Re: Trade Talk (Part Twelve): 2023 Playoff Push Edition

[Battletrigger]

It might help you worry less knowing that Towns best season statistically was 2017-18 when he was third on the team in FGA’s, behind Butler and Wiggins.

How good was Towns that year? He played 82 games, FG 54.5%, 3P 42.1%, 12.3 RB, 21.3 PPG. This put him in at second in the NBA in Win Shares, behind only MVP James Harden.

You sure know that was 5 or 6 years ago. No COVID, no familiars dead, not everybody laughing at him, not injuries.

Sometimes I wonder while I bother posting real world events when people are so desperate to defend their negative predictions of the future.

If you talk about one season or two it's fine, but talking about 2017?

[SO_MONEY]

There is absolutely no reason why Minnesota couldn't trade him next year, owing a pick doesn't prevent them from doing so.

The panic over needing to trade Karl-Anthony Towns at this exact point in time feels silly to me, especially given the context of not knowing if there are even any worthwhile offers. Minnesota was arguably Denver's toughest matchup, despite the team being half-crippled during the series. Really not the end of the world to run it back.

It doesn't prevent them, it would just be stupid to do so. If you think a trade is going to improve the team and not affect the pick, then there is no reason to hold off BTW.

This is a .500 team, with Towns and Gobert, perhaps address that before thinking this team has a chance.

This argument is non-sensical. Why are you ignoring the fact that KAT missed most of the season and are acting as if that didn't affect their record? They didn't have Towns and Gobert this season, they had Gobert AND KAT for the first 20 games, then KAT coming off injury for 8 games to end the season.

Are you saying that KAT coming off an injury plagued season is somehow MORE valuable than KAT being healthy this year?

All of your opinions are based in FEAR not facts. You get mad at people not being as afraid as you are and act like THEY are the problem.

KAT missing games did affect their record the were above. 500 without him.

[Baseline81]

It might help you worry less knowing that Towns best season statistically was 2017-18 when he was third on the team in FGA’s, behind Butler and Wiggins.

How good was Towns that year? He played 82 games, FG 54.5%, 3P 42.1%, 12.3 RB, 21.3 PPG. This put him in at second in the NBA in Win Shares, behind only MVP James Harden.

Like I said, shrink, you are banking on his health and efficiency. Maybe the world has beaten me down, but I'm not that optimistic.

Additionally, he will not come close to averaging 12 rebounds, unless Gobert goes down with significant injury. Two years ago, when he was the star of the team, he only averaged 9.8 REB.

[SO_MONEY]

How does a healthy KAT command less than one coming off a mostly injured year? That makes no sense... and don't bring his max into it. Plenty of teams would be happy to pay the max for a healthy KAT. He's worth more than a lottery ticket.

In this instance, I happen to agree with SO_MONEY.

If Towns injures himself again, whatever value he gained back is lost. Then factor in how he will be labeled injury prone, diminishing it further.

And since we are discussing his value, one can see his numbers fell off last year, largely due to a couple of things -- the addition of Gobert and Edwards becoming the focal point of the offence. Neither of those things will change. Towns' numbers will not revert back to a couple seasons ago when he clearly was the face of the franchise.

Posters are banking on his health and efficient scoring. I wouldn't take that bet.

You and SO_MONEY are scared, that's fine... but it doesn't mean you are correct and that other people are wrong. It also doesn't mean that you are wrong and other people are correct, none of these things can be known... but I DO know one thing.

Acting out of fear never ends well.

The bolded part about KAT cannot be known at this point, you are simply projecting and eliminating the possibility of him returning to form in order to try and validate your own opinions. The difference between us is that I KNOW that I CANNOT KNOW, but I am also not willing to say definitively what WILL happen. I am just more open to the positive possibilities than you are, I've never once said that for sure nothing bad will happen, that is impossible to predict.

Also, I'm done with this topic and am going to take some time away from the board until training camp. None of us KNOWS sh*t and there's no point trying to get people to see a different side of things, I've said plenty on the subject and am bored of going around in circles.

I think you are scared of trading Towns.

[TimberKat]

It might help you worry less knowing that Towns best season statistically was 2017-18 when he was third on the team in FGA’s, behind Butler and Wiggins.

How good was Towns that year? He played 82 games, FG 54.5%, 3P 42.1%, 12.3 RB, 21.3 PPG. This put him in at second in the NBA in Win Shares, behind only MVP James Harden.

You sure know that was 5 or 6 years ago. No COVID, no familiars dead, not everybody laughing at him, not injuries.

Sometimes I wonder while I bother posting real world events when people are so desperate to defend their negative predictions of the future.

Yes, I don't get why some people are so desperately looking for excuses that Towns' game (not contract) will be terrible going forward? Statically, most reasonably good players improve their game until age 30. There are exceptions and injuries but there is no reason to think Towns can't have another 2017 season especially with Gobert take more of the defense punishment at center. I think maybe Ant is getting in his way ?

[shrink]

You sure know that was 5 or 6 years ago. No COVID, no familiars dead, not everybody laughing at him, not injuries.

Sometimes I wonder while I bother posting real world events when people are so desperate to defend their negative predictions of the future.

If you talk about one season or two it's fine, but talking about 2017?

What other season was Towns NOT the face of of the franchise?

[shrink]

I’ve really been trying to understand all the negativity from a handful of our most prolific posters. I think some of it comes from the Wolves history of disappointing - and some mention that with the “well, this franchise” stuff, that was an almost completely different group of people. And I think some comes from the amount we gave for Gobert, and “only being a .500 team” with high preseason expectations.

But for people to hold these views, it takes a lot of intentional ignoring of real life data to match their emotional response. Towns missed two thirds of the season - and we were still .500? Connolly has made countless good decisions as a GM in DEN and MIN, but he’s bad and he’ll mess more stuff up in the future? Towns numbers can’t improve from a down season if he’s healthy but he’s not the face of the franchise?

I post these facts thinking, “well, maybe that will make people feel a little better,” and the response is usually the same. I feel it’s “here’s why I want to ignore that, and I don’t want to feel better!”

I don’t know what next year will look like. Nobody does. But it feels more and more like I’m reading posts where people want to act like they know that a horrible doom awaits us, and use the board as a way to whine and complain, dismissing anything that doesn’t correlate with their despair. Let’s see what happens.

[shrink]

It might help you worry less knowing that Towns best season statistically was 2017-18 when he was third on the team in FGA’s, behind Butler and Wiggins.

How good was Towns that year? He played 82 games, FG 54.5%, 3P 42.1%, 12.3 RB, 21.3 PPG. This put him in at second in the NBA in Win Shares, behind only MVP James Harden.

Like I said, shrink, you are banking on his health and efficiency. Maybe the world has beaten me down, but I'm not that optimistic.

Additionally, he will not come close to averaging 12 rebounds, unless Gobert goes down with significant injury. Two years ago, when he was the star of the team, he only averaged 9.8 REB.

You’re right, but the contention was that he would be worse than last season, since he’s not the face of the franchise.

We discussed this last week, but I don’t believe Towns has an alpha personality, and that’s fine if you have another alpha on the team. He’s shown he‘s comfortable and very effective being a second and even third option.

[Biff Cooper]

It might help you worry less knowing that Towns best season statistically was 2017-18 when he was third on the team in FGA’s, behind Butler and Wiggins.

How good was Towns that year? He played 82 games, FG 54.5%, 3P 42.1%, 12.3 RB, 21.3 PPG. This put him in at second in the NBA in Win Shares, behind only MVP James Harden.

Like I said, shrink, you are banking on his health and efficiency. Maybe the world has beaten me down, but I'm not that optimistic.

Additionally, he will not come close to averaging 12 rebounds, unless Gobert goes down with significant injury. Two years ago, when he was the star of the team, he only averaged 9.8 REB.

KAT had a very good and efficient year 2 years ago while playing 74 regular season games, but he had 27.8% usage that year compared to the 22.9% usage he had in Shrink's 2016-17 season. Most players do sacrifice efficiency as their usage goes up. I think KAT struggled with only being a 22.9% usage player and that caused some of the issues with Jimmy. Hopefully the injury last year gave KAT a little more maturity to realize that what matters is team success, and it probably isn't maximizing team success for him to be over a 25% usage player.

On the other hand, there is a risk that KAT and Gobert don't mesh offensively on the court, and that his efficiency will never be the same if sharing the court with Gobert. It will somewhat fall on management and the coaching staff to figure out how to maximize our total team efficiency.

[frankenwolf]

This is a .500 team, with Towns and Gobert, perhaps address that before thinking this team has a chance.

This was a .500 team with Gobert and 35% of Towns. Add to that changing PG 1/2 way thru the season and we are back to our expected starters for 23-24 playing SEVEN games together and learning on the fly. It is a ridiculous idea to toss an experiment based on 9% completion of the experiment. The best thing would be to run it back as much as possible (seeing how we may lose Naz), and take the NBA world by storm

[minimus]

I mean Trey Murphy and Dyson Daniels definitely have potential, plus 4 1rst round picks for Kat...I wouldn't call that garbage. Pels get most because they are giving most...

Potential to do what? It's extremely unlikely either will be an all-star and Daniels was not good last year. The four 1st round picks will be mid to late round picks. We need some Talent coming back.

Murphy definitely has the potential to be an All-Star. My guess is you aren't super familiar with his game other than maybe stat sheets. The kid can shoot, defend, and has improved handles.

https://pelicandebrief.com/2023/05/30/crazy-statistics-trey-murphy-iii/

As far as Daniels goes, at the very least you were looking at a legit backup point guard on a reasonable contract. With the potential to become an elite defensive stopper and passer.
https://pelicandebrief.com/2023/03/24/dyson-daniels-breakdown-pelicans-get-hidden-gem-2023-class/

Get Kira Lewis then!

[SO_MONEY]

This is a .500 team, with Towns and Gobert, perhaps address that before thinking this team has a chance.

This was a .500 team with Gobert and 35% of Towns. Add to that changing PG 1/2 way thru the season and we are back to our expected starters for 23-24 playing SEVEN games together and learning on the fly. It is a ridiculous idea to toss an experiment based on 9% completion of the experiment. The best thing would be to run it back as much as possible (seeing how we may lose Naz), and take the NBA world by storm

The team was above .500 without Towns, and according to your numbers that experiment is 91% complete. Cuts both ways man.

[minimus]

One thing that I am thinking about is increased pace and offensive rating in NBA. As result we see more missed games from stars because of load management, injuries, recovery etc. This might favor highly organized teams with good bench. Teams like SAC, DEN over teams like DAL and PHO. Keeping Towns means no deep bench, while we will still have problem with future starting PG. If Towns trade will bring us a starting PG and some depth, I believe we will be in playoffs for many years, but probably won't advance the first round soon. However, I don't believe that Towns is a right player on supermax contract if we want to go deep in playoffs. At the end of the day our biggest hope for deep playoff run are Edwards and MCD.

[Calinks]

I see Portland is trying to get Bam. I really think team wise they would be better with KAT. Bam is great for sure but I think he's like a third fiddle or super role guy. Dame needs some offensive firepower. Zion is a good fit too but he's so unreliable, I would definitely prefer KAT over those two in Portlands situation.

[twolves31]

This is a .500 team, with Towns and Gobert, perhaps address that before thinking this team has a chance.

This was a .500 team with Gobert and 35% of Towns. Add to that changing PG 1/2 way thru the season and we are back to our expected starters for 23-24 playing SEVEN games together and learning on the fly. It is a ridiculous idea to toss an experiment based on 9% completion of the experiment. The best thing would be to run it back as much as possible (seeing how we may lose Naz), and take the NBA world by storm

The team was above .500 without Towns, and according to your numbers that experiment is 91% complete. Cuts both ways man.

He was hospitalized/bed ridden and lost 17lbs right before the start of the season. He shot 32% from 3 prior to his injury which is clearly not something Kat is going to do long term. After getting injured he played in a whole 8 games and we expected him to just be ready for the playoffs after all that?

[shrink]

I’m listening to Windy right now on NBA Today, and his most recent info is that POR doesn’t want to trade the third pick. He points out that 48 hours before the draft is the epicenter of misinformation.

He then went and talked to Dame’s people, and they reiterated his position that he wants vets and wants to win, not play in a rebuild situation with lots of youth.

Austin Rivers co-hosting

[TimberKat]

Part of what makes all these trade conversation interesting this year is that, we have the #2, #3 team that really don't want the pick. I totally could see a POR rebuild too. Lillard's trade value is limited because of age and length of the contract, so to Knicks or Heat for youth and picks. Heat could head down the rebuild path also. Butler to NYK and Bam to POR.

[shrink]

I mentioned yesterday that ORL might be a good spot for Towns, but CHA might be even better. They are horrible at three point shooting (27th 3PM, 29th 3P%), and may have the worst starting front court in the NBA with Mark Williams and PJ Washington. Their back ups? JT Thor and Nick Richards. Awful. They also have salary matching with Gordon Hayward.

I know we alway focus on POR and Dame, but the Hornets aren’t a closed book either.

[Macwolf527]

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley - just salary
• Patrick Beverley - just salary
• Leandro Bolmaro - just salary
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft) - may get lucky, will see, mostly likely Mark Eaton
• Jarred Vanderbilt - just salary
• 2023 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2025 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2026 pick swap - likely no swap, meaningless if we stay the course
• 2027 first-round pick - could be a high pick
• 2029 first-round pick - top 5 protected

So, doesn't look as bad as the initial post. Maybe one 1st too many for the price of not including JMac

No, it looks just as bad as it is, you are trying to rationalize it. The truth is Kessler alone at his salary is a loss for the deal (something I didn't predict), Beasley and Vanderbilt are not "just salary" they were worth a 1st and that is before the picks we gave up, which I might add could also be used in trade. Moreover, you are vastly overestimating the likelihood this team is anything more than close to .500.

Kessler looks the part, but I want to see some consistency before I sign off on him as legit. He disappeared in some games and I want to see how he handles the load in his 2nd year when teams know what he's about. I always thought the picks were overrated in the Gobert trade. Very few teams hit on all their picks. I put the success rate at about 65% even with top 15 picks. If the Wolves have intentions of finishing in the playoffs the next 5-6 years or beyond........you're better off signing vets at the minimum to play roles. You're not 3-4 years invested out the box and you get a contributor, which is always needed for playoff teams to stave off time loss to injuries.

[frankenwolf]

This is a .500 team, with Towns and Gobert, perhaps address that before thinking this team has a chance.

This was a .500 team with Gobert and 35% of Towns. Add to that changing PG 1/2 way thru the season and we are back to our expected starters for 23-24 playing SEVEN games together and learning on the fly. It is a ridiculous idea to toss an experiment based on 9% completion of the experiment. The best thing would be to run it back as much as possible (seeing how we may lose Naz), and take the NBA world by storm

The team was above .500 without Towns, and according to your numbers that experiment is 91% complete. Cuts both ways man.

Incorrect as the 9% includes Conley at PG. Since he was only here for 29% of the season and him & KAT played together for 7 games, which they went 4-3, which is a .570 winning percentage, there should be NO reason to not continue this incomplete experiment.