Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[Klomp]

Ah yes, the team that was 3 games away from the NBA Finals should trade for one of the worst team in the league's 4th and 5th best prospects. I am so confused with some discussion here.

It worked pretty well for Dallas last year.

[Colbinii]

Ah yes, the team that was 3 games away from the NBA Finals should trade for one of the worst team in the league's 4th and 5th best prospects. I am so confused with some discussion here.

It worked pretty well for Dallas last year.

Dallas traded for two 25 year-old bigs [meaingin their primes]. Duren and Ivey aren't helping a team win this year. Duren turns 21 in 1 month while Ivey turns 23 next year.

Not exactly apples to apples here.

Dallas also wasn't coming off a successful season in the year prior--in fact they missed the playoffs.

[Biff Cooper]

I would not dismiss the idea of Keita being on the roster this year as injury insurance, especially since we’re contenders.

What is the $$ difference between keeping Dozier and keeping KDB? Both are vet min contracts - correct? So the league pays for part of their base salary? Are we responsible for the luxury tax amount on their full salary, or just the amount that the NBA is not paying?

I'm not dismissing that KDB will be on the team. Obviously, Dozier has an easier and cheaper contract to get away from. Before taking on DDV, Dozier made a lot more sense on this team as a backup PG, tough defender than he does with DDV on the roster. My point was more aimed at the proposed KBD to OKC trade where either they give us a 2nd rounder, (or even with no 2nd rounder). If a team wants to take him off our hands to save us the salary and luxury tax bill that he causes for us, I could easily see that happening. If having KDB on our roster ends up costing us like $10M in salary + luxury tax payments, I could see us even adding a 2nd to save $10M.

[Slim Tubby]

Duren is the only guy that interests me. He'd be the ideal guy to learn from, and eventually replace, Rudy.

No idea why Detroit would do that, but they were playing, the bust, Greg Wiseman ahead of the young stud last year.

Same here. A deal that includes Duren and Ivey would really intrigue me but it makes little sense for a rebuilding team like DET unless they are desperate for immediate returns.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

Ah yes, the team that was 3 games away from the NBA Finals should trade for one of the worst team in the league's 4th and 5th best prospects. I am so confused with some discussion here.

* It was mentioned that DET was one of only 2-3 teams that had trade discussions with the NYK about Randle.

* It was then a question of what players from those few teams would interest you in a possible Randle trade.

* Then you had to see who might be made available and would fit our roster based on skill, age and salary.

I gave my opinion.

Maybe you should follow along a little better yourself before posting sarcastic **** to another poster.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

[KGdaBom]

I am under the impression that we only took on KBD in order to make the trade finances work - not because we actually wanted him. I'd assume that any trade we can make to flip him where we don't give up other assets would be on the table. I'm sure Connelly would rather keep Dozier than KBD.

Yes, to make the deal work financially, the Knicks needed to send out Keita Bates-Diop, Charlie Brown Jr, Duane Washington Jr. and DaQuan Jeffries. But note, they could have sent those players to either team. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we took the six-year NBA vet, who’s played 283 games in the NBA, and CHA got three guys who haven’t played that many games combined. Moreover, KDB was a little more expensive than the other three, which matters to a team paying high luxury tax increments.

I still think that the most likely course of action is that the Wolves waive either PJ Dozier ($2 mil, $1 mil guaranteed) or Diop ($2.65 mil). But if they waive one of those guys, his dead money salary stays on the books, plus the owners have to pay lux on it.

However, if they traded Minott or Miller into another team’s exception, they’d get the return their worth (some picks). But if they do it before opening day, the team get those picks plus an additional $3.5 million dollars by getting out of the salary, before they have to waive a guy.

I would not dismiss the idea of Keita being on the roster this year as injury insurance, especially since we’re contenders.

He's decent. We should be able to trade him for a 2RP and save a lot of money. Keep Minott, Miller, Shannon and Garza over KBD.

[KGdaBom]

I literally went back to see if I posted that!

Getting names wrong is kind of my thing. Don’t be stealing my branding!

Didn't they have Greg Monroe or some other big man named Greg?

[KGdaBom]

I would not dismiss the idea of Keita being on the roster this year as injury insurance, especially since we’re contenders.

What is the $$ difference between keeping Dozier and keeping KDB? Both are vet min contracts - correct? So the league pays for part of their base salary? Are we responsible for the luxury tax amount on their full salary, or just the amount that the NBA is not paying?

I'm not dismissing that KDB will be on the team. Obviously, Dozier has an easier and cheaper contract to get away from. Before taking on DDV, Dozier made a lot more sense on this team as a backup PG, tough defender than he does with DDV on the roster. My point was more aimed at the proposed KBD to OKC trade where either they give us a 2nd rounder, (or even with no 2nd rounder). If a team wants to take him off our hands to save us the salary and luxury tax bill that he causes for us, I could easily see that happening. If having KDB on our roster ends up costing us like $10M in salary + luxury tax payments, I could see us even adding a 2nd to save $10M.

It's Keita Bates-Diop. KBD yet I see KDB on a very regular amount of posts. However, you did get it right one out of 4 times. I don't get it, but you're not the exception.

[Biff Cooper]

It's Keita Bates-Diop. KBD yet I see KDB on a very regular amount of posts. However, you did get it right one out of 4 times. I don't get it, but you're not the exception.

Close enough - you knew who I was talking about.

Looking at Sportrac, they have us 27.96M over the luxury tax line. It seems to me they are adding our unlikely incentives rather than our likely incentives which would potentially drop us down to $27.21 over. This would mean we would likely save close to 5.25 x the salary if we could dump either one of these guys (1 x salary + 4.25 x luxury tax). For KBD that would be $13.94M. For Dozier that would be $10.96M.

[KGdaBom]

It's Keita Bates-Diop. KBD yet I see KDB on a very regular amount of posts. However, you did get it right one out of 4 times. I don't get it, but you're not the exception.

Close enough - you knew who I was talking about.

Looking at Sportrac, they have us 27.96M over the luxury tax line. It seems to me they are adding our unlikely incentives rather than our likely incentives which would potentially drop us down to $27.21 over. This would mean we would likely save close to 5.25 x the salary if we could dump either one of these guys (1 x salary + 4.25 x luxury tax). For KBD that would be $13.94M. For Dozier that would be $10.96M.

Of course I knew who you were/are talking about. It's just a crazy phenomenon that so many people type KDB in their posts.

[shrink]

I’m double checking in case I called him CBD. Very different.

[shrink]

I would not dismiss the idea of Keita being on the roster this year as injury insurance, especially since we’re contenders.

What is the $$ difference between keeping Dozier and keeping KDB? Both are vet min contracts - correct? So the league pays for part of their base salary? Are we responsible for the luxury tax amount on their full salary, or just the amount that the NBA is not paying?

I'm not dismissing that KDB will be on the team. Obviously, Dozier has an easier and cheaper contract to get away from. Before taking on DDV, Dozier made a lot more sense on this team as a backup PG, tough defender than he does with DDV on the roster. My point was more aimed at the proposed KBD to OKC trade where either they give us a 2nd rounder, (or even with no 2nd rounder). If a team wants to take him off our hands to save us the salary and luxury tax bill that he causes for us, I could easily see that happening. If having KDB on our roster ends up costing us like $10M in salary + luxury tax payments, I could see us even adding a 2nd to save $10M.

I was finally able to confirm that Keita Bates-Diop signed a vet min deal with the Suns. The difference is that Dozier’s deal is only guaranteed for $1 mil. So the two “waive” options are

Waive Dozier: $1 + $2.1 = $3.1 mil cap hit
Waive KDB: $2.1 + $2.1 = $4.2 mil cap hit.

So waiving Dozier instead of KDB saves $1.1 mil, plus the lux tax on $1.1. But with any waive, you are still paying a guy for guaranteed zero production.

(Now that the new CBA changed the lux tiers from $5 mil each to something tied to cap growth, I no longer can calculate the tax differences from payroll changes. Does anyone have that info, or a link to a place that has it for 2024-25?)

[Klomp]

(Now that the new CBA changed the lux tiers from $5 mil each to something tied to cap growth, I no longer can calculate the tax differences from payroll changes. Does anyone have that info, or a link to a place that has it for 2024-25?)

I miss Larry Coon.

[shrink]

(Now that the new CBA changed the lux tiers from $5 mil each to something tied to cap growth, I no longer can calculate the tax differences from payroll changes. Does anyone have that info, or a link to a place that has it for 2024-25?)

I miss Larry Coon.

Me too. Do you remember when he was an active RealGMer?

He shouted me out once, and I felt like I was talking to the pope!

[Klomp]

(Now that the new CBA changed the lux tiers from $5 mil each to something tied to cap growth, I no longer can calculate the tax differences from payroll changes. Does anyone have that info, or a link to a place that has it for 2024-25?)

I miss Larry Coon.

Me too. Do you remember when he was an active RealGMer?

He shouted me out once, and I felt like I was talking to the pope!

I did not remember that. I know of Keith Smith's time here.

[wolves_89]

I would not dismiss the idea of Keita being on the roster this year as injury insurance, especially since we’re contenders.

What is the $$ difference between keeping Dozier and keeping KDB? Both are vet min contracts - correct? So the league pays for part of their base salary? Are we responsible for the luxury tax amount on their full salary, or just the amount that the NBA is not paying?

I'm not dismissing that KDB will be on the team. Obviously, Dozier has an easier and cheaper contract to get away from. Before taking on DDV, Dozier made a lot more sense on this team as a backup PG, tough defender than he does with DDV on the roster. My point was more aimed at the proposed KBD to OKC trade where either they give us a 2nd rounder, (or even with no 2nd rounder). If a team wants to take him off our hands to save us the salary and luxury tax bill that he causes for us, I could easily see that happening. If having KDB on our roster ends up costing us like $10M in salary + luxury tax payments, I could see us even adding a 2nd to save $10M.

I was finally able to confirm that Keita Bates-Diop signed a vet min deal with the Suns. The difference is that Dozier’s deal is only guaranteed for $1 mil. So the two “waive” options are

Waive Dozier: $1 + $2.1 = $3.1 mil cap hit
Waive KDB: $2.1 + $2.1 = $4.2 mil cap hit.

So waiving Dozier instead of KDB saves $1.1 mil, plus the lux tax on $1.1. But with any waive, you are still paying a guy for guaranteed zero production.

(Now that the new CBA changed the lux tiers from $5 mil each to something tied to cap growth, I no longer can calculate the tax differences from payroll changes. Does anyone have that info, or a link to a place that has it for 2024-25?)

I don't think the luxury tax brackets change relative to cap growth. I believe the tax brackets for 2024-25 are the same as last season (though there will be a bit of a change for 2025-26 and beyond with it being more expensive to be way over and less expensive to be slightly over). If you have an Athletic subscription here's a good summary: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4607105/2023/06/28/nba-cba-new-rules/


As far as I can tell here are the luxury tax penalties for 2024-25:
$0-5M -> $1.50
$5-10M -> $1.75
$10-15M -> $2.50
$15-20M -> $3.25
$20-25M -> $3.75
$25-30M -> $4.25
$30-35M -> $4.75

Since the Wolves seem to be topping out just over $30M above the luxury tax, the tax penalty should be $4.75 per dollar. Based on that I think that the waiver costs would be:

Waive Dozier: $1M guaranteed + $4.75M luxury tax = $5.75M in total money
Waive KDB: $2.65M (I don't think his contract qualifies as a vet minimum) + $12.5 luxury tax = $15.2M in total money

I think the best possible outcome for the Wolves would be to find someone to take KBD into an exception.

[wolves_89]

Are there any teams that would take KBD into an exception? I am expecting Keita to be moved at some point before the trade deadline even if we have to attach a 2nd to make the deal.

[shrink]

What is the $$ difference between keeping Dozier and keeping KDB? Both are vet min contracts - correct? So the league pays for part of their base salary? Are we responsible for the luxury tax amount on their full salary, or just the amount that the NBA is not paying?

I'm not dismissing that KDB will be on the team. Obviously, Dozier has an easier and cheaper contract to get away from. Before taking on DDV, Dozier made a lot more sense on this team as a backup PG, tough defender than he does with DDV on the roster. My point was more aimed at the proposed KBD to OKC trade where either they give us a 2nd rounder, (or even with no 2nd rounder). If a team wants to take him off our hands to save us the salary and luxury tax bill that he causes for us, I could easily see that happening. If having KDB on our roster ends up costing us like $10M in salary + luxury tax payments, I could see us even adding a 2nd to save $10M.

I was finally able to confirm that Keita Bates-Diop signed a vet min deal with the Suns. The difference is that Dozier’s deal is only guaranteed for $1 mil. So the two “waive” options are

Waive Dozier: $1 + $2.1 = $3.1 mil cap hit
Waive KDB: $2.1 + $2.1 = $4.2 mil cap hit.

So waiving Dozier instead of KDB saves $1.1 mil, plus the lux tax on $1.1. But with any waive, you are still paying a guy for guaranteed zero production.

(Now that the new CBA changed the lux tiers from $5 mil each to something tied to cap growth, I no longer can calculate the tax differences from payroll changes. Does anyone have that info, or a link to a place that has it for 2024-25?)

I don't think the luxury tax brackets change relative to cap growth. I believe the tax brackets for 2024-25 are the same as last season (though there will be a bit of a change for 2025-26 and beyond with it being more expensive to be way over and less expensive to be slightly over).

As far as I can tell here are the luxury tax penalties for 2024-25:
$0-5M -> $1.50
$5-10M -> $1.75
$10-15M -> $2.50
$15-20M -> $3.25
$20-25M -> $3.75
$25-30M -> $4.25
$30-35M -> $4.75

Since the Wolves seem to be topping out just over $30M above the luxury tax, the tax penalty should be $4.75 per dollar. Based on that I think that the waiver costs would be:

Waive Dozier: $1M guaranteed + $4.75M luxury tax = $5.75M in total money
Waive KDB: $2.65M (I don't think his contract qualifies as a vet minimum) + $12.5 luxury tax = $15.2M in total money

I think the best possible outcome for the Wolves would be to find someone to take KBD into an exception.

Thanks, for doing the calculations here. The numbers are probably pretty close, but the new CBA slightly changed those rules.

While the individual lux increments would rise with each $5 mil gap over the luxury threshold, the new CBA increases those gaps by the same percentage that the cap grows every year, to try to keep it more fair. In other words, a $5 mil gap in payroll now is not going to be as big a deal as a $5 mil gap in payroll in five years. Previous CBA’s had the salary cap and luxury threshold designed to rise with the annual rise in the cap, but the newest one is applying that same standard to luxury thresholds.

We’ve only had one season of growth, and it wasn’t even 10%, so your numbers are probably still pretty accurate.

[wolves_89]

I was finally able to confirm that Keita Bates-Diop signed a vet min deal with the Suns. The difference is that Dozier’s deal is only guaranteed for $1 mil. So the two “waive” options are

Waive Dozier: $1 + $2.1 = $3.1 mil cap hit
Waive KDB: $2.1 + $2.1 = $4.2 mil cap hit.

So waiving Dozier instead of KDB saves $1.1 mil, plus the lux tax on $1.1. But with any waive, you are still paying a guy for guaranteed zero production.

(Now that the new CBA changed the lux tiers from $5 mil each to something tied to cap growth, I no longer can calculate the tax differences from payroll changes. Does anyone have that info, or a link to a place that has it for 2024-25?)

I don't think the luxury tax brackets change relative to cap growth. I believe the tax brackets for 2024-25 are the same as last season (though there will be a bit of a change for 2025-26 and beyond with it being more expensive to be way over and less expensive to be slightly over).

As far as I can tell here are the luxury tax penalties for 2024-25:
$0-5M -> $1.50
$5-10M -> $1.75
$10-15M -> $2.50
$15-20M -> $3.25
$20-25M -> $3.75
$25-30M -> $4.25
$30-35M -> $4.75

Since the Wolves seem to be topping out just over $30M above the luxury tax, the tax penalty should be $4.75 per dollar. Based on that I think that the waiver costs would be:

Waive Dozier: $1M guaranteed + $4.75M luxury tax = $5.75M in total money
Waive KDB: $2.65M (I don't think his contract qualifies as a vet minimum) + $12.5 luxury tax = $15.2M in total money

I think the best possible outcome for the Wolves would be to find someone to take KBD into an exception.

Thanks, for doing the calculations here. The numbers are probably pretty close, but the new CBA slightly changed those rules.

While the individual lux increments would rise with each $5 mil gap over the luxury threshold, the new CBA increases those gaps by the same percentage that the cap grows every year, to try to keep it more fair. In other words, a $5 mil gap in payroll now is not going to be as big a deal as a $5 mil gap in payroll in five years. Previous CBA’s had the salary cap and luxury threshold designed to rise with the annual rise in the cap, but the newest one is applying that same standard to luxury thresholds.

We’ve only had one season of growth, and it wasn’t even 10%, so your numbers are probably still pretty accurate.

From everything I've seen the tax brackets are still fixed at $5M increments and do not scale. The luxury tax level and apron levels scale, but I don't believe the tax brackets do.

If you have an Athletic subscription here's a good summary: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4607105/2023/06/28/nba-cba-new-rules/

EDIT: I read further down the tax bracket section of the article and found that you are correct that the brackets do scale. That's something I hadn't seen before and I guess I didn't read the full section. It's still not clear to me if the brackets scale this season or if it starts in 2025-26 when the penalties are adjusted. Either way, as you said there would only be a small change (the cap only went up a little over 3%) for this season.

[Colbinii]

Same here. A deal that includes Duren and Ivey would really intrigue me but it makes little sense for a rebuilding team like DET unless they are desperate for immediate returns.

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Ah yes, the team that was 3 games away from the NBA Finals should trade for one of the worst team in the league's 4th and 5th best prospects. I am so confused with some discussion here.

* It was mentioned that DET was one of only 2-3 teams that had trade discussions with the NYK about Randle.

* It was then a question of what players from those few teams would interest you in a possible Randle trade.

* Then you had to see who might be made available and would fit our roster based on skill, age and salary.

I gave my opinion.

Maybe you should follow along a little better yourself before posting sarcastic **** to another poster.

Sure.

Detroit would have had interest due to Randle's playmaking and size at the 4. He would slot in well next to Cade/Beasley/Harris/Randle/Duren, with Stewart the target for New York [as he offers 5-out spacing].

Randle + Filler for Stewart + Ivey

New York cuts cost and adds two rotation players. I could also see a situation where the Detroit 1st is somehow included, changing the protections in some capacity to even out the value.

Now, looking at Detroit from a Minnesota POV, which is what we should be doing, the most intriguing player is obviously Cade Cunningham. I don't think Randle pry's him away, so let's look at the next tier.

Young Guys:
Jalen Duren - 20 Year Old, 3rd Year Center with incredible potential. Unfortunately, we don't really need a Center, but he could be a long-term option.
Ausar Thompson - I love his skill-set and defense, but he has blood clots. Medical No.
Ron Holland - 1st year Rookie, doubt Detroit wants to trade away his potential at this point.
Jaden Ivey - Potential PGoF but we have Dilly, who has more intrigue at this point.

Win-Now:
Isaiah Stewart - 3+D Center, would really unlock a lot offensively as another PF/C flexible big who can shoot the 3, defend and rebound. This is the player I am most interested in so far.
Tobias Harris - Maybe if he were younger but at 32 and on the decline, not worth taking up 90% of the cap in return of Randle.
Simone Fontecchio - Yeah, fun 3+D role player.
Malik Beasley - You can never have too much shooting.

Tobias Harris, Simone Fontecchio, Cade Cunningham and Malik Beasley are all untradeable until Dec 15.

The real prize here, for Minnesota, would be Isaiah Stewart, a win-now player who is still relatively young with 3 years of team control at < Naz Reid Money. Sort of a Naz Reid replacement if Naz demands 30+ Million but also a long-term fit with Naz/Rudy or any big man given he can defend and shoot the 3 ball.

The compliment to Isaiah Stewart would be acquiring one of the younger player(s) to compliment the long-term vision. Ivey is a big awkward fit-wise, Ausar had medical concerns, which leaves Ron Holland, who I doubt they part with. Maybe we settle for Stewart + Malik, save money, and Detroit lowers the protection on the 1st, allowing it to convey if 5-30 intead of 11-30

Isaiah Stewart, Malik Beasley, Lowered Protections on DET 1st for Julius Randle

Next up, Wing City, USA--Hotlanta.

Yeah, Randle and Trae are a fun fit offensively. The trade here is simple.

Bogdon Bogdanovic + Larry Nance Jr + Protected 1st for Julius Randle

Minnesota moves Reid to the starting line-up, Nance Jr fills in at back-up PF/C, and we get another 6MOY in Bogdon Bogdanovic. We pick up a future 1st with middling protections [at best] which conveys over the next 1-3 years.

[minimus]

I am not impressed with Stewart at all. When I watched DET games he looked slow in terms of decision making. He can shoot threes but it reminds me Myles Turner situation, when shiny idea of stetching big overshadows actual impact on the floor.

Yes, we have Gobert at C, but I would trade Randle and return DET pick if Pistons give us Duren and Fontecchio.

Duren looks like a mix between less athletic Amare Stoudemire and Antonio McDyess. If we are going to run-n-gun in Edwards prime Duren is an ideal small ball C.


Duren-Reid-McDaniels/Fontecchio-Edwards-DDV/Dillingham would be so fun to watch.