Post#1632 » by urinesane » Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:23 pm
Number 17
Year Player School/Country – Team
2019 Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech – New Orleans Pelicans (1 start in 1 season) avg 1 start per season
2018 Donte DiVincenzo, Villanova – Milwaukee Bucks (24 games in 2 seasons) avg 12 starts per season
2017 D.J. Wilson, Michigan – Milwaukee Bucks (3 starts in 3 seasons) avg 1 start per season
2016 Wade Baldwin, Vanderbilt – Memphis Grizzlies (1 start in 3 seasons) avg .33 start per season
2015 Rashad Vaughn, UNLV – Milwaukee Bucks (8 starts in 3 seasons) avg 2.66 starts per season
2014 James Young, Kentucky – Boston Celtics (0 starts in 4 seasons) avg 0 starts per season
2013 Dennis Schroeder, Germany – Atlanta Hawks (305 starts in 7 seasons) avg 43.5 starts per season
2012 Tyler Zeller, UNC – Dallas Mavericks (166 starts in 8 seasons) avg 20.75 starts per season
2011 Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech – New York Knicks (382 starts in 9 seasons) avg 42.4 starts per season
2010 Kevin Seraphin, France – Chicago Bulls (34 starts in 7 seasons) avg 4.85 starts per season
2000’s
2009 Jrue Holiday, UCLA – Philadelphia 76ers (640 starts in 11 seasons) avg 58 starts per season
2008 Roy Hibbert, Georgetown – Toronto Raptors (586 starts in 8 seasons) avg 73.25 starts per season
2007 Sean Williams, Boston College – New Jersey Nets (29 starts (all in 1st season) in 4 seasons) 7.25 starts per season
2006 Shawne Williams, Memphis – Indiana Pacers (58 starts in 7 seasons) avg 8.25 per season
2005 Danny Granger, New Mexico – Indiana Pacers (475 starts in 10 seasons) avg 47.5 starts per season
2004 Josh Smith, Oak Hill Academy H.S. VA – Atlanta Hawks (772 starts in 13 seasons) avg 59.4 starts per season
2003 Zarko Cabarkapa, Serbia & Montenegro – Phoenix Suns (4 starts in 3 seasons) avg 1.33 starts per season
2002 Juan Dixon, Maryland – Washington Wizards (77 starts in 7 seasons) avg 11 starts per season
2001 Michael Bradley, Villanova – Toronto Raptors (13 starts in 5 seasons) avg 2.6 starts per season
2000 Desmond Mason, Oklahoma State – Seattle Supersonics (385 starts in 10 seasons) avg 38.5 starts per season
So based on the last 20 drafts the 17th pick has a 35% chance of being what I would consider a consistent starter in the league. In the last 10 drafts this number is only 20% which means there's an 80% chance the pick at 17 won't be a starter.
My point being, of course you look for the best player you can get at this position, but having an expectation of finding a starter at this pick doesn't jive with the actual odds of finding one.