Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[BlacJacMac]

Leonard Miller doesn’t quite make enough. They are both on vet min deals, but he only has one year of experience.

Would you trade TJ Shannon for this package, to maybe open a few more minutes for NAW?

Good point on the Miller salary. I really like what NAW brings to this team, but with his expiring contract and our acquisition of Ragu, he's expendable to me for the right deal.

There wasn't a bigger fan of TSJ leading up to the Draft. I'd definitely prefer to keep him. His Rookie deal is valuable and I strongly believe he'll be a good player for this team when given minutes.

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The question is what does NAW expect in his next contract. He had a bad playoffs and one solid year/ year and a third with an otherwise unsuccessful career. If he has told the team he wants 10-12 we could make that work. If he said 20-30 he is gone. Of course the hard part in trading him is the low salary. A rookie scale C with some upside is my preference.

Is he going to have a big enough role going forward to want to stay here? He's 26 years old and will have made 23M over his 6 year career after this season. Just entering his prime, my guess is he'll want minutes more than anything. And he's a guy who will be desired by Playoff teams.

Last year he was the clear 7th man and first guard off the bench - and he still only averaged 23 MPG. This year, he's far behind Donte for both those roles. Barring injuries, is he even a 15 MPG guy?

And if TSJ shows any signs of being a legit rotational player, NAW is going to get squeezed out.

[shrink]

I think as Wolves fans, we are conditioned to be thinking about the future, because the “presents” for this franchise are usually bad. And Tim Connelly may have been forced to take a slight back step by trading away Towns, and most fans can understand the economic issues. Finding young role players that can produce on the cheap is important for a team’s longterm financial balance and success.

That said, NBA Championship windows are ridiculously short, and generally unstable. Teams are often one injury (or sometimes one failure to keep talent through free agency) away from going from contender to also ran. Memphis two years ago looked to be in the championship hunt for years to come.

I don’t know if Tim Connelly sees championship windows as valuable and brief as I do, and we may see how he feels if he is willing to trade NAW away on a more longterm solution. He’s traded away most of our future picks to be win-now, so he’s invested. All teams need regular season depth, but with Naz, NAW and DDV, all of who need minutes, we probably need less depth than almost any contender. We could still see NAW traded, but I doubt we’ll also be investing a ton of minutes this year for development of three players with virtually no NBA experience (Dillingham, Shannon and Minott). Having a chance at a championship is rare, especially in Minnesota, and I hope we don’t waste it.

EDIT: Finally, if the offers for NAW aren’t great, I think we could see a Connelly keep both NAW and Shannon. We could still lose NAW for nothing in the summer, but the opportunity to use him in the 2025 playoffs might be more valuable than some crappy future return.

[Klomp]

Naz Reid for Keegan Murray, who says no first?

We cannot pay Keegan Murray. Naz might get 20, Murray will get 40 easy. Naz took less to be here, he should stay, get his money here, and grow with the pack.

Well, we’d have another year with Keegan Murray on rookie scale for 2025-26, and I doubt he gets a max, especially if he joins our stacked team. I also think with Naz gone, his number is going to be more than $20.

Keegan is a good defender, but he is miscast as SAC’s point-of-attack defender. But the King’s biggest problem is they don’t have any other options - the other four starters are all below average defenders. The Kings are another team that could really use NAW or McDaniels.

I love Keegan Murray, but in the end, since we have Ant, Jaden, NAW and DDV, he’s probably more valuable to the SAC than MIN. Keegan is probably overkill with us, while Naz plays an important role. Interesting idea, though!

Thanks, I think you hit on some of the points I had in mind. Also, while Naz never made it to free agency, Sacramento was rumored to be one of the most interested teams in his services. And they haven't been afraid to make a bold move, giving away one of their younger pieces to get a guy they really covet.

[frankenwolf]

Finally, if the offers for NAW aren’t great, I think we could see a Connelly keep both NAW and Shannon. We could still lose NAW for nothing in the summer, but the opportunity to use him in the 2025 playoffs might be more valuable than some crappy future return.

I understand little of the CBA regarding cap limits, but won't we lose NAW's salary slot if he walks away at the end of the season? Just wondering if trading him for "future crappy return" might be worthwhile for salary cap purposes.

Thanks in advance to all you Cap stars!!

[Klomp]

Finally, if the offers for NAW aren’t great, I think we could see a Connelly keep both NAW and Shannon. We could still lose NAW for nothing in the summer, but the opportunity to use him in the 2025 playoffs might be more valuable than some crappy future return.

I understand little of the CBA regarding cap limits, but won't we lose NAW's salary slot if he walks away at the end of the season? Just wondering if trading him for "future crappy return" might be worthwhile for salary cap purposes.

Thanks in advance to all you Cap stars!!

Yes, but $4 million isn't exactly a significant salary slot to hang onto. It's honestly not that much more than the minimum, and I think it's less than half of the MLE.

[TimberKat]

Finally, if the offers for NAW aren’t great, I think we could see a Connelly keep both NAW and Shannon. We could still lose NAW for nothing in the summer, but the opportunity to use him in the 2025 playoffs might be more valuable than some crappy future return.

I understand little of the CBA regarding cap limits, but won't we lose NAW's salary slot if he walks away at the end of the season? Just wondering if trading him for "future crappy return" might be worthwhile for salary cap purposes.

Thanks in advance to all you Cap stars!!

Yes, but $4 million isn't exactly a significant salary slot to hang onto. It's honestly not that much more than the minimum, and I think it's less than half of the MLE.

If we are going to lose him in the summer, is there any value doing a sign and trade? Maybe get a second round pick?

[moretins]

I understand little of the CBA regarding cap limits, but won't we lose NAW's salary slot if he walks away at the end of the season? Just wondering if trading him for "future crappy return" might be worthwhile for salary cap purposes.

Thanks in advance to all you Cap stars!!

Yes, but $4 million isn't exactly a significant salary slot to hang onto. It's honestly not that much more than the minimum, and I think it's less than half of the MLE.

If we are going to lose him in the summer, is there any value doing a sign and trade? Maybe get a second round pick?

Second apron teams can't sign-and-trade their own players to acquire others

[Klomp]

Yes, but $4 million isn't exactly a significant salary slot to hang onto. It's honestly not that much more than the minimum, and I think it's less than half of the MLE.

If we are going to lose him in the summer, is there any value doing a sign and trade? Maybe get a second round pick?

Second apron teams can't sign-and-trade their own players to acquire others

No but trading for a second round pick should be allowed, like we did with Kyle Anderson. It's certainly an option on the table.

[winforlose]

If we are going to lose him in the summer, is there any value doing a sign and trade? Maybe get a second round pick?

Second apron teams can't sign-and-trade their own players to acquire others

No but trading for a second round pick should be allowed, like we did with Kyle Anderson. It's certainly an option on the table.

This, plus many players will want to as it passes their bird rights to the acquiring team.

[wolves_89]

With the regular season a week away, there are a couple of minor roster questions still remaining. First, how does the team get down to 15 players. My guess is it will either be waiving PJ Dozier or trading KBD. My other question is whether Connelly can find a better player to fill the last two-way spot. Jesse Edwards has good size/length, but I'm skeptical that he's even capable of succeeding in the G-League. I expect there will be quite a few guys getting cut this week that qualify for a two-way and have a better chance of becoming an NBA caliber player.

[Neeva]

For people that want a young backup center why not aim higher than Walker Kessler? Use NAW and detriot pick and seconds ? For Mark Williams. He is an injury risk however. Or Jalen Duren? Those two are not being developed by their current teams and have much higher ceilings than Kessler.

[BlacJacMac]

For people that want a young backup center why not aim higher than Walker Kessler? Use NAW and detriot pick and seconds ? For Mark Williams. He is an injury risk however. Or Jalen Duren? Those two are not being developed by their current teams and have much higher ceilings than Kessler.

I don't think that package gets you either guy. But I'd do backflips for either deal.

[Klomp]

I've been thinking about this a lot....

In theory, we could make a 2-for-1 trade to fix our roster situation, and save ownership a little more cash (I know, I know, how dare I bring that up).

How can that be?

Keita Bates-Diop and PJ Dozier are both on minimum contracts. A team can absorb either of them without sending out any salary. Then, if we wanted to, we could send out someone like NAW in return for a big man making less than his $4,312,500 to balance out the roster.

[minimus]

Yes, but $4 million isn't exactly a significant salary slot to hang onto. It's honestly not that much more than the minimum, and I think it's less than half of the MLE.

If we are going to lose him in the summer, is there any value doing a sign and trade? Maybe get a second round pick?

Second apron teams can't sign-and-trade their own players to acquire others

And this is a correct answer

[minimus]

I think the idea that I keep going back to is NAW and that DET 1st for Walker Kessler. Utah might not want NAW, but they should be able to find a taker for him easily enough...

Damn, this would be the most TC trade ever! He drafted and traded Gobert, and traded for Gobert. He drafted, traded Beasley and Vando TWICE

However, I'd trade NAW and that DET 1st for Walker Kessler in a heartbeat, BUT I'd would ask to take Garza salary as well, and try to get an early SRP. Something like this

MIN OUT: NAW, DET 1st, Garza (separate trade)
MIN IN: Kessler, SRP

UTA IN: DET 1st
UTA OUT: Kessler, SRP

3rd team IN: NAW, Garza
3rd team OUT: ?

Gobert/Reid/Kessler
Randle/Minott/Ingles
McDaniels/KBD/TJ
Edwards/DDV/Dozier + Clark
Conley/DDV/Rob + Nix

Although I love NAW from the very first day I saw his scouting report, I want to see this trade happen!

Depends on what happens this season and next offseason, this trade brings a LOT of flexibility. I like the idea of Kessler Walker playing in MIN and learning from Gobert AND having whole infrastructure around for such specific defensive minded bigman.

[Domejandro]

I think that Minnesota is going to trade a Second Round Draft Pick to get off of Keita Bates-Diop's guaranteed minimum salary for this season. My assumption is that Tim Connelly is hunting to see if a team will accept a protected second or a second round pick swap, but in reality, using a second to dump Keita saves a ton of money. They may just waive P.J. Dozier and eat a couple million ($500k + tax), but my expectation is that a dump is imminent.

[minimus]

I think that Minnesota is going to trade a Second Round Draft Pick to get off of Keita Bates-Diop's guaranteed minimum salary for this season. My assumption is that Tim Connelly is hunting to see if a team will accept a protected second or a second round pick swap, but in reality, using a second to dump Keita saves a ton of money. They may just waive P.J. Dozier and eat a couple million ($500k + tax), but my expectation is that a dump is imminent.

Dozier is playing, and KBD is not playing in preseason...

[shrink]

I think that Minnesota is going to trade a Second Round Draft Pick to get off of Keita Bates-Diop's guaranteed minimum salary for this season. My assumption is that Tim Connelly is hunting to see if a team will accept a protected second or a second round pick swap, but in reality, using a second to dump Keita saves a ton of money. They may just waive P.J. Dozier and eat a couple million ($500k + tax), but my expectation is that a dump is imminent.

Dozier is playing, and KBD is not playing in preseason...

That stood out to me too. Sadly, it’s difficult to see an effect, and guess at the right cause. Logic works the other direction.

EFFECT: NYK is forced to trade multiple guys, but MIN ends up with the veteran.
CAUSE?: MIN is contending and wants a vet amidst all its youth? Or MIN was forced to take him to get the DET 1st included?

EFFECT: Dozier is playing, KBD is out
CAUSE?: KBD is not part of MIN’s future? Or Connelly wants PJ Dozier on the court to showcase him and make him easier to trade? Or we already know what KBD is, but other bench players need minutes?

Right now, I’m not sure which way Connelly is leaning.

[Klomp]

I think that Minnesota is going to trade a Second Round Draft Pick to get off of Keita Bates-Diop's guaranteed minimum salary for this season. My assumption is that Tim Connelly is hunting to see if a team will accept a protected second or a second round pick swap, but in reality, using a second to dump Keita saves a ton of money. They may just waive P.J. Dozier and eat a couple million ($500k + tax), but my expectation is that a dump is imminent.

Dozier is playing, and KBD is not playing in preseason...

That stood out to me too. Sadly, it’s difficult to see an effect, and guess at the right cause. Logic works the other direction.

EFFECT: NYK is forced to trade multiple guys, but MIN ends up with the veteran.
CAUSE?: MIN is contending and wants a vet amidst all its youth? Or MIN was forced to take him to get the DET 1st included?

EFFECT: Dozier is playing, KBD is out
CAUSE?: KBD is not part of MIN’s future? Or Connelly wants PJ Dozier on the court to showcase him and make him easier to trade? Or we already know what KBD is, but other bench players need minutes?

Right now, I’m not sure which way Connelly is leaning.

Option 3: Trade Luka to OKC for a 1st

[BlacJacMac]

Dozier is playing, and KBD is not playing in preseason...

That stood out to me too. Sadly, it’s difficult to see an effect, and guess at the right cause. Logic works the other direction.

EFFECT: NYK is forced to trade multiple guys, but MIN ends up with the veteran.
CAUSE?: MIN is contending and wants a vet amidst all its youth? Or MIN was forced to take him to get the DET 1st included?

EFFECT: Dozier is playing, KBD is out
CAUSE?: KBD is not part of MIN’s future? Or Connelly wants PJ Dozier on the court to showcase him and make him easier to trade? Or we already know what KBD is, but other bench players need minutes?

Right now, I’m not sure which way Connelly is leaning.

Option 3: Trade Luka to OKC for a 1st

For a 1st what?