Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[shrink]

If we trade away or waive KDB’s $2.65 mil contract, then we keep Dozier, so his $1 mil guarantee becomes a standard $2.09.

Here’s the taxable payroll for the three options.

1. Waive KBD $4.74 mil, ($2.65 dead money)
2. Waive Dozier. $3.65 mil, ($1 mil dead money)
3. Trade KBD with 2nd: $2.09 mil, ($0 dead money)

I suppose with the lux taxes the owner would have to pay on the $1.55 mil difference (between #2 and #3), it might be worth a 2nd. But the owners would have to really care more about those lux taxes more than losing one of our few remaining 2nds.

The Wolves luxury tax level is at least $4.25 per dollar of salary and is likely $4.75. I don't quite understand where the figures you reference are coming from, could you explain in a bit more detail?

This is taxable payroll, and does not include additional lux taxes.

The most recent CBA changed the boundaries (not every $5 mil any more) and rates for lux taxes, and I don’t know of a good site to see what those new rates are. I always used our boy Larry Coon’s numbers before when calculating taxes by hand, but those are based on the previous CBA

[KGdaBom]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/277713/Keita-Bates-Diop-Appears-To-Be-Odd-Man-Out-For-Timberwolves-Roster

I was hoping KBD would be gone, but only if we can trade him. If not cut Dozier instead.

[winforlose]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/277713/Keita-Bates-Diop-Appears-To-Be-Odd-Man-Out-For-Timberwolves-Roster

I was hoping KBD would be gone, but only if we can trade him. If not cut Dozier instead.

Dozier is so buried on the depth chart keeping him doesn’t even make logical sense. KBD is buried too, but at least he could see some use as an emergency stretch 5 (or allowing someone else to play stretch 5.) Dozier must have something on TC for this to even be a discussion.

[younggunsmn]

If we trade away or waive KDB’s $2.65 mil contract, then we keep Dozier, so his $1 mil guarantee becomes a standard $2.09.

Here’s the taxable payroll for the three options.

1. Waive KBD $4.74 mil, ($2.65 dead money)
2. Waive Dozier. $3.65 mil, ($1 mil dead money)
3. Trade KBD with 2nd: $2.09 mil, ($0 dead money)

I suppose with the lux taxes the owner would have to pay on the $1.55 mil difference (between #2 and #3), it might be worth a 2nd. But the owners would have to really care more about those lux taxes more than losing one of our few remaining 2nds.

Copying over from the Capology thread:
10/20 Luxury Tax Update before final roster decision between KBD/Dozier.

According to Spotrac we are 32,714,447 over the tax line.
This includes paying tax on Julius Randle's trade kicker, which was paid by NY but we get charged tax for apparently.
Luxury Tax Calculations on 32,714,447

First 5.168 million 1.5/1: 7,752,000
2nd 5.168 million 1.75/1: 9.044,000
3rd 5.168 million 2.50/1: 12,920,000
4th 5.168 million 3.25/1: 16,796,000
5th 5.168 million 3.75/1: 19,380,000
6th 5.168 million 4.25/1: 21,964,000
Remaining 1,706,447 @4.75/1: 8,105,623

Total Tax Payments: 95,293,673

Total Outlay Salary + Luxury Taxes:
295,051,653

Dumping KBD's salary on another team would save us 12,135,460 in luxury tax (plus 2,654,644 in salary).
Waiving PJ Dozier, while not trading KBD, would save us 5,165,715 in luxury tax (plus 1,087,519 in salary).
Dumping KBD onto another team, plus waiving PJ Dozier, would save us 16,757,415 in luxury tax (plus 3,741,163 in salary).

Keeping in mind we could keep PJ Dozier on the roster until he earned his 1 million guarantee (until early January essentially) and then waive him, since his guarantee is already a sunk cost.

We only need to fill 14 roster spots, so we could waive both and keep a spot open.
However, only waiving Dozier saves us any money.

[Klomp]

It's wild that going into cutdown day (today, 4 pm Central I believe), we are the only team left with more than 15 standard contracts on the payroll.

Time for Tim to host another Master's class....

[NebWolvesFan]

It's wild that going into cutdown day (today, 4 pm Central I believe), we are the only team left with more than 15 standard contracts on the payroll.

Time for Tim to host another Master's class....

I'm sure the front office/ownership is deciding upon cutting Keita and paying him or adding a second-round pick to trade him - like they did with WMJ. I think they will end up just cutting him. If there was a deal in which Minnesota could move him and not give up draft compensation, I think they move would have been made already. Although, I could see Glen being testy about paying salary/tax on a player not on the roster.

[winforlose]

It's wild that going into cutdown day (today, 4 pm Central I believe), we are the only team left with more than 15 standard contracts on the payroll.

Time for Tim to host another Master's class....

I'm sure the front office/ownership is deciding upon cutting Keita and paying him or adding a second-round pick to trade him - like they did with WMJ. I think they will end up just cutting him. If there was a deal in which Minnesota could move him and not give up draft compensation, I think they move would have been made already. Although, I could see Glen being testy about paying salary/tax on a player not on the roster.

Keep Keita, Cut Dozier. KBD is an NBA player, PJD is not.

[Domejandro]

I think that Minnesota is going to trade a Second Round Draft Pick to get off of Keita Bates-Diop's guaranteed minimum salary for this season. My assumption is that Tim Connelly is hunting to see if a team will accept a protected second or a second round pick swap, but in reality, using a second to dump Keita saves a ton of money. They may just waive P.J. Dozier and eat a couple million ($500k + tax), but my expectation is that a dump is imminent.

Feeling very confident in my prediction from a few days ago. Just makes sense.

Honestly, the rule change disallowing Second-Apron teams from trading cash was a super bizarre change. Artificially restricting teams from reducing salary is contradictory to the entire rest of newly implemented rules.

[winforlose]

I think that Minnesota is going to trade a Second Round Draft Pick to get off of Keita Bates-Diop's guaranteed minimum salary for this season. My assumption is that Tim Connelly is hunting to see if a team will accept a protected second or a second round pick swap, but in reality, using a second to dump Keita saves a ton of money. They may just waive P.J. Dozier and eat a couple million ($500k + tax), but my expectation is that a dump is imminent.

Feeling very confident in my prediction from a few days ago. Just makes sense.

Honestly, the rule change disallowing Second-Apron teams from trading cash was a super bizarre change. Artificially restricting teams from reducing salary is contradictory to the entire rest of newly implemented rules.

The goal is to prevent teams from buying assets. But I agree it should have been written to allow reduction of salary rather than making it harder to do so.

[shrink]

Honestly, the rule change disallowing Second-Apron teams from trading cash was a super bizarre change. Artificially restricting teams from reducing salary is contradictory to the entire rest of newly implemented rules.

The goal is to prevent teams from buying assets. But I agree it should have been written to allow reduction of salary rather than making it harder to do so.

I agree with you both. Wouldn’t you think when you have such a restrictive rule as “apron teams can’t add salary in a trade” and hard caps, that restricting cash is unnecessary? The league’s goal isn’t supposed to be to keep teams from getting better, it’s to prevent adding salary to already high payrolls. The majority of deals involved in cash inclusion are usually to reduce salary already. This just felt like a penalty they threw in to try to make the apron more painful, but it works against the goals of the apron.

[Biff Cooper]

It's wild that going into cutdown day (today, 4 pm Central I believe), we are the only team left with more than 15 standard contracts on the payroll.

Time for Tim to host another Master's class....

I'm sure the front office/ownership is deciding upon cutting Keita and paying him or adding a second-round pick to trade him - like they did with WMJ. I think they will end up just cutting him. If there was a deal in which Minnesota could move him and not give up draft compensation, I think they move would have been made already. Although, I could see Glen being testy about paying salary/tax on a player not on the roster.

Keep Keita, Cut Dozier. KBD is an NBA player, PJD is not.

Where do you get that PJ is not an NBA player? He has been a 20 mpg player for NBA playoff teams as short as 3 seasons ago.

[winforlose]

I'm sure the front office/ownership is deciding upon cutting Keita and paying him or adding a second-round pick to trade him - like they did with WMJ. I think they will end up just cutting him. If there was a deal in which Minnesota could move him and not give up draft compensation, I think they move would have been made already. Although, I could see Glen being testy about paying salary/tax on a player not on the roster.

Keep Keita, Cut Dozier. KBD is an NBA player, PJD is not.

Where do you get that PJ is not an NBA player? He has been a 20 mpg player for NBA playoff teams as short as 3 seasons ago.

My sense is TC doesn’t want to cut PJ because he fears like last year, PJ cannot find another team to sign him. KBD likely would but as a standard minimum instead of the extra 600k in year 2. Thus KBD has legit NBA interest and is an NBA player, whereas PJ doesn’t outside the personal connection and is therefore not an NBA player anymore.

[Biff Cooper]

I don't think either of them have a whole lot of legit NBA interest. I'm sure that KBD looked around before picking up his player option, and decided it was his best option. That doesn't mean that either of them are not NBA players. Most teams are currently interested in having younger guys at the end of the bench than journeymen. I think Connelly trusts DJ more and likes having a defensively strong backup PG more on the roster than he does another SF.

[BlacJacMac]

I'm sure the front office/ownership is deciding upon cutting Keita and paying him or adding a second-round pick to trade him - like they did with WMJ. I think they will end up just cutting him. If there was a deal in which Minnesota could move him and not give up draft compensation, I think they move would have been made already. Although, I could see Glen being testy about paying salary/tax on a player not on the roster.

Keep Keita, Cut Dozier. KBD is an NBA player, PJD is not.

Where do you get that PJ is not an NBA player? He has been a 20 mpg player for NBA playoff teams as short as 3 seasons ago.

Because he was kind of terrible and that team was devastated by injuries.

[Klomp]

Well, they waived Keita. Boring.

[wolves_89]

I'm surprised that the Wolves ate KBD's salary+luxury tax. I thought they would use a 2nd to dump him and save a decent amount of payroll. It makes me wonder if the inability to send cash is actually important, since the Kings were able to dump Jalen McDaniels bigger salary for only a 2nd plus cash.

[shrink]

Of the three options, (waive Dozier, trade KDB + 2nd, waive KDB), I thought waiving KDB was the least likely.

Can’t call ownership cheap on this one. I’d have instructed Connelly to save me the $15 mil vs keeping a 2nd.

[shrink]

I don't think either of them have a whole lot of legit NBA interest. I'm sure that KBD looked around before picking up his player option, and decided it was his best option.

KDB picked it up June 24th, before free agency. I’m sure he realized he wasn’t a priority for teams, and teams fill up their other roster spots before looking for a guy like him, so this was the safest course of action.

That doesn't mean that either of them are not NBA players. Most teams are currently interested in having younger guys at the end of the bench than journeymen.

I agree, and that’s been my biggest takeaway from this. I thought every team had a couple capable vets on the end of their bench, but these days it looks like teams would rather have kids with potential, who are sometimes ever cheaper. I think having three two-way deals let’s GMs gamble more that somebody will be able to play competent basketball, and maybe a young player will emerge on a cheap deal.

[Klomp]

Of the three options, (waive Dozier, trade KDB + 2nd, waive KDB), I thought waiving KDB was the least likely.

Can’t call ownership cheap on this one. I’d have instructed Connelly to save me the $10 mil vs keeping a 2nd.

Random hypothetical that might apply....how do stretched contracts affect the luxury tax and second apron?

[shrink]

Of the three options, (waive Dozier, trade KDB + 2nd, waive KDB), I thought waiving KDB was the least likely.

Can’t call ownership cheap on this one. I’d have instructed Connelly to save me the $15 mil vs keeping a 2nd.

Random hypothetical that might apply....how do stretched contracts affect the luxury tax and second apron?

They affect both. If we stretched his deal at $2.65, it’d be about $900,000 each year for three years, and only cost Taylor $5 mil (still more than I think a 2nd is worth). But the overall $15 mil would likely be much less, since so much of it is the extremely high tax rate we are in this year. I’m no fan of dead money, but this sounds like the perfect time to stretch a waived player.