Trade Talk (Part Nine) (READ FIRST POST)

[Mamba4Goat]

How does everyone feel about trading Naz? I’m relatively okay with it.

[shrink]

Would people be happy with a Beasley for Covington swap or disappointed?

I’d be worried, but I’d probably do it.

I think a I’ve mentioned that the Wolves are #1 in 3PA, but only 22nd in 3P%. The way we play, it is dangerous to trade away three point shooting. Beasley seems to be improving, shooting over 36% 3P% in December and January, but he really needs to be closer to 40% since it is all he gives. Covington isn’t the three point shooter Beasley is, but his help defense would be nice, and his ability to hit a spot up three would mean he needs to be guarded at the three point line. He has the added benefit of being KAT’s buddy, and he comes in already knowing his tendencies.

I think a third team is needed here. Beasley doesn’t fit with CJ McCollum and Anfernee Simons, but the trade value is probably similar.

[Mattya]

How does everyone feel about trading Naz? I’m relatively okay with it.

I’ve also been thinking this is probably necessary. Good player, but he just can’t play with KAT. If I’m paying decent money for a back up I’m hoping he can play with our best player who is versatile enough to play 4 and 5.

[andyhop]

Would people be happy with a Beasley for Covington swap or disappointed?

I’d be worried, but I’d probably do it.

.

As i asked Klomp what incentive are you giving the Blazers to make the deal?

[King Malta]

How does everyone feel about trading Naz? I’m relatively okay with it.

I’ve also been thinking this is probably necessary. Good player, but he just can’t play with KAT. If I’m paying decent money for a back up I’m hoping he can play with our best player who is versatile enough to play 4 and 5.

I think he's good enough to get us a nice return on the market before the difficult decision over his extension needs to be made. The only issue is that we'd either need to get a competent big back as part of that trade or as part of a trade made almost immediately after.

What would we need to include with him to have a realistic chance of getting Turner back from Indiana?

Beasley, Reid, a heavily protected first?

[Mattya]

How does everyone feel about trading Naz? I’m relatively okay with it.

I’ve also been thinking this is probably necessary. Good player, but he just can’t play with KAT. If I’m paying decent money for a back up I’m hoping he can play with our best player who is versatile enough to play 4 and 5.

I think he's good enough to get us a nice return on the market before the difficult decision over his extension needs to be made. The only issue is that we'd either need to get a competent big back as part of that trade or as part of a trade made almost immediately after.

What would we need to include with him to have a realistic chance of getting Turner back from Indiana?

Beasley, Reid, a heavily protected first?

I’m not in the trade for a starting big camp. Vando’s defense and improvement on offense has been so important to our success. I think we could trade Naz + for a starting SF and replace Naz’s offense in other ways. Go out and sign Cousins or WCS depending on what they want. Or go a get a big like Ibaka since he has seemed to be open to being traded all season.

[Neeva]

How does everyone feel about trading Naz? I’m relatively okay with it.

Yep, teams that would be interested are Raptors and Hornets IMO.
Naz, Bolmaro for PJ Washington?
Naz, Okogie, for Boucher, 2nd?

[andyhop]

How does everyone feel about trading Naz? I’m relatively okay with it.

I’ve also been thinking this is probably necessary. Good player, but he just can’t play with KAT. If I’m paying decent money for a back up I’m hoping he can play with our best player who is versatile enough to play 4 and 5.

I think he's good enough to get us a nice return on the market before the difficult decision over his extension needs to be made. The only issue is that we'd either need to get a competent big back as part of that trade or as part of a trade made almost immediately after.

What would we need to include with him to have a realistic chance of getting Turner back from Indiana?

Beasley, Reid, a heavily protected first?

They want 2 firsts supposedly so that offer isn't in the ballpark

[winforlose]

I’ve also been thinking this is probably necessary. Good player, but he just can’t play with KAT. If I’m paying decent money for a back up I’m hoping he can play with our best player who is versatile enough to play 4 and 5.

I think he's good enough to get us a nice return on the market before the difficult decision over his extension needs to be made. The only issue is that we'd either need to get a competent big back as part of that trade or as part of a trade made almost immediately after.

What would we need to include with him to have a realistic chance of getting Turner back from Indiana?

Beasley, Reid, a heavily protected first?

They want 2 firsts supposedly so that offer isn't in the ballpark

Actually that offer is the ballpark. 2 firsts or 1st and a promising young player. A 22 year old backup center who recently had a 20/10 game counts. Moreover, Naz’s numbers are solid during the times KAT was out and he was starting. If you are giving up Turner you need someone to replace him, and that could be Naz.

[shrink]

Would people be happy with a Beasley for Covington swap or disappointed?

I’d be worried, but I’d probably do it.

As i asked Klomp what incentive are you giving the Blazers to make the deal?

Not a lot. Covington is just a rental. Both he and Beasley started the season poorly, and both have been doing better lately. Covington lost his starting job in POR until recently, and he would be a bench player here as well.

As far as I know, there is nothing wrong with Beasley physically or mentally, and I suspect that given enough time and shots, he will regress to his mean, which is a 40% 3P shooter. His contract is just one more year if he doesn’t, but has the upside of a team option for an extra season if he performs well. Three point shooting is down all over the league this year, so the skill is coveted by many teams.

I’d include a 2nd - a 1st is too much. I’d probably include cash as well. Some of this value to us is because it saves us $2 mil under the lux. Again, I’d point out this is a three way trade, unless POR trades McCollum and gets some cap relief. As is, POR doesn’t need Beasley, and they are $3 mil over the lux and will likely seek to remove salary this year, not add it.

[minimus]

Do you see anyone in similar to Vando, Beasley situation who is worth to acquire? I mean we pay late FRP or SRP to acquire a player with Bird rights to match any RFA offer

[shrink]

I think he's good enough to get us a nice return on the market before the difficult decision over his extension needs to be made. The only issue is that we'd either need to get a competent big back as part of that trade or as part of a trade made almost immediately after.

What would we need to include with him to have a realistic chance of getting Turner back from Indiana?

Beasley, Reid, a heavily protected first?

They want 2 firsts supposedly so that offer isn't in the ballpark

Actually that offer is the ballpark. 2 firsts or 1st and a promising young player. A 22 year old backup center who recently had a 20/10 game counts. Moreover, Naz’s numbers are solid during the times KAT was out and he was starting. If you are giving up Turner you need someone to replace him, and that could be Naz.

Yes, and that price was requested before Myles Turner broke his foot, and may be out for the rest of the season.

I’m with Mattya that I don’t want to push Vando to the bench by bringing in a starting big in front of him, even if Turner became fully healthy. I still believe Naz could be a starting center for a half dozen teams, so he has late 1st value. He could be a likely trade asset as well because he does have more value to other teams than to us. However, he should become more useful to us this season in the playoffs. as rotations tighten, because he can play like a poor man’s Towns, spreading the floor at the five to allow our other starters to play the same way when KAT is on the bench. We still need a back up heavy big when we match up against huge teams, but I think we listen to offers now but may keep him to the end of this season, extend him, and he becomes a more likely trade candidate then. If we trade in the off-season for an upgrade somewhere, it also gives Finch several months to work his magic and find a team balance.

[winforlose]

They want 2 firsts supposedly so that offer isn't in the ballpark

Actually that offer is the ballpark. 2 firsts or 1st and a promising young player. A 22 year old backup center who recently had a 20/10 game counts. Moreover, Naz’s numbers are solid during the times KAT was out and he was starting. If you are giving up Turner you need someone to replace him, and that could be Naz.

Yes, and that price was requested before Myles Turner broke his foot, and may be out for the rest of the season.

I’m with Mattya that I don’t want to push Vando to the bench by bringing in a starting big in front of him, even if Turner became fully healthy. I still believe Naz could be a starting center for a half dozen teams, so he has late 1st value. He could be a likely trade asset as well because he does have more value to other teams than to us. However, he should become more useful to us this season in the playoffs. as rotations tighten, because he can play like a poor man’s Towns, spreading the floor at the five to allow our other starters to play the same way when KAT is on the bench. We still need a back up heavy big when we match up against huge teams, but I think we listen to offers now but may keep him to the end of this season, extend him, and he becomes a more likely trade candidate then. If we trade in the off-season for an upgrade somewhere, it also gives Finch several months to work his magic and find a team balance.

I have said it many times before and I will say it again, V8 must stay in the starting lineup and play the SF. As long as the PF or C can hit 3s we lose nothing by moving Bev to the bench. Ant is getting more comfortable initiating and KAT is taking more guys off the dribble. Does anyone doubt V8 can guard SFs? How is extra size and rebounding a bad thing?

Also, I am fine with a bunch of other impact bigs, I just think we a 15/10 or 20/10 guy next to KAT. He must also be able to shoot the 3 at around league average and be a decent defender (not all nba level, but not a liability.)

[shrink]

Do you see anyone in similar to Vando, Beasley situation who is worth to acquire? I mean we pay late FRP or SRP to acquire a player with Bird rights to match any RFA offer

I just wanted to mention something I’ve heard about briefly from John Hollinger, which he calls the “Bird rights trap.”

Suppose we give up a 1st and Naz and get Joseph Nurkic, who is on a $12 mil expiring. Now suppose he balls out for the rest of season next to KAT, providing overwhelming defense, and is putting up double doubles every night. We’re thrilled to get that production, plus we have his Bird rights, and we want to keep him.

The problem is that if he plays this well, other teams want him too. His agent will go out and try to find a lucrative offer. Teams with cap space may overpay to get him, and include player-friendly options and up-front money to make that offer as unappealing to the Wolves as possible. Let’s say, $100 mil over four years. He then comes back to us, and says, “Beat that - you can afford it, you have my Bird rights.” Do we overpay? Or do we sacrifice the sunk cost of the 1st and Naz for a what turned out to be a half season rental?

Bird rights are a useful tool for teams that wants to quickly add salary (and talent), and don’t care about going over the lux. I’m not sure that describes MIN next year - it still feels a little early, especially since we know we will get expensive in the future and then have to face the repeater tax. My guess is that we don’t do a lot at the deadline unless we get a good deal, and this summer we let our expirings expire, we re-sign Beverley, offer KAT (and maybe DLo) and extension, use the MLE, and perhaps trade the Beasley + extended package then.

[winforlose]

Do you see anyone in similar to Vando, Beasley situation who is worth to acquire? I mean we pay late FRP or SRP to acquire a player with Bird rights to match any RFA offer

I just wanted to mention something I’ve heard about briefly from John Hollinger, which he calls the “Bird rights trap.”

Suppose we gives up a 1st and Naz and get Joseph Nurkic, who is on a $12 mil expiring. Now suppose he balls out for the rest of season next to KAT, providing overwhelming defense, and is putting up double doubles every night. We’re thrilled to get that production, plus we have his Bird rights, and we want to keep him.

The problem is that if he plays this well, other teams want him too. His agent will go out and try to find a tremendous offer. Teams with cap space may overpay to get him, and include player-friendly options and up-front money to make that offer as unappealing to the Wolves as possible. Let’s say, $100 mil over four years. He then comes back to us, and says, “Beat that - you can afford it, you have my Bird rights.” Do we overpay? Or do we sacrifice the sunk cost of the 1st and Naz for a what turned out to be a half season rental?

Bird rights are a useful tool for teams that wants to quickly add salary (and talent), and don’t care about going over the lux. I’m not sure that describes MIN next year - it still feels a little early, especially since we know we will get expensive in the future and then have to face the repeater tax. My guess is that we don’t do a lot at the deadline unless we get a good deal, and this summer we let our expirings expire, we re-sign Beverley, offer KAT (and maybe DLo) and extension, use the MLE, and perhaps trade the Beasley + extended package then.

Three things bring in the super revenue needed to run a long term tax team. 1. National tv money. I haven’t seen anything on this recently, but I believe national TV games generate quite a bit of extra revenue. Especially because it airs simulcast on BSN. 2. Home playoff games. Between seats, concessions, and kickbacks from hotels and local business running promotions with the wolves it is a potential gold mine of revenue that non playoff teams never touch. Obviously being the better record and getting home court advantage gets you at least one more of these gsmes, but the more series you play the more money you make. Also tying back to point 1, the playoff games make national tv revenue as well. 3. Merchandise sales both locally and nationally go along with winning. More people will wear Dlo, Ant, KAT and other player merch if we are winning and getting national attention.

Winning teams use this revenue to buy talent and that talent attracts even more talent. It is a bit chicken and egg in our situation. We cannot get to the next level without spending money, but we cannot make what we need to support going into the tax without first going into the tax. Worse still, teams like GSW, Brooklyn, both LAs are turning this into a big money league. If we are going to stay below the tax and pinch pennies we will be like the Twins. The small money payroll that may get to the playoffs but will never be a serious threat barring that one big break (or in our case 2, 1987 and 1991.) I mean we have only advanced into the playoffs once and that 2003-2004. It’s time to spend the money, buy the fire power, and storm up to the 4 seed.

[shrink]

For the record, I think it’s very likely we would pay the lux - just not immediately. We’re still the second youngest team in the NBA, and there could be a lot of variation and emerging players two years from now. I always thought Taylor would go into the lux for a winner, and I think that’s even truer for ARod and Lore.

I did want to mention one other thing for people to consider - the new TV deal, in 2024. The salary cap could jump from this year’s $112 mil to a projected $175 mil, a 50% jump. This makes a Towns extension, even at the max, a bargain, and may mean we extend DLo too if we can get enough years on the end. Unless they have cap smoothing (I think it’s likely, but I haven’t heard anyone talking about it yet), most teams might not have to worry about the lux in 2024-25 .. they just can’t add enough salary fast enough to get there.

[Biff Cooper]

Is there a decent player comparison out there for Naz Reid to give us a better feel for what he will command for a new contract? Lauri Markinen?

Naz probably is worth more to a team that doesn't have another very good center on the roster. He has a lot of value on our team, and I would prefer not losing him, but I could see him wanting to get more playing time and another team wanting to give it to him. Since we still have RFA rights, if we think we can sign him to a deal less than $10M a year, I think I prefer keeping him.

[IceManBK1]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/265579/Hawks-Looking-For-First-Round-Pick-And-Starter-for-John-Collins&ved=2ahUKEwidqby-rtL1AhUJl3IEHVi8DDEQ0PADKAB6BAhiEAE&usg=AOvVaw05R1v-3aFwU4QsaHT7NhEv

Beasley plus top 10 protected first for Collins. But don't think he likes being 4th option here.

[IceManBK1]

Read on Twitter

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I would love for us to get Randle for maybe OKogie, Beasley and a 1st. Randle is a beast on the boards. Sets great picks and gives another beast at attacking the rim and drive and dish when Edward is on the bench. Plus he and dlo had great chemistry running pnr when they were on Lakers. And Randle is improved with an outside shot now.

[winforlose]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I would love for us to get Randle for maybe OKogie, Beasley and a 1st. Randle is a beast on the boards. Sets great picks and gives another beast at attacking the rim and drive and dish when Edward is on the bench. Plus he and dlo had great chemistry running pnr when they were on Lakers. And Randle is improved with an outside shot now.

One of two things is true. 1, NY is blowing it up and are looking to stock up on picks and young talent. 2, NY is not blowing it up and trying to make the play in if not the playoffs. If they blow it up your package might work if we add another pick. If not they would need an impact player like Collins, Grant, Siakam, ect…

I actually like the idea of giving a similar package for Turner and flip Turner to NY for Randle in a 3 team deal. I like Randle more than Turner in terms of playing with KAT.