Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[younggunsmn]

Min In: DeAndre Hunter, Valanciunas
Min Out: Randle

MIA In: Bogdanovic, Randle
MIA Out: Butler

Atl In: Ingram, Herb Jones
Atl Out: Hunter, Nance, Bogdanovic

NO In: Butler
NO Out: Ingram, Herb Jones

Was In: Nance, 2nd round pick
Was Out: Valanciunas

2nd trade which has to be separate due to aggregation issues to balance roster spots and luxury tax:

Min In: Jovic
Min Out: NAW

MIA In: NAW
MIA Out: Jovic, Burks

Atl In: Burks
Atl Out: 2nd round pick

Just combining some rumors.

Atlanta cleans its books up and decides if it wants to keep Ingram next summer.
NO targets next year to see if they can get everyone healthy or just trades Jimmy next summer.
MIA gets out of the Jimmy circus and gets 2 vets who can contribute this year and next and then expire in 2026.
Wolves get another switchable big 3 who can shoot to play more of Finch's style of offense.

The money on this is almost dead even.

Maybe we are offering the least value. Probably.
But Miami doesn't want 3 year deals and maybe that gives us an angle into the trade.
Atlanta is a little light on value too Herb Jones is worth something but he's gotta be salary filler if NO is getting Butler.

If Was doesn't want to play ball you can cut Valanciunas out and take Nance and the cap space next summer.
If Mia doesn't want to take Julius you can see if Detroit will take him for Hardaway's expiring and Fontecchio, but that might take a little incentive.

[TheZachAttack]

This may change, but right now the path that I think allows the Wolves to maximize assets around Ant over the next 2 years is by trading NAW and keeping Randle until next year.

The reason I say this is that (1) NAW from an asset management perspective is probably peaking in terms of value (2) our guard/small forward rotation is deep and thus positionally NAW is move-able. I think NAW could net you another good rotation player or potentially even a FRP. In addition, I think that the Wolves rotation already needs more minutes for Rob/Dante. In addition to this, Clarke’s emergence as a defender and potential to develop as a shooter similar to NAW allows you to have a rotation answer for situations in which you need POC defense. Further, I think that the Wolves will also likely want to try to develop Shannon Jr and again this is where there’s some potential addition by subtraction where the Wolves can try to create 25+ minutes for Rob and 30+ for Dante along with Clarke/Shannon Jr minutes.

Further, I think Randle is a lot more valuable asset next year when he’s expiring. We have seen how the apron rules are making teams think much more deeply about cap and contracts — Randle as a 30-35m expiring player who can also help teams as a rental I think could be a piece that a number of teams would be interested in.

In that case, I think the Wolves can get more assets for Randle with him as an expiring either in the offseason or during the first half of the season next year. I think that as the Wolves have started to play together more, they have found a number of lineups where Randle is an effective player.

In addition, I think this also creates a potential opportunity for a bigger move that right now really isn’t available. Randle and Conley’s expiring contracts, Rudy’s lower salary slot, Minnesota’s FRP, and potentially even say another 1st round asset type future with the NAW trade could potentially net you a Fox level player with a 40-50m salary slot. I’m sure that with the apron, we likely would still be wanting to get off salary to get under the apron but still I think it creates possibilities where bigger moves become more available and I think being able to explore those options and be involved is a really valuable roster/cap situation to be in.

Lastly, if the NAW future is a pick this year and/or the Detroit pick conveys… that’s another young prospect that you can select for a skillset that you feel the rotation is missing and that’s additional minutes in a crowded rotation.

There are possibilities where Randle + Naw creates more attractive options this year and I’m open to those types of moves as well. Given, even if Randle stays we should be able to pay Naz and if we can’t trade Randle we will be losing NAW anyways this seems like a no brainer to me.

I’m still open to the idea that Randle for salary cap flexibility and rotation minutes makes sense. And I would love Naw to be on the team long term. I just wonder if, while Naw is a great role player, locking in a Rob/Ant/Naw/Dante/McDaniels/Jaden/Gobert and aging Conley rotation is enough talent to contend. I think you need to create some options to develop a rotation with higher upside and to me that involves more Rob/Dante/Naz minutes and trying to see what you have with Shannon Jr/Clark/Detroit pick.

[TheZachAttack]

There is a new Achilles procedure called a speed bridge. It is becoming common for Achilles tears. If it got DJM up and running by the off season (running literally,) and he was able to get back healthy by November, then DJM would be a great addition. I also am mindful that a groin strain could be a month or two injury. Randle might not help us again till March or April. That is why I see this trade as us taking the risk on DJM and they get the shorter easier to move or expire Randle, and it is win/win. It is also not the only move we would make. We would need to move NAW for a big and maybe include Utah’s second. Unless of course we sign best available and draft a big with that pick in the offseason. I think we still make the playoffs and maybe even win a series without Randle, and are better positioned next year with Murray. You can also give Dilly minutes at SG next to Murray or PG next to Ant next year. DDV becomes more SF replacing NAW and now we have a solid 3 man backcourt rotation with DDV available if needed. We have a solid SF position with Jaden, DDV, Shannon, and now all we need to work on is the bigs.

I personally am fine playing smaller lineups that combine 3 of Murray-Rob-Ant-Dante if it makes us faster with better ball handling and shot making. I also personally think Jaden is at his best playing the 4 on both sides of the ball while selectively for stretches playing POA. This lineup would have to switch a lot more anyways and so Jaden would end up on ball a good amount. I think the Wolves play a lot more engaged on both ends when they are switching and creating flow and connectivity.

I think Jaden has shown that he’s actually a really strong rebounder and Dante-Ant-Murray are all actually pretty strong rebounders (Ant when he wants to put in the energy). I think our core issue is that we don’t have point guards on the floor enough who can create pace, penetrate off the bounce and get defenses into rotation, and manage the ball to get into action early without being messed up by full court pressure. We also don’t have a point guard who can punish drop and get into the middle of the floor and make open easy in rhythm shots.

Ant is a fine playmaker when he’s scoring and making plays off his gravity. Less so when you ask him to control the other things mentioned above and manage that part of the game. I don’t even see a reason he needs to develop that part of his game to some extent.

I think most of the Wolves offensive issues stem from too many lineups playing players out of position from a ball handling stand point. When we do have lineups with Rob the offense almost always flows and the ball pops around. Conley takes care of the ball and that helps, but he can’t create advantages and no longer plays with pace. This means all of our baskets are tough to create and we don’t generate enough easy shots. We talk about how the Wolves can create better half court offense, but really the first thing the Wolves need to do is create more offense in transition/semi transition and to be able to press defenses and get them into rotation through not allowing them to get set in the first place

[minimus]

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I think that SAS could use both Randle and NAW... Can TC find a trade to help both teams? TC has already worked with SAS frontoffice.

[winforlose]

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I think that SAS could use both Randle and NAW... Can TC find a trade to help both teams? TC has already worked with SAS frontoffice.

Randle too ball dominant, and NAW not enough money to bring back anyone of value from the Spurs.

[Klomp]

Let's get crazy....

In this "avoid the supermax" era....is Jaren Jackson Jr safe?

[Howard Cosell]

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?s=46&t=SnUwEZi-mTq4XQ9FylLXdA

[Howard Cosell]

How does Twolves get Durant?

Please give me a scenario…I don’t care how crazy it may be….I need hope. Let’s’ go!!!

[BlacJacMac]

How does Twolves get Durant?

Please give me a scenario…I don’t care how crazy it may be….I need hope. Let’s’ go!!!

With a time machine?

[winforlose]

How does Twolves get Durant?

Please give me a scenario…I don’t care how crazy it may be….I need hope. Let’s’ go!!!

The mechanism is simple. Trade either Randle or Jaden to get under the 2nd apron, then aggregate enough salary to match KD’s contract.

An example, Jaden into space to Bulls (trade exemption from the Fox trade.) Now we need $51,179,021 to get Durant. Randle costs $33,073,920. $51,179,021 - $33,073,920 =$18,805,101. DDV is another $11,445,000. Assuming we don’t break the promise to Mike we need to add DDV. $18,805,101 - $11,445,000 =$7,360,101.00. Now you add $4,312,500 from NAW and Minott’s $1,891,857, plus Ingles $2,087,519 and you get = $8,291,876. We might need to fine tune the exact players but the idea is simple enough.

TLDR, lose Jaden, Randle, DDV, NAW, Minott, Ingles, and then have to move even more money to have enough minimums to sign G league guys.

[cmoss84]

How does Twolves get Durant?

Please give me a scenario…I don’t care how crazy it may be….I need hope. Let’s’ go!!!

Simple! Place draft picks wherever they belong in your mind. We would also be 1st apron.

SAS OUT: Johnson, Paul, Harrison Ingram
SAS IN: Brandon Ingram, Joe Ingles

NOP OUT: Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, JRE, Alvarado, BBJr
NOP IN: Randle, Keldon Johnson, (multiple picks)

PHO OUT: Kevin Durant
PHO IN: Jaden, Herb Jones, Chris Paul, NAW, Minott, Miller (Phoenix has a handful of cheap, expiring contracts they can dump)

MN OUT: Randle, Jaden, NAW, Ingles, Minott, Miller, picks
MN IN: Durant, JRE, Alvarado, BBJr, Harrison Ingram
(1st apron)

(GUARDS) Mike-Alvarado-RD-Ant-DD-BBJr-TSJ-Clark
(Forwards) Durant-NAZ-JRE-FA
(Bigs) Rudy-NAZ-FA-Garza

STARTING 5: Mike (20) Ant (32) NAZ (32) Durant (32) Rudy (30)
Alvarado-DD-BBJr-JRE-FA-FA
RD-Clark-Garza

[winforlose]

How does Twolves get Durant?

Please give me a scenario…I don’t care how crazy it may be….I need hope. Let’s’ go!!!

Simple! Place draft picks wherever they belong in your mind. We would also be 1st apron.

SAS OUT: Johnson, Paul, Harrison Ingram
SAS IN: Brandon Ingram, Joe Ingles

NOP OUT: Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, JRE, Alvarado, BBJr
NOP IN: Randle, Keldon Johnson, (multiple picks)

PHO OUT: Kevin Durant
PHO IN: Jaden, Herb Jones, Chris Paul, NAW, Minott, Miller (Phoenix has a handful of cheap, expiring contracts they can dump)

MN OUT: Randle, Jaden, NAW, Ingles, Minott, Miller, picks
MN IN: Durant, JRE, Alvarado, BBJr, Harrison Ingram
(1st apron)

(GUARDS) Mike-Alvarado-RD-Ant-DD-BBJr-TSJ-Clark
(Forwards) Durant-NAZ-JRE-FA
(Bigs) Rudy-NAZ-FA-Garza

STARTING 5: Mike (20) Ant (32) NAZ (32) Durant (32) Rudy (30)
Alvarado-DD-BBJr-JRE-FA-FA
RD-Clark-Garza

This gets back to the question of can you aggregate from the 2nd apron if you don’t end in the 2nd apron? I still don’t think you can, but I am not sure.

[Klomp]

I am remembering that we had interest in Bogdan Bogdanovic last deadline. I wonder if we approach them again. That was my favorite Randle idea in the early days, and Johnson's injury opened up a window where I could see the Hawks being interested. Now, it has certainly been a down year for Bogdanovic, but normally I think he would be in range of the type of player to expect in return for Randle.

I would love to set up a package of Randle for Bogdanovic and Okongwu. We would probably need to sweeten with the DET 1st, and I would possibly include a swap of NAW for someone in order to get it done.

[Norseman79]

I am remembering that we had interest in Bogdan Bogdanovic last deadline. I wonder if we approach them again. That was my favorite Randle idea in the early days, and Johnson's injury opened up a window where I could see the Hawks being interested. Now, it has certainly been a down year for Bogdanovic, but normally I think he would be in range of the type of player to expect in return for Randle.

I would love to set up a package of Randle for Bogdanovic and Okongwu. We would probably need to sweeten with the DET 1st, and I would possibly include a swap of NAW for someone in order to get it done.

I just don't see trading for another shooting guard. We need front court help and a PG.

[BlacJacMac]

How does Twolves get Durant?

Please give me a scenario…I don’t care how crazy it may be….I need hope. Let’s’ go!!!

Simple! Place draft picks wherever they belong in your mind. We would also be 1st apron.

SAS OUT: Johnson, Paul, Harrison Ingram
SAS IN: Brandon Ingram, Joe Ingles

NOP OUT: Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, JRE, Alvarado, BBJr
NOP IN: Randle, Keldon Johnson, (multiple picks)

PHO OUT: Kevin Durant
PHO IN: Jaden, Herb Jones, Chris Paul, NAW, Minott, Miller (Phoenix has a handful of cheap, expiring contracts they can dump)

MN OUT: Randle, Jaden, NAW, Ingles, Minott, Miller, picks
MN IN: Durant, JRE, Alvarado, BBJr, Harrison Ingram
(1st apron)

(GUARDS) Mike-Alvarado-RD-Ant-DD-BBJr-TSJ-Clark
(Forwards) Durant-NAZ-JRE-FA
(Bigs) Rudy-NAZ-FA-Garza

STARTING 5: Mike (20) Ant (32) NAZ (32) Durant (32) Rudy (30)
Alvarado-DD-BBJr-JRE-FA-FA
RD-Clark-Garza

This gets back to the question of can you aggregate from the 2nd apron if you don’t end in the 2nd apron? I still don’t think you can, but I am not sure.

Shrink answered it a couple days ago, and he's usually right on this kind of thing:

Minnesota would need to trade Randle first…probably for space and then trade McDaniels for Fox and other parts.

Timberwolves can’t combine Randle and McDaniels in a trade. I’m assuming Kings are interested in McDaniels.

They can’t aggregate salaries .. IF the deal concludes with team payroll over the second apron.

While we call ourselves a second apron team, the determination of what is legal is made after a trade is completed, not before. In a scenario where Randle and McDaniels went out, if after the trade they landed under the threshold for the second apron, then salary aggregation would be allowed. And the reason we would send them both out is to duck that threshold anyway.

[Klomp]

I am remembering that we had interest in Bogdan Bogdanovic last deadline. I wonder if we approach them again. That was my favorite Randle idea in the early days, and Johnson's injury opened up a window where I could see the Hawks being interested. Now, it has certainly been a down year for Bogdanovic, but normally I think he would be in range of the type of player to expect in return for Randle.

I would love to set up a package of Randle for Bogdanovic and Okongwu. We would probably need to sweeten with the DET 1st, and I would possibly include a swap of NAW for someone in order to get it done.

I just don't see trading for another shooting guard. We need front court help and a PG.

That is certainly fair. I would actually call him slightly more SF than SG. And in the premise I had a good chance of NAW outgoing. With Julius leaving and no PF returning, they'd play more smaller lineups which means more wing minutes to fill as well. Plus, Okongwu could probably take a few PF minutes.

[Norseman79]

I am remembering that we had interest in Bogdan Bogdanovic last deadline. I wonder if we approach them again. That was my favorite Randle idea in the early days, and Johnson's injury opened up a window where I could see the Hawks being interested. Now, it has certainly been a down year for Bogdanovic, but normally I think he would be in range of the type of player to expect in return for Randle.

I would love to set up a package of Randle for Bogdanovic and Okongwu. We would probably need to sweeten with the DET 1st, and I would possibly include a swap of NAW for someone in order to get it done.

I just don't see trading for another shooting guard. We need front court help and a PG.

That is certainly fair. I would actually call him slightly more SF than SG. And in the premise I had a good chance of NAW outgoing. With Julius leaving and no PF returning, they'd play more smaller lineups which means more wing minutes to fill as well. Plus, Okongwu could probably take a few PF minutes.

Nothing else they've done has made much sense so God only knows. Definitely don't see smaller lineups as the answer, but I'm not a professional. I think he's a little undersized to play small forward, but I'm also biased towards being bigger at each position instead of smaller. Just different styles. They just need to figure out what the hell they're going to do with Naz and stick to the plan. At some point you either trade people or extend people because it's about asset management.

[moss_is_1]

Going to be an interesting few days with all these teams shopping guys and needing to make moves. I'm just looking forward to hearing some juicy rumors.

[ILC]

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[ILC]

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OK reading through this now for those who don't have a subscription, a couple interesting points:

- doesn't seem like a big move is on the horizon, repeats Finch's words after the ATL game that they think improvement is coming internally
- Wolves are the 8th best team in record since Dec 1st, since January 5th Ortg, 10th Defrtg
- Wolves love Fox and had interest in him but could not get him because of 2nd apron and lack of picks also (technically they could but would cost too much)
- The only untouchable player is Ant and says that if the Mavs called for Edwards instead of Anthony Davis in the Luka trade Wolves would've said no (probably true since no way Luka is staying long term in MIN, Ant locked up long-term
- In the "not going anywhere" category he lists Rudy (ineligible for trade), Naz and DDV. Says both Naz and DDV would have a lot of offers if Wolves made them available, but they have full intention on keeping both.
- In the "only for a star" category are Jaden and Rob. On Jaden he says "Would the Wolves have included him in a Fox package? Maybe. But it would take a major return for them to part with him."
On Rob:" If the Wolves were to part with him, it would have to be as a main part of a package for an impact player. I don’t see that happening this week."
- on Randle: "There isn’t much of one for a player with a $33 million option on his deal for next year. If the Wolves wanted to move Randle, they would likely have to incentivize another team to take him, and they’re not interested in that. The groin injury that could keep him out through the All-Star break doesn’t help matters. Trading him now would also almost certainly make them a worse team in the short term, and they don’t have their first-round pick in the draft so the benefit of a mini-tank is not there. Sorry Wolves fans, but they like Randle more than you do."
- On NAW:"This is why it’s complicated. Alexander-Walker is one of the best bargains in the entire league but will likely be due a huge raise this summer. Can the Wolves afford to keep him with their payroll swelling like it is? If not, they could look to move him. But his salary is so reasonable that it would be very difficult to find a fair trade in terms of value. The Wolves love NAW and want to keep him, so he will almost certainly remain on the roster through the deadline and, hopefully, beyond."
- Finally says if things hold the way they are now it will be a quiet deadline and no moves for Wolves