Trade Talk (Part 17): Early Offseason Planning

[Klomp]

I think you are dismissing too many options based on their current situation. Wolves coaches and brass need to decide what would player ______ bring to ‘our’ roster. How do they fit our system, fill our needs, supplement our star (Edwards), and other variables that no doubt are unique to said evaluation.

Also, even with the players you listed, Wolves (and fans) need to get comfortable with fact that in their price point - no such thing as a perfect PG upgrade. Wolves hope this imperfect PG available from another teams’s roster, that when he becomes a Wolf, becomes more perfect to them. But every player on their shopping list will have defects.

I think this is an excellent point, and I think it's also important to remember the 'do right by Julius' that NebWolvesFan mentioned, which I absolutely cosign.

Trades are always about what it means for your team, not what a player is doing where they are at. Julius was 100% a black hole low post player, but Finch knew he could transform him into an attacker from the perimeter. Patrick Beverley's 'schtick' was wearing off around the league, but Gersson Rosas rightfully identified that his leadership would give the franchise a jolt. Mike Conley was identified for his leadership and true point guard skill set.

I think this is also important to remember for where the trade value is at for everyone on the roster, even someone like Rob Dillingham. We see his value in the toilet, but I think a younger, developing roster that likes to push the tempo would be a place where he can thrive. Franchises that need a little backcourt boost but aren't as reliant on defense. His hometown Hornets will always come to mind, even with their deeper guard depth, because they like to throw out a lot of perimeter-heavy lineups. Many of the young teams without a shored-up PG position could find him useful, such as maybe a Utah.

[BlacJacMac]

I still think 2023-24 was a massive outlier as he regressed to the mean last year.

2021-22: 36/21/78
2022-23: 42/33/72
2023-24: 47/40/76
2024-25: 41/31/88

And even in his breakout 23-24 year, he fell on his face in the Playoffs. 7 Games: 40/29/77

Patrick Beverley was 40/34/72 in Minnesota. Sign me up for a PatBev-like impact! It's not just about offense for Suggs, as it is for most of those others.

I agree. If Suggs and McDaniels could provide consistent shooting improvement from their young age into their prime, Edwards would be surrounded by perfect fitting roster components. A roster built to best OKC (which where Wolves sit - should be their only focus….how to push past WCF ceiling.)

Or, if you look at last year, you surround Ant with 4 guys shooting 34% or less from 3...

[BlacJacMac]

Honestly if Minnesota does a trade this year - it's involving Randle. I feel like once Naz signed his extension he became the PF in waiting. I do feel like Randle will be gone by the start of the 26-27 season. TC isn't sending him to a dumpster fire. He will do right by Julius.

This.

Randle is better than Reid. But in a salary cap league with limited assets to improve the roster - Randle fits the bill as trade bait.

Wolves need to keep an eye on PGs from teams that could change course and decide to tank.

Hornets: Ball
Grizzlies: Morant (not in Wolves price point and not sure a fit in MN but could be part of bigger deal)
Bulls: Giddey
Pacers: Nembhard (doubt they tank or even consider trading him…but monitor)
Spurs: Fox
76ers: Maxey/McCain (only have a top 3 protection on own pick but guard deep team could look for a change up)
Magic: Suggs (I still like him most for the price Wolves actually have to pay - he isn’t a true PG (which Wolves don’t ‘need’) but love his D and shooting if he can keep that improving)

Wolves need a team desiring Randle. Take those assets and send to team with a PG upgrade. Reid backfills some of Randle - and hope is a more complete roster is a better roster.

Putting aside the personal stuff, Giddey is a bad fit. The same thing that drove him out of OKC will drive him out of any contender. In this league if you cannot hit a 3 you better be a big or the only non shooter. Rudy and Joan are the future of the C position in Minnesota and neither can hit a 3. Suggs inconsistency on offense creates the same problem. Fox is overpaid relative to what he offers you. Lamelo is interesting if he can stay healthy, but I doubt we get him. Coby White or DJM are the only impact players in our price range. Everyone else is a patch with the hope that we get lucky either with a draft pick or internal development of Dilly.

WIth Giddey, like Suggs, you would have to be betting on his one good season from 3 becoming the norm.

I have a little more faith in Giddey because he's shot 46% or better overall each of the past 3 years. And his 3PT% has increased every year. 26, 33, 34, 38.

His passing and rebounding would be huge pluses for our team. I'd say even more than the defense Suggs brings.

The clear downside is it means making Ant and/or Jaden the primary POA defender as Giddey would have to be hidden on the lesser scoring wing of our opponent.

[BlacJacMac]

Magic: Suggs (I still like him most for the price Wolves actually have to pay - he isn’t a true PG (which Wolves don’t ‘need’) but love his D and shooting if he can keep that improving)

I still think 2023-24 was a massive outlier as he regressed to the mean last year.

2021-22: 36/21/78
2022-23: 42/33/72
2023-24: 47/40/76
2024-25: 41/31/88

And even in his breakout 23-24 year, he fell on his face in the Playoffs. 7 Games: 40/29/77

Patrick Beverley was 40/34/72 in Minnesota. Sign me up for a PatBev-like impact! It's not just about offense for Suggs, as it is for most of those others.

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

[Klomp]

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

[Wolveswin]

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

This.

Wolves are not getting a player without defect. The no-defect PG is out of Wolves price range.

[BlacJacMac]

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

He's owed 5 years and 150M.

Fortunately its descending, but its only a "bargain" if his new normal is equal to his one good year out of 4.

Its a massive gamble, because if he has another typical Suggs year, he becomes nearly untradable.

[winforlose]

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

What is the specific offer for Suggs. He makes 35 this year and while we can aggregate, we would be hard capped after. If the trade was Randle and Dilly I would probably pass just because Suggs cannot pick up the scoring load that Randle leaves behind. Suggs is at best a 3 and D PG, but his ratios have been bad AST/TO in all 4 years. If Suggs cost 10-15 I would probably consider DDV and Dilly for him, but sadly he is too expensive.

[Klomp]

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

He's owed 5 years and 150M.

Fortunately its descending, but its only a "bargain" if his new normal is equal to his one good year out of 4.

Its a massive gamble, because if he has another typical Suggs year, he becomes nearly untradable.

I'm not talking about his contract. I am talking about the cost required to acquire him.

Hypothetically, if someone would normally cost a "Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and Rob Dillingham" trade return but now you could get him for just Julius Randle, wouldn't that be a buy-low opportunity? That's the kind of value we're talking about.

Orlando's asking price is substantially lower now than it would be if you were talking about a 40% 3-point shooter who averages 8 assists per game and all-league defense. That's the demands checklist many of you are placing on Suggs and the PG acquisition list as a whole. Not only is that extremely unrealistic, but it is also crazy expensive to get all of that in a trade package. The above outgoing trade package wouldn't come close to good enough.

[Klomp]

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

What is the specific offer for Suggs. He makes 35 this year and while we can aggregate, we would be hard capped after. If the trade was Randle and Dilly I would probably pass just because Suggs cannot pick up the scoring load that Randle leaves behind. Suggs is at best a 3 and D PG, but his ratios have been bad AST/TO in all 4 years. If Suggs cost 10-15 I would probably consider DDV and Dilly for him, but sadly he is too expensive.

When we talk about the offense humming at its best, Randle was averaging 18 ppg. Last year, Suggs averaged 16 ppg. Not exactly an insurmountable difference. You also have Naz Reid's shift to the starting lineup that would make up some of the difference just by likely playing an extra 5 minutes per game

Also, I'm pretty sure we are effectively hard-capped already, so this trade wouldn't really change that situation.

[winforlose]

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

He's owed 5 years and 150M.

Fortunately its descending, but its only a "bargain" if his new normal is equal to his one good year out of 4.

Its a massive gamble, because if he has another typical Suggs year, he becomes nearly untradable.

I'm not talking about his contract. I am talking about the cost required to acquire him.

Hypothetically, if someone would normally cost a "Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and Rob Dillingham" trade return but now you could get him for just Julius Randle, wouldn't that be a buy-low opportunity? That's the kind of value we're talking about.

Orlando's asking price is substantially lower now than it would be if you were talking about a 40% 3-point shooter who averages 8 assists per game and all-league defense. That's the demands checklist many of you are placing on Suggs and the PG acquisition list as a whole. Not only is that extremely unrealistic, but it is also crazy expensive to get all of that in a trade package. The above outgoing trade package wouldn't come close to good enough.

Suggs is more expensive than Randle which means we need to add real money to him. That means Dilly. Now you might think Dilly has no trade value by himself, but he is still young enough that he might develop. But for the sake of this conversation let’s focus on Randle. Randle is our #2 option at the moment, Suggs would be at best #3 behind Ant and Naz. What is the value of plugging in Suggs if he is not a high end playmaker and not a consistent scorer? It’s not that he cannot have flaws, it’s that his strengths must meet our criteria. Just because you can trade for him does not mean you should.

[Klomp]

Suggs is more expensive than Randle which means we need to add real money to him. That means Dilly. Now you might think Dilly has no trade value by himself, but he is still young enough that he might develop. But for the sake of this conversation let’s focus on Randle. Randle is our #2 option at the moment, Suggs would be at best #3 behind Ant and Naz. What is the value of plugging in Suggs if he is not a high end playmaker and not a consistent scorer? It’s not that he cannot have flaws, it’s that his strengths must meet our criteria. Just because you can trade for him does not mean you should.

The team has been built on a defensive identity. That is Suggs' strongest skill. The NBA sees him on a Jaden McDaniels level of defense or even better, receiving considerably more all-defense votes than Jaden in 2023-24. Adding an all-defense player to an organization built on a defensive identity is the very definition of "his strengths must meet our criteria", as you put it.

Yes, Julius and Rob have "value" but they are both net neutral at best when it comes to the team's defensive identity.

[BlacJacMac]

He's owed 5 years and 150M.

Fortunately its descending, but its only a "bargain" if his new normal is equal to his one good year out of 4.

Its a massive gamble, because if he has another typical Suggs year, he becomes nearly untradable.

I'm not talking about his contract. I am talking about the cost required to acquire him.

Hypothetically, if someone would normally cost a "Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and Rob Dillingham" trade return but now you could get him for just Julius Randle, wouldn't that be a buy-low opportunity? That's the kind of value we're talking about.

Orlando's asking price is substantially lower now than it would be if you were talking about a 40% 3-point shooter who averages 8 assists per game and all-league defense. That's the demands checklist many of you are placing on Suggs and the PG acquisition list as a whole. Not only is that extremely unrealistic, but it is also crazy expensive to get all of that in a trade package. The above outgoing trade package wouldn't come close to good enough.

Suggs is more expensive than Randle which means we need to add real money to him. That means Dilly. Now you might think Dilly has no trade value by himself, but he is still young enough that he might develop. But for the sake of this conversation let’s focus on Randle. Randle is our #2 option at the moment, Suggs would be at best #3 behind Ant and Naz. What is the value of plugging in Suggs if he is not a high end playmaker and not a consistent scorer? It’s not that he cannot have flaws, it’s that his strengths must meet our criteria. Just because you can trade for him does not mean you should.

Exactly. I get the idea of buying low, but there is also "buying irresponsibly".

Suggs has been a below average player in 3 of his 4 years. His only constant is defense. And that's a great skill - especially at his level! But its not a 30M AAV skill.

[BlacJacMac]

Suggs is more expensive than Randle which means we need to add real money to him. That means Dilly. Now you might think Dilly has no trade value by himself, but he is still young enough that he might develop. But for the sake of this conversation let’s focus on Randle. Randle is our #2 option at the moment, Suggs would be at best #3 behind Ant and Naz. What is the value of plugging in Suggs if he is not a high end playmaker and not a consistent scorer? It’s not that he cannot have flaws, it’s that his strengths must meet our criteria. Just because you can trade for him does not mean you should.

The team has been built on a defensive identity. That is Suggs' strongest skill. The NBA sees him on a Jaden McDaniels level of defense or even better, receiving considerably more all-defense votes than Jaden in 2023-24. Adding an all-defense player to an organization built on a defensive identity is the very definition of "his strengths must meet our criteria", as you put it.

Yes, Julius and Rob have "value" but they are both net neutral at best when it comes to the team's defensive identity.

But that identity is not enough.

2 years ago, we were far and away the best defensive team in the league. We didn't just need more perimeter defense to get over the top. We needed more offensive creation and fewer turnovers. Suggs gives us neither.

You can't just keep overloading your strengths in the hopes of masking your weaknesses.

[Klomp]

Suggs has been a below average player in 3 of his 4 years. His only constant is defense. And that's a great skill - especially at his level! But its not a 30M AAV skill.

So how do you feel about Jaden McDaniels, with defense being his only constant skill at $26M AAV? Is he an "irresponsible" contract? Is he a negative on the cap sheet?

Yes, there is a $4M difference. Like it or not, that is partly the difference in expecting upside potential growth from a 28th overall pick compared to a 5th overall pick.

[Klomp]

But that identity is not enough.

2 years ago, we were far and away the best defensive team in the league. We didn't just need more perimeter defense to get over the top. We needed more offensive creation and fewer turnovers. Suggs gives us neither.

You can't just keep overloading your strengths in the hopes of masking your weaknesses.

Every year is a new year.

Your mindset would have led to the blowing up of the Indiana Pacers of two years ago, because their identity was not enough to beat the Celtics and get to the Finals. I'm sorry, but I don't believe in building my franchise through the lens of a fear of failure. I don't want to completely change my identity of who I am because I am worried I might not be good enough. If it's not, it sucks but you go back to work again the next year and try to do better. Hone in on refining your identity, not completely scrap it.

[BlacJacMac]

Suggs has been a below average player in 3 of his 4 years. His only constant is defense. And that's a great skill - especially at his level! But its not a 30M AAV skill.

So how do you feel about Jaden McDaniels, with defense being his only constant skill at $26M AAV? Is he an "irresponsible" contract? Is he a negative on the cap sheet?

Yes, there is a $4M difference. Like it or not, that is partly the difference in expecting upside potential growth from a 28th overall pick compared to a 5th overall pick.

Jaden's 3-ball is inconsistent, but he's a career 48% shooter overall. Finch unfortunately likes to park him behind the arc, but he's shown a lot more offensive game than Suggs. He's not super crafty, but he's arguably our best mid-range shooter.

He's also a career 52/42/83 shooter through 27 Playoff games.

[Klomp]

Jaden's 3-ball is inconsistent, but he's a career 48% shooter overall. Finch unfortunately likes to park him behind the arc, but he's shown a lot more offensive game than Suggs. He's not super crafty, but he's arguably our best mid-range shooter.

He's also a career 52/42/83 shooter through 27 Playoff games.

And Josh Minott is a career 48% shooter while Anthony Edwards is a career 44% shooter. I guess we know who the better offensive talent is, right?!

[KGdaBom]

Suggs is also hurt all the time. He's played in 211 games while missing 117 (plus the Playoffs this year).

This presents a buy-low opportunity. He wouldn't normally be under possible consideration otherwise. I'd also add that the injury woes and the shooting struggles could be related. If he finds sustained health, he becomes a bargain! Not just fair value, but an absolute steal. Like when we realized after the fact how much more Conley still had in the tank, that trade went from fair value to highway robbery.

He's owed 5 years and 150M.

Fortunately its descending, but its only a "bargain" if his new normal is equal to his one good year out of 4.

Its a massive gamble, because if he has another typical Suggs year, he becomes nearly untradable.

I wouldn't touch him.

[KGdaBom]

Jaden's 3-ball is inconsistent, but he's a career 48% shooter overall. Finch unfortunately likes to park him behind the arc, but he's shown a lot more offensive game than Suggs. He's not super crafty, but he's arguably our best mid-range shooter.

He's also a career 52/42/83 shooter through 27 Playoff games.

And Josh Minott is a career 48% shooter while Anthony Edwards is a career 44% shooter. I guess we know who the better offensive talent is, right?!

Klomp I'm firmly in BlacJacMac's corner on this debate. Maybe that's evidence that we should do the trade.