Post#1419 » by TheZachAttack » Sat Jan 8, 2022 9:15 am
Title: Will Anthony Edwards ever become a top 25 player? I'm tired of waiting. Wait, what do you mean Edwards is ALREADY a top 25 player? When did that happen?
Introduction:
Anthony Edwards has been playing really well lately, at least when he and the Wolves have been playing, as the NBA navigates covid. Edwards had an interesting rookie season where he was awful during the first half and then played at a level as a scorer that was arguably not all that far off from the group of wings that many would classify as in the top 25 range in the NBA (but outside the top 10) in some order such as Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, and Zach Lavine. This group of wings are all or have been #1 options for their teams as wing scorers, but have generally not been their teams primary playmaker despite their talent as scorers.
I compare Edwards to this group as depending on who you ask this group ranges from roughly 10-25th in the NBA based on a number of factors. In my opinion, each of these players in the past 2 years or so have had a time period where I would consider them to be the best among this group. I group Edwards with this player archetype as I feel that if Edwards continues to take the step forward that he has as a scorer over the past 25 games (after an additional big step forward he took over the previous 30-40 games) that Edwards may actually already be at this group's level as a scorer offensively and projects to develop in a similar way in terms of improving his ability to run an offense but likely never being considered a primary PG like say James Harden eventually was.
Edwards taking an additional step forward has been hidden by Wolves injuries, Covid, and by the fact that a fully healthy Wolves team doesn't really support massive volume numbers because Towns, Edwards, and D Lo alone command a lot of shots without factoring in Beasley and other role players.
Edwards has made improvements as a shooter over this last 25 game stretch that build on a now 60-70 game stretch as a 36-37% shooter on top 10 in the league volume. In addition, he's made a few changes to his game and put an emphasis on generating turnovers and turning those turnovers into fastbreaks and points. Edwards has an argument for being one of the 2 or 3 best perimeter shooters in the league over the last 25 games he's played with Curry, Lavine, Trae, and Van Fleet (data below). In addition, he now ranks #1 in generating appoints off turnovers, and is in roughly the top 10 range in the league creating turnovers as well as generating fastbreak points. It doesn't stop there, Edwards has also somehow turned into a player with one of the most efficient shot selection profiles in the league.
Edwards is in the top 10 in the league in shots at the rim per game and #3 among non bigs behind Russ/Lebron. In addition, when comparing Edwards to other elite scorers he takes the least amount of inefficient midrange shots among any that I could find (only ~1.5 per game). When you combine these two pieces of information, with the information about how dominant he has been in transition and both creating & finishing points off turnovers and then ADD the fact that Edwards has been both one of the highest volume 3 point shooters in the league AND has one of the highest 3 point efficiencies in the league among volume 3 point shooters (39.5% on 8.5 attempts per game)...well what do you get?
You get a player that is a threat to score from anywhere on the offensive side of the court, can create his own shot whenever he wants, can get to the rim when he wants more so than any wing, is arguably the biggest difference maker in transition as wing, and has morphed into a player who only takes shots on the fast break, at the rim, and from 3?
You get a player that over that same time has an eFG% of 55% and a TS% of 58% over a 25 game stretch. Among other #1/#1a options, this level of efficiency is only beaten, depending on the efficiency metric, by a handful of other options over that stretch (Lebron, Lavine, Trae, Giannis, Jokic, Towns) have him beat in eFG% and in TS% a few others such as Curry, Durant, and Mitchell slide in front of him because Edwards doesn't get to the line as much as he eventually needs to. That being said, he's right in the middle of elite company both in terms of #1 options as a whole but especially wing scorers.
I share my thoughts in more detail below. It may sound outlandish and to me the data is unexpected, but the underlying profile & the foundation behind how Edwards is generating offense while taking on a #1a/#1b scoring role on an Offense for a team that is battling for a playoff spot is driving me towards the conclusion that this is a sizable trend that appears to be for real. Edwards has quietly taken another big step forward during the first half of this year. In fact, I think that as a scorer he has taken a big enough step that would suggest he should be talked about in a tier with some of those wings who are considered elite scorers and similar player types. I also don't think this is a discussion about Edwards potential to be at that level in the future, I think the underlying data driving his play suggests that a little bit out of nowhere he might already be there.
If you're interested in reading more detail than the summary on why please read below and let me know your feedback!
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In 25 games played since November 8th, Anthony Edwards stat line is the following
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Traditional Stats
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35 mpg
22.1 ppg
5.3 rbds
3.7 ast
3.4 TO
2.3 STL/TOs
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Traditional Shooting Splits
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2pt - 50.5% (9.3 FGA)
3pt - 39.3% (8.4 FGA)
FT - 78.2% (3.6 3PA)
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Efficiency Stats
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TS% - 57.9%
eFG% - 55.0%
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Observations
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Edwards Rookie Season - Tale of Two Halves
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Anthony Edwards stats this season have improved from his holistic whole last season across the aboard even if the difference are relatively small and due partially to an increase in minutes played per game. The most meaningful jump forward that Edwards has made has been in terms of his efficiency as a shooter and also a scorer since his rookie season. Edwards rookie season was a tale of two halves. In the first half of the season Edwards was extremely inefficient as a scorer from all 3 levels. However, in the second half Edwards took a big jump forward and became a player who could score 20+ ppg on roughly the following shooting splits: 50% 2pt FG%, 36% 3pt FG%, and a 77-78% FT%.
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Contrary to some opinion, volume scoring is a skill in the NBA and one of the hardest skills for teams to find--especially NBA skills that matter when games matter the most
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Basically, Edwards during his rookie season evolved into a 19 year old player who could be relied upon to produce volume scoring at roughly an average rate among NBA players that are asked to score at volume. The average efficiency for NBA players who score 18+ ppg factoring out a few outliers among roll/lob big men is roughly 55% during the 2021-22 season. This includes a pool of just under 50 NBA players (48 players) meaning that this represents players that are asked to be #1 scorers for their teams or are above average #2 scorers. The reason I contextualize this is because it's no small feat that Edwards, at 19, basically a player that was better than 50% of the best scorers in the NBA who are asked to take on a lead scoring role for their team and to create offense.
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Edwards is starting to trend towards elite company in his role during his sophomore season and it's not fully being talked about how impress his production is compared to other similar players
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Edwards in his sophomore season has proven that the step forward he took during the second half of his rookie season was real and not a hot streak. During his sophomore season, without filtering out the first 9 games above has essentially mimicked the scoring production and efficiency levels that he did during the second half of last season. That observation may lend to a conclusion that Edwards has had a solid sophomore season in the fact that he hasn't had a sophomore slump and due to that fact that he's been able to maintain his solid efficiency both as a shooter and scorer despite additional awareness and scouting from opposing teams and an increased responsibility to be the #1/#2 on the Wolves versus the #3 during his rookie season. However, it also belies that Edwards does seem to have started to take additional steps forward as a volume scorer that have become more and more apparent as the season has progressed.
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Edwards perimeter shooting improvement
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Anthony Edwards started out the season slow from the perimeter shooting just 29.9% from 3 on 9.6 attempts per game during his first 8 games of the season. In his 9th game against Memphis, Edwards went 4-9 from 3 and hasn't looked back since. Edwards is still a streaky shooter to some extent, but he has a mentality that he's always going to make the next one and can get hot at any time as well as hit any shot from anywhere on the court. Anthony Edwards is flashing a trend that is worth paying attention to that he has improved as a shooter.
Anthony Edwards has taken an additional step forward as a shooter in his last 25 games shooting 39.5% on big time volume (over 8 attempts per game). Edwards is still an inconsistent shooter and will have games where he is 0, 1, or 2 for 6, 7 or 8. However, Edwards has also had multiple games this season where he hits 6, 7, 8+ 3's. Edwards is showing flashes that he may be developing into a player that is a similar level of dangerous to other volume scoring wings like Harden, Doncic, and even Lilliard who can hit any type of 3 point shot from any distance on the floor and can get their shot off from the perimeter off the dribble whenever they want.
That is, Edwards is a shotmaker that is going to always be a major perimeter threat because he's always one shot from hitting 5 in a row and can make shots from anywhere on the court despite any defense. The archetype from those wings show us that in the modern NBA, for #1 perimeter scorers, that it's great if you can be Steph Curry and hit crazy contested shots at crazy percentages at crazy volume. However, what's more important is that you can hit at roughly just below league average efficiency or ideally league average efficiency or better with an ability to be able to hit at that level of efficiency despite the defense, degree of difficulty of the shot, or with needing teammate help to create the shot.
In addition, that threat as a perimeter scorer is important for wing scorers to force teams to respect their spacing, go over screens, stay tight on them off ball, and open up both driving lanes for them but also lanes for teammates. The difference between good and bad 3 point shooting nights. The difference between Steph Curry and a non-shooter is essentially 1 miss or make for every 10 shots and with the way we interpret stats we interpret that difference as hugely impactful in individual games on the outcome. We consider a 30% 3 point shooter and a 40% 3 point shooter very different things even though it's 1 bounce off of a rim that a portion of the time gets rebounded anyways during a course of 100 possessions during a game.
In reality, the impact that a players ability to create his own shot from anywhere and from any distance at any time on the perimeter has in terms of giving that player room on 10 drives per game as well as giving teammates additional room on just about every possession per game is worth much more in terms of offense than the impact of whether a ball rimmed halfway down and in or out of the rim. Edwards is putting together a consistent time period of games that suggests he is becoming one of the better volume perimeter scorers in the league (even if there will always be better 3 point shooters by percentage) and compared to the league average Edwards may bounce between just below league average, league average, and just above league average, with potentially a couple of hot years above that even similar to players like Doncic/Harden/Lebron and even other 'shooters' such as Booker and more. This is a group of players who are traditionally known as great shooters who put up huge 3 point volume despite not having elite efficiency (generally in the 35-38% range and at times that group has even been below that).
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Edwards and other primary scoring options should be compared to other players who are primary scoring options as well instead of the league average. In order to fully contextualize, you can compare them to the "best" secondary scorers who are operating as "uber" efficient role players in a system that splits up portions of primary scoring to lesser roles focused on finding open shots. These are really the two types of players that could potentially replace production for a #1 player like Edwards.
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There are 18 players in the NBA who average 8 or more 3 point attempts per game, of those 16 there are only 3 (Van Fleet, P. Mills, & Trae) that have a 3pt FG% above 39.5% as Edwards has had over the last 23 games. Even if you use Edwards full-season 3pt FG% (36.9%), among that group of 18 there's only 5 ahead of him (Curry, Oubre).
If you expand the pool of shooters to 60 attempts you're getting into a sample size of over 50 players. In that sample, there are only 15 players that shoot better than 39% from 3. Of that group, there are only 5 players that are players in primary scoring roles that shoot at this volume with this efficiency (despite the theoretical degree of difficulty because of the types of shots compared to other roles). This group includes Lavine, Booker, Trae, Edwards, and Curry. That is pretty elite company. The rest of the group (in order to compare production against alternatives) are a group of efficient 3 point shooting #2/#3 scorers (Middleton, Rozier), another group of 'uber/superstar' role players so to speak (Van Fleet, Bogdanovic, Bane, and Ball) as well as 3&D volume shooters (Love, Oubre, Monk, and Mills).
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Anthony Edwards is quietly developing into an elite volume 3 point shooter
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Edwards is asked to be a #1a/#1b scorer for the Wolves. In this role, Edwards is going to be asked to create his own shot and take/make a lot of difficult shots in big moments against the teams best defenders and defenses gameplanned to stop you. There are not a lot of players in the NBA that can take on this role and volume and score at above league average efficiency--especially from the perimeter. Finding players that can create their own shot, score from all 3 levels including the perimeter, and do so at an above league average efficiency is one of the most difficult things to do in the NBA.
There are a lot of NBA fans, especially analytics fans, that would argue that a lot of primary scorers in the NBA who are asked to take on a #1 or #1b role don't score that efficiently and because of that their scoring output could be replaced by role players who are moving the ball and working systems to find and take open shots that are in rhythm as much as possible. It may be possible to do this consistently in some systems implemented by some coaches with all of the right pieces--however teams that have been touted to win playing this way usually have a couple of superstar players that have bought into playing a certain way and really the team is still relying on those players and their execution as well as relying on them more heavily when it matters most.
Despite being asked to take on a star level role on offense, Edwards has been arguably the best perimeter scorer in the NBA among primary scoring options not named Curry/Lavine. Edwards improvement as a shooter is a trend that hasn't been talked about a lot yet, but should. He may fall back to earth given his streakiness, but that is also missing the broader point. Edwards is showing the ability to sustain long stretches of time during a season playing at a level that puts him on a shortlist of best perimeter shooters in the league. There were a lot of concerns coming into the NBA about Edwards 3 point shot. Given Edwards percentages of around 36% over the last half of last season, 37% over this full season, and even now 25 game stretch at almost 40% gives good indication that Edwards is going to develop into a similar type of shooter to other #1 option scoring wings even if he fluctuates during stretches from league average to above average and maybe even stretches of being below average.
Edwards is clearly showing that he fits the mold of other perimeter scorers who can at any time, during any game, create and make his own shot at any degree of difficulty. This means that opponents will have to respect Edwards perimeter shot at a minimum for fear of letting him get hot and hit 6-9 3's and blow a game wide open. More than percentages, getting to this level as a player is what is important for Edwards to reach an elite #1 wing scorer level. Edwards has now put together a 60-70 game stretch dating to last season where he's in the 36-37% range. We may already be at the point where we can check off this box as a skill that Edwards possesses at the level needed in order to be a #1 perimeter scorer in the NBA.
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Edwards usage profile has changed in interesting ways
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Ant has not only solidified and built upon his improvements as a shooter during the second half of last season this season, but he has made a couple of small changes to the way he plays and he generates his shots that allow Edwards to generate more easy looks for himself more consistently than he did last season. In addition, if we take a step back it may be starting to become obvious that we've misunderstood Edwards a little bit as a player and he's been wrongly labeled as having a bad shot selection. There are many NBA fans as well as Wolves fans who make arguments that one of the biggest things holding Edwards back and keeping him from being able to be more consistent or reach the next level is his shot selection.
However, does he really have a bad shot selection? Is his shot selection really what's holding him back from reaching the next level? Could it actually be one of his strengths as a player? I want to argue that Edwards shot selection is currently one of the more promising things about Edwards production profile and foundation that suggests he can continue to scale his production at volume and even increased volume from his volume today. Instead, I want to eventually argue that Edwards shot selection is a strength and instead where he really needs to continue to improve is as a ball-handler, decision-maker, passer, and finisher in order to be able to take even MORE of a high usage role that allows him to also get others involved in an impactful way and in some ways run an offense instead of having a #1 or #2 scoring role in an offense alone.
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Wait, what do you mean Edwards has a good shot selection[?/b]
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[b]Basically no midrange shots Anthony Edwards shoots extremely few shots that are classified as inefficient. Edwards shoots under 10% (~1.75 per game) of his shots from midrange between 10-20 feet. If you compare the number of shots in this area that Edwards takes versus other perimeter scoring #1/#2 options, you probably won't be able to find a comparable player with a lower percentage/volume of midrange shots outside of players who fit the Klay Thompson archetype that can score 20+ ppg basically only on perimeter jump shots along without creating their own shot. Edwards does not have bad habits around midrange twos, in fact it's one of his strengths as a player in that he is either going to try to take it to the rim or will take a 3 point shot. The biggest difference in terms of his perimeter shooting shot selection between him and a lot of other #1 wing scorers who take ~6-6.5 3's per game is they take 3-4 midrange shots per game versus Edwards 1-2 shots.
Huge 3 point volume on great efficiency: So, Edwards does a really good job of avoiding inefficient shots like the midrange, well how well does he do? In fact, almost 96% of Edwards shots could be considered 'good' shots as either 3 point shots or non-midrange 2 point shots. This includes just under 50% of his shots (46-47%) being 3 pointers. I think this is the area that some focus on when they talk about shot selection issues and relate it to the idea that Edwards should be driving to the rim more. However, I would argue the opposite. Edwards perimeter shooting is not only a strength, but he's one of the best primary scoring options at generating points from the perimeter in the league. This part of Edwards game is a huge strength and one of the biggest reasons why he is looking like he's building a foundation that maps well to that of an above average #1 scoring option.
If Edwards is going to be a star and a #1 scoring option, he's going to be a star not because he's limiting his 3 point jump shots but because his ability to create and knock down perimeter jump shots and his ability to string together multiple makes quickly from the perimeter is going to be the part of his game that allows him to be more consistent as a player by opening up spacing for the Wolves offense and Edwards driving lanes.
Edwards is elite or borderline elite at generating turnovers and turning those into easy points Edwards has grown into a player this season who is among the best in the league at generating turnovers and turning those into easy buckets in the form of transition 3's and fast break points. This commitment is another step in Edwards game that should be thought of as a step forward that Edwards has taken to improve the overall efficiency of his shot selection and impact as a player.
Edwards has emphasized making an impact in transition generating easy buckets: In addition, Edwards usage profile has changed in a couple of other ways this season that are interesting. First, he has increased the percentage of his points that are fast break points and points off turnovers from 11.1% and 15.5% to 17.4% and 21.3% this year. There is likely some overlap between the two numbers, but it's clear that Edwards has made the transition game more of an emphasis in his game than his rookie season. Basically, Edwards has gone from roughly 2 points per game in transition to 4 points per game. This puts him roughly in the 20-25 range in terms of fast break points per game.
In addition, Edwards ~5 points per game off of turnovers put him roughly tied for 1st in the league with Lavine/Anunoby. This increase in points off of turnovers and fast break points is also likely almost directly a cause of Edwards averaging almost 2 steals per game (1.7) ranking him just outside the top 10 and his 2.5 STOCKS per game which also ranks in the 10-15 range in the NBA for generating turnoveres. Edwards has taken a step forward not only as a shooter, but as a player who creates turnovers on the defensive end and turns those into points on the offensive end.
Edwards takes more shots at the rim than almost any other wing in the NBA I think most Wolves fans would be surprised by this, but understand it as related to the common discussion around Edwards shooting perimeter jump shots versus getting to the rim. This data is a little bit interesting as well. Edwards doesn't take a lot of inefficient 2 point shots, he only takes about 1.5 shots per game between 10-20 feet (though he takes another ~1 shot per game from 5-9 feet which is inside the paint but not at the rim). The majority of #1/#2 scoring wing options take significantly more, even Harden and Giannis take 3-4 shots from 10-19 feet and more shots than Edwards from that awkward floater range.
In addition, Edwards actually ranks much higher than expected in shot attempts at the rim or inside of 5 feet. Edwards for the season averages just under 7 "shots at the rim" per game (though that number is down to 6.5 per game over the 23 game stretch where he's been slightly more of a shooter). This ranks in the 10-20 range for all NBA players in the league and in the 7-12 range among NBA players who aren't lob bigs (i.e. Clint Capela/Rudy Gobert).
This means that some of the narrative around Edwards shot selection and how often he gets to the rim per game is off in some ways at least at the surface although I believe there is something to pull at further there which I will later. Could Edwards get to the rim more? Sure. However, he's top 10 in the league among #1/#2 options (including Giannis, Sabonis, Jokic, Towns, and Davis in this sample) at getting to the rim. Among, non-bigs he's behind only Russell Westbrook and Lebron James for the season and Miles Bridges, Morant, and Shai Alexander if you look at the 23 game sample that I referenced for his shooting splits.
In some ways, in terms of true 'wings' and not #1 scoring option big men or freaks like Lebron/Giannis outside of Russ (and maybe even including Russ), Edwards has an argument for the most dominant and highest frequency true 'wing' or guard at the rim in the league. Edwards gets to the rim more often or as much as any wing/guard in the league and an elite amount even factoring in Giannis/Lebron and the #1 option big men.
There is a natural argument that could be made that Edwards being a league leader in fast break points could mean that sure he's getting to the rim a lot but not often in the halfcourt. I am not going to go into the data, but he actually gets to the rim in the halfcourt as much or more as the majority of other #1/#2 volume scoring wings at around 5 times per game.
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What does this shot profile mean? Edwards as an overall scorer.
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Edwards is among the league leaders in shots at the rim, fastbreak points and attempts, 3 point shot attempts, and attempts among the lowest midrange shots among #1/#2 scoring options in the league. In addition, Edwards is one of the highest efficiency scoring #1/#2 option scores as a perimeter shooter and as a threat to create easy baskets in transition and off of turnovers. How have these improvements in terms of his shot selection translated to how he compares to other #1/#2 options?
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Edwards as a scorer from the floor (TS%)
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I sorted by Edwards 25 game stretch since November 8th and added additional filters for playing time and FGA (25 min and 14 attempts) to simulate #1/#2 option players (68 players). During this stretch of games, Edwards ranks 12th at 55%. This means that Edwards as a shooter from the floor has been tied for the 12th most efficient shooter from the floor during this recent stretch among #1/#2 options in the NBA. The data on Edwards this season suggests that he's not developing into an elite shotmaker on #1 option type volume, but that he may already be there now.
Edwards efficiency as a shooter on the floor over the last 25 games has been borderline elite only surpassed by a couple of other primary scoring options. Even including his 8 game cold shooting stretch to the season, he's still performed at well above average efficiency for his role this season compared to other players in the NBA with similar roles.
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Edwards as a scorer as a whole (TS%)
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Edwards drops in efficiency as a scorer in general when factoring in all of the potential ways to score including free throws. Among 68 players that we've classified as #1/#2 options based on the filter, Edwards has ranked 17th over that stretch. If you remove the #2/#3 options
This means that he goes from basically ranking as the 15th best #1 option as a shooter from the floor or the 10th best as a perimeter scorer to the 25th most efficient #1/#2 scorer in the league and 12th best true wing #1/#2 scoring option when removing #1/#2 option bigs including Giannis.
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Conclusions about Edwards development as a #1a/#1b level scoring wing
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In both scoring efficiency data sets, there appears to be a few different types of players that appear in this group of 68 players representing players taking 14+ shots per game and providing offensive output that equates to or contributes to providing #1/#2 level offense.
The group in this sample seems to contain players that are asked to fill a variety of roles from both the #1 scorer and playmaker for an offense to #1 scorer/playmakers but secondary playmaking to players on teams that don't have #1 or #1a scorers or playmakers in roles or may have those roles filled, but don't have a #1a or even a true #2 and require either a full scoring or playmaking by committee approach or scoring/playmaking by committee supporting a #1 scorer, playmaker, or both.
The only non-offense-by committee offensive players that are more efficient from the floor Edwards are a handful of players such as Lebron, Lavine, Trae, Giannis, Jokic, and Towns. Edwards leads a next group of #1a/#1b level scoring options that include Mitchell, Curry, Durant, and Morant. Sprinkled around them are guys such as (Wiggins, Jrue, Van Fleet, Rozier, Bane, Garland, and a couple of others) that represent players with usage rates at the lower end of the filtered group that are sharing a role with 1/2/3 others to combine to produce the level of offense produced by #1, #1b, or #2a options.
As an overall scorer and not just a shooter, Edwards slides down a little bit and gets passed by other #1a/#1b or elite #2 scoring wing options like Derozan, Tatum, and Mitchell and gets passed by players like Durant below him because Edwards does not get to the free throw line as much as other similar players in similar roles.
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Edwards looks to be playing himself into the tier that Lavine, Mitchell, Tatum, Booker, Derozan, George and other scoring wings with limitations (playmaking, defense, shooting) occupy or have occupy right before our eyes
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That being said, this 25 game sample clearly shows that Edwards is kind of quietly taking another jump during his sophomore season from a level below similar players like Mitchell, Booker, Tatum and others to that level as an offensive player if his improved numbers over this stretch that now represents roughly 30% of the season holds. Edwards has the same areas of improvement that the group above had and still has to some extent in terms of reaching the next level and starting to be talked about along with the truly elite #1 options.
Edwards will need to improve as a ball handler, decision maker, and playmaker and passer to reach a Kawhi/Luka/Butler level in his prime type level and be considered a top 10 player. However, if Edwards continues to play at the level he is playing at there is no reason that he shouldn't be considered in the 10-20 range or so with wings or where wings in their prime such as Lavine, Tatum, Mitchell, Booker, Derozan, George and Beal others have been placed as wings who are elite scorers but have question marks about their ability to be primary playmakers, are below average defenders, or both.
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Edwards offensive efficiency or production shouldn't be surprising given his shot selection and areas of his game that he's focused on improving and emphasizing
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Edwards is not the inefficient player that he is known by casual fans (and even Wolves fans to be) that has a suboptimal shot selection and doesn't work off ball. In fact, in many ways Edwards is actually the complete opposite. His shot selection is, when compared to other #1 perimeter scoring options, is both one of the best, if not the best, optimized shot selection in terms of percentage/number of shots that are high-efficiency but also a shot selection that limits low-efficiency shots arguably better than any #1 perimeter scoring options shot selection in the NBA.
Edwards doesn't just have an efficient shot selection, but he leads the league in volume on a lot of the most efficient types of shots as well. Edwards is among the best players in the league at generating turnovers and directly turning those turnovers into efficient fast break points for himself--he's the league leader in points off turnovers and among the league leaders in fast break points per game. In addition, Edwards is in the top 10-15 in the NBA in terms of shots at the rim per game. If you shrinken that sample size to wings and remove bigs, it's only Lebron and Westbrook in front of him. There is an argument that Edwards is the highest impact/most physical wing at the rim in the league when you combine how disruptive he is and impactful on transition as well and not just half court.
He's not only just in the conversation for the player that generates the most points off turnovers, the most fast break points, and the most attempts at the rim but he's also among the league leaders in 3 point volume. He doesn't just take one of the largest volumes of 3 point shots either, but he hits more 3's at that volume than every other volume 3 point shooter or #1 perimeter scoring player in the league. During this 25 game stretch, he's 8th in the NBA in 3pt% at 39.5% among NBA players shooting 12 or more shots per game + 6 or more 3 point shots per game and 11th in the NBA in 3 point percentage if you lower that threshold to 10. When you compare Edwards to other players who take and make the most 3's in the NBA, he still stands out among them.
This is a player profile that suggests an offensive player who, with average efficiency alone, could be an average #1 perimeter scorer because of the number of a clear emphasis in terms of playstyle on forcing and generating points off of turnovers, looking for easy transition bucket opportunities, a focus on getting to the rim, and an awareness and focus on limiting midrange jump shots and turning those instead into 3 point shots. The fact that Edwards is trending towards being an above average/elite shooter, hits the free throws he does get, and is an above average finisher at the rim suggests an offensive player that might already be close to the offensive level of some wings we consider stars or borderline stars and he's only 20 years old.
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What does Edwards need to work on to continue to progress? Where does he go from here?
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Edwards path forward as an offensive player is not to shoot less from the perimeter, but to improve in other ways as an offensive player to run more possession through him because of improvements he makes as a ball handler and decision maker to allow for offensive possessions that not only end in good outcomes for Ant but also for teammates as well. Surprisingly, this isn't that different from a lot of other star wing scorers. However, similar development questions will remain until he answers them or doesn't around if Edwards is a player that can be your leading scorer or if this is a player you can build an entire offense around.
This improvement would lead to more touches and usage for Ant that would lead to additional shooting volume in the paint and at the rim that would lead to the additional attempts at the rim and free throws that Wolves fans tend to at times hope for from Ant. The biggest reason that Ant does not have more attempts at the rim is because he is relatively limited in the types of actions that he can run inside the penetration and even starting from the perimeter as a ball handler.
Today, he is very reliant on isolation action and some simple two man action with a big as a ball handler—further even in these types of actions at this stage in his career the intended outcome is an Ant bucket in the majority of possessions. Edwards has shown some improvement as a passer, but the majority of time it’s simple reads to the corner or to a popping big man many times because he’s been cut off from a lane to the rim or he’s pre-decided on that action.
Edwards ability to navigate east and west as a ball-handler inside of the perimeter and run additional types of more nuanced offensive action will lead towards Edwards having more shot attempts inside the paint, lower the degree of difficulty on his finishes at the rim (compared to isolation attempts that require beating his man to the rim and then finishing against contesting bigs), and ultimately help him get to the free throw rim more often as well. Once Edwards becomes more patient as a ball-handler and an offensive attacker, he will be able to play in more control and attack defenders to draw fouls rather than flying at 100% speed to the rim and relying on his reaction, athleticism, and strength and reaction time to finish.
Edwards can also make incremental improvements in his ability to draw fouls and finish at the rim. I do believe that he should probably earn a few more calls than he currently does today. However, I think that the majority of the reasoning behind lower free throw attempts per game despite his close to league lead number of attempts at the rim per game is because other players may have similar or fewer attempts at the rim, but in general they may have more touches that bring them inside the perimeter and to the paint because of a greater ability to run more types of action that lead to contact where Edwards offensive involvement usually is a possession that involves an Edwards touch that leads to a shot or potentially a drive and kick or Edwards is largely standing in the corner or at the top of the corner of the circle and not that involved off ball if he isn't involved in the primary action.
If Edwards was able to be involved in more types of actions both as the primary action, but also as the secondary action and as the primary action as part of an action that's primary goal isn't an Edwards basket. If Edwards were to more consistently emphasize moving without the ball as the primary action he isn't involved in happens he may get more attempts at the rim against defenses that aren't set against him. Edwards is skilled enough to be able to beat defenses and he's added a couple of new flavors that allow him to generate more easy baskets, but he doesn't make it easy for himself and I think it's because he doesn't make it easy for himself that he doesn't put himself in position to get fouled more or he maximizes the degree of difficulty that he has to execute on his shots.
Note: I do want to do additional deep dives on some of Edwards areas of weakness to see if there are improvements or interesting insights. Edwards has shown improvement in a couple of interesting areas, but he still needs to improve as a half court finisher at the rim, as a cutter off ball, and in the other areas I called out offensively above and do eventually want to go deeper on and attach data to as well. I also eventually want to look at Edwards on the defensive end. I did touch on the statistic around his improvement in terms of becoming one of the better perimeter defenders in terms of creating disruptions & turnovers that lead to transition offense. However, I also want to better understand how Edwards has changed as a defender outside of the eye test (I think in some ways at least he's improved)
