Kevin Love Free Agency/Trade Thread

[x-]

Hello. I come in peace.

Feel free to disagree, but from an outsider's perspective the best offers the T-Wolves might get/could hope for Love (barring a jump from Suns or Lakers into the top-3 of the draft) are:

BOS: #5, Sullinger, Jeff Green
CHI: J.Butler, T.Gibson, #16, #19
HOU: Parsons, T.Jones, Asik (to third team, e.g. for pick in #17-23 range), #25, future 1st

Obviously, there's no telling if any of these offers actually will be on the table. (If you go to the trade board, you'll see that fans from Bulls & Rockets might not be willing to offer as much.) Still, I was wondering which of these would intrigue you guys most?

From a Rockets POV, Love ending up in any of these places could be a positive. If he gets traded Bulls, the Melo-free agency option might just be realistic.
If he gets traded to the Celtics, they'll probably try hard to find a center to pair him with, making them a trade destination to flip Asik for an asset to upgrade the roster at a position of need.

[righterwriter]

GS trades: Lee, H.Barnes, Draymond Green
MIN Trades: K.Love and Kevin Martin
CLE Trades: Varejao, Waiters, and Tristan Thompson

GS Gets: Kevin Love
CLE Gets: D.Lee, K.Martin, and H.Barnes
MIN Gets: Waiters, Draymond Green, T.Thompson, and Varejao

GS gets an upgrade in Love.
CLE gets some players that can help Kyrie win now.
MIN gets a lot of young talent and a veteran expiring contract that they can flip.

In a Love trade, Minnesota would want at least one HIGH (top5-7) draft pick and/or a young (under 25) all-star (or very near all-star) level player. This obviously doesn't fit the bill, and is not a good offer.

Lets examine that request:

1) "A young (under 25) all-star or near all-star level player"
How many of these guys are there in the NBA? I honestly can't think of any except Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, and Derozan. The first two guys ain't getting dealt. Derozan could be, but we can discuss the possibility of Love to Toronto below.

2) "A top 5-7 pick"
Love will likely tell any team in the top-5 to 7 that he will almost certainly not re-sign with them, because he doesn't want to go through another huge playoff drought, so it seems unlikely that any of these teams would pull the trigger and give away a valuable pick for a one year rental of Love.

As far as Love to Toronto, it just seems unlikely that he'd head to the great white north and stick around there for long. I think he wants to go to a team that he thinks can contend and is in a location he enjoys. Doesn't seem like Toronto is the place.

[AQuintus]

BOS: #5, Sullinger, Jeff Green
CHI: J.Butler, T.Gibson, #16, #19
HOU: Parsons, T.Jones, Asik (to third team, e.g. for pick in #17-23 range), #25, future 1st

From a Wolves' fans perspective, I'd say that the Boston deal is far and away the best.

The Chicago deal (without Mirotic) and the Houston deal aren't all that good. I'd take LA's 1st + cap relief over both.

Adding a bunch of mid-to-late 1sts really increases the value of the deal very little. One quality player or one high pick is worth more than 3+ low(er) picks.

[AQuintus]

Lets examine that request:

1) "A young (under 25) all-star or near all-star level player"
How many of these guys are there in the NBA? I honestly can't think of any except Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, and Derozan. The first two guys ain't getting dealt. Derozan could be, but we can discuss the possibility of Love to Toronto below.

"All-star level" is not the same as an actual All-star. You don't have to actually make the team to be an all-star level player.

2) "A top 5-7 pick"
Love will likely tell any team in the top-5 to 7 that he will almost certainly not re-sign with them, because he doesn't want to go through another huge playoff drought, so it seems unlikely that any of these teams would pull the trigger and give away a valuable pick for a one year rental of Love.

Celtics and Lakers. Edit: And other teams could move assets to get a top 5-7 pick to trade to Minnesota for Love.

[Mattya]

Well Love is gone ? Or u just don't want to believe that yet. And he didn't even wait until his contract expire to make that known. Many of you thought he will stay and that you should build around KLove. I on the other hand didn't, and thought that we should trade him and I think wolves would get more if they trade him sooner. Also they would have better concept of what team should've looked.

Discution started with Love, but ok Rubio is gone (90% also), that part is not realised yet but so far me 1 all you guys 0.
We will see how RR saga will end.

Just to clarife I love both guys, just thing that it won't work out eventually.

I love to see RR wants to be this team leader, and maybe he will sign with wolves... But that will happen imo only if he doesn't have great seasons in the future.

And you don't need to apologyse just say that I wasn't that crazy when I told that Love isn't happy and wolves should trade him.

Or don't whatever.

1.find a post where I say Kevin Love will never leave MN.

2. Find a quote that says Kevin Love or Ricky Rubio "hate" (your words) MN.

Once you do that you can try to gloat until then you are either trolling, or too dumb to reply to.

[JonFromVA]

In a Love trade, Minnesota would want at least one HIGH (top5-7) draft pick and/or a young (under 25) all-star (or very near all-star) level player. This obviously doesn't fit the bill, and is not a good offer.

Not to mention, but Cleveland might help facilitate a deal, but they're not going to give up most of the assets to do it without being the recipient of Love (or someone on the same level).

The Cavs aren't trying to blow up their team or win a few more games, they're trying to create their own big-3. If they can't pull that off, they'll keep plowing forward with the rebuild - targeting players who fit.

[Krapinsky]

GS trades: Lee, H.Barnes, Draymond Green
MIN Trades: K.Love and Kevin Martin
CLE Trades: Varejao, Waiters, and Tristan Thompson

GS Gets: Kevin Love
CLE Gets: D.Lee, K.Martin, and H.Barnes
MIN Gets: Waiters, Draymond Green, T.Thompson, and Varejao

GS gets an upgrade in Love.
CLE gets some players that can help Kyrie win now.
MIN gets a lot of young talent and a veteran expiring contract that they can flip.

In a Love trade, Minnesota would want at least one HIGH (top5-7) draft pick and/or a young (under 25) all-star (or very near all-star) level player. This obviously doesn't fit the bill, and is not a good offer.

I don't think that's too bad, but I'm abnormally high on Waiters. Green and Thompson are solid. We don't really have a need for Varejao and I think his value is lost on us.

[AQuintus]

I don't think that's too bad, but I'm abnormally high on Waiters.

You're also very high on Barnes and Thompson, and I'm not sure why with those guys either. I'll admit that I haven't watched much of any of them, so maybe they look incredible on the court, but just based on their stats, all three are pretty mediocre without a ton of hope of big improvement.

Edit:

For the sake of convenience, here are their respective stats:

[Klomp]

Not getting Thompson in a Love trade would be like not getting Rondo in the Garnett trade.

[BoomFizzle]

Klay really seems like a great compliment for Rubio, could form a very solid defensive duo.

[Krapinsky]

I don't think that's too bad, but I'm abnormally high on Waiters.

You're also very high on Barnes and Thompson, and I'm not sure why with those guys either. I'll admit that I haven't watched much of any of them, so maybe they look incredible on the court, but just based on their stats, all three are pretty mediocre without a ton of hope of big improvement.

Klay or Tristan? I'm pretty high on Klay. Solid young wing players are a rarity and i think Barnes (21 yr), Waiters (22 yr), and Klay (24 yr) all have all-star caliber seasons ahead of them. Why is there not a ton of hope of big improvement?

[AQuintus]

Klay or Tristan? I'm pretty high on Klay. Solid young wing players are a rarity and i think Barnes (21 yr), Waiters (22 yr), and Klay (24 yr) all have all-star caliber seasons ahead of them. Why is there not a ton of hope of big improvement?

Klay. Look at the stats I posted above.

Barnes: 11.0 PER, 9.8 PER. He's already regressed despite being a very young player. A player that has all-star games in their futures should show consistent progression over their first few years. On top of that Barnes failed to improve at all from year one in college to year 2.

Waiters: 13.7 PER, 14.0 PER. Progression from year 1 to 2 but very marginal. He's small, inefficient, and not an elite athlete.

Thompson: 14.9 PER, 12.7 PER, 14.3 PER. Regression from year 1 to 2, and year 3 was still worse than year 1. He's an elite 3 point shooter but does absolutely nothing else. Low rebounds, assists, and FTAs per game. Also not an elite athlete.

A PER of 15 is considered league average. All three have consistently been below average (by that metric) with marginal or no progression or even regression. None are elite athletes with raw skill level that you could expect to progress quickly as they learn the game. Statistically, all are similar to OJ Mayo.

Edit:

For comparison:

Love - PERs of 18.3, 20.7, 24.3. He reached elite level quickly but is still managing to improve.

Lebron - 18.3, 25.7, 28.1

Durant - 15.8, 20.8, 26.2,

Kobe - 14.4, 18.5, 18.9

Not to say it's impossible...

DeRozan - 12.5, 14.5, 12.8 (18.4 this last year)... but it's a bad bet.

[Krapinsky]

Klay or Tristan? I'm pretty high on Klay. Solid young wing players are a rarity and i think Barnes (21 yr), Waiters (22 yr), and Klay (24 yr) all have all-star caliber seasons ahead of them. Why is there not a ton of hope of big improvement?

Klay. Look at the stats I posted above.

Barnes: 11.0 PER, 9.8 PER. He's already regressed despite being a very young player. A player that has all-star games in their futures should show consistent progression over their first few years. On top of that Barnes failed to improve at all from year one in college to year 2.

Waiters: 13.7 PER, 14.0 PER. Progression from year 1 to 2 but very marginal. He's small, inefficient, and not an elite athlete.

Thompson: 14.9 PER, 12.7 PER, 14.3 PER. Regression from year 1 to 2, and year 3 was still worse than year 1. He's an elite 3 point shooter but does absolutely nothing else. Low rebounds, assists, and FTAs per game. Also not an elite athlete.

A PER of 15 is considered league average. All three have consistently been below average (by that metric) with marginal or no progression or even regression. None are elite athletes with raw skill level that you could expect to progress quickly as they learn the game. Statistically, all are similar to OJ Mayo.

Look at these guys:

Harden (3rd year), Derozan (5th year), Afflalo (4th year), Joe Johnson (4th year)... there's countless examples of guys that took more than few years to develop and find themselves in the league.

[AQuintus]

Harden (3rd year),

14.0, 16.4, 21.1. Bad example. Harden showed consistent improvement from year 1 to year 3 and only had one year below 15 PER.

Derozan (5th year)

Addressed above

Afflalo (4th year)

Proves my point. Exactly 1 year (this last one) above 15 PER (16.0). His 4th year, while an improvement over his year 3 PER of 10.9 was still a below average 13.6 He plateued early and is also a fairly mediocre role-player. He's another guy I'd never trade Love for. In fact, plenty of us here value him around the 13th pick which isn't worth a ton.

Joe Johnson (4th year)

See: DeRozan

... there's countless examples of guys that took more than few years to develop and find themselves in the league.

And there are even more examples of guys that plateued early and never improved. Like I said above, it's a bad bet. Not to say that I wouldn't trade for those guys at all, but I certainly wouldn't take any of those three as a centerpiece in a deal for a top 10 player in this league.

Edit: I wouldn't bet on any of those three beating the odds and becoming an All-Star. Thompson might, but it will be because the SG position is super weak and he's got the GS hype-train (the same one that convinced some people *cough cough* that Anthony Randolph could be a star*) behind him.

*On a side not, remember when we used to talk about trading Love for Randolph straight up.

[Krapinsky]

For comparison:

Love - PERs of 18.3, 20.7, 24.3. He reached elite level quickly but is still managing to improve.

Lebron - 18.3, 25.7, 28.1

Durant - 15.8, 20.8, 26.2,

Kobe - 14.4, 18.5, 18.9

You're citing some of the greatest players to ever play the game as examples. Those guys were untouchable in trades from pretty much their first week in the league, with the exception of Love. You might as well throw Rose, Davis, Wade, and Shaq in there. We're not getting those kinds of guys in a Love trade. Heck, Love now wouldn't have even got you the pick to take Durant or Lebron at the time they were drafted (have to bend your imagination there, i know).

[AQuintus]

You're citing some of the greatest players to ever play the game as examples. Those guys were untouchable in trades from pretty much their first week in the league, with the exception of Love. You might as well throw Rose, Davis, Wade, and Shaq in there. We're not getting those kinds of guys in a Love trade. Heck, Love now wouldn't have even got you the pick to take Durant or Lebron at the time they were drafted (have to bend your imagination there, i know).

I'm not citing them as players we'd get in a trade for Love. I'm using them as an example of the kind of improvement you should expect from a guy year-to-year to project them as star players.

Here's some more examples:

Steph Curry: 16.3, 19.4, 21.2

Derrick Williams: 12.9, 14.5, 11.5

It's easy to see, based on those numbers, that Curry would be a star and Williams would be a bust.

[Krapinsky]

14.0, 16.4, 21.1. Bad example. Harden showed consistent improvement from year 1 to year 3 and only had one year below 15 PER.

Measuring consistent improvement based on PER isn't really scientific and there's extenuating circumstances in every case.15 PER is also a meaningless cut off. You say that's average, but do you know how many SG's had a 15 PER or better last year? 18 out of 65 (that played enough minutes to qualify). Lance Stephenson and Bradley Beal also don't make your 15 PER cut off. I guess those guys are worthless too.

With regard to Barnes and Klay, let's take a look at the Warriors. They have Curry, Lee, Bogut, Klay, Iggy, Barnes... so much depth, so many options, and only one ball to go around. In this case, everyone's PER suffers. Do you think that Iggy was a 'below average' player last year due to his sub-14 PER? Or do you think his PER took a hit because he was playing on a stacked team?

And there are even more examples of guys that plateued early and never improved. Like I said above, it's a bad bet. Not to say that I wouldn't trade for those guys at all, but I certainly wouldn't take any of those three as a centerpiece in a deal for a top 10 player in this league.

Edit: I wouldn't bet on any of those three beating the odds and becoming an All-Star. Thompson might, but it will be because the SG position is super weak and he's got the GS hype-train (the same one that convinced some people *cough cough* that Anthony Randolph could be a star*) behind him.

I think we just have different expectations of what to expect in a Love trade (if measuring in terms of NBA players we'd be getting back) and/or I think you place an disproportionate amount of value on picks vs. young players. Remember, we've drafted Williams, Johnson, and Flynn with our recent top 5 picks, and no one would take all three of those guys in place of one of Barnes, Thompson, or Waiters at this point.

[In2ition]

Remember, we've drafted Williams, Johnson, and Flynn with our recent top 5 picks, and no one would take all three of those guys in place of one of Barnes, Thompson, or Waiters at this point.

So you're saying that the Wolves should do a better job at drafting when they get a top 5 pick?

[Krapinsky]

You're citing some of the greatest players to ever play the game as examples. Those guys were untouchable in trades from pretty much their first week in the league, with the exception of Love. You might as well throw Rose, Davis, Wade, and Shaq in there. We're not getting those kinds of guys in a Love trade. Heck, Love now wouldn't have even got you the pick to take Durant or Lebron at the time they were drafted (have to bend your imagination there, i know).

I'm not citing them as players we'd get in a trade for Love. I'm using them as an example of the kind of improvement you should expect from a guy year-to-year to project them as star players.

Here's some more examples:

Steph Curry: 16.3, 19.4, 21.2

Derrick Williams: 12.9, 14.5, 11.5

It's easy to see, based on those numbers, that Curry would be a star and Williams would be a bust.

I don't disagree. But that's why I say I'm abnormally high on Barnes, Thompson, and Waiters. In saying that, I don't deny that I'm going out on a limb to some extent. With guys like Curry, Kobe, Durant, and other you named, I think just about everyone was in agreement that they were going to be stars eventually. I don't think Barnes, Klay, or Waiters will ever be franchise players like those guys, but can they be the 1st or 2nd best player on a playoff team? Sure.

[Krapinsky]

Remember, we've drafted Williams, Johnson, and Flynn with our recent top 5 picks, and no one would take all three of those guys in place of one of Barnes, Thompson, or Waiters at this point.

So you're saying that the Wolves should do a better job at drafting when they get a top 5 pick?

No, I'm saying a bird in the hand is sometimes better than two in the bush. You have to put an expected value on what you think the #5 pick is worth (taking into account the bust probability), and I don't know if it's better than Klay Thompson.