Trade Talk (Part Nine) (READ FIRST POST)

[IceManBK1]

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I would love for us to get Randle for maybe OKogie, Beasley and a 1st. Randle is a beast on the boards. Sets great picks and gives another beast at attacking the rim and drive and dish when Edward is on the bench. Plus he and dlo had great chemistry running pnr when they were on Lakers. And Randle is improved with an outside shot now.

One of two things is true. 1, NY is blowing it up and are looking to stock up on picks and young talent. 2, NY is not blowing it up and trying to make the play in if not the playoffs. If they blow it up your package might work if we add another pick. If not they would need an impact player like Collins, Grant, Siakam, ect…

I actually like the idea of giving a similar package for Turner and flip Turner to NY for Randle in a 3 team deal. I like Randle more than Turner in terms of playing with KAT.

Yea Randle would make opposing bigs work hard.. He's a beast in the paint. He's great at finding shooters on drive and kicks. Edwards, dlo and towns will feast on the perimeter.

[Klomp]

Do you see anyone in similar to Vando, Beasley situation who is worth to acquire? I mean we pay late FRP or SRP to acquire a player with Bird rights to match any RFA offer

I just wanted to mention something I’ve heard about briefly from John Hollinger, which he calls the “Bird rights trap.”

Suppose we give up a 1st and Naz and get Joseph Nurkic, who is on a $12 mil expiring. Now suppose he balls out for the rest of season next to KAT, providing overwhelming defense, and is putting up double doubles every night. We’re thrilled to get that production, plus we have his Bird rights, and we want to keep him.

The problem is that if he plays this well, other teams want him too. His agent will go out and try to find a lucrative offer. Teams with cap space may overpay to get him, and include player-friendly options and up-front money to make that offer as unappealing to the Wolves as possible. Let’s say, $100 mil over four years. He then comes back to us, and says, “Beat that - you can afford it, you have my Bird rights.” Do we overpay? Or do we sacrifice the sunk cost of the 1st and Naz for a what turned out to be a half season rental?

Bird rights are a useful tool for teams that wants to quickly add salary (and talent), and don’t care about going over the lux. I’m not sure that describes MIN next year - it still feels a little early, especially since we know we will get expensive in the future and then have to face the repeater tax. My guess is that we don’t do a lot at the deadline unless we get a good deal, and this summer we let our expirings expire, we re-sign Beverley, offer KAT (and maybe DLo) and extension, use the MLE, and perhaps trade the Beasley + extended package then.

I think minimus is asking more for guys who are RFAs this summer. UFAs are definitely traps, but RFAs not so much.

I need to do a longer deep dive. Aaron Holiday is one example of a guy in this mold, as is PJ Washington.

[life_saver]

Pls..no Randle. Have people not watched him play? He is neither efficient nor a good enough player offensively for the kind of role and salary he is on. He had an outlier shooting from 3 last year when they played with no crowds and now it has regressed badly back to his previous averages.

[Mattya]

I get people want someone who can get into the paint, but why Randle at his price considering his weaknesses and fit? You’re gonna bench Vando for Randle? That would be an awful move.

[jpatrick]

Randle has relationships with DLo and KAT. That’s good.

Lots of bad though. According to Knicks fans, after getting paid this offseason, he’s been horrid. Doesn’t try on day. Cares only about getting his own. Is holding back young players. Some weird thing between Randle and the Knicks fans where he is now enemy #1 and gets booed.

Also, while he shot better last year, his shot has regressed to where it was every year before last year. I think he’s only about 29% from 3. You can’t play him and Vando together. And if he’s really been bad on D, you can’t have KAT and Randle be you’re starting bigs. We’d get torched.

I like the idea, just not sure he’s the guy we acquire at a pricetag of nearly 30m per year plus having to give up assets.

[IceManBK1]

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good news maybe? gotta pull the trigger if he's healthy.

[winforlose]

Randle has relationships with DLo and KAT. That’s good.

Lots of bad though. According to Knicks fans, after getting paid this offseason, he’s been horrid. Doesn’t try on day. Cares only about getting his own. Is holding back young players. Some weird thing between Randle and the Knicks fans where he is now enemy #1 and gets booed.

Also, while he shot better last year, his shot has regressed to where it was every year before last year. I think he’s only about 29% from 3. You can’t play him and Vando together. And if he’s really been bad on D, you can’t have KAT and Randle be you’re starting bigs. We’d get torched.

I like the idea, just not sure he’s the guy we acquire at a pricetag of nearly 30m per year plus having to give up assets.

This is my response to everyone else saying no above as well.

1. Randle is either the first or second priority for opposing defenses on any given night. Barrett is usually the other from my admittedly limited understanding. Here he would be 3rd or 4th defensive priority with KAT and Ant being 1 and 2. He would therefore be open more and hopefully have a corresponding increase in efficiency.

2. The defensive role I envision for him is to stay near the paint and basically use his 6’9 245 frame to defend the rolling Cs when KAT is away from the paint. Let Ant, Dlo, and V8 do the run outs, we need someone with bulk to take away opponents paint scoring. I would further point out that playing with a young hungry team and having Bev and Finch in your ear might get Randle to care more about D. No offense to Thibs, but your either one of his guys or your not, and I assume he is not based on his unhappiness in NY.

3. Randle will have trade value come next offseason if he doesn’t fit well here. By raising our payroll now with a bigger contract we have more flexibility for subsequent moves. So the risk is kinda low.

4. We badly need defensive rebounding and Randle averages 8 a game to go along with 9.9 rebounds per game. There are worse things then a 10/10 or 15/10 player making 23 and 25 mil over the next 2 years. By the time he gets to 27 we will either love him and keep him or have moved him for someone who fits better.

Edit to clarify, Beverly to bench unit, V8 to PF.

[wolves_89]

I really hope Randle is not on the Wolves potential trade target list. He got paid for what is looking very much like an outlier season. Being stuck paying him a large amount through the 2025-26 season seems like an incredibly bad idea.

[moss_is_1]

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good news maybe? gotta pull the trigger if he's healthy.

I just don't think we make a big trade to upset our starting 5. Upgrade our bench, then wait for the offseason to see what we have in year 2 under Finch.

[winforlose]

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good news maybe? gotta pull the trigger if he's healthy.

I just don't think we make a big trade to upset our starting 5. Upgrade our bench, then wait for the offseason to see what we have in year 2 under Finch.

We know what we have. We have Beasley who fell apart, Prince who way underperformed, Layman and JMAC who are end of bench dead weight, Nowell who should have had minutes for most of the season, and inconsistent yet potential filled Naz, MCD, and Leo. Waiting only serves to run out the clock on Glen Taylor. That said, Gupta wants to stay which means he needs to make a move, and we desperately need another big.

Our defense is a joke right now. Any team can get a wide open corner 3 at will. Also, lob dunks and uncontested putback layups/lay-ins/dunks are way too common. We need size in the paint to rebound and defend. Wasting a year won’t change that. What it will change is that we have a ton of value contracts because they are expiring. Layman 4 mil, Prince 13, JO around 4 mil, Beasley becomes a 15 mil expiring next year which some teams will value. This is the time, and the fans deserve more than a 7 or 8 seed play in. Rather than facing the Suns or Warriors let’s make a move to get us to 4-6 and play Utah, or Memphis, or Dallas. The extra revenue will make staying in the tax easier, and as is clear from the crazy payrolls at the top, things will change in the league one way or the other soon enough.

[moss_is_1]

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good news maybe? gotta pull the trigger if he's healthy.

I just don't think we make a big trade to upset our starting 5. Upgrade our bench, then wait for the offseason to see what we have in year 2 under Finch.

We know what we have. We have Beasley who fell apart, Prince who way underperformed, Layman and JMAC who are end of bench dead weight, Nowell who should have had minutes for most of the season, and inconsistent yet potential filled Naz, MCD, and Leo. Waiting only serves to run out the clock on Glen Taylor. That said, Gupta wants to stay which means he needs to make a move, and we desperately need another big.

Our defense is a joke right now. Any team can get a wide open corner 3 at will. Also, lob dunks and uncontested putback layups/lay-ins/dunks are way too common. We need size in the paint to rebound and defend. Wasting a year won’t change that. What it will change is that we have a ton of value contracts because they are expiring. Layman 4 mil, Prince 13, JO around 4 mil, Beasley becomes a 15 mil expiring next year which some teams will value. This is the time, and the fans deserve more than a 7 or 8 seed play in. Rather than facing the Suns or Warriors let’s make a move to get us to 4-6 and play Utah, or Memphis, or Dallas. The extra revenue will make staying in the tax easier, and as is clear from the crazy payrolls at the top, things will change in the league one way or the other soon enough.

You mentioned just bench guys though, so why not upgrade our bench and see what we have? Allow Vando to keep improving with the starting 5. If we trade for Turner, Vando becomes much less effective.

[winforlose]

I just don't think we make a big trade to upset our starting 5. Upgrade our bench, then wait for the offseason to see what we have in year 2 under Finch.

We know what we have. We have Beasley who fell apart, Prince who way underperformed, Layman and JMAC who are end of bench dead weight, Nowell who should have had minutes for most of the season, and inconsistent yet potential filled Naz, MCD, and Leo. Waiting only serves to run out the clock on Glen Taylor. That said, Gupta wants to stay which means he needs to make a move, and we desperately need another big.

Our defense is a joke right now. Any team can get a wide open corner 3 at will. Also, lob dunks and uncontested putback layups/lay-ins/dunks are way too common. We need size in the paint to rebound and defend. Wasting a year won’t change that. What it will change is that we have a ton of value contracts because they are expiring. Layman 4 mil, Prince 13, JO around 4 mil, Beasley becomes a 15 mil expiring next year which some teams will value. This is the time, and the fans deserve more than a 7 or 8 seed play in. Rather than facing the Suns or Warriors let’s make a move to get us to 4-6 and play Utah, or Memphis, or Dallas. The extra revenue will make staying in the tax easier, and as is clear from the crazy payrolls at the top, things will change in the league one way or the other soon enough.

You mentioned just bench guys though, so why not upgrade our bench and see what we have? Allow Vando to keep improving with the starting 5. If we trade for Turner, Vando becomes much less effective.

I couldn’t disagree more. V8 would be unleashed on defense with Turner guarding the paint. V8 could match up against someone smaller who would be much more bothered by his length. He would be boxed out by someone smaller with less weight and surface area, this allows him to get to the ball faster on both ends. V8 on offense is basically the same as he can only do the things he can do. Turner instead of Bev means more defensive rebounds which means extra possessions. Turner on offense would park in his sweet spot and drain open 3s. In fact by drawing an opposing big to the perimeter and having KAT draw the other one to the perimeter it is easier for both V8 and Ant to get open looks in the paint.

Edit to add, upgrading the bench doesn’t help much because any player who significantly moves the needle would end up starting. Bev is injury prone, Nowell needs to stay with the second unit and just like last game in Portland we end up in a four person game. I don’t mind buffing the bench, but we need a consistent offensive big who can defensive rebound. For god sakes we are 28th in defensive rebounding.

[MN7725]

Randle has relationships with DLo and KAT. That’s good.

Lots of bad though. According to Knicks fans, after getting paid this offseason, he’s been horrid. Doesn’t try on day. Cares only about getting his own. Is holding back young players. Some weird thing between Randle and the Knicks fans where he is now enemy #1 and gets booed.

Also, while he shot better last year, his shot has regressed to where it was every year before last year. I think he’s only about 29% from 3. You can’t play him and Vando together. And if he’s really been bad on D, you can’t have KAT and Randle be you’re starting bigs. We’d get torched.

I like the idea, just not sure he’s the guy we acquire at a pricetag of nearly 30m per year plus having to give up assets.

Not to quibble but
Randle is making $21.8 mil this season, that's what needs to be matched

21-22 $21,780,000 (20% of $112 mil salary cap)
22-23 $26,136,000 (20% of predicted $119 mil salary cap)
23-24 $28,226,880 (?, would be in 24% range if it was a $119 cap again)
24-25 $30,317,760 ?
25-26 $32,408,640 (Player Option, Age 30 season) ?

so eventually he'll get to that $30 mil salary level but it won't be for a few seasons and by then there should be a new TV deal where the league salary structure will change significantly.

To be clear, Randle wouldn't be on my top 20 list of guys who might be available but I feel like his long term contract needs the context of the new tv deal. I just remember how John Wall, Jimmy Butler's signed long deals right before the current deal bumped up the salary cap, Randle isn't anywhere near their caliber (and isn't "maxed" either) but it shows how much a new TV deal can flip how deals signed under previous TV deal are viewed

I think the hope would be that Randle would get back to more of what he was with Pelicans, where he was a bully ball, 60% TS, high FTAs since he was playing with AD, Mirotic, Jrue that defenses focused on

and his rebounding/ball handling skills (both Wolves weaknesses: DREB, offensive creation) helped that NOP team play with high pace since he can go end to end with the ball as a big

But yeah, the fit and personality/ego/contract is major concern, and have a hard time seeing those risks outweigh what he might bring to the team.

but if Randle would be happy/efficient getting more like 12 FGA attempts that are spoon fed and much better looks vs. 16-18 FGA he consistently gets now where he has to work like a dog since the opposing D load up on him, it could work out

Again, hard to see that being the case

[winforlose]

Randle has relationships with DLo and KAT. That’s good.

Lots of bad though. According to Knicks fans, after getting paid this offseason, he’s been horrid. Doesn’t try on day. Cares only about getting his own. Is holding back young players. Some weird thing between Randle and the Knicks fans where he is now enemy #1 and gets booed.

Also, while he shot better last year, his shot has regressed to where it was every year before last year. I think he’s only about 29% from 3. You can’t play him and Vando together. And if he’s really been bad on D, you can’t have KAT and Randle be you’re starting bigs. We’d get torched.

I like the idea, just not sure he’s the guy we acquire at a pricetag of nearly 30m per year plus having to give up assets.

Not to quibble but
Randle is making $21.8 mil this season, that's what needs to be matched

21-22 $21,780,000 (20% of $112 mil salary cap)
22-23 $26,136,000 (20% of predicted $119 mil salary cap)
23-24 $28,226,880 (?, would be in 24% range if it was a $119 cap again)
24-25 $30,317,760 ?
25-26 $32,408,640 (Player Option, Age 30 season) ?

so eventually he'll get to that $30 mil salary level but it won't be for a few seasons and by then there should be a new TV deal where the league salary structure will change significantly.

To be clear, Randle wouldn't be on my top 20 list of guys who might be available but I feel like his long term contract needs the context of the new tv deal. I just remember how John Wall, Jimmy Butler's signed long deals right before the current deal bumped up the salary cap, Randle isn't anywhere near their caliber (and isn't "maxed" either) but it shows how much a new TV deal can flip how deals signed under previous TV deal are viewed

I think the hope would be that Randle would get back to more of what he was with Pelicans, where he was a bully ball, 60% TS, high FTAs since he was playing with AD, Mirotic, Jrue that defenses focused on

and his rebounding/ball handling skills (both Wolves weaknesses: DREB, offensive creation) helped that NOP team play with high pace since he can go end to end with the ball as a big

But yeah, the fit and personality/ego/contract is major concern, and have a hard time seeing those risks outweigh what he might bring to the team.

but if Randle would be happy/efficient getting more like 12 FGA attempts that are spoon fed and much better looks vs. 16-18 FGA he consistently gets now where he has to work like a dog since the opposing D load up on him, it could work out

Again, hard to see that being the case

He seems to want out of NY with the fans booing him all the time. I cannot think of a situation where he would be happier. It isn’t easy being the focus of the defense and having your teams future in your hands. Here he would be valued and optimized but without all the pressure and responsibility.

[Neeva]

Randle has relationships with DLo and KAT. That’s good.

Lots of bad though. According to Knicks fans, after getting paid this offseason, he’s been horrid. Doesn’t try on day. Cares only about getting his own. Is holding back young players. Some weird thing between Randle and the Knicks fans where he is now enemy #1 and gets booed.

Also, while he shot better last year, his shot has regressed to where it was every year before last year. I think he’s only about 29% from 3. You can’t play him and Vando together. And if he’s really been bad on D, you can’t have KAT and Randle be you’re starting bigs. We’d get torched.

I like the idea, just not sure he’s the guy we acquire at a pricetag of nearly 30m per year plus having to give up assets.

Not to quibble but
Randle is making $21.8 mil this season, that's what needs to be matched

21-22 $21,780,000 (20% of $112 mil salary cap)
22-23 $26,136,000 (20% of predicted $119 mil salary cap)
23-24 $28,226,880 (?, would be in 24% range if it was a $119 cap again)
24-25 $30,317,760 ?
25-26 $32,408,640 (Player Option, Age 30 season) ?

so eventually he'll get to that $30 mil salary level but it won't be for a few seasons and by then there should be a new TV deal where the league salary structure will change significantly.

To be clear, Randle wouldn't be on my top 20 list of guys who might be available but I feel like his long term contract needs the context of the new tv deal. I just remember how John Wall, Jimmy Butler's signed long deals right before the current deal bumped up the salary cap, Randle isn't anywhere near their caliber (and isn't "maxed" either) but it shows how much a new TV deal can flip how deals signed under previous TV deal are viewed

I think the hope would be that Randle would get back to more of what he was with Pelicans, where he was a bully ball, 60% TS, high FTAs since he was playing with AD, Mirotic, Jrue that defenses focused on

and his rebounding/ball handling skills (both Wolves weaknesses: DREB, offensive creation) helped that NOP team play with high pace since he can go end to end with the ball as a big

But yeah, the fit and personality/ego/contract is major concern, and have a hard time seeing those risks outweigh what he might bring to the team.

but if Randle would be happy/efficient getting more like 12 FGA attempts that are spoon fed and much better looks vs. 16-18 FGA he consistently gets now where he has to work like a dog since the opposing D load up on him, it could work out

Again, hard to see that being the case

He seems to want out of NY with the fans booing him all the time. I cannot think of a situation where he would be happier. It isn’t easy being the focus of the defense and having your teams future in your hands. Here he would be valued and optimized but without all the pressure and responsibility.

Seriously do you not get that his contract is toxic and he is overpaid by alot!! Wolves already have DLO the last thing they need is another overpaid player.

[andyhop]

I think he's good enough to get us a nice return on the market before the difficult decision over his extension needs to be made. The only issue is that we'd either need to get a competent big back as part of that trade or as part of a trade made almost immediately after.

What would we need to include with him to have a realistic chance of getting Turner back from Indiana?

Beasley, Reid, a heavily protected first?

They want 2 firsts supposedly so that offer isn't in the ballpark

Actually that offer is the ballpark. 2 firsts or 1st and a promising young player. A 22 year old backup center who recently had a 20/10 game counts. Moreover, Naz’s numbers are solid during the times KAT was out and he was starting. If you are giving up Turner you need someone to replace him, and that could be Naz.

If they are replacing Turner they will want defense so not Naz, and getting off Beasley probably costs you a first so the deal you are proposing is Naz who doesn't fit on the Pacers for Turner which is an obvious non starter

[andyhop]

I’d be worried, but I’d probably do it.

As i asked Klomp what incentive are you giving the Blazers to make the deal?

Not a lot. Covington is just a rental. Both he and Beasley started the season poorly, and both have been doing better lately. Covington lost his starting job in POR until recently, and he would be a bench player here as well.

So if you aren't going to offer a real incentive why would the Blazers do it?

[winforlose]

Not to quibble but
Randle is making $21.8 mil this season, that's what needs to be matched

21-22 $21,780,000 (20% of $112 mil salary cap)
22-23 $26,136,000 (20% of predicted $119 mil salary cap)
23-24 $28,226,880 (?, would be in 24% range if it was a $119 cap again)
24-25 $30,317,760 ?
25-26 $32,408,640 (Player Option, Age 30 season) ?

so eventually he'll get to that $30 mil salary level but it won't be for a few seasons and by then there should be a new TV deal where the league salary structure will change significantly.

To be clear, Randle wouldn't be on my top 20 list of guys who might be available but I feel like his long term contract needs the context of the new tv deal. I just remember how John Wall, Jimmy Butler's signed long deals right before the current deal bumped up the salary cap, Randle isn't anywhere near their caliber (and isn't "maxed" either) but it shows how much a new TV deal can flip how deals signed under previous TV deal are viewed

I think the hope would be that Randle would get back to more of what he was with Pelicans, where he was a bully ball, 60% TS, high FTAs since he was playing with AD, Mirotic, Jrue that defenses focused on

and his rebounding/ball handling skills (both Wolves weaknesses: DREB, offensive creation) helped that NOP team play with high pace since he can go end to end with the ball as a big

But yeah, the fit and personality/ego/contract is major concern, and have a hard time seeing those risks outweigh what he might bring to the team.

but if Randle would be happy/efficient getting more like 12 FGA attempts that are spoon fed and much better looks vs. 16-18 FGA he consistently gets now where he has to work like a dog since the opposing D load up on him, it could work out

Again, hard to see that being the case

He seems to want out of NY with the fans booing him all the time. I cannot think of a situation where he would be happier. It isn’t easy being the focus of the defense and having your teams future in your hands. Here he would be valued and optimized but without all the pressure and responsibility.

Seriously do you not get that his contract is toxic and he is overpaid by alot!! Wolves already have DLO the last thing they need is another overpaid player.

His contract is 5 and then 7 more than Beasley. He is the #1 defensive focus of Knicks opponents defense and he is averaging 18.7/9.9. You can say he shoots a high volume with low efficiency and you are correct. That said, imagine him getting open looks and single coverage inside because he is playing with KAT, Ant, Dlo. Plus he is still respected around the league and we can move him later if he is a poor fit.

[winforlose]

They want 2 firsts supposedly so that offer isn't in the ballpark

Actually that offer is the ballpark. 2 firsts or 1st and a promising young player. A 22 year old backup center who recently had a 20/10 game counts. Moreover, Naz’s numbers are solid during the times KAT was out and he was starting. If you are giving up Turner you need someone to replace him, and that could be Naz.

If they are replacing Turner they will want defense so not Naz, and getting off Beasley probably costs you a first so the deal you are proposing is Naz who doesn't fit on the Pacers for Turner which is an obvious non starter

Beasley is not a toxic contract. He is to make the money work and expiring next year. What does a rebuilding team want, expiring deals they can trade for picks. As for Naz, who says they will want defense as opposed to scoring? Naz is 22 and emerging as a shot blocker. Give him minutes and develop him who knows. Naz is a young player, Beasley or prince for the money, and a first. It is exactly what they asked for.

[shrink]

As i asked Klomp what incentive are you giving the Blazers to make the deal?

Not a lot. Covington is just a rental. Both he and Beasley started the season poorly, and both have been doing better lately. Covington lost his starting job in POR until recently, and he would be a bench player here as well.

So if you aren't going to offer a real incentive why would the Blazers do it?

The following two paragraphs answered a lot of this question, particularly where I suggested Beasley going to a third team.

As far as I know, there is nothing wrong with Beasley physically or mentally, and I suspect that given enough time and shots, he will regress to his mean, which is a 40% 3P shooter. His contract is just one more year if he doesn’t, but has the upside of a team option for an extra season if he performs well. Three point shooting is down all over the league this year, so the skill is coveted by many teams.

I’d include a 2nd - a 1st is too much. I’d probably include cash as well. Some of this value to us is because it saves us $2 mil under the lux. Again, I’d point out this is a three way trade, unless POR trades McCollum and gets some cap relief. As is, POR doesn’t need Beasley, and they are $3 mil over the lux and will likely seek to remove salary this year, not add it.