Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[younggunsmn]

Of the three options, (waive Dozier, trade KDB + 2nd, waive KDB), I thought waiving KDB was the least likely.

Can’t call ownership cheap on this one. I’d have instructed Connelly to save me the $15 mil vs keeping a 2nd.

Random hypothetical that might apply....how do stretched contracts affect the luxury tax and second apron?

They affect both. If we stretched his deal at $2.65, it’d be about $900,000 each year for three years, and only cost Taylor $5 mil (still more than I think a 2nd is worth). But the overall $15 mil would likely be much less, since so much of it is the extremely high tax rate we are in this year. I’m no fan of dead money, but this sounds like the perfect time to stretch a waived player.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/08/hoops-rumors-glossary-stretch-provision-3.html

The ability to use the stretch provision for money in the current year (and for any player in the final year of his contract) expires on September 1st. So we couldn't use it on KBD.

But say we could. Saves us ~10 million this year. Great.
However for the next 2 years, we have 900k less wiggle room under the tax or any tax aprons.
That might not sound like a lot, but it could be a big deal when you are trying to make so many expensive pieces fit.
Also, there is the chance we are paying repeater penalties in those years and that 900k is taxed higher than the 4.75 rate we would pay on it if we had taken the hit this year.

[younggunsmn]

I'm glad (and a bit surprised considering the money involved) we didn't attach a 2nd to move KBD.
The only attractive moveable one we have is the Utah 2025 2nd.
We can't trade the '29 (owed to Utah if our 1st doesn't convey that year).
Next best is 2031 better of MN/GS.
Cupboard is pretty bare.

I imagine we cut Dozier before the date in January when we have to guarantee him for the entire year, then use that open roster spot for 10 day contracts for any injuries or a buyout player after the deadline (we can still sign buyout players but they have to make less than the MLE).

I still don't get the Dozier signing he's super redundant with 2 bench players we already have in NAW and Clark who are also defensive oriented wings with highly limited offensive skillsets.
I Imagine Connelly wanted to make good on the promise he made to get Dozier to sign here.
He likely turned down offers in Europe to sign here and those teams have their rosters filled by now.
He's going to get a lot less playing time here (if any at all) than he would have had in europe, but its something to put on his resume to keep him relevant.
Maybe Connelly sees him as a cheap low minute bench replacement for NAW if he walks next year or we trade him.
But NAW is also a Finch favorite.

Choosing to cut KBD or Dozier, it really didn't make any difference moneywise.

[younggunsmn]

Honestly, the rule change disallowing Second-Apron teams from trading cash was a super bizarre change. Artificially restricting teams from reducing salary is contradictory to the entire rest of newly implemented rules.

The goal is to prevent teams from buying assets. But I agree it should have been written to allow reduction of salary rather than making it harder to do so.

I agree with you both. Wouldn’t you think when you have such a restrictive rule as “apron teams can’t add salary in a trade” and hard caps, that restricting cash is unnecessary? The league’s goal isn’t supposed to be to keep teams from getting better, it’s to prevent adding salary to already high payrolls. The majority of deals involved in cash inclusion are usually to reduce salary already. This just felt like a penalty they threw in to try to make the apron more painful, but it works against the goals of the apron.

I disagree strongly. The point of the apron restrictions is to be so punitive that you don't want to go over them in the first place.
They want them to serve as "Soft Hardcaps" if that makes any sense.
If the goal is spending parity (which it is) the pain (and loss of options) is a feature, not a bug.

Not letting teams send out cash to get other teams to eat their salaries (multiplied for taxes) serves that purpose.
We shouldn't be able to send the Spurs 5 million to save 14.8 million dollars on a 2.7 million dollar contract.
It's subverting the rules.
You make your bed, you lie in it.
If it were the Warriors, Clippers, Knicks or Lakers doing it, we would all feel that way.
It's just that now that shoe is on our foot for the first time.

All the trade restrictions above the 2nd apron also serve that purpose (and they need to close the sign and trade loophole the knicks used to acquire KAT).

[Biff Cooper]

I'd assume that if the price to trade KBD was only 1 second round pick that we would have done it. I'm guessing most of the teams did not want to give up on one of the 15 guys on their roster to take him on, and the couple of teams that did have an open roster spot either were in a cap situation where it hurt them to make the trade, or did not see enough of a benefit in a single second round pick to have to pay KBD the amount of his salary.

[winforlose]

I don’t know why when the deal was worked out we had to have 16 guys. Seems like the kinda thing that TC should have accounted for. Then again, maybe it just wasn’t avoidable with 2nd apron rules.

[KGdaBom]

Waiving KBD instead of Dozier makes zero sense to me.

[shrink]

Santi Aldama and DayRon Sharpe didn’t sign rookie extensions today, which might make them more available to trade for.

[shrink]

I don’t know why when the deal was worked out we had to have 16 guys. Seems like the kinda thing that TC should have accounted for. Then again, maybe it just wasn’t avoidable with 2nd apron rules.

It’s hard to know what each team demanded, in order to agree to do the trade. We KNOW the Knicks needed to trade away 4 additional contracts to make the deal legal, and they probably didn’t care whether MIN took them or CHA did.

We don’t know if CHA would have walked away from the deal if they had to eat all four.

We don’t know if we said we’d take the most expensive one, if NYK threw in that 1st rounder.

We don’t know if Tim Connelly thought he could trade KBD, or Dozier, or some other player, and that deal never reached completion.

In the end, we have to look at the total deal (including the costs to waive KDB), and decide if the total deal was worthwhile. It’s frustrating that a deal didn’t get done, but it looks like Glen Taylor, and not the team, is the guy left paying the price.

[TimberKat]

Wolves just released KDB, so does his full salary count towards tax?

[thinktank]

PJ is a better defender and passer.

I'm more than fine with it.

[KGdaBom]

Wolves just released KDB, so does his full salary count towards tax?

KBD

[KGdaBom]

Wolves just released KDB, so does his full salary count towards tax?

Yes

[Klomp]

Wolves just released KDB, so does his full salary count towards tax?

KBD

I'm glad he was waived, if only so we didn't have to deal with this all season.

[shrink]

Wolves just released KDB, so does his full salary count towards tax?

KBD

I'm glad he was waived, if only so we didn't have to deal with this all season.

Oh, you guys would have gotten used to me doing it after my 50th or 60th time.

EDIT: I just noticed I did it in my last post!

[younggunsmn]

IMHO most teams under the lux would have jumped at the chance to take on 2.65 million in dead salary in order to get a decent future 2nd round pick (say the 2025 UTAH pick), and not using a pick to salary dump KBD was our choice.

Kudos to ownership for not forcing TC to do that and eating essentially a 15 million dollar loss because we had to take a guy as a throw in to make a trade work.

We already essentially did that once when we traded the 40th pick in the june draft to dump Wendell Moore, picking up yet more cash and a future Memphis 2nd round pick that is 50/50 to convey (top 50 protected) in a couple of further tradedowns.
That series of trades ended up saving us about 15 million plus whatever cash we picked up.

In the end Wendell Moore jr cost us the 29th pick in the draft plus 3 future 2nd round picks (2024#40, 2025 MN, 2027 MN in the trade up).

[KGdaBom]

KBD

I'm glad he was waived, if only so we didn't have to deal with this all season.

Oh, you guys would have gotten used to me doing it after my 50th or 60th time.

EDIT: I just noticed I did it in my last post!

I'm trying to figure out the psychology behind people getting it wrong over and over and over again.

[winforlose]

I'm glad he was waived, if only so we didn't have to deal with this all season.

Oh, you guys would have gotten used to me doing it after my 50th or 60th time.

EDIT: I just noticed I did it in my last post!

I'm trying to figure out the psychology behind people getting it wrong over and over and over again.

Your brain has muscle memory. The initial mistake becomes learned behavior and eventually habit. You need to catch it early or break the habit.

[shrink]

Oh, you guys would have gotten used to me doing it after my 50th or 60th time.

EDIT: I just noticed I did it in my last post!

I'm trying to figure out the psychology behind people getting it wrong over and over and over again.

Your brain has muscle memory. The initial mistake becomes learned behavior and eventually habit. You need to catch it early or break the habit.

For me, it’s the opposite of the hot hand. It’s the cold brain.

[KGdaBom]

I'm trying to figure out the psychology behind people getting it wrong over and over and over again.

Your brain has muscle memory. The initial mistake becomes learned behavior and eventually habit. You need to catch it early or break the habit.

For me, it’s the opposite of the hot hand. It’s the cold brain.

[minimus]

Would you trade Randle and DET 1st for Robert Williams III and Deni Avdija? Avdija has descending contract only 12 mil in 2027-28, 15.6 mil this season. Pair it with DDV contract and this move might give TC a lot of creativity moving forward. Like re-signing both Reid and NAW to reasonable contracts. Also I assume that with high probability Randle will test FA market. So downgrading in talent by bringing Avdija while upgrading depth might be a workaround. POR might see additional value in re-signing Randle, although I am not sure.

Also I view Williams as expiring contract next season, can't really rely on him because he is an injury prone big man. But IF Williams can stay healthy, it will significantly boost our frontcourt rotation, he also is a odd man in POR since they have Klingan and Ayton.

Gobert/Williams/Garza
Avdija/Reid/Minott/Miller
MCD/Ingles/TJ
Edwards/NAW/DDV + Clark
Conley/DDV/Dillingham + Nix

I like Avdija a LOT because I think playing for bad team kind of overshadowed his high IQ, competitiveness and toughness. He is not the most athletic, not the most talented, but he is a hard worker, has dog mentality.