Poll: Who should the Wolves take with the #1 overall pick?

[Mattya]

It would be beyond optimistic to think we are going to suddenly be extremely healthy in comparison and adding rookie Towns would gives us 29 more wins.

It's beyond pessimistic to think that the Wolves' will be as injury riddled next year as they were this year and that Wiggins, LaVine, Dieng, Bennett, Payne, and Shabazz will all show no improvement.

Who said Wiggins, LaVine, Dieng, Bennett, Payne, and Bazz would show no improvement?

Its completely realistic we stay injury riddled considering we have been injury riddled for years now.

[King Malta]

You gotta be logical guize!

If every other teams best players get season ending injuries we won't just make the playoffs, we'll just about win the whole damn thing.

[AQuintus]

1. We are the in the west. I don't care if its an aging west, its still the west and the best teams are on another level its not even close.

Historically, especially the last 5-10 years, sure. But the past is the past, and things change. Odds are that the top teams will still be on another level (GS, Houston, etc), but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the trend of needing 50+ wins to even get the 8th seed ends as soon as next year.

2. We are still a very young team. We got 20 year old key players, most of our active roster will be less than 3 years removed from college basketball.

Fair enough. But this argument also applies to most of the teams that you mentioned, if not to the same extent. Teams like LAL, SAC, and Utah are also reliant on young guys.

3. chemistry. A lot of these other teams have been building their core and chemistry for multiple seasons. With all the injures and new players we are still in the early stages of that process.

Teams like DEN, SAC, PHO, LAL, and to a lesser extent, even Utah all also have bad or underdeveloped chemistry (SAC and DEN especially). I wouldn't used chemistry as a reason to put any of those teams over Minnesota.

[C.lupus]

Even if they stay healthy and the young guys improve, there are still nine teams that are easily better than this team. There is close to zero chance of the Wolves making the playoffs next year. Most likely they end up about where Utah ended this year, which would be a 20 win improvement over last year (about as much as can realistically be expected). Utah still finished 7 games out of the playoff picture, though.

[Merc_Porto]

You gotta be logical guize!

If every other teams best players get season ending injuries we won't just make the playoffs, we'll just about win the whole damn thing.

I'm doing a normal analysis that we going to be reasonably healthy.
Of course if you compare a healthy New Orleans team vs a injured Minnesota team, we dont have a chance.

[AQuintus]

Who said Wiggins, LaVine, Dieng, Bennett, Payne, and Bazz would show no improvement?

It's implied when you only bring up health and Towns as the difference between getting 29 additional wins or not.

Its completely realistic we stay injury riddled considering we have been injury riddled for years now.

It's also completely realistic that we aren't injury riddled next year since past injuries, unless chronic (like Pek's), have no relation to future injuries. The assumption of health is based only on pessimism vs optimism.

[AQuintus]

Even if they stay healthy and the young guys improve, there are still nine teams that are easily better than this team.

Even regardless of potential injuries to those teams, I'm not convinced that this is the case.

Edit:

would be a 20 win improvement over last year (about as much as can realistically be expected).

Maybe it's just me, but my prediction for wins this past season, if healthy, was 35 wins. That was with Mo, Brewer, Thad, and a healthy Pek.

I guess it really comes down to how much the number 1 overall pick + internal improvements + free agency and trades to all of our young guys + free agency and trades make up the for losing Mo, Brewer, Thad, and a healthy Pek.

I'm an optimist, so I expect that they will more than make up for those losses, and I don't think 40 wins is unreasonable. If 40-45 wins is enough to make the playoffs in the West will depend on the rest of the West, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility at all.

As I mentioned already, there are multiple teams that are an extended injury from their star from missing the playoffs (NOH, HOU, GS), and there are multiple teams that have major question marks (age, important free agents) that could keep them out of the playoffs.

[King Malta]

You gotta be logical guize!

If every other teams best players get season ending injuries we won't just make the playoffs, we'll just about win the whole damn thing.

I'm doing a normal analysis that we going to be reasonably healthy.
Of course if you compare a healthy New Orleans team vs a injured Minnesota team, we dont have a chance.

I'd still say that if you're comparing a healthy Wolves v a healthy Pelicans they have our number.

There's no evidence to say that Towns will be better (or worse to be fair) than Asik, BUT Asik has been displaying solid NBA level defence for years whereas Towns is an untried rook, so that can't be used as an evaluation imo. Also, a fit Gordon is a better player than Martin and I actually like what KMart brings to this team.

Like it's been said too, the AD factor is absolutely huge. I know, Wiggins can be a big factor for us next season, but in AD you're talking about potentially the best player in the league and without a doubt the best big man in the league. Players like AD change lottery sides into bottom of the playoffs sides and turn bottom of the playoffs sides into conference finals teams.

[Mattya]

It's implied when you only bring up health and Towns as the difference between getting 29 additional wins or not.

No its not.

It's also completely realistic that we aren't injury riddled next year since past injuries, unless chronic (like Pek's), have no relation to future injuries. The assumption of health is based only on pessimism vs optimism.

It is realistic, just not likely. Nothing to do with pessimism. Just basing my opinion on the likelihood that we will have injuries based off the fact that we have been above league average in games missed to injury for a few season now.

[mondry]

so that makes 9 teams,

You're assuming that all 8 teams that made it this year will also make it next year. I don't think that that's a safe assumption to make.

Not really, I'm saying there's 10 or 11 teams that will likely have a better record than us AS OF RIGHT NOW, so even if 3 of them get worse / have injuries / whatever that still might only move us up to 8-9 and that's assuming we can win 48 games to be relevant.

[Merc_Porto]

Maybe it's just me, but my prediction for wins this past season, if healthy, was 35 wins. That was with Mo, Brewer, Thad, and a healthy Pek.

And most important, Ricky Rubio.

[Calinks]

It's not impossible the wolves could pull off the miracle of miracles and make the playoffs so they can get obliterated in 4 games but we are saying chances are, it aint going to happen. Key guys on our team are very young and still figuring things out. Some of those other teams have more seasoned players in key positions which give them an edge. We very well still could have an outside shooting problem which wont cut it in todays game. Our starting center could be Towns or Okafor who will probably get abused more times than not becasue coming into the NBA and banging with the big boys is, in a word, rough. Our number 1 point guard probably still wont be able to shoot. Our number 1 PG backup probably still wont be able to run an offense. We have defensive holes all over the place.

I mean, A LOT has to be cleaned up for us to make the playoffs. It's just not likely. We have more gaps on this squad than the 10 biggest malls in the US have combined.

[C.lupus]

Even if they stay healthy and the young guys improve, there are still nine teams that are easily better than this team.

Even regardless of potential injuries to those teams, I'm not convinced that this is the case.

Edit:

Golden State
Houston
LA Clippers
Portland
Memphis
San Antonio
Dallas
New Orleans
Oklahoma City

Which of those nine do see the Wolves being better than?

[AQuintus]

Golden State
Houston
LA Clippers
Portland
Memphis
San Antonio
Dallas
New Orleans
Oklahoma City

Which of those nine do see the Wolves being better than?[/quote]

I could see them being better than Portland (if Aldridge leaves), Memphis (if Gasol leaves), San Antonio (if their guys retire or if their play drops off due to age), and Dallas (if Dirk's play drops off due to age).

[Merc_Porto]

so that makes 9 teams,

You're assuming that all 8 teams that made it this year will also make it next year. I don't think that that's a safe assumption to make.

Not really, I'm saying there's 10 or 11 teams that will likely have a better record than us AS OF RIGHT NOW, so even if 3 of them get worse / have injuries / whatever that still might only move us up to 8-9 and that's assuming we can win 48 games to be relevant.

I understand, but looking at standings last season.

Playoffs

Warriors
Rockets
Clippers
Portland - They will fall big if they lose Aldrige.
Memphis - Same fall if they lose Gasol
Spurs - Who knows ?
Dallas - They are older, and they are not that good anymore. Depending of course their moves in FA.
New Orleans - If i personal see us being at least equal in terms of roster potencial.

________________________________________________________________________________________

I see 3 (OKC in) new spots right there that are going to be available for a really good fight.
Again after that you have:

Utah - They could be fighting for a spot, sure.
Phoenix - NO WAY, they are worse.
Denver - They are a mess right now.
Sacramento - They could be fighting for a spot. Or not.
Lakers - Who knows ?
Minnesota - I believe we can make a run.

The West will get weaker, I have no doubt of that.

[Worm Guts]

There are a few variables that could affect how good we are quite a bit. If we get a solid veteran backup PG, get more playing time from Pek than expected, and have someone step up and give quality PF minutes after KG then we could be an interesting team.

[horaceworthy]

Who said Wiggins, LaVine, Dieng, Bennett, Payne, and Bazz would show no improvement?

It's implied when you only bring up health and Towns as the difference between getting 29 additional wins or not.

Its completely realistic we stay injury riddled considering we have been injury riddled for years now.

It's also completely realistic that we aren't injury riddled next year since past injuries, unless chronic (like Pek's), have no relation to future injuries. The assumption of health is based only on pessimism vs optimism.

The injuries with the biggest impact were Rubio, Pek and Martin. Rubio's played over 60 games once, Pek twice, and it's been about a 50/50 bet for Martin throughout his career. It's possible not to count on those three making it through a full year and still be an optimist.

[The J Rocka]

It's way too early to be having this discussion.

[Foye]

Even if they stay healthy and the young guys improve, there are still nine teams that are easily better than this team. There is close to zero chance of the Wolves making the playoffs next year. Most likely they end up about where Utah ended this year, which would be a 20 win improvement over last year (about as much as can realistically be expected). Utah still finished 7 games out of the playoff picture, though.

I guess it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to get another pick in range 8 to 12 next year. We'll still have some holes to fill by then.

[urinesane]

It's way too early to be having this discussion.

/end of that discussion.