it might cost you Naz? JSJ will be an RFA in 26/27 and depressing his value by knocking some minutes down in 25/26 is not the worst idea. Meanwhile we eventually move Rudy and now maybe JSJ plays small ball 5 for us, or Naz moves to the SF and Jaden is 6th man, but all of that raises questions. I think Naz gets 30, Rudy gets 30, and JSJ gets 30 guaranteed, and the last 6 go to the two who have the better night. But I think starting and possibly closing is Naz and Rudy.

[m2002brian]

Technically possible.

[TimberKat]

Technically possible.

Fox's agent is Rich Paul, that likely mean he already has an agenda and a preferred team. I don't think that is Minnesota. I guess it's either PHX, LAC, or MIA.

[winforlose]

Technically possible.

Fox's agent is Rich Paul, that likely mean he already has an agenda and a preferred team. I don't think that is Minnesota. I guess it's either PHX, LAC, or MIA.

The reason he made the post was because a few posts back the betting odds were shown for where Fox lands. The odds had us at 3rd or 4th. I pointed out that we can acquire Fox by getting below the 2nd apron. This picture is actually incorrect. Jaden and Randle cannot go out in the same trade. But if Randle was traded for enough cap space to get under the 2nd apron, then McDaniels and more could be traded for Fox’s salary.

[cmoss84]

Last one for the day...I promise.

Mia OUT: Butler, Ware, JJJr
Mia IN: Randle, BBJr, Jonathan Mogbo, '25 SRP (Utah)
Rozier-Herro-BBJr-Highsmith-Robinson-Jovic-Randle-BAM-Mogbo

Tor OUT: BBJr, Boucher, Dick, Agbaji, Mogbo
Tor IN: Butler, NAW, '25 FRP (Det)
Quickly-Barrett-NAW-Walter-Butler-Barnes-Olynyk-Poeltl

SAC OUT: Fox
SAC IN: Jaden, Boucher, JJJr
Monk-Huerter-Derozan-Jaden-JJJr-Murray-Boucher-Sabonis

MN OUT: Randle, Jaden, NAW, '25 FRP (Det), '25 SRP (Utah)
MN IN: Fox, Dick, Ware, Agbaji
1st Apron
Is the juice worth the squeeze? Or do we give up too much? This leads to a Rudy trade in off-season.

PG: Fox-Mike-RD
SG: Ant-DD-Dick-Agbaji-TSJ
SF: Naz-Agbaji-Dick-Ant-Minott
PF: FA PF-Naz-Miller
C: Rudy, Ware

[BlacJacMac]

Technically possible.

Fox's agent is Rich Paul, that likely mean he already has an agenda and a preferred team. I don't think that is Minnesota. I guess it's either PHX, LAC, or MIA.

Its San Antonio.

[TimberKat]

Technically possible.

Fox's agent is Rich Paul, that likely mean he already has an agenda and a preferred team. I don't think that is Minnesota. I guess it's either PHX, LAC, or MIA.

Its San Antonio.

Yes, I don't know if I believe it. Also, it's odd that Twolves are considered 3rd most likely. But that just reminded me about interviewing for jobs and end up being the 3rd candidate.

[BlacJacMac]

Fox's agent is Rich Paul, that likely mean he already has an agenda and a preferred team. I don't think that is Minnesota. I guess it's either PHX, LAC, or MIA.

Its San Antonio.

Yes, I don't know if I believe it. Also, it's odd that Twolves are considered 3rd most likely. But that just reminded me about interviewing for jobs and end up being the 3rd candidate.

The important thing to remember is that odds in sports gambling have absolutely nothing to do with who the bookmakers think is going to win. Their only purpose is to get equal betting action on both sides. The odds makers and books do not care who wins a game - or in this case gets the player. Only that an event happens, and people bet equally on each side (equal is relative ... to the payouts on moneylines, to near equal action on spreads and totals and props, etc.

Their only goal in the long run is to have all bets cancel each other out so the casino (or bookies) can take all the profit from the juice - and risk essentially nothing.

[Domejandro]

Last one for the day...I promise.

Mia OUT: Butler, Ware, JJJr
Mia IN: Randle, BBJr, Jonathan Mogbo, '25 SRP (Utah)
Rozier-Herro-BBJr-Highsmith-Robinson-Jovic-Randle-BAM-Mogbo

Tor OUT: BBJr, Boucher, Dick, Agbaji, Mogbo
Tor IN: Butler, NAW, '25 FRP (Det)
Quickly-Barrett-NAW-Walter-Butler-Barnes-Olynyk-Poeltl

SAC OUT: Fox
SAC IN: Jaden, Boucher, JJJr
Monk-Huerter-Derozan-Jaden-JJJr-Murray-Boucher-Sabonis

MN OUT: Randle, Jaden, NAW, '25 FRP (Det), '25 SRP (Utah)
MN IN: Fox, Dick, Ware, Agbaji
1st Apron
Is the juice worth the squeeze? Or do we give up too much? This leads to a Rudy trade in off-season.

PG: Fox-Mike-RD
SG: Ant-DD-Dick-Agbaji-TSJ
SF: Naz-Agbaji-Dick-Ant-Minott
PF: FA PF-Naz-Miller
C: Rudy, Ware

A few notes:

1. Toronto has absolutely zero interest in Jimmy Butler (because he has no interest going there).
2. That value is pretty bad for Sacramento.
3. I do not see Miami trading Kel'el Ware, at this point in time.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Randle for the lovely Butler ?

[minimus]

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/trade-machine

Dane Moore says that only this trade simulator knows new CBA rules

[Guest84]

Of course it's a long shot and more than likely won't happen. However, for the sake of the thread...would you rather go into the future with a pairing of Fox/Ant, Rob/Ant, Ant/Jaden as your main duo??

Personally, I'm taking Fox/Ant. Similar timeline, Fox has been great in the clutch and would give Ant a bonafide 1A/B option.

Now, I do think if the wolves were to get below the 2nd apron, they more than likely would have to include Jaden and possibly Rob in any deal for Fox. Would the team or anyone here be willing to do that?

Would Fox be willing to wait until the offseason for a deal to take place? Granted I heard on some show yesterday that Fox does have at least one preferred team. I'm assuming bigger market for sure (like always).

[NebWolvesFan]

Technically possible.

That site did an update recently and I think it's not working properly. I tried a two-team Randle to Miami trade and it said it worked, but then I looked at it closer and Minnesota was getting more money back than it was sending out. Minnesota has a couple trade exceptions, but they really aren't applicable and I think the site thinks they are.

[shrink]

(A little birdie told me to keep an eye on Eric Gordon. Shhhh)

[winforlose]

(A little birdie told me to keep an eye on Eric Gordon. Shhhh)

?

[Kineto]

Question (sorry if allready asked).

Julius Randle had the trade kicker in his contract.
Does it kick on every trade or does it expire after the NY-MIN trade?

If their is still a trade kicker, can it be used to increase Randle's salary and make it higher than Fox's salary and make a Randle-Fox trade legal without the need to go back under 2nd apron?