Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[Klomp]

Honestly, I think the odds are higher that Miller will be traded at the deadline than him cracking the post-deadline rotation.

Agreed again. I think the only way he plays more than token minutes down the stretch is if we lock into our Playoff seeding with a handful of games left and cruise down the stretch.

Miller has managed 19 garbage minutes all season. If Finch had any plans to play him this year, he would've gotten more minutes.

He's also 212 pounds...so he doesn't help defending the more physical players that can give us trouble. He's much more of a SF at this point than a big.

(That said, I think we only trade him if we're getting someone back that is much better than a Tyus or Morris level player - which I think is very unlikely).

It comes down to if they feel the guy they're acquiring is a longterm fit. Tyus might be that guy, if I'm being honest. I'm not sure Tyus gets traded here without giving up Miller.

[Klomp]

Right now, near the very top of my wish list are Monte Morris and Royce O'Neale. I don't think it's outlandish to say we could get both of them here, and I think that wold be a home run trade deadline!

I think it's good to point out as well, Brooklyn might be one of the few places that might value Anderson's contributions as a player, considering the oft-injured Ben Simmons has a very similar archetype and they don't run lineups with many non-shooters otherwise.

My question is would both resign? I cannot remember where I heard it (some pod,) they warned that the Wolves are in very serious danger of any expiring leaving and not being replaceable next year. Having bird rights for Morris and O’Neale help a lot, but they still need to want to stay. We would also probably have to pay both of them around 10-11 to keep them. Assuming getting them costs Shake, Troy, and Kyle now rotations for next season are:

Mike/Ant/Jaden/Karl/Rudy
Morris/NAW/O’Neale/Miller/Naz
JMAC (if back cheap,)/Minott/ plus draft picks.

The question of if guys will re-sign is a little more important to me at backup/potential starting PG than it is on the wing. Yes it'd be nice, but I don't think it's a requirement for us in order to pull the trigger on most guys we're talking about in these price points.

[winforlose]

Right now, near the very top of my wish list are Monte Morris and Royce O'Neale. I don't think it's outlandish to say we could get both of them here, and I think that wold be a home run trade deadline!

I think it's good to point out as well, Brooklyn might be one of the few places that might value Anderson's contributions as a player, considering the oft-injured Ben Simmons has a very similar archetype and they don't run lineups with many non-shooters otherwise.

My question is would both resign? I cannot remember where I heard it (some pod,) they warned that the Wolves are in very serious danger of any expiring leaving and not being replaceable next year. Having bird rights for Morris and O’Neale help a lot, but they still need to want to stay. We would also probably have to pay both of them around 10-11 to keep them. Assuming getting them costs Shake, Troy, and Kyle now rotations for next season are:

Mike/Ant/Jaden/Karl/Rudy
Morris/NAW/O’Neale/Miller/Naz
JMAC (if back cheap,)/Minott/ plus draft picks.

The question of if guys will re-sign is a little more important to me at backup/potential starting PG than it is on the wing. Yes it'd be nice, but I don't think it's a requirement for us in order to pull the trigger on most guys we're talking about in these price points.

Depends on who we get, what we spent to get them, how well we do in the playoffs (ring chasers come for a finals appearance or win, maybe not for a 2nd round exit or even a WCF exit,) and whether Ant makes all NBA and costs us the extra 7.

[Klomp]

Right now, near the very top of my wish list are Monte Morris and Royce O'Neale. I don't think it's outlandish to say we could get both of them here, and I think that wold be a home run trade deadline!

I think it's good to point out as well, Brooklyn might be one of the few places that might value Anderson's contributions as a player, considering the oft-injured Ben Simmons has a very similar archetype and they don't run lineups with many non-shooters otherwise.

Talking big picture here if both happened

OUT: Kyle Anderson ($9,219,512), Shake Milton ($5,000,000), Troy Brown Jr ($4,000,000), Wendell Moore Jr ($2,421,720) = $20,641,232
IN: Royce O'Neale ($9,500,000), Monte Morris ($9,800,926) = $19,300,926

You have $1,340,306 difference and 2 roster spots that you have to make up for. Is this feasible while still saving room for the potential Conley bonus?

[winforlose]

Right now, near the very top of my wish list are Monte Morris and Royce O'Neale. I don't think it's outlandish to say we could get both of them here, and I think that wold be a home run trade deadline!

I think it's good to point out as well, Brooklyn might be one of the few places that might value Anderson's contributions as a player, considering the oft-injured Ben Simmons has a very similar archetype and they don't run lineups with many non-shooters otherwise.

Talking big picture here if both happened

OUT: Kyle Anderson ($9,219,512), Shake Milton ($5,000,000), Troy Brown Jr ($4,000,000), Wendell Moore Jr ($2,421,720) = $20,641,232
IN: Royce O'Neale ($9,500,000), Monte Morris ($9,800,926) = $19,300,926

You have $1,340,306 difference and 2 roster spots that you have to make up for. Is this feasible while still saving room for the potential Conley bonus?

The Conley bonus is 1.5. Using Shrinks numbers and approximating you need just under 1.5 for 2 replacement players. That said, maybe you can convert Luka a bit cheaper and get that number to 1.4 or 1.3. Still this is a tax team this year using those numbers. Add Minott and convert another G league guy and maybe. Or JMAC who makes around what Minott makes.

Either way if O’Neale leaves, next year you have a vet minimum and no tradable salary outside of KAT to replace him.

[KGdaBom]

Right now, near the very top of my wish list are Monte Morris and Royce O'Neale. I don't think it's outlandish to say we could get both of them here, and I think that wold be a home run trade deadline!

I think it's good to point out as well, Brooklyn might be one of the few places that might value Anderson's contributions as a player, considering the oft-injured Ben Simmons has a very similar archetype and they don't run lineups with many non-shooters otherwise.

Talking big picture here if both happened

OUT: Kyle Anderson ($9,219,512), Shake Milton ($5,000,000), Troy Brown Jr ($4,000,000), Wendell Moore Jr ($2,421,720) = $20,641,232
IN: Royce O'Neale ($9,500,000), Monte Morris ($9,800,926) = $19,300,926

You have $1,340,306 difference and 2 roster spots that you have to make up for. Is this feasible while still saving room for the potential Conley bonus?

The Conley bonus is 1.5. Using Shrinks numbers and approximating you need just under 1.5 for 2 replacement players. That said, maybe you can convert Luka a bit cheaper and get that number to 1.4 or 1.3. Still this is a tax team this year using those numbers. Add Minott and convert another G league guy and maybe. Or JMAC who makes around what Minott makes.

Either way if O’Neale leaves, next year you have a vet minimum and no tradable salary outside of KAT to replace him.

I really, really, really hope Conley's bonus is achieved.

[Neeva]

Now is the perfect time to trade Kat, before his extension kicks in and he’s been looking great so his value is high and before a possible playoffs meltdown. No one would expect it and there are some very desperate teams right now i:e Hawks (who owe unprotected picks,have unhappy players and are currently lotto bound and will overpay)
Wolves can get a PF starter like Markannen, a shooter like Bogdan and picks (to use on future trade) and save enough money next season to resign Conley and avoid the tax? I think the Hawks would heavily prefer pairing Towns up with Trae over Markannen.

[Klomp]

Time for more awesome trades at the deadline.
Lets end up with Bojan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris and pick up Hayward when he gets traded and bought out.

What assets are Minnesota offering for Bojan Bogdanović?

No idea but it was mentioned the wolves are interested in him. I meant Bogdan btw, the hawk not the piston sorry, I always get the two confused.

Minnesota Timberwolves – Hawks veteran Bogdan Bogdanovic has drawn attention from the Minnesota Timberwolves in recent weeks, sources said. However, Minnesota's cap situation and Bogdanovic's contract do not line up well. In attempts to upgrade their roster, the Timberwolves have shown a level of willingness to discuss Kyle Anderson's future, seeing as he is in the final year of his contract.

https://clutchpoints.com/sources-dejounte-murray-bruce-brown-warriors-trade-deadline-rumors-intel

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[winforlose]

What assets are Minnesota offering for Bojan Bogdanović?

No idea but it was mentioned the wolves are interested in him. I meant Bogdan btw, the hawk not the piston sorry, I always get the two confused.

Minnesota Timberwolves – Hawks veteran Bogdan Bogdanovic has drawn attention from the Minnesota Timberwolves in recent weeks, sources said. However, Minnesota's cap situation and Bogdanovic's contract do not line up well. In attempts to upgrade their roster, the Timberwolves have shown a level of willingness to discuss Kyle Anderson's future, seeing as he is in the final year of his contract.

https://clutchpoints.com/sources-dejounte-murray-bruce-brown-warriors-trade-deadline-rumors-intel

Read on Twitter

18.7 mil and decreasing. Trading Kyle, and Shake gets us there. Problem is it adds 4.4 million, and creates a roster spot. We also have to be careful of the hard cap. This move pretty much means we are giving up on a backup PG and if Mike goes down the season ends. Also, our PG of the future is either a vet minimum or a late first, or we are stuck moving Karl for a PG of the future due to short sighted moves by the FO. While I wouldn’t say the odds are 0%, I think they are around 1%. Especially considering that Atlanta has no reason to say yes to giving him to us.

[shrink]

Is this ClutchPoints guy, Brett Siegel, really an insider? Anyone know the guy?

He looks like he’s 15 years old.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Bogdan would be a perfect fit for us, but we are lacking assets.. if atl is into Leonard miller, we should consider it

[winforlose]

Bogdan would be a perfect fit for us, but we are lacking assets.. if atl is into Leonard miller, we should consider it

Kyle, Shake, and Miller for BB has us add 2.6 and change (almost 2.7) with 2 roster spots to fill. Also worth noting Miller is supposed to be our future replacement for Kyle. If we send him out for help with a SG we leave a hole at PF now and in the future, as well as having no assets to fill the hole at PG now or in the future (when Mike gets old and slows down/retires)

[TimberKat]

Is this ClutchPoints guy, Brett Siegel, really an insider? Anyone know the guy?

He looks like he’s 15 years old.

At least he got the tax right. Do Wolves really have the luxury to afford a 17mil bench guy? I would go for the other Bogdanovic who has one year less contract. Maybe something like Bogdan+Ivey for KA + JMcD. Roll the dice on Ivey to be the future point guard and trade away JMcD's contract for Bogdan's contract.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Is this ClutchPoints guy, Brett Siegel, really an insider? Anyone know the guy?

He looks like he’s 15 years old.

At least he got the tax right. Do Wolves really have the luxury to afford a 17mil bench guy? I would go for the other Bogdanovic who has one year less contract. Maybe something like Bogdan+Ivey for KA + JMcD. Roll the dice on Ivey to be the future point guard and trade away JMcD's contract for Bogdan's contract.

That is a pretty interesting trade there. I'd do it, but Detroit can't/wont take the risk yet on ivey even though jaden is somewhat proven.

[winforlose]

If Embiid is down for the season and Philly decides to sell, what about TBJ, Shake, and a 2nd for Melton. Then you trade Kyle for Monte Morris, trade Wendell into space, and sign a buyout SF/PF.

Rotation
Mike/Ant/Jaden/Karl/Rudy
Morris/Melton/NAW/NAZ
JMAC/Minott/Miller,

Plus two buyout guys to slot in where you want them.

[BlacJacMac]

If Embiid is down for the season and Philly decides to sell, what about TBJ, Shake, and a 2nd for Melton. Then you trade Kyle for Monte Morris, trade Wendell into space, and sign a buyout SF/PF.

Rotation
Mike/Ant/Jaden/Karl/Rudy
Morris/Melton/NAW/NAZ
JMAC/Minott/Miller,

Plus two buyout guys to slot in where you want them.

Does Philly swap expiring contracts just to pick up a 2nd rounder?

Or are they more likely to want to keep his Bird Rights?

[minimus]

Towns, Milton, Moore for Suggs, Isaac, WCJ, 2025 ORL FRP, 2026 ORL FRP, two SRPs.

Why for ORL: they form a very dangerous five-out ready frontcourt Towns-Banchero-Wagner, Suggs and WCJ can be replaced with Black, Mo Wagner and Bitadze. Isaac is not reliable enough to be in long term plans. ORL can afford Towns contract, because of rookie contracts of Wagner and Banchero.

Why for MIN:

1) they unload Towns massive contract and get manageable, tradable contracts and picks to operate in future.

- in 2024-25 Isaac has 17.4 mil non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 1/10/25
- WCJ has descending contract 12 mil in 2024-25, 11 mil in 2025-26

2) they get future starting PG in Suggs, hometown kid, already a tough, physical, defensive minded specialist who is shooting 45% FG, 39% 3PT

3) they get two FRPs, two SRPs to operate in trades

In this scenario I still think we can win one playoff series, but it will be definitely a challenge for coaching staff to replace Towns with Reid/Anderson/Isaac production. But I think what we lose in offensive production in starting unit, we can compensate by Suggs defense and shooting in second unit.

Gobert/WCJ/Reid + Garza
Reid/Isaac/Anderson + Minott
McDaniels/Anderson/TBJ + Miller
Edwards/NAW/TBJ
Conley/Suggs/McLaughlin + Nix

But the most interesting part begins next season:

if my calculation are correct then if we let Isaac go and re-sign Conely (30 mil/2yrs) and McLaughlin (vetmin) we are 7.8 mil below tax line, sign FRP and SRP:

Gobert/WCJ/Reid
Reid/Minott/Miller
McDaniels/TBJ/???
Edwards/NAW/???
Conley/Suggs/McLaughlin

Here TC will have flexibility to resign Anderson, or keep Isaaс and trade later, resign NAW. In this scenario we will still need a shooter, but I like how consistent our identity will be on defensive end, while we will keep Gobert/Reid/McDaniels/Edwards/Conley/NAW core for two years together. X-factor here is Miller if he can provide an upgrade to our bench unit

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[winforlose]

If Embiid is down for the season and Philly decides to sell, what about TBJ, Shake, and a 2nd for Melton. Then you trade Kyle for Monte Morris, trade Wendell into space, and sign a buyout SF/PF.

Rotation
Mike/Ant/Jaden/Karl/Rudy
Morris/Melton/NAW/NAZ
JMAC/Minott/Miller,

Plus two buyout guys to slot in where you want them.

Does Philly swap expiring contracts just to pick up a 2nd rounder?

Or are they more likely to want to keep his Bird Rights?

Depends on if they like Shake. If they do, then they may be willing. If not, they keep Melton or move him for more second round assets.

[BlacJacMac]

I like Suggs, but I don’t see him as a PG at all.

I’d worry about an Ant/Suggs backcourt really bogging things down.

[winforlose]

Towns, Milton, Moore for Suggs, Isaac, WCJ, 2025 ORL FRP, 2026 ORL FRP, two SRPs.

Why for ORL: they form a very dangerous five-out ready frontcourt Towns-Banchero-Wagner, Suggs and WCJ can be replaced with Black, Mo Wagner and Bitadze. Isaac is not reliable enough to be in long term plans. ORL can afford Towns contract, because of rookie contracts of Wagner and Banchero.

Why for MIN:

1) they unload Towns massive contract and get manageable, tradable contracts and picks to operate in future.

- in 2024-25 Isaac has 17.4 mil non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 1/10/25
- WCJ has descending contract 12 mil in 2024-25, 11 mil in 2025-26

2) they get future starting PG in Suggs, hometown kid, already a tough, physical, defensive minded specialist who is shooting 45% FG, 39% 3PT

3) they get two FRPs, two SRPs to operate in trades

In this scenario I still think we can win one playoff series, but it will be definitely a challenge for coaching staff to replace Towns with Reid/Anderson/Isaac production. But I think what we lose in offensive production in starting unit, we can compensate by Suggs defense and shooting in second unit.

Gobert/WCJ/Reid + Garza
Reid/Isaac/Anderson + Minott
McDaniels/Anderson/TBJ + Miller
Edwards/NAW/TBJ
Conley/Suggs/McLaughlin + Nix

But the most interesting part begins next season:

if my calculation are correct then if we let Isaac go and re-sign Conely (30 mil/2yrs) and McLaughlin (vetmin) we are 7.8 mil below tax line, sign FRP and SRP:

Gobert/WCJ/Reid
Reid/Minott/Miller
McDaniels/TBJ/???
Edwards/NAW/???
Conley/Suggs/McLaughlin

Here TC will have flexibility to resign Anderson, or keep Isaaс and trade later, resign NAW. In this scenario we will still need a shooter, but I like how consistent our identity will be on defensive end, while we will keep Gobert/Reid/McDaniels/Edwards/Conley/NAW core for two years together. X-factor here is Miller if he can provide an upgrade to our bench unit

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Feels like a sell low on Towns and a step backwards on the season.